The revision of MSITS : Outline

Transcription

1 Statistics on Trade in Services: New Developments. The revised Manual on Statistics of international Trade in services. (MSITS 2010) OECD Statistics Directorate Main Sources WTO training module Tad seminar 29 November-30 November The revision of MSITS : Outline General overview and structure of the Manual. Transactions between residents and non residents. (Chapter 3). The main changes in EBOPS Major challenge: Focus on Goods for processing Summary of main recommendations TIS at OECD Foreign Affiliates trade Statistics (Chapter 4). Usefulness of FATS Main principles for the recording of FATS variables Economic variables Attribution (classification) of FATS variables Compilation FATS at OECD 1

2 General overview of MSITS 2010 Manual on Statistics of International Trade in Services (MSITS) first published in Aim : provide clearer, more detailed and comprehensive guidance for the measurement of international supply of service. MSITS 2010 adopted by UNSC this February Still under edition at UNSD. Outline of the Manual 1/2 Chapter I General introduction and foundations Chapter II Conceptual framework Chapter III Transactions between residents and non-residents Chapter IV Foreign affiliates statistics Chapter V Modes of supply NEW 2

3 Outline of the Manual 2/2 Annex I: 2010 Extended Balance of Payments Services Classification (EBOPS 2010). Annex II: ISIC Rev. 4 Categories for Foreign Affiliates in services (ICFA Rev.1) Annex III: Extract from the General Agreement on Trade in Services Annex IV: Services Sectoral Classification List - GNS/W/120 Annex V: Clarifying the Relationship Between MSITS 2010 And Tourism Statistics International Recommendations NEW Online annexes (not finalised) 1. EBOPS, CPC, Ver.2, GNS/W/120 correspondence tables. 2. ICFA EBOPS correspondance tables 3. EBOPS-BPM6 correspondence table 3

4 Conceptual frameworks of the MSITS /2 Constructed, with some elaboration on two basic frameworks: 1. for trade between resident and nonresidents: IMF BPM6 Chapter 10 on services which was elaborated in close cooperation with the Interagency Task Force on Statistics of International trade in Services (TFSITS) In MSITS 2010, same information as in BPM6 chapter 10, but more detailed. Conceptual framework of MSITS /2 2. For foreign affiliates statistics: Concepts and definitions are consistent with SNA 2008, Handbook on Economic Globalisation Indicators (HEGI), The OECD Benchmark Definition of Foreign Direct Investment 4th edition (BD4) Regulation (EC) No 716/2007 of the European Parliament and of the Council on community statistics on the structure and activity of foreign affiliates. 4

5 MSITS Chapter 3 Transactions between residents and non residents. The Balance of Payments Where are the services transactions in the BOP? BOP Current account Goods Services Primary Income Secondary Income 12 components Capital & financial account

6 BPM6 Main Services Components 1. Manufacturing services on physical inputs owned by others 7. Financial services 8. Charges for the use of intellectual property n.i.e. 2. Maintenance and repair services n.i.e. 3. Transportation 4. Travel 5. Construction 6. Insurance and pension services 9. Telecommunications, computer and information services 10. Other business services 11. Personal, cultural and recreational services 12. Government goods and 11 services n.i.e. Main conceptual changes In an attempt to better capture globalisation and its statistical implications, there is a stricter application of the change of ownership principle both in revised SNA and BoP Manuals. 6

7 Main changes on Trade in Services recording in BPM6 1/3 Among the most notable changes: Fees for processing goods to be included in services New name: Manufacturing services on physical inputs owned by others Major processing In BPM5, a change of ownership of goods was imputed Merchanting transactions to be treated as trade in goods for the economy of the merchant Purchases negative exports Re-sales exports Main changes on Trade in Services recording in BPM6 2/3 High value goods acquired by travelers to be recorded as merchandise rather than under travel services (previously could be doublecounted) Supplementary breakdown for travel The sales of research and development such as patents and copyrights, are treated as produced assets and included in services; previously in the capital account as nonproduced assets. 7

