Price Discovery Issues for Fed Cattle: What s the Future of the Cash Market or How Thin Is Too Thin?
|
|
- Jonas Jefferson
- 5 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 Price Discovery Issues for Fed Cattle: What s the Future of the Cash Market or How Thin Is Too Thin? Stephen R. Koontz Professor & extension economist Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics Colorado State University Stephen.Koontz@ColoState.Edu Des Moines, IA December, 2013 Percent 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 7/21/08 10/20/08 1/19/09 STEERS/HEIFERS SOLD BY TRANSACTION National Weekly Data Source: USDA-AMS Compiled by: Livestock Marketing Information Center 4/20/09 7/20/09 10/19/09 1/18/10 4/19/10 7/19/10 10/18/10 1/17/11 4/18/11 7/18/11 10/17/11 1/16/12 4/16/12 7/16/12 10/15/12 1/14/13 4/15/13 7/15/13 10/14/13 Grid Formula Forward Contract Series of charts with weekly data & history back to 7/
2 Definitions is the cash market there is bid and ask may be live weight or carcass weight or grid but there is price discovery. Formula is the price is discovered elsewhere may be plant average price or a USDA AMS regional price or a downstream price or a futures price but there is no price discovery. The terms of the formulas may be negotiated but prices are not. Forward contracts are transactions with >14 days before delivery. Packer owned are 100% packer own cattle. AMAs (Alternative Marketing Arrangements) and not Captive Supplies. Percent 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 7/21/08 10/20/08 1/19/09 STEERS/HEIFERS SOLD BY TRANSACTION Texas, Oklahoma & New Mexico Weekly Data Source: USDA-AMS Compiled by: Livestock Marketing Information Center 4/20/09 7/20/09 10/19/09 1/18/10 4/19/10 7/19/10 10/18/10 1/17/11 4/18/11 7/18/11 10/17/11 1/16/12 4/16/12 7/16/12 10/15/12 1/14/13 4/15/13 7/15/13 10/14/13 Grid Formula Forward Contract 2
3 Percent 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% STEERS/HEIFERS SOLD BY TRANSACTION Kansas Weekly Data Source: USDA-AMS Compiled by: Livestock Marketing Information Center 7/21/08 10/20/08 1/19/09 4/20/09 7/20/09 10/19/09 1/18/10 4/19/10 7/19/10 10/18/10 1/17/11 4/18/11 7/18/11 10/17/11 1/16/12 4/16/12 7/16/12 10/15/12 1/14/13 4/15/13 7/15/13 10/14/13 Grid Formula Forward Contract Percent 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 7/21/08 10/20/08 1/19/09 STEERS/HEIFERS SOLD BY TRANSACTION Nebraska Weekly Data Source: USDA-AMS Compiled by: Livestock Marketing Information Center 4/20/09 7/20/09 10/19/09 1/18/10 4/19/10 7/19/10 10/18/10 1/17/11 4/18/11 7/18/11 10/17/11 1/16/12 4/16/12 7/16/12 10/15/12 1/14/13 4/15/13 7/15/13 10/14/13 Grid Formula Forward Contract 3
4 Percent 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% HOGS SOLD BY TRANSACTION National, Weekly Data Source: USDA-AMS Compiled by: Livestock Marketing Information Center 7/21/08 10/20/08 1/19/09 4/20/09 7/20/09 10/19/09 1/18/10 4/19/10 7/19/10 10/18/10 1/17/11 4/18/11 7/18/11 10/17/11 1/16/12 4/16/12 7/16/12 10/15/12 1/14/13 4/15/13 7/15/13 10/14/13 Purchases Other Market Formula Swine or Pork Mkt Formula Other Purchase Packer Sold Packer Owned Percent 70% TOTAL CATTLE SOLD BY TRANSACTION Monthly 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% Grid Formula Forward Contract 0% Data Source: USDA-AMS Compiled by: Livestock Marketing Information Center Monthly data & beginning 4/
5 CATTLE SOLD ON A LIVE BASIS Monthly Percent 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% Grid Formula 30% 20% Forward Contract 10% 0% Data Source: USDA-AMS Compiled by: Livestock Marketing Information Center Percent 80% CATTLE SOLD ON A DRESSED BASIS Monthly 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% Grid Formula Forward Contract 0% Data Source: USDA-AMS Compiled by: Livestock Marketing Information Center 5
6 Incentives to be on a formula? Cattle management pens are marketed when they need to be marketed. Feedlot management personnel, mills, & systems. Capacity utilization low-90s for formula enterprises & high-70s & low-80s for cash market enterprises. Financing, partial ownership, & profit-sharing. One of the most expensive people in the feedyard enterprise is figuring how to get cattle to make money & is not trying to get more money out of the packer. Higher volumes, predictable volumes, & lower costs. Fewer personnel. Predictable program cattle volumes. A Comment or Idea on Markets Markets that become too expensive to use will not be used & will become less important. 6
7 Is this next? Example of Public Good Suppose a group of cow-calf producers do not have enough of their own land to graze all their animals but have access to common land. What happens to that common property? It will be over-grazed or over used. Same outcome occurs for open-access fisheries. Public goods are overused because each individual does not pay their specific full individual cost. There is no market solution to the problem. Solution requires collective action usually through government but an association of interested parties can work with authority to say who uses, provides & pays for the public good. 7
