IS-LM and General Equilibrium

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Marlene Joy Warren
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1 ﺑﺎﺳﻣﮫ ﺗﻌﺎﻟﻲ ﻣﺒﺎﻧﻲ اﻗﺘﺼﺎد ﺳﯿﺪ ﻋﻠﻲ ﻣﺪﻧﻲ زاده ﭘﺎﯾﯿﺰ 1392 ﮔﺮوﻩ اﻗﺘﺼﺎد

2 اﻗﺘﺼﺎد ﮐﻼن IS-LM and General Equilibrium

3 Outline FE ISLM,FE A temporary adverse supply shock The effects of a monetary expansion Classical vs Keynesians Money neutrality Aggregate Demand and its shifters like g Aggregate Supply and its shifters Money neutrality in AD-AS

4 The FE Line: Equilibrium in the Labor Market We showed how equilibrium in the labor market leads to employment at its full-employment level ( ) Nand output at its full-employment level ( ) Y If we plot output against the real interest rate, we get a vertical line, since labor market equilibrium is unaffected by changes in the real interest rate

5 Figure: The FE line

6 The FE Line Factors that shift the FE line The full employment level of output is determined by the full-employment level of employment and the current levels of capital and productivity; any change in these variables shifts the FE line

7 The FE Line Summary Table lists the factors that shift the fullemployment line The full-employment line shifts right because of a beneficial supply shock an increase in labor supply an increase in the capital stock The full-employment line shifts left when the opposite happens to the three factors above

8 Summary

9 General Equilibrium in the Complete IS-LM Model When all markets are simultaneously in equilibrium there is a general equilibrium This occurs where the FE, IS, and LM curves intersect

10 Figure 9.7 General equilibrium in the IS-LM model

11 General Equilibrium Applying the IS-LM framework: A temporary adverse supply shock Suppose the productivity parameter in the production function falls temporarily The supply shock reduces the marginal productivity of labor, hence labor demand With lower labor demand, the equilibrium real wage and employment fall Lower employment and lower productivity both reduce the equilibrium level of output, thus shifting the FE line to the left

12 General Equilibrium Applying the IS-LM framework: A temporary adverse supply shock There s no effect of a temporary supply shock on the IS or LM curves Since the FE, IS, and LM curves don t intersect, the price level adjusts, shifting the LM curve until a general equilibrium is reached In this case the price level rises to shift the LM curve up and to the left to restore equilibrium

13 Figure: Effects of a temporary adverse supply shock

14 General Equilibrium Applying the IS-LM framework: A temporary adverse supply shock The inflation rate rises temporarily, not permanently Summary: The real wage, employment, and output decline, while the real interest rate and price level are higher There is a temporary burst of inflation as the price level moves to a higher level Since the real interest rate is higher and output is lower, consumption and investment must be lower

15 General Equilibrium Application: Oil price shocks revisited Does the IS-LM model correctly predict the results of an adverse supply shock? The data from the and oil price shocks shows the following Output, employment, and the real wage declined Consumption fell slightly and investment fell substantially Inflation surged temporarily All the above results are consistent with the theory

16 General Equilibrium Application: Oil price shocks revisited The real interest rate did not rise during the oil price shock (though it did during the shock) It could be that people expected the oil price shock to be permanent In that case the real interest rate would not necessarily rise If so, people s expectations were correct, since the shock seems to have been permanent, while the shock was reversed quickly

17 General Equilibrium Econometric models and macroeconomic forecasts The Federal Reserve Board s FRB/US model, introduced in 1996, improves on the old model by better handling of expectations, improved modeling of reactions to shocks, and use of newer statistical techniques The FRB/US model is the workhorse for policy analysis by the Fed s staff economists Board of Governor s staff adjust the FRB/US forecasts with their judgment; the subsequent forecasts reported in the Greenbook have been found to be superior to private-sector forecasts

18 Price Adjustment and the Attainment of General Equilibrium The effects of a monetary expansion An increase in money supply shifts the LM curve down and to the right Because financial markets respond most quickly to changes in economic conditions, the asset market responds to the disequilibrium The FE line is slow to respond, because job matching and wage renegotiation take time The IS curve responds somewhat slowly We assume that the labor market is temporarily out of equilibrium, so there s a short-run equilibrium at the intersection of the IS and LM curves

19 Price Adjustment and the Attainment of General Equilibrium The effects of a monetary expansion The increase in the money supply causes people to try to get rid of excess money balances by buying assets, driving the real interest rate down The decline in the real interest rate causes consumption and investment to increase temporarily Output is assumed to increase temporarily to meet the extra demand

20 Price Adjustment and the Attainment of General Equilibrium The effects of a monetary expansion The adjustment of the price level Since the demand for goods exceeds firms desired supply of goods, firms raise prices The rise in the price level causes the LM curve to shift up The price level continues to rise until the LM curve intersects with the FE line and the IS curve at general equilibrium

21 Figure: Effects of a monetary expansion

22 Price Adjustment and the Attainment of General Equilibrium The effects of a monetary expansion The result is no change in employment, output, or the real interest rate The price level is higher by the same proportion as the increase in the money supply So all real variables (including the real wage) are unchanged, while nominal values (including the nominal wage) have risen proportionately with the change in the money supply

23 Price Adjustment and the Attainment of General Equilibrium The effects of a monetary expansion Trend money growth and inflation This analysis also handles the case in which the money supply is growing continuously If both the money supply and price level rise by the same proportion, there is no change in the real money supply, and the LM curve doesn t shift If the money supply grew faster than the price level, the LM curve would shift down and to the right

24 Price Adjustment and the Attainment of General Equilibrium The effects of a monetary expansion Trend money growth and inflation Often, then, we ll discuss things in relative terms The examples can often be thought of as a change in M or P relative to the expected or trend growth of money and inflation Thus when we talk about an increase in the money supply, we have in mind an increase in the growth rate relative to the trend Similarly, a result that the price level declines can be interpreted as the price level declining relative to a trend; for example, inflation may fall from 7% to 4%

25 Price Adjustment and the Attainment of General Equilibrium Classical versus Keynesian versions of the IS-LM model There are two key questions in the debate between classical and Keynesian approaches How rapidly does the economy reach general equilibrium? What are the effects of monetary policy on the economy?

