businesses. Thus two markets in bakery have emerged; one for high quality, rustic and ethical products, and one for a very price-aware consumer.

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1 Greggs Plc. Introduction Greggs plc is the leading bakery retailer in the United Kingdom. It is primarily a high-street retailer with about 1,600 outlets in the UK and employing 20,000 people. 1 Greggs specialises in products such as hot pastries, sausage rolls, sandwiches and doughnuts. John Gregg opened his first bakery in 1952, and after his death his two sons began expanding the chain. Many acquisitions have taken place in the course of Greggs life including the acquisition of Baker s Oven in 1994 making it the largest bakery chain in the UK. In 2012, it began trialling manufactured frozen pastries for sale in supermarkets. Industry Analysis The UK bakery market as a whole is worth 3.6bn, and it is growing at around 1.3% annually. 2 Exhibit 1 shows the environmental situation surrounding the firm. The global economic recession and increase in online shopping has put strain on many high street food outlets, due to the lower footfall on Britain s high streets. This recession has now continued longer than many economists initially predicted, longer even than the Great Depression. 3 Disposable income is under pressure, and many people are cutting back on non-essentials. Greggs was far better positioned than most food retail shops to deal with the economic crisis, as one of the lowest priced providers of freshly baked food on the market. The inflation in food prices over recent years has increased consumers price-sensitivity. In addition to financial reasons, consumers have turned to baked goods more recently because of the need for warm, homely comfort food. This is because of the recession and also due to the long, harsh winters we have experienced in recent years. Supermarket sales in the pie and pasty sector have risen 3.9% from 2009 to The craft bakery industry is heavily dependent on the weather, with very hot weather reducing demand and cold and wet weather decreasing footfall on the high street. However, as the economy begins to recover, this could lead to consumers opting for more expensive, higher quality products. In 2011 just 5% of people stopped working at midday for lunch. Demand for quick and convenient food is continually increasing in a more time-conscious world. This puts Greggs in a favourable position as providers of portable food that can be eaten on the go. In conflict with the demand for low-cost, premium and artisan products are on the rise along with those which are low on synthetic additives. This is compounded by a national growing interest in luxury baking as exemplified by the popularity of The Great British Bake Off programme on channel 4. There is also a growing preference for environmentally and socially responsible

2 businesses. Thus two markets in bakery have emerged; one for high quality, rustic and ethical products, and one for a very price-aware consumer. There is a growing coffee-shop culture in the UK, with 1 in 5 people visiting coffee shops daily. This industry is turning over 5.8 bn per year and this is predicted to increase to 8 bn by This is despite being nation of tea-drinkers and the recession. Coffee-shop business is dominated by the top three coffee shop chains, accounting for 54% of market. 5 Competitive Positioning Greggs is the leader in the craft bakery market, commanding a huge market share (see exhibit 2). Primarily a high-street retail brand, it s main competitors are a mixture of other craft bakeries, supermarket in-store bakeries and well as local and national coffee and sandwich shop retailers and fast food outlets. As a cost leadership brand, Greggs success can be attributed to its lower price point than other craft bakeries and food retail outlets. Large plant bakers account for 86.2% of the bakery market share by value, with in-store bakers at 13.5% and local high street bakers coming in last at just 0.3% market share. 6 Although Greggs does sell bread and traditional bakery items, savoury and sandwich ranges account for about two thirds of business. This places Greggs in competition with other highstreet retailers rather than with large plant bakers and instore bakeries. However, there is a credibly high threat of substitution (exhibit 3) with consumers buying products in supermarkets and taking it with them rather than buying food on-the-go. The main craft bakery competitors include Sayers the Bakers, Coopland businesses and Patisserie Holdings. Greggs dominates the market with a turnover of 734m, compared to just 35m for the next largest chain exhibit 2 reveals this dominance. Although the capability of producing Greggs products is theoretically easily imitable, the large economies, and therefore low-prices, that Greggs enjoys are not easy to achieve. The growth of Greggs has influenced its craft bakery competitors, forcing them to emphasise values such as local ties and heritage. Due to this trend, a 20% increase in bread sale in craft bakeries as opposed to supermarkets has been observed. 7 Supermarket in-store bakeries are attempting to recover some of this market share, with the Co-operative and Morrisons overhauling their in-store bakeries with new look and products to give it a more rustic look. Tesco and Marks & Spencer are also planning to bring in a new format for their bakery departments this year. 8 While there is clearly room for expansion, it is unlikely that the capabilities of Greggs will enable it to capitalize fully from this development (see exhibit 4 for full capabilities analysis). As low-cost drives the Greggs brand, it is unlikely to be able to compete with other craft bakeries on the perceived quality, or with supermarkets on cost. It should instead focus on the sandwich and savoury market and other areas of growth. The main competitors of Greggs are other High street retailers including sandwich shops (Subway), fast food outlets (McDonalds), coffee shops (Costa, Starbucks, Caffe Nero), convenience stores, and local cafes. Greggs has a distinct point of difference from many of these main competitors as it is both a baker and a retailer. It also has a much lower different pricing structure to its rivals in the baked product market, placing it in a unique competitive position as a baker competing mainly with