8 Price Discovery is a Public Good Cash market participants invest resources to negotiate & discover cash market prices. Formula operations save that investment & make use of the prices discovered by the cash market participants. It is exactly the grazing example it is the tragedy of the commons. Formula operations use the outcome of the investment by cash market operations without paying. Research is needed. This is not an it depends economist answer. We don t know. Objective information is needed to support the making of good decisions. There will not be a market solution and my evidence is hogs, dairy, fruits & vegetables Price Discovery Study: What will we learn? Is there evidence of a problem at current levels? Formula volumes impact price levels & variability? Can price reporting be improved using MPR information? For example, are there differences across marketing methods? If no can reporting be combined? What is the impact of the OMB confidentiality requirements? Will we have no price reporting for regions with two packers? What does the industry think & what to do next? Interviews. How thin do they think is too thin? What will they do next? 8
9 Price Discovery Study: What have we learned? Cash markets are not used because they are too disorderly Internalizing the problem: Profit sharing downstream integrating with packer. Integrating upstream securing calves based on forward contract or hedged fed cattle valuations. AMAs are used to avoid some risks in the cash market. Large operations said, I can t risk not having a significant number of animals sold at the end of the week Small operations said, I can t risk not having the packer show up and bid any given week So How Thin Is Too Thin? Make use of a statistical tool: Chebychev s Inequality Prob{-c (X n µ) c} 1 (σ 2 /nc 2 ) Prob is the probability (need to choose) c is the error in price (need to choose) X n is the mean reported price (measure) µ is the underlying market price (unknown) σ 2 is the variance of reported price (measure) n is the number of trades Solve for n = (σ 2 /{1 Prob}c 2 ) so given X n, σ 2, c & Prob 9
10 So How Thin Is Too Thin? So there are 3 variables. Choosing any 2 gives us the 3 rd : 1. c is the pricing error How well? 2. Prob is the probability How often? 3. n is the number of trades How many trades? In what follows: Given the error & probability then what s the volume? Given the volume & probability then what s the error? $140 Texas, OK & NM Cash Prices & Volume 100,000 $120 90,000 80,000 Cash Price ($/cwt live weight) $100 $80 $60 $40 $20 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 Head ( Cash Trade) $0 0 Price Volume 10
11 Transactions: to achieve <$1/cwt pricing error with 95% certainty 4,000 3,500 3,000 Estimated Transactions 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Needed Actual $3.00 Pricing Error at 95% & 99% Needed Confidence $2.50 Cash Price ($/cwt live weight) $2.00 $1.50 $1.00 $0.50 $0.00 Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 95% Pricing Error 99% Pricing Error 11
12 $140 Colorado Cash Prices & Volume 100,000 $120 90,000 80,000 Cash Price ($/cwt live weight) $100 $80 $60 $40 $20 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 Head ( Cash Trade) $0 0 Price Volume Transactions: to achieve <$1/cwt pricing error with 95% certainty 4,000 3,500 3,000 Estimated Transactions 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Needed Actual 12
13 $140 Nebraska Cash Prices & Volume 100,000 $120 90,000 80,000 Cash Price ($/cwt live weight) $100 $80 $60 $40 $20 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 Head ( Cash Trade) $0 0 Price Volume Transactions: to achieve <$1/cwt pricing error with 95% certainty 4,000 3,500 3,000 Estimated Transactions 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Needed Actual 13
14 $140 Iowa & S. MN Cash Prices & Volume 100,000 $120 90,000 80,000 Cash Price ($/cwt live weight) $100 $80 $60 $40 $20 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 Head ( Cash Trade) $0 0 Price Volume Transactions: to achieve <$1/cwt pricing error with 95% certainty 4,000 3,500 3,000 Estimated Transactions 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Needed Actual 14
15 So How Thin Is Too Thin? For Nebraska & likely generalizes to other regions: Suspect impacts on price at the negotiated volume being 5-10% of total. Currently, at 20-50% or 30-40%. All other southern & western regions will see problems beforehand. Texas/Oklahoma/New Mexico there now. Kansas there next. Colorado been there for some time. Midwest regional markets are thickest and will be center of negotiated cash market price discovery? Nebraska & Iowa/Southern Minnesota Interview Questions How much pricing error is acceptable & what proportion of the time? Will help answer how thin is too thin? What are formulas worth ($/hd)? What are reported cash prices worth? Local regional cash market ($/hd)? What is the cost to replace that information? A group of regional cash markets ($/hd)? How many & cost to replace information? National cash market price ($/hd)? Replace? All these questions address the value of the cash market & its information. 15