26 Price Adjustment and the Attainment of General Equilibrium Classical versus Keynesian versions of the IS-LM model Price adjustment and the self-correcting economy The economy is brought into general equilibrium by adjustment of the price level The speed at which this adjustment occurs is much debated

27 Price Adjustment and the Attainment of General Equilibrium Classical versus Keynesian versions of the IS-LM model Classical economists see rapid adjustment of the price level So the economy returns quickly to full employment after a shock If firms change prices instead of output in response to a change in demand, the adjustment process is almost immediate

28 Price Adjustment and the Attainment of General Equilibrium Classical versus Keynesian versions of the IS-LM model Keynesian economists see slow adjustment of the price level It may be several years before prices and wages adjust fully When not in general equilibrium, output is determined by aggregate demand at the intersection of the IS and LM curves, and the labor market is not in equilibrium

29 Price Adjustment and the Attainment of General Equilibrium Classical versus Keynesian versions of the IS-LM model Monetary neutrality Money is neutral if a change in the nominal money supply changes the price level proportionately but has no effect on real variables The classical view is that a monetary expansion affects prices quickly with at most a transitory effect on real variables

30 Price Adjustment and the Attainment of General Equilibrium Classical versus Keynesian versions of the IS-LM model Monetary neutrality Keynesians think the economy may spend a long time in disequilibrium, so a monetary expansion increases output and employment and causes the real interest rate to fall Keynesians believe in monetary neutrality in the long run but not the short run, while classicals believe it holds even in the relatively short run

31 Aggregate Demand and Aggregate Supply Use the IS-LM model to develop the AD-AS model The two models are equivalent Depending on the issue, one model or the other may prove more useful IS-LM relates the real interest rate to output AD-AS relates the price level to output

32 Aggregate Demand and Aggregate Supply The aggregate demand curve The AD curve shows the relationship between the quantity of goods demanded and the price level when the goods market and asset market are in equilibrium So the AD curve represents the price level and output level at which the IS and LM curves intersect (Fig. 9.10)

33 Figure 9.10 Derivation of the aggregate demand curve

34 Aggregate Demand and Aggregate Supply The aggregate demand curve The AD curve is unlike other demand curves, which relate the quantity demanded of a good to its relative price; the AD curve relates the total quantity of goods demanded to the general price level, not a relative price The AD curve slopes downward because a higher price level is associated with lower real money supply, shifting the LM curve up, raising the real interest rate, and decreasing output demanded

35 Aggregate Demand and Aggregate Supply The aggregate demand curve Factors that shift the AD curve Any factor that causes the intersection of the IS and LM curves to shift to the left causes the AD curve to shift down and to the left; any factor causing the IS-LM intersection to shift to the right causes the AD curve to shift up and to the right For example, a temporary increase in government purchases shifts the IS curve up and to the right, so it shifts the AD curve up and to the right as well (Fig. 9.11)

36 Figure 9.11 The effect of an increase in government purchases on the aggregate demand curve

37 Aggregate Demand and Aggregate Supply The aggregate demand curve Summary Table: Factors that shift the AD curve Factors that shift the IS curve up and to the right and thus the AD curve up and to the right as well Increases in future output, wealth, government purchases, or the expected future marginal productivity of capital Decreases in taxes if Ricardian equivalence doesn t hold, or the effective tax rate on capital Factors that shift the LM curve down and to the right and thus the AD curve up and to the right as well Increases in the nominal money supply or in expected inflation Decreases in the nominal interest rate on money or the real demand for money

38 Summary

39 Aggregate Demand and Aggregate Supply The aggregate supply curve The aggregate supply curve shows the relationship between the price level and the aggregate amount of output that firms supply In the short run, prices remain fixed, so firms supply whatever output is demanded The short-run aggregate supply curve is horizontal

40 Figure: The short-run and long-run aggregate supply curves

41 Aggregate Demand and Aggregate Supply The aggregate supply curve Full-employment output isn t affected by the price level, so the long-run aggregate supply curve (LRAS) is a vertical line in the Figure.

42 Aggregate Demand and Aggregate Supply The aggregate supply curve Factors that shift the aggregate supply curves The SRAS curve shifts whenever firms change their prices in the short run Factors like increased costs of producing goods lead firms to increase prices, shifting SRAS up Factors leading to reduced prices shift SRAS down Anything that increases full-employment output shifts the LRAS curve right; anything that decreases full-employment output shifts LRAS left Examples include changes in the labor force or productivity changes that affect labor demand

43 Aggregate Demand and Aggregate Supply Equilibrium in the AD-AS model Short-run equilibrium: AD intersects SRAS Long-run equilibrium: AD intersects LRAS Also called general equilibrium AD, LRAS, and SRAS all intersect at same point (Fig. 9.13)

44 Figure: Equilibrium in the AD-AS model

45 Aggregate Demand and Aggregate Supply Equilibrium in the AD-AS model If the economy isn t in general equilibrium, economic forces work to restore general equilibrium both in AD-AS diagram and IS-LM diagram

46 Aggregate Demand and Aggregate Supply Equilibrium in the AD-AS model Monetary neutrality in the AD-AS model (see Fig.)

