LDN Market Barometer

Transcription

1 LDN Market Barometer 1 st Quarter 21 and forecast for 2 nd Quarter 21 Introduction This is the sixth quarterly report into the state of the IT training market produced for the members of the Learning Directors Network. The data is drawn from a number of leading training providers representing more than 2% of the third-party IT training market. The report, compiled by Pardo Fox Ltd, is based around a series of index numbers indicating growth or decline of various slices of the market, not absolute numbers or volumes. The scale ranges from +5 to -5, where represents neither growth nor decline, and +5 represents growth in excess of 1% for all training companies and -5 represents decline in excess of 1% for all training companies compared to the same quarter in the previous year. Revenue refers to training delivered in the quarter and not bookings for future courses. All data shown in this report pre-dating Q4 of 28 is the copyright of IT Skills Research. It was compiled using the same methodology, but note that the section of this survey that was previously called E-learning was renamed (or replaced with) Learning Technologies in order to reflect the growing use of technology in the teaching of IT and in its wider use for managing learning. Institute of IT Training / Learning Directors Network 21 Page 1

2 LDN Market Barometer 1Q1 Overview Precisely as forecast in the last Market Barometer, the unweighted index of total IT training revenue for Q1 was just negative at -3, the sixth successive quarter of decline. No company reported flat revenues; the number of companies reporting growth was just outweighed by those reporting a decline; but the changes realised in Q1 ranged from a fall of 3% to an increase of over 1% (in the case of a relatively new start-up company), combining to produce a weighted index of -17 which translates to approximately 4% down on the same quarter last year. The forecast for the current quarter is positive, with the majority of companies expecting business to be better than last year s Q2 by about 3%, and the outlook for the full year has improved since last quarter: last quarter s prediction of zero growth has been raised to overall growth of 2%. Revenue and Profit Indices 2Q9 3Q9 4Q9 1Q1 2Q1 Total IT Training Revenue - unweighted (37) (39) (1) (3) 1 Total IT Training Revenue - weighted (46) (44) () (17) 3 Total IT Training Profit (18) (24) 5 1 The chart below shows how total IT training revenue has grown or declined in each quarter over the last four years. The solid bar indicates the average growth index of the contributing companies; the line graph represents the index number when due allowance has been given to the relative size of those companies. 5 Total IT Training Revenue Q2 6Q4 7Q2 7Q4 8Q2 8Q4 9Q2 9Q4 1Q2 6Q3 7Q1 7Q3 8Q1 8Q3 9Q1 9Q3 1Q1 The dots in the 1Q2 column indicate the forecast rate of growth compared to the second quarter of 29. Institute of IT Training / Learning Directors Network 21 Page 2

3 LDN Market Barometer 1Q1 The training company profit index has gone positive ahead of the revenue index, and the forecast for Q2 of 21 shows an improving position. 5 IT Training Profit Q2 6Q4 7Q2 7Q4 8Q2 8Q4 9Q2 9Q4 1Q2 6Q3 7Q1 7Q3 8Q1 8Q3 9Q1 9Q3 1Q1 There is no weighted index for profit. Institute of IT Training / Learning Directors Network 21 Page 3

4 LDN Market Barometer 1Q1 Instructor-led Training Scheduled courses continue to struggle more than one-customer ones which are now at the same level as last year. Unusually, revenue from soft skills courses fell at a faster rate than end-user and technical courses. Instructor-led Training Indices 2Q9 3Q9 4Q9 1Q1 End-user (28) (4) (14) (5) Technical (36) (41) (18) (5) Personal, Professional & Business skills (31) (37) 5 (1) 2Q1 Public (scheduled) courses (37) (41) (23) (12) On-site (one-customer) courses (14) (3) (9) (1) Total ILT Revenue - unweighted (34) (41) (17) (7) 7 Total ILT Revenue - weighted (44) (45) (37) (22) 2 5 ILT Revenue Q2 6Q4 6Q3 7Q2 7Q4 8Q2 8Q4 9Q2 9Q4 1Q2 7Q1 7Q3 8Q1 8Q3 9Q1 9Q3 1Q1 Institute of IT Training / Learning Directors Network 21 Page 4