16 What are solutions to the Tragedy of the Commons? Do nothing and live with it. Government intervention & mandates. Privatize the public good. Collective action by interested individuals. Search for, develop & invest in new technology. Develop new information to mitigate risks. Quantity controls & with tradable rights. (This is not my list. These are what economists & other scientists that face these problems have developed since the 1960s. There are nothing but hard choices because these are difficult issues. And 2 Nobel prizes.) And all work & don t work or have pros & cons. Specific Proposals Do nothing inevitable commodity industry growth & change. Quit opposing Johnson Amendment-type proposals with prohibition or limitations or introduce our own. Informal meetings with informal agreements. Look for & invest in technology to develop markets. Develop new information to address risks. Organize a market for price discovery issue permits (or requirements) & allow trade in those permits. 16
17 Interview Questions Is voluntary group-action sufficient & will you participate? What are your new-technology ideas? Electronic markets? Downstream market prices? Production contracts? B2B more-automated exchanges? Integration of ownership? Would you support collection and reporting of more detailed marketings and purchases? Would you support a market for tradable cash permits/requirements? How does new technology work? The new technology is with respect to the cash market it replaces or reduces the cost of using the cash market. What tools/technology replace the cash market but still result in a reportable negotiated cash price? Production contracts? Vertical integration B2B? What tools/technology reduce the cost of using the cash market? Electronic exchanges automated bid/ask automated scheduling? Vertical coordination B2B? 17
18 How does new information work? New information must mitigate the risk that is causing movement away from the cash market. The Cattle on Feed report is not enough and the information from private sources like Cattle Fax is not enough. Need: Information on weekly expected future marketings. Information on weekly expected future purchases. Where s the imbalance? Market and purchase around the problems. How does the tradable permit market work? Choose a volume for the cash market, e.g., 10%. Issue permits to the largest cattle feeders & stop with some designated modest size. Formula feeders will want to sell (pay to get rid of) permits & cash feeders will want to purchase (be compensated). And there will be a cash fed cattle market. The permit market will provide information as to how much price discovery is wanted/needed. High priced permits implies the % was too large. Low priced permits implies the % was too small. But there are issues with regions Can the market be closed? 18
19 Final Comment on Markets Free markets are not free. Markets require & consume resources for use, maintenance, & development. We all want the information that comes from markets but we also want the option to not use them. Make market function & survival the result of an industrylevel decision & not something that just happens. Need to remember the Public Good aspect of price discovery. Contact & Link Information 19
Price Discovery Issues for Fed Cattle: What s the Future of the Cash Market or How Thin Is Too Thin?
Price Discovery Issues for Fed Cattle: What s the Future of the Cash Market or How Thin Is Too Thin? Stephen R. Koontz Professor & extension economist Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics Colorado
More informationPrice Discovery Issues for Fed Cattle: What s the Future of the Cash Market or How Thin Is Too Thin?
Price Discovery Issues for Fed Cattle: What s the Future of the Cash Market or How Thin Is Too Thin? Stephen R. Koontz Associate professor & extension economist Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics
More informationProgress on & Prescriptions for Thinning Fed Cattle Markets
Progress on & Prescriptions for Thinning Fed Cattle Markets Stephen R. Koontz Professor & extension economist Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics Colorado State University Stephen.Koontz@ColoState.Edu
More informationOverview of the 2007 USDA GIPSA / RTI Livestock and Meat Marketing Study
Overview of the 2007 USDA GIPSA / RTI Livestock and Meat Marketing Study Stephen R. Koontz Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics Colorado State University 2010-08-20 The Study General Conclusions
More informationPrice Comparison of Alternative Marketing Arrangements for Fed Cattle
Oklahoma Cooperative Extension Service AGEC-616 Price Comparison of Alternative Marketing Arrangements for Fed Cattle Clement E. Ward Professor and Extension Economist A previous Extension fact sheet,
More informationCanfax Research Services A Division of the Canadian Cattlemen s Association
Canfax Research Services A Division of the Canadian Cattlemen s Association Publication Sponsored By: Price Discovery: A Literature Review WHAT IS PRICE DISCOVERY? Price discovery is the process of buyers
More information2012 Risk and Profit Conference Breakout Session Presenters. 13. Livestock and Meat Price Discovery: Where did it go? Does it matter? What now?