47 Figure: Monetary neutrality in the AD-AS framework

48 Aggregate Demand and Aggregate Supply Monetary neutrality in the AD-AS model Suppose the economy begins in general equilibrium, but then the money supply is increased by 10% This shifts the AD curve upward by 10% because to maintain the aggregate quantity demanded at a given level, the price level would have to rise by 10% so that real money supply wouldn t change and would remain equal to real money demand

49 Aggregate Demand and Aggregate Supply Monetary neutrality in the AD-AS model In the short run, with the price level fixed, equilibrium occurs where AD2 intersects SRAS1, with a higher level of output Since output exceeds full-employment output, over time firms raise prices and the short-run aggregate supply curve shifts up to SRAS2, restoring longrun equilibrium The result is a higher price level higher by 10% Money is neutral in the long run, as output is unchanged

50 Aggregate Demand and Aggregate Supply Monetary neutrality in the AD-AS model The key question is: How long does it take to get from the short run to the long run? The answer to this question is what separates classicals from Keynesians

51 Key Diagram: The IS-LM model

52 Key Diagram: The aggregate demand aggregate supply model

53 More Details

54 -3-14 ﺳﯿﺎﺳﺖ ﻣﺎﻟﻲ ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮ در ھﺰﯾﻨﮫھﺎي دوﻟﺖ ﺗﻌﯾﯾن ﺣﺟم ﭘول ﺳﯾﺎﺳت ﭘوﻟﻲ و ﺗﻌﯾﯾن ھزﯾﻧﮫھﺎي دوﻟت ﺳﯾﺎﺳت ﻣﺎﻟﻲ ﻧﺎم دارد. دوﻟت ﺑراي ﺗﺎﻣﯾن ھزﯾﻧﮫھﺎﯾش ﺳﮫ راه در ﭘﯾش رو دارد : اﺳﺗﻘراض از ﺑﺎﻧك ﻣرﻛزي و در ﻧﺗﯾﺟﮫ اﻓزاﯾش ھﻣزﻣﺎن ﻣﺧﺎرج دوﻟت و ﺣﺟم ﭘول ﺗﺄﻣﯾن ﻣﺧﺎرج اﻓزاﯾش ﯾﺎﻓﺗﮫ از طرﯾﻖ اﺧذ ﻣﺎﻟﯾﺎت ﺑﯾﺷﺗر اﻧﺗﺷﺎر اوراق ﻗرﺿﮫ اﻓزاﯾش ﻣﺧﺎرج دوﻟت ﻧﮫ ﺗﻧﮭﺎ ﺑﺎﻋث اﻓزاﯾش ﺗوﻟـﯾد ﻣﻲﺷــود ﺑﻠﻛﮫ ﻣﻧـﺟر ﺑﮫ ﺗﻐﯾـﯾـر ﺗوزﯾــﻊ ﻣﺧﺎرج ﺑﯾن ﻣﺻرف و ﺳرﻣﺎﯾﮫﮔذاري از ﯾك طرف و ﺑﯾن دوﻟت و ﺑﺧش ﺧﺻوﺻﻲ از طرف دﯾﮕر ﻣﻲﺷود. ﻣدل ﻛﯾﻧزي :III ﺳﯾﺎﺳﺗﮕذاري ﭘوﻟﻲ و ﻣﺎﻟﻲ

55 LM ﺑﺎ اﻋﻤﺎل ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺖ IS ﺑﮫ ﺳﻤﺖ راﺳﺖ ﺟﺎﺑﺠﺎ ﻣﻲﺷﻮد و ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ از Y1 ﺑﮫ Y2 ﻣﻲرﺳﺪ. در اﻳﻦ ﺣﺎﻟﺖ ﻧﺮخ از ﺑﮫ r2 r1 ﻣﻲﻳﺎﺑﺪ. IS2... B C Y Y2 Y3 ﻣدل ﻛﯾﻧزي :III ﺳﯾﺎﺳﺗﮕذاري ﭘوﻟﻲ و ﻣﺎﻟﻲ Y1 IS1 r r2 A r1

56 Y1 c0 by1 I 0 ar1 G1 M ( ) Y1 r1 P Y2 c0 by2 I 0 ar2 G1 G M ( ) y2 r2 P Y b. Y a. r G 0. Y. r (1-14) r1, y1 ﺗﻌﺎدل (2-14) G ﺑﮫ اﻧﺪازﻩ اﻋﻤﺎل ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺖ (3-14) r r2 r و 1 ﺳﯾﺎﺳﺗﮕذاري ﭘوﻟﻲ و ﻣﺎﻟﻲ :III ﻣدل ﻛﯾﻧزي y y2 y1

57 1 y. G (1 b ).a r. G (1 b ).a ﺳﯾﺎﺳﺗﮕذاري ﭘوﻟﻲ و ﻣﺎﻟﻲ :III ﻣدل ﻛﯾﻧزي

58 + ﻣﺻرف ھزﯾﻧﮫھﺎي دوﻟت ﺗوﻟﯾد )درآﻣد( + ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎي ﺳرﻣﺎﯾﮫﮔذاري ﻋرﺿﮫ اوراق ﻗرﺿﮫ + + ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎي ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻼﺗﻲ ﭘول - ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎي ﺳوداﮔراﻧﮫ ﻧرخ ﺑﮭره - ﺣﺟم ﭘول ﺛﺎﺑت اﻳﺠﺎد ﺷﺪﻩ در ﻧﻤﻮدار ﻧﻤﻮدار درآﻣﺪ دو ﻋﺎﻣﻞ در. در درآﻣﺪ اﺳﺖ. ﻣﻲﻛﻨﻨﺪ. ﺑﺮآﻳﻨﺪ اﻳﻦ ﺳﮫ ﻋﺎﻣﻞ ﻋﻤﺪﻩ در اﺛﺮ اﻋﻤﺎل ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺖ ﺎﻃﻲ آن ﻋﻤﻞ و ﻳﻚ ﻋﺎﻣﻞ در ﻣدل ﻛﯾﻧزي :III ﺳﯾﺎﺳﺗﮕذاري ﭘوﻟﻲ و ﻣﺎﻟﻲ