8 Main changes on Trade in Services recording in BPM6 3/3 Financial intermediation services indirectly measured (FISIM) to be recorded as a service Margin between interest payable or receivable and the reference rate on loans and deposits Pure interest included in primary income Insurance services to be calculated taking account of the volatility of claims. Also, premium supplements taken account in estimating services Major challenges New treatment of goods for processing mean that statisticians have a major communication challenge ahead as this change has as a consequence important changes in trade balances as in the case of China, and Hong-Kong, China. Also treatment of FISIM and Insurance services are difficult issues which have to be dealt with in the future MSITS 2010 (online) Compilation Guide. 8

9 Focus on Goods for processing 1. Manufacturing services on physical inputs owned by others 7. Financial services 8. Charges for the use of intellectual property n.i.e. 2. Maintenance and repair services n.i.e. 3. Transportation 4. Travel 5. Construction 6. Insurance and pension services 9. Telecommunications, computer and information services 10. Other business services 11. Personal, cultural and recreational services 12. Government goods and 17 services n.i.e. Calculation of Chinese total Goods and services credit and debit following BPM6. Goods credit BPM6= Goods credits BPM5- goods for processing BPM5 credits Goods debit BPM6= Goods debit BPM5- goods for processing BPM5 debit Services credits BPM6= services credit BPM5+net goods for processing. Services debits BPM6= services debits BPM5 9

10 The assumption Assumption : China is a net exporter of processing of goods services i.e. (the difference between BPM5 Goods for processing credit less debit is entirely allocated to services credit.) Broad brush estimates of the series following the BPM6 definition China: Impact of implementing the new international Statistical Standards on Goods for Processing 2009 US$million BPM5 GOODS: Credit GOODS: Debit GOODS: Net BPM5 goods net: BPM5 GOODS FOR PROCESSING: Credit GOODS FOR PROCESSING: Debit GOODS FOR PROCESSING: Net Goods for processing net: BPM6 GOODS: Credit GOODS: Debit GOODS: Net BPM6 Goods net BPM5 SERVICES: Credit SERVICES: Debit SERVICES:Net BPM5 services net BPM6 SERVICES: Credit SERVICES: Debit SERVICES:Net BPM6 services net : BPM5 GOODS AND SERVICES:Credit GOODS AND SERVICES:Debit GOODS AND SERVICES:Net BPM6 GOODS AND SERVICES:Credit GOODS AND SERVICES:Debit GOODS AND SERVICES:Net

11 A transformed picture of trade. Under current assumption: For 2009, balance of trade in goods would be revised from a surplus of 249 US$bn to a deficit of 31 US$bn Balance of trade in services would be revised from from a deficit of -29 to a surplus of 251 US$bn Balance of trade in goods and services would remain at a surplus of +220 US$bn Hong-Kong : Impact of implementing the new international Statistical Standards on Goods for Processing and Merchanting. Source : Strategy for implementing Recommendations on Goods for Processing and Merchanting in BPM6 The case for Hong-Kong,

12 Impact of Goods for Processing on HK international trade For 2006, balance of trade in goods would be revised from a deficit of -14 US$bn to a surplus of +32 US$bn Balance of trade in services would be revised from from a surplus of +36 to a deficit of -10 US$bn Balance of trade in goods and services would remain at a surplus of +22 US$bn More to be taken into account to get a better estimate of impact of change The value of manufacturing services on physical inputs owned by others is not necessarily the same as the difference between the value of goods sent for processing and the value of goods after processing. Cost of overheads ( intermediate goods, financing, know how should be taken into account.) Suppl. survey on intermediate consumption for processing goods is planned in Hong Kong. 12