2012 Risk and Profit Conference Breakout Session Presenters 13. Livestock and Meat Price Discovery: Where did it go? Does it matter? What now? Ted Schroeder Ted is a professor in Ag Economics
More informationAgriculture, Food & Resource Issues
N u m b e r 8 / 2 0 0 7 / p. 4 0-4 8 w w w. C A F R I. o r g Current Agriculture, Food & Resource Issues A Journal of the Canadian Agricultural Economics Society Price Discovery and Captive Supply Implications
More informationPricing/Formula Grids: Which Fit and Which Don't Fit
University of Nebraska - Lincoln DigitalCommons@University of Nebraska - Lincoln Range Beef Cow Symposium Animal Science Department December 1997 Pricing/Formula Grids: Which Fit and Which Don't Fit Dillon
More informationCow/Calf Expansion Considerations
Louisiana Cattle Market Update Friday, October 26 th, 2012 Ross Pruitt, Dep a rtment of Agric ultura l Ec onomic s a nd Agrib usiness LSU Ag Center Cow/Calf Expansion Considerations The October Cattle
More informationAlternative Marketing Arrangements in the Lamb Industry: Definition, Use, and Motives
Authors: Authors: Name, Catherine Affiliation L. Viator, Name, RTI International Affiliation Name, Affiliation Gary Brester, Name, Montana Affiliation State University Sheryl C. Cates, RTI International
More informationRetained Ownership an Attractive Opportunity this Fall
Louisiana Cattle Market Update Friday, October 18 th, 2013 Ross Pruitt, Department of Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness LSU AgCenter Retained Ownership an Attractive Opportunity this Fall This year
More informationCattle Outlook. January, 2018
Cattle Outlook January, 2018 Cattle Outlook January 2018 In This Issue: Supply Fundamentals Demand Fundamentals Summary 2 Historical Price Reference Where are Cattle Prices Currently, And Where are they
More informationCanadian vs. U.S. Fed Cattle Pricing and Marketing Practices and Viewpoints
Canadian vs. Fed Cattle Pricing and Marketing Practices and Viewpoints by Clement E. Ward, Professor and Extension Economist Oklahoma State University Andrea Brocklebank, Research Analyst CanFax Research
More informationWeekly Cattle Market Update For the Week Ending August 24, 2018
This information is provided as a resource by Saskatchewan Agriculture staff. All stated cattle prices are based on the weekly Canfax Market Outlook and Summary. Please use this information at your own
More informationCATTLE MAY HAVE A DECENT, BUT VOLATILE YEAR
CATTLE MAY HAVE A DECENT, BUT VOLATILE YEAR FEBRUARY 2004 Chris Hurt 2004 NO. 2 Summary Early indications are that 2004 will not be as difficult for the cattle industry as many producers had feared in
More informationBeef Industry Outlook & Trade Insights
2018 Extension Outlook Conference August 13, 2018 Kansas City, MO Beef Industry Outlook & Trade Insights Glynn T. Tonsor Professor, Dept. of Ag. Economics, Kansas State University Email: gtonsor@ksu.edu
More informationBeef Industry Outlook & Trade Insights
2018 Extension Outlook Conference August 13, 2018 Kansas City, MO Beef Industry Outlook & Trade Insights Glynn T. Tonsor Professor, Dept. of Ag. Economics, Kansas State University Email: gtonsor@ksu.edu
More informationR-CALF USA Overview of International Trade and the U.S. Cattle and Beef Industries
1 Overview of International Trade and the U.S. Cattle and Beef Industries Presented by Bill Bullard CEO, January 7, 2009 1 2 I. Trade Policy Must Distinguish the U.S. Cattle Industry From the U.S. Beef
More informationCattle and Hay Outlook
Cattle and Hay Outlook Stephen R. Koontz Associate professor & extension economist Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics Colorado State University Stephen.Koontz@ColoState.Edu http://dare.agsci.colostate.edu/skoontz
More informationMid-Year Cattle Report
Louisiana Cattle Market Update Friday, July 20 th, 2012 Ross Pruitt, Dep a rtment of Agric ultura l Ec onomic s a nd Agrib usiness LSU Ag Center Mid-Year Cattle Report The last few weeks have been a wild
More informationCattle on Feed. United States Cattle on Feed Up 1 Percent
Cattle on Feed ISSN: 948-9080 Released May 22, 205, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United s Department of Agriculture (USDA). United s Cattle on
More informationCattle & Beef Outlook
Cattle & Beef Outlook Glynn Tonsor Dept. of Agricultural Economics, Kansas State University Overarching Beef Industry Economic Outlook Supplies Expansion continues, but has moderated Demand Mixed signals
More informationBeef & sheep business management
Beef & sheep business management Animal Science 144 Beef Cattle & Sheep Production R. D. Sainz Lecture 13 Outline Business management Costs & returns Breakevens Marketing: Packers Channels Pricing Strategic
More informationGrid Pricing of Fed Cattle: Base Prices and Premiums- Discounts
Grid Pricing of Fed Cattle: Base Prices and Premiums- Discounts F-560 Clement E. Ward Oklahoma State University Ted C. Schroeder Kansas State University Dillon M. Feuz University of Nebraska A companion
More informationCorn, Hay, Wheat & Cattle Outlook
Corn, Hay, Wheat & Cattle Outlook Stephen R. Koontz Associate professor & extension economist Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics Colorado State University Stephen.Koontz@ColoState.Edu http://dare.agsci.colostate.edu/skoontz
More informationCattle Market Situation and Outlook
Cattle Market Situation and Outlook Rebuilding the Cow Herd Series March 28, 2007 Falls City, TX Coordinated by: Dennis Hale-Karnes CEA Ag & Charlie Pfluger-Wilson CEA Ag Prepared and presented by: Larry
More informationBeef & sheep business management
Beef & sheep business management Animal Science 144 Beef Cattle & Sheep Production R. D. Sainz Lecture 13 Outline Business management Costs & returns Breakevens Marketing: Packers Channels Pricing Strategic
More information3/25/2017. What to do today? Cattle & Beef Markets: Commodity Outlook
3/25/27 Cattle & Beef Markets: Commodity Outlook Stephen R. Koontz Professor & extension economist Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics Colorado State University Stephen.Koontz@ColoState.Edu
More informationCattle on Feed. United States Cattle on Feed Up 4 Percent