59 -4-14 ﺿﺮﯾﺐ ﻓﺰاﯾﻨﺪه ﻣﺎﻟﻲ ) (4-14 0<b<1 1 y. G (1 b ).a r. G (1 b ).a ﻣﻘدار ﺗﻐﯾﯾر درآﻣد در اﺛر ﯾك واﺣد ﺗﻐﯾﯾر در ھزﯾﻧﮫھﺎي دوﻟت اﺳت. اﺛر ﺑﺎزدارﻧدﮔﻲ ﺳرﻣﺎﯾﮫﮔذاري ﺑر روي ﺗوﻟﯾد ﻛﮫ ﺑﮫ واﺳطﮫ وﺟود ﺑﺎزار ﭘوﻟﻲ و اﻓزاﯾش ﻧرخ ﺑﮭره ﺣﺎﺻل ﻣﻲﺷود اﺛر»ﺟﺎﻧﺷﯾﻧﻲ ﺟﺑري«ﻧﺎم دارد. ﻣدل ﻛﯾﻧزي :III ﺳﯾﺎﺳﺗﮕذاري ﭘوﻟﻲ و ﻣﺎﻟﻲ

60 اﻓزاﯾش ﻣﺧﺎرج دوﻟت اﻓزاﯾش ﺗوﻟﯾد را اﯾﺟﺎب ﻣﻲﻛﻧد و اﻓزاﯾش ﺗوﻟﯾد در ﺑﺎزار ﭘول ﻣوﺟب ﺑروز ﻣﺎزاد ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎ ﻣﻲﮔردد ﻛﮫ ﺑﺎ ﻓرض ﺛﺎﺑت ﺑودن ﺣﺟم ﭘول ﺗﻧﮭﺎ از طرﯾﻖ اﻓزاﯾش ﻧرخ ﺑﮭره و در ﻧﺗﯾﺟﮫ ﻛﺎھش ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎي ﺳوداﮔراﻧﺔ ﭘول ﻣﻲﺗواﻧد ﺗﻌﺎدل را ﻣﺟددا ﺑﮫ اﯾن ﺑﺎزار ﺑرﮔرداﻧد. ﻣدل ﻛﯾﻧزي :III ﺳﯾﺎﺳﺗﮕذاري ﭘوﻟﻲ و ﻣﺎﻟﻲ

61 -1-14 ﻧﺘﺎﻳﺞ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺖ در ﻣﺪل IS-LM Y c ( y ) I ( r ) G M ) P m ( y, r ﺑﺎ در ﻧظر ﮔرﻓﺗن دﯾﻔراﻧﺳﯾل ﻛل درآﻣد دارﯾم : ﻣﻘدار ﺗﻐﯾﯾر در ﺗوﻟﯾد dy cy dy I r dr dg 0 my dy mr dr 1 dg.i r ﻣدل ﻛﯾﻧزي :III ﺳﯾﺎﺳﺗﮕذاري ﭘوﻟﻲ و ﻣﺎﻟﻲ my mr (1 c y ) dy

62 ﺳﯿﺎﺳﺖ ﻣﺎﻟﯿﺎﺗﻲ Y C I G C C0 by I I 0 ar d Y Y T M ( ) y r P (5-14) ﻣﻘدار ﻣﺎﻟﯾﺎﺗﻲ ﻛﮫ دوﻟت اﺧذ ﻣﻲﻛﻧد Y درآﻣد ﻗﺎﺑل ﺗﺻرف T Y C 0 by bt I 0 ar G M ( ) Y r P ﺳﯾﺎﺳﺗﮕذاري ﭘوﻟﻲ و ﻣﺎﻟﻲ :III ﻣدل ﻛﯾﻧزي (6-14) d

63 b. T (7 -Y14 ) (1 b) a. ( )( b. T ) r (1 b) a. ﺳﯾﺎﺳﺗﮕذاري ﭘوﻟﻲ و ﻣﺎﻟﻲ :III ﻣدل ﻛﯾﻧزي

64 ﻣﺎﻟﯾﺎت ﻣﺻرفﺧﺻوﺻﻲ اﻳﺠﺎد ﺷﺪﻩ در ﻧﻤﻮدار ﻋﻤﺪﻩ در اﺛﺮ اﻋﻤﺎل ﻣﺎﻟﻴﺎت(. ) ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺖ ﻣﺎﻧﻨﺪ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺖ اﻳﻦ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺖ در ﻋﻤﻞ ﻣﻲﻛﻨﺪ. ﺗوﻟﯾد )درآﻣد( ﻣﻠﻲ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎي ﺳرﻣﺎﯾﮫ ﮔذاري ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎي ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻼﺗﻲ ﻧرخ ﺑﮭره ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎي ﺳوداﮔراﻧﮫ ﻣدل ﻛﯾﻧزي :III ﺳﯾﺎﺳﺗﮕذاري ﭘوﻟﻲ و ﻣﺎﻟﻲ