13 Summary of recommendations 1/2 1. BPM6 recommendations on the principles of recording (residence valuation,time of recording, currency of recording and conversion should be followed). 2. Compilation according to EBOPS Highest priority level of BPM6. 3. By partner country for 12 main components Summary of recommendations 2/2 4. Total services transactions compiled separately for transaction with related and unrelated parties. 5. Each EBOPS components should be allocated either to one dominant mode, or whether there is no single dominant mode, the most significant mode of supply. (this is accorded a low priority). 13

14 OECD trade in services datasets TIS: Trade in services by Category of Services (jointly published by Eurostat and OECD since 1998) 33 OECD + BRIICS EBOPS items TISP: Trade in services by Partner country 31 OECD (- CHE - ISL) + HKG + RUS EBOPS items broken down by partner country (278) PCs aggregated also in continents and in main geographic/economic groupings EBOPS 2010: A draft first services hierarchy was created with the available information in terms of labels and codes Four digits codes have been created for the items for which codes are still missing The hierarchy will be changed if inappropriate We are testing it, also in a technical sense, while uploading Australian trade in service bilateral data, published since last year following BPM6 14

15 MSITS Chapter 4 Foreign Affiliates Trade Statistics Typical questions on globalization and the monitoring of GATS Is a part of the economy controlled by foreigners? To which extent? Which sectors? By which countries? What are the characteristics of foreign affiliates compared to national firms? What is the relative importance of mode 3? What is the extent of trade covered by mode 3 commercial presence? 15

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17 «Control»: an Essential Concept for FATS FATS compiled for foreign-controlled subset of foreign affiliates Control defined in Framework for Direct Investment Relationships (FDIR) BPM6 Control deemed to exist if majority ownership (i.e. control of more than 50%) of the voting power at each stage of ownership chain. Usefulness of FATS What are FATS useful for? Focus on services measuring commercial presence (mode 3) Help understand the phenomenon of globalisation. What do FATS measure? Range of indicators on the activity of controlled foreign affiliates (>50% of voting power;) Inward and outward FATS Affiliates producing goods, services In MSITS: with a particular focus on services 17

18 FATS and the International Supply of Services Primary interest in MSITS: sales (turnover) and/or output Most directly support the monitoring of commitments under GATS Additional information generally required for adequate assessment of economic effects of affiliate operation As a starting point: inward FATS 18

19 Economic Variables for FATS Geographical Attribution of Inward FATS (1/2) 19

20 Geographical Attribution of Inward FATS (2/2) Geographical Attribution of Outward FATS 20

21 Classification by Activity and by Product FATS variables classified as a first priority on an activity basis Foreign affiliates classified by their Primary activity According to ISIC Categories for Foreign Affiliates (ICFA) Long-term priority products FATS variables such as sales, imports and exports should also be broken-down by product according to EBOPS (at least total goods and total services) ICFA can be linked with EBOPS (to a limited extent) ISIC Categories for Foreign Affiliates in services (ICFA) - extracts 21

22 Collection Systems for FATS Statistics 2 different populations, requiring different approaches Inward: enterprises surveyed directly on their activity (easier to collect) Outward: resident parent companies surveyed on the activity of their affiliates abroad Different systems for collecting FATS statistics Surveys collecting FATS data Identify FATS in statistics on resident enterprises Only for Inward FATS Links with FDI in both cases (identification of the FATS population) 22

23 Existing Statistics on Resident Enterprises Only for inward FATS Which sources? Existing statistics on resident enterprises (employment, turnover ) How can FATS statistics be obtained? Identify inward FATS population within resident enterprises, and Aggregate data collected across the foreign-owned population of resident enterprises Foreign Affiliates Trade in Services (FATS) Statistics FATS statistics are relatively underdeveloped compared with BOP Data collection expanding at Eurostat, OECD and UNCTAD OECD FATS statistics database covers 13 variables (including sales, value added, employment, exports and imports) Inward and outward FATS By activity (not ICFA) By partner Large number of countries (25 inward, 17 outward) and industries Specific data on parent companies National total data performance gaps between foreign affiliates and domestic firms 23