Cattle on Feed ISSN: 948- Released July, 07, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United s Department of Agriculture (USDA). United s Cattle on Feed Up
More informationThe Importance of Agriculture and its Transportation Issues
The Importance of Agriculture and its Transportation Issues Presented By: Dr. Steve Amosson Regents Fellow Professor and Extension Economist Texas Freight Advisory Committee Meeting Amarillo, Texas October
More informationCattle on Feed. United States Cattle on Feed Up 4 Percent
Cattle on Feed ISSN: 948- Released July 0, 08, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United s Department of Agriculture (USDA). United s Cattle on Feed
More informationCattle on Feed. United States Cattle on Feed Up 5 Percent
Cattle on Feed ISSN: 948-90 Released March 8, 0, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United s Department of Agriculture (USDA). United s Cattle on Feed
More informationTrends in the Missouri Swine Industry
Trends in the Missouri Swine Industry Dee Hartley and Joe Parcell* d Overview The value of hog production in the state of Missouri followed a downward trend throughout the s. The value of hog production
More informationCattle Markets Start Year Strong
Louisiana Cattle Market Update Friday, January 24 th, 2014 Ross Pruitt, Department of Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness LSU AgCenter Cattle Markets Start Year Strong It s rare that we have such a
More informationCattle on Feed. United States Cattle on Feed Up 3 Percent
Cattle on Feed ISSN: 948-98 Released July,, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United s Department of Agriculture (USDA). United s Cattle on Feed Up
More information3/17/2016. Ross Pruitt Associate Professor. What is happening? What may happen? Economic/management considerations
Ross Pruitt Associate Professor What is happening? What may happen? Economic/management considerations Mil. Head 40 JANUARY 1 COW INVENTORY U.S., Annual 35 30 25 2016 = 30.3 Million Head +3.5 Percent 20
More informationSituation Analysis. Kathleen R. Brooks, Ph.D. Extension Livestock Economics Specialist
Situation Analysis Kathleen R. Brooks, Ph.D. Extension Livestock Economics Specialist Department of Agricultural Economics University of Nebraska-Lincoln kbrooks4@unl.edu Agricultural Challenges More with
More informationValue of Preconditioned Certified Health Programs to Feedlots
Value of Preconditioned Certified Health Programs to Feedlots Department of Agricultural Economics MF3017 www.agmanager.info Preconditioning calves has become common practice among cow-calf producers.
More informationSaskatchewan Feeder Steer and Feeder Heifer Prices ($/cwt) Feeder Steers
This information is provided as a resource by Saskatchewan Agriculture staff. All stated cattle prices are based on the weekly Canfax Market Outlook and Summary. Please use this information at your own
More informationWeekly Mature U.S. Beef Cow Slaughter
Louisiana Cattle Market Update Friday, July 9 th, 2010 Ross Pruitt, Department of Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness Louisiana State University AgCenter In two weeks, USDA NASS will release the July
More informationCattle on Feed. Special Note
Cattle on Feed ISSN: 948-8 Released September, 8, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United s Department of Agriculture (USDA). Special Note The December
More informationCattle on Feed. United States Cattle on Feed Down 6 Percent
Cattle on Feed ISSN: 8- Released December 2, 202, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United s Department of Agriculture (USDA). United s Cattle on Feed
More informationLess Obvious Market Impacts of the Zilmax Situation
Louisiana Cattle Market Update Friday, August 23 rd, 2013 Ross Pruitt, Department of Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness LSU AgCenter Less Obvious Market Impacts of the Zilmax Situation What can be
More informationCattle on Feed. United States Cattle on Feed Up 5 Percent
Cattle on Feed ISSN: 948-98 Released April,, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United s Department of Agriculture (USDA). United s Cattle on Feed Up
More informationCHANGES IN THE MIDWESTERN U.S. PORK INDUSTRY
CHANGES IN THE MIDWESTERN U.S. PORK INDUSTRY John D. Lawrence Department of Economics Iowa State University ABSTRACT Midwest pork production has changed dramatically in the past ten years and continues
More informationCattle on Feed. United States Cattle on Feed Up 5 Percent
Cattle on Feed ISSN: 948-8 Released October,, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United s Department of Agriculture (USDA). United s Cattle on Feed Up
More informationBeef Cattle Market Outlook & Cow-Calf Decision-Making Overview
Beef Cattle Market Outlook & Cow-Calf Decision-Making Overview Arnold & Geneva, NE January 19-20, 2016 Glynn Tonsor Dept. of Ag. Economics Kansas State University www.agmanager.info Supplies Overarching
More information2016 Risk and Profit Conference General Session Speakers. GENERAL SESSION IV Livestock Market Situation and Outlook
2016 Risk and Profit Conference General Session Speakers GENERAL SESSION IV Livestock Market Situation and Outlook Glynn Tonsor, Kansas State University Glynn Tonsor is a Professor in the Department of
More informationBeef Cattle Outlook Dr. Curt Lacy Extension Economist-Livestock
Beef Cattle Outlook Dr. Curt Lacy Extension Economist-Livestock Current Situation $ Per Cwt. 190 180 170 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 MED. & LRG. #1 & 2 STEER CALF PRICES 500-600 Pounds, Georgia, Weekly
More informationRevised Estimated Returns Series Beginning in 2007
Revised Estimated Returns Series Beginning in 2007 The Economics Department at Iowa State University has prepared monthly Estimated Returns to Feeding Livestock in Iowa since the 1960s. Each month the
More informationUsage Determinants of Fed Cattle Pricing Mechanisms. by Matthew A. Diersen and Scott W. Fausti
Usage Determinants of Fed Cattle Pricing Mechanisms by Matthew A. Diersen and Scott W. Fausti Suggested citation format: Diersen, M. A. and S. W. Fausti. 2012. Usage Determinants of Fed Cattle Pricing
More informationFed Cattle Pricing. This NebGuide discusses pricing alternatives for fed cattle, including live weight, dressed weight and grid pricing.