65 اﻋﻣﺎل ﺳﯾﺎﺳت ﻣﺎﻟﻲ از طرﯾﻖ ﺗﻐﯾﯾر در ھزﯾﻧﮫھﺎي دوﻟت ﺑﮫ دﻟﯾل ﻋدم ﺗﺎﺛﯾر ﺑر روي رﻓﺗﺎر اﻗﺗﺻﺎدي آﺣﺎد ﻣردم روش ﻣطﻣﺋنﺗري ﻧﺳﺑت ﺑﮫ ﺳﯾﺎﺳت ﻣﺎﻟﯾﺎﺗﻲ ﻣﺣﺳوب ﻣﻲﮔردد. ﻣدل ﻛﯾﻧزي :III ﺳﯾﺎﺳﺗﮕذاري ﭘوﻟﻲ و ﻣﺎﻟﻲ

66 -6-14 ﺳﯿﺎﺳﺖ ﭘﻮﻟﻲ r LM 1 LM 2 A.. B r1 r2 r3 IS Y Y1 Y2 ﺷﻛل ﺑﺎ اﻋﻣﺎل ﺳﯾﺎﺳت ﭘوﻟﻲ اﻧﺑﺳﺎطﻲ ﻣﻧﺣﻧﻲ LM ﺑﮫ ﺳﻣت راﺳت ﺟﺎﺑﺟﺎ ﻣﻲﺷود و ﺗوﻟﯾد ﺗﻌﺎدﻟﻲ از Y1 ﺑﮫ Y2 ﻣﻲرﺳد. در اﯾن ﺣﺎﻟت ﻧرخ ﺑﮭره از r1 ﺑﮫ r2 ﻛﺎھش ﻣﻲﯾﺎﺑد. ﻣدل ﻛﯾﻧزي :III ﺳﯾﺎﺳﺗﮕذاري ﭘوﻟﻲ و ﻣﺎﻟﻲ

67 (8-14) Y C0 by I 0 ar G M ( ) Y r P (9-14) a M. ( ) Y P (1 b ) a. 1 b ( ) M r. ( ) P (1 b ) a ﺳﯾﺎﺳﺗﮕذاري ﭘوﻟﻲ و ﻣﺎﻟﻲ :III ﻣدل ﻛﯾﻧزي

68 ﺣﺟم ﭘول + ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎي اوراق ﺑﮭﺎدار اﻳﺠﺎد ﺷﺪﻩ ﻧﻤﻮدار ﻧﻤﻮدار ﻋﻤﺪﻩ در اﺛﺮ اﻋﻤﺎل ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺖ در - ﻧرخ ﺑﮭره - ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎي ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻼﺗﻲ ﭘول + ﺗوﻟﯾد )درآﻣد( ﻣﻠﻲ + + ﻣﺻرف ﻣدل ﻛﯾﻧزي :III ﺳﯾﺎﺳﺗﮕذاري ﭘوﻟﻲ و ﻣﺎﻟﻲ

69 ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﺳﯿﺎﺳﺖ ﭘﻮﻟﻲ درﺷﻜﻞ ﻛﻠﻲ ﻣﺪل ﻛﺎدر IS-LM y c( y ) i (r ) g M P m( y, r ) : از دو راﺑﻄﮫ dy c y dy ir dr M d ( ) m y dy mr dr P : در ir d ( M ) mr P dy my (1 c y ) ir mr ﺑﺎ ﺳﯾﺎﺳﺗﮕذاري ﭘوﻟﻲ و ﻣﺎﻟﻲ :III ﻣدل ﻛﯾﻧزي

70 -7-14 اﺛﺮ ﺑﺨﺸﻲ ﺳﯿﺎﺳﺖھﺎي ﻣﺎﻟﻲ و r ﭘﻮﻟﻲ LM داراي IS اﻟﻒ - ﺑﺎﺷﺪ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺖ ﻛﮫ اﺛﺮ دارد. C Y.. B IS ب - وﻗﺗﻲ ﻛﮫ داراي IS ﺷﯾب زﯾﺎدي ﺑﺎﺷد ﺳﯾﺎﺳت ﻣﺎﻟﻲ اﺛر ﺑﺧﺷﻲ ﺑﺎﻻﯾﻲ دارد. C Y ﻣدل ﻛﯾﻧزي :III ﺳﯾﺎﺳﺗﮕذاري ﭘوﻟﻲ و ﻣﺎﻟﻲ r IS.2 B. Y 2 Y3 r2 r1 A Y1 Y2 Y3 LM IS 1 IS 1. r2 A Y1 r1

71 r Y روﻧﻖ در ﺣﺎﻟﺖ ﻛﻢ و در ﺣﺎﻟﺖ روﻧﻖ رﻛود اﺳﺖ LM. ﻣدل ﻛﯾﻧزي :III ﺳﯾﺎﺳﺗﮕذاري ﭘوﻟﻲ و ﻣﺎﻟﻲ -5-14

72 r LM ﺷﻛل اﻟف - ﺳﯾﺎﺳت ﻣﺎﻟﻲ در ﺣﺎﻟت رﻛودي ﺣداﻛﺛر اﺛر ﺑﺧﺷﻲ را دارد. IS 1 IS 2.. Y Y2. ﺷﻛل ب - ﺳﯾﺎﺳت ﻣﺎﻟﻲ در ﺣﺎﻟت روﻧﻖ اﺛر ﺑﺧﺷﻲ زﯾﺎدي را ﻧدارد. IS 1 IS 2. LM Y Y1 Y2 ﻣدل ﻛﯾﻧزي :III ﺳﯾﺎﺳﺗﮕذاري ﭘوﻟﻲ و ﻣﺎﻟﻲ Y1 r