24 FATS Compilation Guidance Compilation guidance needs to be developed OECD Handbook (HEGI) provides some compilation guidance in chapter 3 Eurostat Recommendations for the collection of Foreign Affiliates Statistics Experience and role of UNCTAD Role of the Task Force on Statistics of International Trade in Services Status of the collection of Foreign Affiliates Trade in services (FATS) at the OECD statistics 1/2 Inward (25) Outward (17) Australia EMP, VA NOE,TURN,EMP,WS Austria NOE, EMP, TURN, VA,WS,RD,RES, GFCF,X,M,GOP,PROF TURN, EMP, IFM,IFX Belgium TURN, EMP TURN, EMP Canada RD,RES EMP,TURN Chile No No Czech Republic NOE,TURN,EMP,VA,WS,RD,RES,GFCF No Denmark No No Finland TURN, EMP, VA,WS,GFCF,GOP,PROF NOE,TURN, EMP France EMP,TURN,VA,X,M,NOE,WS,PROF NOE,TURN Germany TURN,EMP,NOE TURN,EMP,NOE Greece TURN,EMP TURN,EMP,NOE Hungary TURN,EMP,VA,NOE,WS,RD, RES,GFCF,GOP,PROF TURN,EMP,WS,NOE Iceland No No Ireland NOE,EMP,TURN,VA,WS,RD, No Israel No No Italy TURN,EMP,WS,VA,X,M,NOE,RD,GFCF IFM,IFX NOE,TURN,EMP Japan TURN,EMP,VA,M,X,NOE,IFX,IFM NOE,TURN,EMP,VA,M,X,WS,RD Korea No No Luxembourg TURN,EMP No Mexico No No 24

25 Status of the collection of FATS statistics at the OECD 2/2 Inward (25) Outward (17) Netherlands TURN,EMP,VA,M,X,NOE,GFCF,IFX,IFM, WS,GOP,PROF No New Zealand No No Norway TURN,EMP,NOE,VA,WS,GFCF,GOP No Poland NOE,TURN,EMP,RD,RES,X,M,IFX,IFM No Portugal NOE,TURN, EMP,VA,WS,RD,RES, GFCF,M,X,GOP,PROF NOE,TURN, EMP, VA,M,X Slovak Republic NOE,EMP,TURN,VA,WS,GFCF,RD,RES, GOP,PROF TURN,EMP,NOE Slovenia NOE,EMP,TURN,VA,WS,GFCF NOE,EMP,TURN,VA,WS,RD,RES, GFCF,X,M,IFX,IFM Spain NOE,TURN,EMP,VA,WS,M,X,GFCF,RD,RES No Sweden NOE,TURN, EMP, VA,WS,GFCF,M,X NOE,EMP Switzerland NOE,EMP EMP Turkey No No United kingdom TURN,NOE,VA,NOE,WS No United States TURN,EMP,VA,M,X,IFX,IFM,RD,NOE,WS, RES,GFCF,PROF TURN,EMP,VA,M,X,IFX,IFM,RD,NOE,WS, RES,GFCF,PROF X: Total exports M: Total imports NOE: Number of enterprises or establishments EMP: Number of employees TURN: Turnover VA: Value added GFCF: Gross Fixed Capital Formation WS: Compensation of employees IFM: intra-firm exports IFX: intra-form imports RD: R&D expenditure RES: Number of researchers GOP: Production (gross output) PROF: Gross Operating Surplus Core recommendations Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) statistics: Complement to FATS statistics Flows, income and stocks; Broken down by industry FATS statistics: main basic variables Basic variables: sales, employment, value added, exports and Imports of goods and services, number of enterprises ; compiled by industry (ISIC rev4); inward and outward FATS Inward FATS often easier to collect 25

26 Thanks for your attention!!! 26