G98-1353-A Fed Cattle Pricing This NebGuide discusses pricing alternatives for fed cattle, including live weight, dressed weight and grid pricing. Dillon M. Feuz, Assistant Professor, University of Nebraska
More informationTight Supplies, Higher Prices, and the Beginning of Expansion
Louisiana Cattle Market Update Friday, June 20 th, 2014 Ross Pruitt, Department of Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness LSU AgCenter Tight Supplies, Higher Prices, and the Beginning of Expansion As
More informationBeef Cattle Market Outlook & Cow-Calf Decision-Making Overview
Beef Cattle Market Outlook & Cow-Calf Decision-Making Overview Ord, NE January 24, 2017 Glynn Tonsor Dept. of Ag. Economics Kansas State University Veterinary Feed Directive TRADE w/ BRAZIL Interesting
More informationFormula Pricing and Grid Pricing Fed Cattle: Implications for Price Discovery and Variability
378.755 R47 R99-l Formula Pricing and Grid Pricing Fed Cattle: Implications for Price Discovery and Variability Clement E. Ward Dillon M. Feuz Ted C. Schroeder January 1999 A report on research conducted
More informationSell or Keep to Upgrading Cull Cows Profit Projection
Sell or Keep to Upgrading Cull Cows Profit Projection Cow-calf producers are frequently faced with the alternative of selling their cull cows at the time they are culled or retaining them to improve the
More informationCattle on Feed. United States Cattle on Feed Up 2 Percent
Cattle on Feed ISSN: 948-90 Released October 23, 20, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United s Department of Agriculture (USDA). United s Cattle on
More informationCattle and Hog Outlook 2010 and Beyond. John D. Lawrence Extension Livestock Economist Iowa State University
Cattle and Hog Outlook 2010 and Beyond John D. Lawrence Extension Livestock Economist Iowa State University 1 Current Situation Total red meat and poultry 2009 at 210# lowest since 1996 2010 at 206# lowest
More informationLivestock Price Discovery in Canada
Livestock Price Discovery in Canada Kevin Grier, Senior Market Analyst October 2010 Many of the economic research projects undertaken by the George Morris Centre involve an explanation of how prices are
More informationIs There Life After High Grain Prices for the Cattle Industry?
Is There Life After High Grain Prices for the Cattle Industry? Derrell S. Peel Breedlove Professor of Agribusiness And Livestock Marketing Specialist Oklahoma State University Mil. Head 140 JANUARY 1 TOTAL
More informationSaskatchewan Feeder Steer and Feeder Heifer Prices ($/cwt)
This information is provided as a resource by Saskatchewan Agriculture staff. All stated cattle prices are based on the weekly Canfax Market Outlook and Summary. Please use this information at your own
More informationJuly Cattle Market Update August 1, 2017 All prices are quoted in Canadian dollars per hundredweight ($/cwt) unless otherwise stated.