73 LM 2 r LM 1 در ﺣﺎﻟﺖ ﺷﻛل اﻟف - ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺖ ﻧﺪارد. اﺛﺮ IS. Y Y1 Y2 LM 2 ﺷﻛل ب - ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺖ اﺛﺮ LM 1. در ﺣﺎﻟﺖ روﻧﻖ از ﺑﺮﺧﻮردار اﺳﺖ.. IS Y ﻣدل ﻛﯾﻧزي :III ﺳﯾﺎﺳﺗﮕذاري ﭘوﻟﻲ و ﻣﺎﻟﻲ Y1 Y2 r

74 ﻣدل ﻧﺋوﮐﻼﺳﯾﮏ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎي ﮐل ﻋرﺿﮫ ﮐل

75 LM 1 2 LM ﻛﻞ ﺗﺎﺑﻊ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎي r ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ اﻟﻒ - ﺑﺎ ﻣﻲﻳﺎﺑﺪ. ﻣﻲﻛﻨﺪ و ﻣﻘﺎدﻳﺮ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ در ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎي. ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ را. B A. r2 r1 IS Y Y ب - م ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ در Y2.. ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎي ﻣﻘﺎدﻳﺮ. ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ را Y Y1 ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎي ﻛل ﻋرﺿﮫ ﻛل : ﻣدل ﻧﺋو ﻛﻼﺳﯾك Y2 P P2 P1

76 اﻋﻤﺎل ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺖ ﻧﻘﻄﮫ از ﻳﺎ M ]. P ) (1-15 راﺑﻄﮫ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎ را ﺑﮫ ﺳﻤﺖ راﺳﺖ ﺟﺎﺑﺠﺎ ﻣﻲﻛﻨﺪ. [C o I o G ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎي ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎي ﻛل ﻋرﺿﮫ ﻛل : ﻣدل ﻧﺋو ﻛﻼﺳﯾك 1 a (1 b) Y

77 -1-15 M p2 0 mr my ) (1 c I ﺳﻄﺢ ﻋﻤﻮﻣﻲ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ را ﻣﯽ. ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎي ﻛل ﻋرﺿﮫ ﻛل : ﻣدل ﻧﺋو ﻛﻼﺳﯾك dy dp

78 -2-15 ﺗﺎﺑﻊ ﻋﺮﺿﮫ ﻛﯿﻨﺰي )ﻛﻮﺗﺎهﻣﺪت( P اﻗﺘﺼﺎد ﻋﻤﻮﻣﻲ ﻋﺮﺿﮫ ﻛﮫ در آن ﺳﻄﺢ ﺛﺎﺑﺖ ﻓﺮض ﻣﻲﺷﻮد. AS y ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎي ﻛل ﻋرﺿﮫ ﻛل : ﻣدل ﻧﺋو ﻛﻼﺳﯾك * P0

79 P AD2 AS ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎي (. ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ (AS و ﻋﺮﺿﺔ ) ) AD ﻋﺮﺿﺔ اﻓﻘﻲ ﻛﮫ ﻣﻲﺷﻮد. ﺑﺎﺷﺪ ﺗﻮﺳﻂ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎ AD1.. Y Y2 ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎي ﻛل ﻋرﺿﮫ ﻛل : ﻣدل ﻧﺋو ﻛﻼﺳﯾك Y1 P*0

80 r اﻟﻒ - ﺑﺎ اﻋﻤﺎل ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺖ IS ﺑﮫ ﺳﻤﺖ راﺳﺖ ﺟﺎﺑﺠﺎ ﻣﻲ ﺷﻮد و ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ از Y ﺑﮫ Y ﻣﻲرﺳﺪ. 1 IS 2 LM.. IS 1 B 2 A Y Y1 Y2 P AD 1 AD 2 ﺑﮫ ﻣﻌﻨﺎي ب - ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺖ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎي ﺑﮫ ﺳﻤﺖ راﺳﺖ اﺳﺖ. AS Y ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎي ﻛل ﻋرﺿﮫ ﻛل : ﻣدل ﻧﺋو ﻛﻼﺳﯾك B.. Y2 Y1 A P *0

81 -5-15 اﻟﻒ - ﺑﺎ اﻋﻤﺎل ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺖ LM ﺑﮫ ﺳﻣت راﺳت ﺟﺎﺑﺟﺎ ﺑﮫ ﻣﻲﺷود و ﺗوﻟﯾد ﺗﻌﺎدﻟﻲ از Y1 Y ﻣﻲرﺳد. r LM1 IS1. LM2 B 2. A Y Y2 Y1 P AD1 AD ب - AS ﻤﺖ راﺳﺖ اﺳﺖ. Y ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎي ﻛل ﻋرﺿﮫ ﻛل : ﻣدل ﻧﺋو ﻛﻼﺳﯾك B.. Y1 Y2 A P*0

82 -3-15 ﺗﺎﺑﻊ ﻋﺮﺿﮫ ﺑﻠﻨﺪﻣﺪت )ﻛﻼﺳﯿﻚ( P AS AD در اﻗﺘﺼﺎد ﻛﻼﺳﻴﻚ ﻋﺮﺿﮫ ﻋﻤﻮدي اﺳﺖ و ﺑﺮ ﺳﻄﺢ اﺛﺮ ﻣﻲﮔﺬارد. B Y.. AD1 P2 A P1 * Y ﻋﻮاﻣﻞ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ در ﺑﻠﻨﺪ ﻣﺪت )* (Y را ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻣﺘﻨﺎﻇﺮ ﺑﺎ اﺷﺘﻐﺎل ﻛﻼﺳﻴﻚ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ) (Natural Level of Production ) ( Full employment ﻳﺎ ﻣﻲﻧﺎﻣﻨﺪ. ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎي ﻛل ﻋرﺿﮫ ﻛل : ﻣدل ﻧﺋو ﻛﻼﺳﯾك

