Strathcona County 2014 Retail Market Analysis Final Report

Transcription

1 Strathcona County 2014 Retail Market Analysis Final Report January

2 1.0 Study Overview & Objectives Thomas Consultants Inc. were appointed by Strathcona County Economic Development and Tourism to update a Retail Market Analysis that was originally conducted in The Mustel Group was used as a sub consultant to perform a resident survey in order to sample population behaviour. The objective of this study is to identify the supportable retail supply; optimal retail role & function; retail market voids; retail land use allocation and consumer behavior in Strathcona County for the purposes of informing the County s economic development policy with respect to retail land uses. 2.0 Strathcona County Retail Market Context Strathcona County has a sizable population of high income households (nationwide it ranks as the 14 th highest income census subdivision) with a significant per capita retail spend. The population of Strathcona County is well educated and employed across various professional career fields. With five thoroughfares connecting to Edmonton and a large number of Strathcona residents working in Edmonton, many shop in Edmonton either due to proximity to work, or drive specifically to Edmonton for their retail needs and desires. Determining the level of retail leakage and how to curb it if it exists, is a fundamental question of this study. 3.0 Real Market: Supply Analysis Strathcona County features a total of 2.95 million sf of retail operating primarily within 6 key concentrated retail zones: Broadmoor Boulevard; Wye Road; Sherwood Park Centre; Clover Bar Road East; Baseline Road and Emerald Hills. This retail is separated into 4 distinct formats: community-scale mall; community centres; neighborhood centres and ancillary retail. The majority of this retail is identified as Comparison retail (1.5 million sf); followed by Convenience retail (890,000 sf); Food & Beverage retail (391,000 sf); & Leisure & Entertainment retail (161,000 sf). 4.0 Retail Market: Demand Analysis Total retail floor space demanded from Strathcona County residents in 2013 is calculated at 3.5 million sf. This is forecasted to grow to 4.6 million sf by When adding for inflow from the east & west, a baseline capture scenario adds an additional 292,000 sf of retail in 2013 and 2014, climbing to just under 370,000 sf in

3 5.0 Retail Sales Gap Analysis & Recommendations Based on the Supply/Demand analysis, it has been determined that Strathcona County retail market in 2013 experienced a retail sales leakage of roughly 17% 1. This figure increased to 23% when accounting for inflow from north eastern Edmonton communities as well as the rural population west of Strathcona. Retail leakage varies considerably across different retail categories. Some categories such as convenience are underrepresented such as grocery & specialty food and leisure & entertainment (30% and 58% negative outflow respectively) while other categories such as casual/sit-down restaurants and home furnishings & accessories (51% and 17% positive outflow respectively). There is an additional 598,000 sf of retail warranted in Strathcona County today, mostly across convenience retail, as well as leisure & entertainment, which are currently underrepresented on the local market. An enclosed regional mall format is not recommended for the County as it is expected that some sales leakage for such formats would occur. Recommended retail formats for Strathcona County include hybrid-style super-community, community, and neighborhood centres that add to and improve upon dated and underperforming retail assets with new to market tenants. In terms of land use requirements at 0.3 FSR, a total of 7 acres in 2013 growing to 83 acres in 2033 (6-10 acres per year). At 0.4 FSR, a total of 5 acres in 2013 growing to 63 acres in 2033 (5-7 acres per year). 1 This is slightly lower than the 31% which was determined through Mustel s survey (see Appendix B). 3

4 Retail Inventory Changes as of December 31, 2014 Strathcona County Economic Development diligently tracks and analyzes commercial development in order to accommodate economic growth through attracting and expanding business activity. (See Appendix A for January 2015 detailed notes on retail inventory update) During the 2014 calendar year, 53,400 square feet of gross leasable area was occupied by new retail tenants. 20,800 square feet remains available for occupancy. 18 new retail stores (aforementioned 53,400 sf) opened in new buildings in the past year. New Retail Stock SF (GLA) Complete / Occupied (2014) 53,400 Complete / Vacant (2014) 20,769 Under Construction 79,648 Development Permit and Intended 45,918 Total 199,735 Tenant Name SF (GLA) Old Navy 14,858 Mastermind 5,036 Emerald Hills Dental Centre 4,225 Justice & Brothers 3,750 La Vie en Rose 3,750 Pet Valu 3,039 Pet Valu 2,200 Fatburger 2,199 Cherish 2,000 Noodlebox 2,000 Memphis Blues 1,821 Relush 1,505 Rush Nutrition 1,307 Sally Beauty 1,276 Coco Nails 1,226 Swish Flowers 1,204 Marlin Travel 1,006 Great Clips 998 4

5 Report Structure 1.0 Study Overview & Objectives 2.0 Strathcona County Retail Market Context 3.0 Real Market: Supply Analysis 4.0 Retail Market: Demand Analysis 5.0 Retail Sales Gap Analysis & Recommendations Appendix A: Retail Inventory Changes as of December 31, 2014 Appendix B: Mustel Group Strathcona 2013 Retail Market Research 5