Digital Economy: Prepared by TMB Analytics Date: 7 Feb 2017

Transcription

1 Digital Economy: Prepared by TMB Analytics Date: 7 Feb 2017

2 Example HOW DIGITAL TRANSFORMED AN INDUSTRY 2

3 What did they see? Source: 3

4 Photography Industry stays, but not all players survive That s cute but don t tell anyone about it Eastman Kodak Share Price (US$) Kodak executives couldn't foresee a future in which film had no role in image capture at all, nor come to grips with the lower profit margins or faster competitive pace of hightech industries (LA Times, December 2011) -100% For nearly a century, no company commercialised the camera as successfully as Kodak The advent of digital photography led to 2 distinct but related disruptions commoditisation of digital cameras and dramatically reduced physical printing The company filed for chapter 11 in January 2012 Source: Bloomberg, press articles, Strategy& analysis 4

5 Pictures that Kodak couldn t see Photography remains strong! Source: 5

6 Example 2 HOW DIGITAL TRANSFORMED ANOTHER INDUSTRY 6

7 What did they see? Source: 7

8 Movie rental industry is still booming, just not with Blockbuster. We have not seen a business model that s financially viable long-term in this arena. Online rental services are serving a niche market (USD$ Mn) 5,933 5,722 5,522 5,300 5,100 4,000 2,163 1,205 1,365 1, Bankruptcy Blockbuster refused to cannibalise Blockbuster was the largest provider of video rentals in America, with a company value of $8.4 Bn 1990s Availability of on-demand movie / TV content from players, including Netflix, significantly reduced the need to endure trips to brick and mortar video rentals stores 2000: Blockbuster turned down a chance to acquire Netflix for only $50 Mn 2010: Blockbuster filed for bankruptcy, with a company valuation of only $24 Mn Source: Press articles, Strategy& analysis 8

9 Stories that Blockbuster didn t lived to see Movies rental thrives Source: 9

10 Ask not what Digital Economy can do for you ASK WHAT YOU CAN DO IN DIGITAL ECONOMY 10

11 8 Success Factors to Digital Economy Myanmar Cambodia Lao PDR Indonesia 1 Emerging Transitional Advanced 2 Argentina India Kenya Vietnam Brazil Affordability Infrastructure 3 Philippines South Africa Mexico Thailand 2016 China Italy Malaysia Spain Russia 5 6 Singapore Germany 2021 Sweden Japan Finland France Innovative Products 7 Advanced Technical Skills Government Electronics Services Consumer/Business Usage 4 Ease of Doing Business Policy and Regulation 8 Netherlands US South Korea UK Source: World Economic Forum and TMB Analytics -11-

12 Rising Market Access Internet and Social Network Will Soon Become Key Channels to Economy Thailand s Internet Users (million) Thailand s Social Network User Penetration (%) Thailand s Internet Penetration (%) E 2021F Global Internet Penetration (%) Source: Statista, NECTEC, and TMB Analytics -12-

13 Retail e-commerce Market Thailand 340 bn USD Retail Trade China 4,200 bn USD US 4,700 bn USD 4% 16% 8% e-commerce share (B2C) Source: ETDA and TMB Analytics -13-

14 Thailand e-commerce Sales by sectors Manufacturing 15% IT&Telco 13% Transportation 3% Hospitality 17 Computers&Parts 17 B2B 59% e-commerce 2.1 Tn Baht* B2C 22% Cosmetic Products Fashion Products Transport&Telco Furniture B2G 19% Online Store Food&Beverages 2 4 Hospitality 28% Sport&Toy 2 Source: 2015 ETDA and TMB Analytics e-auction & Procurement 19% Others Trade 19 *Data as of

15 e-commerce Will Expand 2.9X in 6 Years 6.0 Tn Baht 2.9X +19% B2C B2G +20% +19% B2B +21% *Note F 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F 2021F represents compound annual growth rate (CAGR) Source: ETDA and TMB Analytics -15-

16 e-commerce Will Boost e-payment, Reduced Cash Usage Value of Thailand s Payments (Tn Baht) % +6% 30% +11% 53% e-payment 72% 70% 4% 1% 47% Cash F Source : McKinsey, PwC, BOT, and TMB Analytics *Note represents compound annual growth rate (CAGR) 17

17 Brick-and-Mortar Channel Will Soon Be Replaced by Digital, Even Banks 1 2 Branches Grew at A Slower Pace, Especially in Medium-sized Banks Unit: Number of Branches 4,200 +8% +7% +5% +8% 6,000 +3% 7,000 +5% Small Banks 0% Medium Banks +4% Large Banks 0.1 While Transactions via Internet & Mobile Phone Surged Up Unit: Number of Transactions (Billion) '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 ' E 25% Digital surged exponentially 2.4X % Digital channel increased to 60% in 6 Years Internet +37% 0.6 & Mobile Phone 60% Compound Annual Growth Rate ATM & Branch +8% Banks are trying to embrace changes given recent disruptive technology Source: BOT and TMB Analytics -17-

18 Thailand s Journey to Digital banking Still high potential to increase digital banking penetration Digital consumers represent more than 700 million customers across Asia Digital banking in Asia (1) (2014) Percent (%) Big rooms to increase (1) Digital banking penetration is defined as the number of users of internet or smartphone banking divided by total banking consumers in each country; only urban consumers are included SOURCE: McKinsey Asia Personal Financial Services Survey,

19 Accessibility, e-commerce, e-payment Are Key Factors Driving Digitization Forward Internet Users F 38 mn Greater accessibility to the Internet with enhanced usage CAGR +4% 48 mn Internet Users e-commerce 2.1 tn High growth prospects over the medium-term CAGR +19% 6 tn e-payment 58 tn Increasing Popularity of e-commerce Induces e-payment Adoption Over Cash CAGR +11% 109 tn *Note: CAGR represents compound annual growth rate Source: World Economic Forum and TMB Analytics -19-

20 Physical to Digital: Are You Ready for Disruption? Digitization reshapes industries to the Better Customer Satisfaction Source: Company Websites and TMB Analytics -20-

21 When change is imminent, the best way to change is to Lead the change ourselves. เม อเราไม สามารถหน การเปล ยนแปลง การน าการ เปล ยนแปลงด วยต วเองเป นว ธ เปล ยนแปลงท ด ท ส ด 21