83 Y F (k, L ) Y ) (2-15 ﻓﺮﺿﻴﮫ ﻧﺮخ ﺑﺎر ﺗﻮﺳﻂ و ﻓﻴ ﻣﻄﺮح ﺷﺪ. ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎي ﻛل ﻋرﺿﮫ ﻛل : ﻣدل ﻧﺋو ﻛﻼﺳﯾك

84 -4-15 ﺗﺎﺑﻊ ﻋﺮﺿﮫ ﻧﺌﻮﻛﻼﺳﯿﻚ ﺛﺎﺑﺖ ﻓﺮض ﻣﻲﺷﻮﻧﺪ و ﻧﮫ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ. ﺑﻠﻜﮫ ﺣﺎﻟﺖ ﺳﻮﻣﻲ وﺟﻮد دارد ﻛﮫ درآن ﻧﮫ ﻓﺮض ﻣﻲﺷﻮد. ﻗﻴﻤﺖ و ﻳﺎ ﭼﺴ در ﻣﺪل ﻣﺒﺘﻨﻲ ﺑﺮ دﺳﺘﻤﺰدھﺎي ﭼﺴﺒﻨﺪه اﻓزاﯾش اﺷﺗﻐﺎل اﻓزاﯾش ﺗوﻟﯾد )ﻋرﺿﮫ( ﻧﻤﻮدار راﺑﻄﮫ دﺳﺗﻣزد ﭼﺳﺑﻧده اﻓزاﯾش ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎ ﺑراي ﻧﯾروي ﻛﺎر ﻗﻴﻤﺖ و ﻋﺮﺿﮫ در ﻛﺎھش دﺳﺗﻣزد ﺣﻘﯾﻘﻲ ﺛﺎﺑﺖ )و ﻳﺎ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎي ﻛل ﻋرﺿﮫ ﻛل : ﻣدل ﻧﺋو ﻛﻼﺳﯾك اﻓزاﯾش ﻗﯾﻣت ﻣﻧﻌطف ﺑﻮدن( دﺳﺘﻤﺰد

85 ) (3-15 Y P 0 و Y ﻣﺪل ﻣﺒﺘﻨﻲ ﺑﺮ ﻗﯿﻤﺖھﺎي ﭼﺴﺒﻨﺪه وﺟﻮد در از از ادواري ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﻣﺤﺼﻮﻻت ﭼﺎپ و و ﺷﺪﻩ از ﺑﮫ دﻟﻴﻞ ﻣﻜﺮر از و ﻓﺮوش در ﺛﺎﺑﺖ از از دﺳﺖ دادن و ﻳﺎ ﻣﺘﻌﺪد در ﻣﻮرد ﺑﺎﺷﻨﺪ. داراي اﺳﺖ ﻛﮫ ﻣﻲﺗﻮاﻧﺪ ﻣﻮﺟﺐ ﺷﻮد Y Y P ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎي ﻛل ﻋرﺿﮫ ﻛل : ﻣدل ﻧﺋو ﻛﻼﺳﯾك

86 ﻛﻼﺳﻴﻚ را از ﻣﻌﺘﻘﺪان ﺑﮫ ﻣﻲرﺳﻨﺪ و اﮔﺮ ﺧﻮد ﺑﮫ ﺧﻮد ﺑﮫ ﺣﺎﻟﺖ ﺑﺮ اﻳﻦ ﻓﺮض اﺳﺘﻮار اﺳﺖ ﻛﮫ ﺧﻮد ﺑﺎز ﻣﻲﮔﺮدﻧﺪ. در ﻣﻘﺎﺑﻞ ﺧﺎرج ﻛﻨﺪ در ﺑﻠﻨﺪ ﻣﺪت ﻣﺠﺪد ا ﺑﮫ ﺣﺎﻟﺖ ﺑﺮﺳﻨﺪ در ﺑﮫ اﮔﺮ در ﺑﻠﻨﺪﻣﺪت ﻧﺌﻮﻛﻼﺳﻴﻚ ﻣﻲ وﺟﻮد دارد و ﻟﺬا ﻋﺮﺿﮫ ﻣﻲﺗﻮاﻧﺪ ﻋﻤﻮدي ﻧﺒﺎﺷﺪ. و ﻣﻴﺎنﻣﺪت ﻋﺪم P LRAS ﻋﺮﺿﮫ ) (SRAS ﻧﺌﻮﻛﻼﺳﻴﻚ ) (NCAS و ﻛﻼﺳﻴﻚ ).(LRAS NCAS SRAS Y * Y ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎي ﻛل ﻋرﺿﮫ ﻛل : ﻣدل ﻧﺋو ﻛﻼﺳﯾك P0

87 ﻛﺎدر رواﺑﻂ رﯾﺎﺿﻲ P=P*=cte ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﺛﺎﺑﺖ ﻣﺪل ﻣﺪل ﻛﻼﺳﻴﻚ Y=Y*=cte ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﺛﺎﺑﺖ U=U*=cte ﻧﺮخ ﻣﻌﺎدل ﻧﺮخ 0 در ﻣﺪل ﻧﺌﻮﻛﻼﺳﻴﻚ Y=YP و )* Y-Y*=Y (P-P ﻋﺮﺿﮫ راﺑﻄﮫاي )* Y=Y*+Y (P-P ﻳﺎ 0 ر اﺑﻄﮫ ﻓﻮق ﺑﮫ ﺻﻮرت ﻓﻮق ﺑﮫ ﺻﻮرت ﻋﺮﺿﮫ در ﻣﻲآﻳﺪ. ﻋﺮﺿﮫ ﻛﻼﺳﻴﻚ در ﻣﻲآﻳﺪ. ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎي ﻛل ﻋرﺿﮫ ﻛل : ﻣدل ﻧﺋو ﻛﻼﺳﯾك ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ دارد.