5 LDN Market Barometer 1Q1 Learning Technologies Revenue Growth in learning technologies revenues outstripped all other areas and exceeded last quarter s forecast, and the forecast is for further growth in Q2. Under the definitions: Generic Content includes generic courseware, templates, and models Tools includes authoring, performance support, virtual labs, simulation, collaboration, modelling, and assessment tools Infrastructure includes LMS/ LCMS/CLS, enterprise content management, performance management, competence management, e-skills portfolio management, social networks Development: the facilitation of client content and bespoke development of solutions using learning technologies Consultancy: services that support the client in the application of learning technologies - includes strategy, vision and direction, engagement models, advice and guidance. Learning Technologies Indices 2Q9 3Q9 4Q9 1Q1 Generic content (1) (19) 9 17 Tools (2) 3 19 Infrastructure 2 (13) 28 Development 5 (13) 12 3 Consultancy (5) (11) Q1 Total Learning Tech Revenues - unweighted (17) Total Learning Tech Revenues - weighted (6) (33) Learning Technologies Revenue Q2 6Q4 6Q3 7Q2 7Q4 8Q2 8Q4 9Q2 9Q4 1Q2 7Q1 7Q3 8Q1 8Q3 9Q1 9Q3 1Q1 Institute of IT Training / Learning Directors Network 21 Page 5

6 LDN Market Barometer 1Q1 Training Support Services Revenues from training support services are again very nearly flat. 5 Training Support Services Revenue Q2 6Q4 6Q3 7Q2 7Q4 8Q2 8Q4 9Q2 9Q4 1Q2 7Q1 7Q3 8Q1 8Q3 9Q1 9Q3 1Q1 Training Support Services Indices 2Q9 3Q9 4Q9 1Q1 Outsourcing and MTS (28) (38) Pre- and post-training consultancy 3 () 7 4 2Q1 Total TSS Revenues - unweighted (3) (38) (2) 4 Total TSS Revenues - weighted (35) (46) (2) (5) (1) Institute of IT Training / Learning Directors Network 21 Page 6

7 LDN Market Barometer 1Q1 Certification IT Certification for IT professionals increased in Q1, but end-user certification failed to build on last quarter s modest recovery. 5 IT Certification - IT Professional End-user Combined Forecast -5 8Q2 8Q3 8Q4 9Q1 9Q2 9Q3 9Q4 1Q1 1Q2 IT Certification Indices 2Q9 3Q9 4Q9 1Q1 IT Professionals (1) 3 7 End-users (17) (33) 2 (13) 2Q1 Total Certification (1) On the next page are some of the comments from the contributors to the survey. Institute of IT Training / Learning Directors Network 21 Page 7

8 LDN Market Barometer 1Q1 Which subject groups saw the biggest increases or decreases in your training revenues last quarter? VMWare, Citrix, e-learning Increase: subject specific courses, installation & technical certifications Biggest decrease was in Public Schedule courses Data centre, sales competency Increases: public sector tenders, MS Office 27 conversion New product line Public scheduled courses way down, bespoke e-learning up Storage training increased, legacy operating systems decreased Increase in private courses, decrease in public courses Increased ILT Other comments In response to the question Have you noticed any recent or unusual changes in the way your business is generated, such as enrolment patterns, or do you have any comment on the state of the IT training market generally? Training is still booked last minute and there is a reluctance to invest in this area. We have noticed desperate levels of discounts on public schedule training from the big training companies that suggest they are all struggling to fill rooms. There appears to be an overall inability to sell value rather than just price so that the market is commoditised more than ever - not helped by oversupply. The most common complaint we hear is high cancellation rates: if training companies stopped giving away these high discounts they wouldn't need such high fill rates and schedules would be more reliable and everyone would be a winner. Following last year s move to onsite training we saw a big swing back to scheduled training over the last 3 months Late bookings on the increase, so when in the month revenues still increase Good quarter thanks to a couple of big projects. Uncertain future as public sector faces cuts. Enrolment times are shorter than in previous years. Every training request seems to be ASAP Booking cycle is still very short. Seeing some late cancellations and re-booking too. Market seems very flat and difficult to enthuse. Discounts don't work when there is limited or no budget in the first place! Institute of IT Training / Learning Directors Network 21 Page 8

9 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 1Q1 1Q2 1Q3 1Q4 2Q1 2Q2 2Q3 2Q4 3Q1 3Q2 3Q3 3Q4 4Q1 4Q2 4Q3 4Q4 5Q1 5Q2 5Q3 5Q4 6Q1 6Q2 6Q3 6Q4 7Q1 7Q2 7Q3 7Q4 8Q1 8Q2 8Q3 8Q4 9Q1 9Q2 9Q3 9Q4 1Q1 Decline Growth Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 1Q1 1Q2 1Q3 1Q4 2Q1 2Q2 2Q3 2Q4 3Q1 3Q2 3Q3 3Q4 4Q1 4Q2 4Q3 4Q4 5Q1 5Q2 5Q3 5Q4 6Q1 6Q2 6Q3 6Q4 7Q1 7Q2 7Q3 7Q4 8Q1 8Q2 8Q3 8Q4 9Q1 9Q2 9Q3 9Q4 1Q1 Decline Growth LDN Market Barometer 1Q1 History The charts below show the index numbers for the past nine years, revealing the depth of the current recession. 5 Total IT Training Revenue IT Training Profit - -5 Institute of IT Training / Learning Directors Network 21 Page 9