This information is provided as a resource by Saskatchewan Agriculture staff. All stated cattle prices are based on the weekly Canfax Market Outlook and Summary. Please use this information at your own
More informationAnimal Identification
Animal Identification WEMC FS#9-04 Fall 2004 Darr ell R. Mark, Darrell Ph. D. Assistant Professor and Extension Livestock Marketing Specialist Department of Agricultural Economics Institute of Agriculture
More informationGlynn Tonsor Dept. of Agricultural Economics Kansas State University
Beef & Cattle Market Outlook Glynn Tonsor Dept. of Agricultural Economics Kansas State University 98 th Annual Beef Cattle Research Roundup, KSU Agricultural Research Center, Hays, KS April 19, 2012 1
More informationLivestock Risk Protection (LRP) A New Price Risk Management Tool for Livestock Producers
Livestock Risk Protection (LRP) A New Price Risk Management Tool for Livestock Producers Tim Petry, Livestock Economist LRP Cattle Feedlot School Jan2011 01-28-10 LRP Insures against price declines Similar
More informationBeef & Cattle Market Outlook. Glynn Tonsor Dept. of Agricultural Economics Kansas State University
Beef & Cattle Market Outlook Glynn Tonsor Dept. of Agricultural Economics Kansas State University 1 FEEDSTUFFS: OVERVIEW Drought triggered liquidations; recent relief & associated wheat pasture changes
More informationMorning Comments
Position Management: The table shows how the Model Farm is positioned at this time. Individual recommendations may vary. 2010 Crop 2011 Crop 2012 Crop Corn 100% sold with basis set 50% sold HTA 30% sold
More informationHistorical and Projected Kansas Feedlot Net Returns
Historical and Projected Kansas Feedlot Net Returns Glynn Tonsor (gtonsor@ksu.edu) Kansas State University Department of Agricultural Economics November 2018 This article presents estimated net returns
More informationCattle on Feed. United States Cattle on Feed Up 9 Percent
Cattle on Feed ISSN: 948-9080 Released March, 08, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United s Department of Agriculture (USDA). United s Cattle on Feed
More informationRelationships between Alternative Marketing Arrangement Prices for Fed Cattle and Hogs,
Relationships between Alternative Marketing Arrangement Prices for Fed Cattle and Hogs, 2001-2013 Clement E. Ward Department of Agricultural Economics Oklahoma State University Stillwater, OK 74075 Phone:
More informationCattle on Feed. United States Cattle on Feed Up 5 Percent
Cattle on Feed ISSN: 98-98 Released January,, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United s Department of Agriculture (USDA). United s Cattle on Feed Up
More informationBeef Cattle Market Outlook. Glynn T. Tonsor Dept. of Agricultural Economics Kansas State University
Beef Cattle Market Outlook Glynn T. Tonsor Dept. of Agricultural Economics Kansas State University gtonsor@ksu.edu Twitter: @TonsorGlynn Overarching Beef Industry Economic Outlook Supplies Commercial Beef
More informationSeasonal Trends in Steer Feeding Profits, Prices, and Performance
MF-2547 Seasonal Trends in Steer Feeding Profits, Prices, and Performance Kansas State University Agricultural Experiment Station and Cooperative Extension Service 1 2 This publication is a revised version
More informationIowa Farm Outlook. February 2016 Ames, Iowa Econ. Info Cattle Inventory Report Affirms What Happened in 2015 and What May Happen in 2016
Iowa Farm Outlook 0BDepartment of Economics February 2016 Ames, Iowa Econ. Info. 2070 Cattle Inventory Report Affirms What Happened in 2015 and What May Happen in 2016 Curious about how fast the beef cow
More information2019 IBA ANNUAL AGRICULTURAL CONFERENCE
2019 IBA ANNUAL AGRICULTURAL CONFERENCE Livestock Update 2019 livestock production, prices and forecasts Lee Schulz, Dept. of Economics, Iowa State University +12% +3% +11% +15% +11% Data Source: USDA-NASS,
More informationBeef Cattle Outlook. Glynn Tonsor Dept. of Agricultural Economics Kansas State University
Beef Cattle Outlook Glynn Tonsor Dept. of Agricultural Economics Kansas State University Interesting Times in the Beef Industry BREXIT IMPORTS FROM BRAZIL TPP/TTIP & US Election Interesting Times in the
More informationMarketing 2018 Feeder Calves
Marketing 2018 Feeder Calves Chris Prevatt Beef Cattle and Forage Economics University of Florida, Range Cattle REC Tariffs A tariff is a tax on imports or exports between sovereign states. Tariffs (from
More informationIowa Farm Outlook. Department of Economics August, 2012 Ames, Iowa Econ. Info Comings and Goings. Cattle Market Situation and Outlook
Iowa Farm Outlook Department of Economics August, 2012 Ames, Iowa Econ. Info. 2028 Comings and Goings With the fall semester approaching, changes are occurring here at Iowa State. Two of those changes
More informationCattle Situation and Outlook
Cattle Situation and Outlook Midwest/Great Plains/Western Outlook Conference August 2010 Tim Petry Livestock Economist www.ag.ndsu.edu/livestockeconomics mwgpw.ppt 8/12/10 TO ALL OUTLOOK CONFERENCE ATTENDEES
More informationWhat tools can we use to help us decide when to enter and when to exit a hedge? (Or, or for that matter, when to enter and exit any trade.