88 -5-15 ﻣﻨﺤﻨﻲ ﻓﯿﻠﯿﭙﺲ ) (b u ﻧﺮخ ﺗﻮرم و ﻧﺮخ و ﺑﺮﻋﻜﺲ اﺳﺖ. ) (a π π u ﻣﺪت. در ﺑﻠﻨﺪﻣﺪت و ﻧﺮخ ﻛﮫ اﺳﺖ. ﺑﮫ اﻳﻦ ﻣﺴﺘﻠﺰم ﭘﺬﻳﺮ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎي ﻛل ﻋرﺿﮫ ﻛل : ﻣدل ﻧﺋو ﻛﻼﺳﯾك ارﺗﺒﺎط ﻣﻨﻔﻲ ﺗﻮرم

89 -6-15 اﻋﻤﺎل ﺳﯿﺎﺳﺖ در ﻣﺪل ﻧﺌﻮﻛﻼﺳﯿﻚ P ASN اﺛﺮات ﺑﺮ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ و ﻗﻴﻤﺖ در ﻣﺪل ﻧﺌﻮﻛﻼﺳﻴﻚ و ﺑﮫ دﻟﻴﻞ ﺛﺒﺎت. در ﻣﺪل ﻣﺎزاد و وﺟﻮد ﻋﺮﺿﮫ ﻗﻮيﺗﺮ اﺳﺖ. ASk Y از ﻓﺸﺎر. B Y3 Y2 ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎ ﺗﻮﺳﻂ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ و ﺑﺨﺶ دﻳﮕﺮ ﺗﻮﺳﻂ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎي ﻛل ﻋرﺿﮫ ﻛل : ﻣدل ﻧﺋو ﻛﻼﺳﯾك. A Y1 ﻣﻲﺷﻮد. P2 P1

90 ھزﯾﻧﮫ ھﺎي دوﻟت دﺳﺗﻣزد اﺳﻣﻲ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎي ﻣﺣﺻول ﺳطﺢ ﻗﯾﻣت ھﺎ دﺳﺗﻣزد ﺣﻘﯾ ﻘﻲ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎي ﻧﯾروي ﻛﺎر ﻋرﺿﮫ ﻧﯾروي ﻛﺎر ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎي ﺳرﻣﺎﯾﮫ ﮔذاري ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎي ﻣﺻرف ﺧﺻوﺻﻲ ﻋرﺿﮫ ﺣﻘﯾﻘﻲ ﭘول ﺣﺟم ا ﺳﻣﻲ ﭘول اﺷﺗﻐﺎل ﻋرﺿﮫ ﻣﺣﺻول ﻧرخ ﺑﮭره ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎي ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻼﺗﻲ ﭘول درآﻣد ﻋﻤﺪﻩ در اﺛﺮ اﻋﻤﺎل ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺖ اﻳﺠﺎد ﺷﺪﻩ در ﻧﻤﻮدار ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﺷﺪﻩ و از ﺳﻮي دﻳﮕﺮ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ از ﻳﻚ ﺳﻮ ﺑﺎﻋﺚ ﻧﺌﻮﻛﻼﺳﻴﻚ. ﺑﺮاﻳﻨﺪ اﻳﻦ دو اﺛﺮ اﺳﺖ. ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎ ﻣﻴﮕﺮدد. ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎي ﻛل ﻋرﺿﮫ ﻛل : ﻣدل ﻧﺋو ﻛﻼﺳﯾك در ﻳﻚ ﻣﺪل ﺶ از

91 اﻳﺠﺎد ﺷﺪﻩ در ﻧﻤﻮدار ﻋﻤﺪﻩ در اﺛﺮ اﻋﻤﺎل ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺖ در ﻳﻚ ﻣﺪل ﻧﺌﻮﻛﻼﺳﻴﻚ. ﺣ ﺟم ا ﺳﻣﻲ ﭘول + ﭘول ﻧرخ ﺑﮭره - ﺳطﺢ ﻗﯾ ﻣت ھﺎ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎي ﺳرﻣﺎﯾﮫﮔذاري ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎي ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻼﺗﻲ + ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎي ﻣﺣﺻول ﻋرﺿﮫ ﻣﺣﺻول ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎي ﻛل ﻋرﺿﮫ ﻛل : ﻣدل ﻧﺋو ﻛﻼﺳﯾك

92 Refrences Slides from the Book: Macroeconomics by Bernanke and Abel: Copyrighted: 2011 Pearson Addison-Wesley Slides from Dr Masood Nili Class notes: Principles of Economics. Copyrighted material.

Chapter 9: The IS-LM/AD-AS Model: A General Framework for Macroeconomic Analysis

Chapter 9: The IS-LM/AD-AS Model: A General Framework for Macroeconomic Analysis Yulei Luo SEF of HKU March 31, 2015 Luo, Y. (SEF of HKU) ECON2102CD/2220CD: Intermediate Macro March 31, 2015 1 / 36 Chapter