3 these other high street retailers. See exhibit 5. Coffee shops are growing and diversifying with their coffee now sold in pubs, hotels, service stations and petrol forecourts. 5 Greggs own hot drinks sales have increased, partly because they are more than 35% cheaper than the national coffee chains, 1 but still use freshly ground coffee beans. Summary & Recommendations: Greggs has a Cost Leadership Strategy and should continue to capitalize on this by minimizing overhead such as advertising and R&D. The strong position that Greggs is in is sustainable due to the low threats as outlined in the five forces analysis in exhibit 3. The main threat is that of substitution, so simple foods which appeal to the mass market are key. Further, in order to keep and attract more budget-conscious customers, the meal deals should be emphasized in-store. Greggs can reduce the impact of low footfall in high streets by holding back on high street store openings and opening more motorway service station outlets. These command premium prices and have a captive market, which mean limited options for those wanting to save money. Greggs will be able to exploit this as the lowest priced and fast alternative. Greggs should transfer its rent-generating assets such as production plants and knowledge of frozen products to move further into the supermarket arena, providing frozen pastries that can be cooked at home. This will allow them to further exploit their excellent economies of scale even further and build the Greggs brand in the home. Products can easily be produced alongside retail store products. Finally, as discussed above, a move into the growing coffee shop market as low-cost provider would be recommended. Entry into this area may be difficult as there are only three main players but Greggs unique position and cheap price point positions it well for such a diversification. There is a room in the strategic map for a low priced coffee shop chain which offers somewhere to sit and eat as well as pause and unwind. The differentiation between this and other Greggs outlets should be defined by facilities such as free wifi and comfortable seating where possible to provide a place to rest, drink coffee and eat. Exhibit 1: Environmental Analysis Demographic trends Socio-cultural influences Macroeconomic Impacts Political- legal pressures Time constrained consumers demand for quick and easy food. Coffee-shop culture growth. Increase in health awareness. Ethical trading increasingly important fair-trade, sustainable food sourcing. Increase in bakery-based television shows driving demand for artisan, rustic and high quality baked goods. Increases in demand for artificial additive-free foods. Recession leads to lower footfall on high streets. Consumers very price-sensitive. Pasty-tax legislation overthrown. Targets set for reduction in salt and fat by the Food Standards Agency and Department of Health.

4 Exhibit 2: Market shares by revenue and number of outlets in the UK 7 Exhibit 3: Five Forces Analysis Threat of New Entrants: Low Economies of scale that Greggs enjoys difficult to replicate. Threat of entry high on local levels, but not national levels. Consumer preference for small local businesses growing. National supermarkets already have in-store bakeries, and it is unlikely more supermarkets will enter into this arena. Exit barriers are moderate. Threat of Substitution: High Many alternatives available. Consumer tastes can be fickle. Cost / speed are determining factors. Switching costs negligible. Alternative of binging food from home. Power of Suppliers: Low Several sources of supply. Greggs as large national chain is likely to be supplier s main buyer. Low-medium switching costs as raw material not processed yet. But transaction costs may be

5 high (drawing up contracts etc.). Information on suppliers high. Some buyer power might be in future increased by consumer demand for ethically and locally sourced food. Credible threat of backward integration already processes own food, so could move into some other areas of production. Argument that Greggs has already done this as far as reasonably possible; purchasing from suppliers is further down the food supply chain than for rivals. Power of Buyers: High Buyers are the end consumer. Switching costs are negligible. Multiple alternatives for the consumer other outlets or food from home. Price sensitivity is very high Rivalry: Moderate Local rivalry may be high as there are many locally based players with the competitive advantage of appearing more ethical to the consumer. On a national level, rivalry is moderate as there are many other players but with widely varying products. Exhibit 4: Capabilities Analysis 1 People / Assets Processes / Systems Sustainability Large capital. 109,645 in buildings and land assets. (1671 outlets & 10 regional bakeries) 144,000 in largely sunk costs (plants and equipment, fixtures and fittings). Well-known brand and untarnished reputation. Contracts with suppliers many suppliers spreads the risk and decreases supplier power. Both a baker and a retailer. Better than others at providing cheap food continues to be an advantage during recession. Sustainable as after recession price point will still be lower and we will be increased footfall on high streets. Products are easily imitable, however a lot of capital and investment and brand building would be required to create a lowpriced nationwide brand product people will trust. Durability: assets such as store fixtures and fittings and plant equipment will need to be continually reveiwed updated to remain functional and current.

6 Exhibit 5: Strategic Map 7,9,10 Area corresponds to the number of outlets in the UK. Top 5 non-supermarket retail chains where bakery products are the primary food offering shown, top 4 craft bakery chains shown. Single top fast-food chain is shown here as an indicator of where this sector might be placed in a strategic map. Exhibit 6: References 1. Greggs Annual financial report Baker info UK. ver pound;1bn_in_five_years.html 3. The office of national statistics. 4. Bakery info UK. by_di smal_uk_weather.html 5. Hospitality and Catering News. 6. Premier Foods. -C293-10E4-26BB-8C94F72E4B49&siteName=premierfoods 7. Special report BB75 from bakeryinfo.co.uk. 8. Bakery info UK The Guardian McDonalds UK The National Bakers Federation.