Motivation for Fundamental and Technical Analysis What tools can we use to help us decide when to enter and when to exit a hedge? (Or, or for that matter, when to enter and exit any trade.) So, how do
More informationLivestock Risk Protection (LRP)
Livestock Risk Protection (LRP) A New Price Risk Management Tool for Livestock Producers Tim Petry Extension Livestock Economist www.ndsu.edu/livestockeconomics January 24, 2018 LRP Feedlot_School Jan2018.pptx
More informationCattle on Feed. United States Cattle on Feed Up 5 Percent
Cattle on Feed ISSN: 948-80 Released September 3,, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). United States Cattle
More informationStructural Changes in Cattle Feeding and Meat Packing
Managing for Today s Cattle Market and Beyond March 2002 Structural Changes in Cattle Feeding and Meat Packing By Clement E. Ward, Oklahoma State University Ted C. Schroeder, Kansas State University Cattle
More informationNovember 18, 1996 Ames, Iowa Econ. Info. 1706
November 18, 1996 Ames, Iowa Econ. Info. 1706 LEAN HOG CARCASS BASIS The new Lean Hog futures contract differs from its predecessor in several ways. It is traded on carcass weight and price rather than
More informationSlaughter Cow Market and Wholesale Values
Louisiana Cattle Market Update Friday, July 19 th, 2013 Ross Pruitt, Dep a rtment of Agric ultura l Ec onomic s a nd Agrib usiness LSU Ag Center Slaughter Cow Market and Wholesale Values While there may
More informationUS Imported Beef Market A Weekly Update
US Imported Beef Market A Weekly Update Prepared Exclusively for Meat & Livestock Australia - Sydney Volume 19, Issue 11 March 15, 2019 Prepared by: Steiner Consulting Group SteinerConsulting.com 800-526-4612
More informationTEXAS A8cM UNIVERSITY TEXAS AGRICULTURAL EXTENSION SERVICE
TEXAS A8cM UNIVERSITY TEXAS AGRICULTURAL EXTENSION SERVICE J. E. HUTCHISON, DIRECTOR, COLLEGE STATION, TEXAS SEASONAL CHANGES IN CATTLE PRICES Edward Uvacek, Jr. and Ernest E. Davis* Beef has been blessed
More informationCCA - Responding to NFU Cattle Industry Report 1 of 5
Canadian Cattlemen s Association Responding to the National Farmers Union Report The Farm Crisis and the Cattle Sector: Toward a New Analysis and New Solutions On November 19, 2008 the National Farmers
More informationEmmit L. Rawls Professor Agricultural Economics
Beef Cattle Situation and Outlook Emmit L. Rawls Professor Agricultural Economics Slaughter Steer Prices $ Per Cwt. 105 5 Market W eighted Average, Weekly 100 95 90 85 Avg. 2004-08 2009 80 75 2010 70 JAN
More informationCattle on Feed. U.S. Cattle on Feed Up 3 Percent
Cattle on Feed ISSN: 948- Released October,, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United s Department of Agriculture (USDA). U.S. Cattle on Feed Up 3 Percent
More informationA Stronger Dollar and Less Exports
Louisiana Cattle Market Update Friday, March 20 th, 2015 Ross Pruitt, Department of Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness LSU AgCenter A Stronger Dollar and Less Exports Exports have been on forefront
More informationIowa Farm Outlook. February 2015 Ames, Iowa Econ. Info Takeaways from the January Cattle Inventory Report
Iowa Farm Outlook 0BDepartment of Economics February 2015 Ames, Iowa Econ. Info. 2058 Takeaways from the January Cattle Inventory Report USDA has released the much anticipated inventory of the U.S. cattle
More information2017 Risk and Profit Conference Breakout Session Presenters. 11. An Updated Look at Live Cattle Price Discovery
Brian Coffey 2017 Risk and Profit Conference Breakout Session Presenters 11. An Updated Look at Live Cattle Price Discovery Brian teaches undergraduate courses in production economics
More informationMorning Comments
Position Management: The table shows how the Model Farm is positioned at this time. Individual recommendations may vary. 2010 Crop 2011 Crop 2012 Crop Corn 90% sold with basis set 50% sold HTA 30% sold
More informationOpportunities and Challenges for Cow/Calf Producers 1. Rick Rasby Extension Beef Specialist University of Nebraska
Opportunities and Challenges for Cow/Calf Producers 1 Rick Rasby Extension Beef Specialist University of Nebraska Introduction The cow/calf enterprise has been a profitable enterprise over the last few
More informationBeef Cattle Outlook R. Curt Lacy, Ph.D. Extension Economist-Livestock University of Florida Beef Cattle Short Coourse
Beef Cattle Outlook R. Curt Lacy, Ph.D. Extension Economist-Livestock 2012 University of Florida Beef Cattle Short Coourse MED. & LRG. #1 & 2 STEER CALF PRICES 400-500 Pounds, Georgia, Weekly $ Per Cwt.
More informationCattle on Feed. United States Cattle on Feed Up 1 Percent
Cattle on Feed ISSN: 948-9 Released March 22, 29, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United s Department of Agriculture (USDA). United s Cattle on Feed
More informationEconomic Outlook of Beef Cattle
Economic Outlook of Beef Cattle Stan Bevers Professor & Ext. Economist Texas A&M AgriLife Extension Service Vernon, Texas University of Florida Beef Cattle Short Course Gainesville, Florida May 4, 2016
More informationMarketing Options to Improve Income. Ken Kelley Auburn University
Marketing Options to Improve Income Ken Kelley Auburn University Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Jan-15 May-15 Sep-15 Jan-16 May-16
More information