Q2 Marketing and Customer Insights Overview

Transcription

1 Q2 Marketing and Customer Insights Overview

2 CRM Universe: Jan YTD TY vs. LY In FY15 thru January, the total CRM universe has decreased by 45K (-1.3%) customers vs. LY. This is an improvement from Dec, where we were -81K customers. Acquisition continues to be a challenge. We are currently -37K (-3.4%) vs. LY. In Dec, we were down 57K customers therefore we had an increase of 20K. Reactivation figures are strong; 58K (+14.3%) customers vs. LY, which increased 12K from last month. In the 1 st half of 2015, we promoted 907K reactivation customers who responded at a 5.3% response rate. While the customer retention rate is flat to LY at nearly 33%, the actual number of customers is -66k YTD, which is an improvement of 3K from last month. 2

3 Q2 Direct Mail Results 2015 Offer Circ. Responders RR% Total Net $ (k) ADC GM% $/Circ. Margin/Circ. Profit/Circ. November Mailer 25% off entire reg. purch. w/dbcc; 20% off with other tender 1,961, , % $ 19,862 $ % $10.12 $ 5.89 $ 5.47 Frosted Pales Mailer 30% off asrpi 1,011,398 87, % $ 7,888 $ % $7.80 $ 4.51 $ 4.13 Black Friday Postcard No Offer 2,009,461 35, % $ 2,984 $ % $1.48 $ 0.87 $ 0.57 December Mailer 15-50% off entire regular priced purchase 2,950, , % $ 32,156 $ % $10.90 $ 6.27 $ 5.94 January Mailer 12/16-1/8: 20/25% off reg; 1/9-1/25: 20/25% off clearance 1,799, , % $ 21,913 $ % $12.18 $ 6.01 $ 5.71 Hot/Warm Store Mailer 20% off entire purchase, including clearance 451,006 45, % $ 3,687 $ % $8.17 $ 4.36 $ 4.02 Total 10,183,474 1,107, % $ 88,489 $ % $8.69 $ 4.83 $ Offer Circ. Responders RR% Total Net $ (k) ADC GM% $/Circ. Margin/Circ. Profit/Circ. November Mailer 25% off entire reg. purch. w/dbcc; 20% off with other tender 1,995, , % $22,853 $ % $11.45 $6.53 $6.12 Black Friday Postcard 30% off entire reg. purch. w/dbcc; 25% off with other tender 1,999,178 78, % $6,438 $ % $3.22 $1.83 $1.43 December Mailer 15-50% off entire regular priced purchase 3,100, , % $30,796 $ % $9.93 $5.74 $5.41 January Private Sale 25% off entire clr purch. w/dbcc; 20% off with other tender 2,085, , % $12,931 $ % $6.20 $3.02 $2.73 Total 9,181, , % $73,018 $ % $8.53 $4.37 $4.02 YOY Change 1,002, , % 15,471 ($6.68) 0.5% $0.16 $0.45 $0.46 YOY change % 10.9% 31.3% 18.4% 21.2% -7.7% 1.0% 1.9% 10.3% 11.4% No. Days 2015 Bouncebacks Offer Est. Circ. Responders RR% Total Net $ (k) ADS $/Circ. 22 December Gift Giving BB 15% - 50% off reg. priced purchase 1,244,890 62, % $3,181 $51.24 $ New Years Bounceback 20% off with dbcc; 15% off with other tender 1,253,811 53, % $2,990 $55.57 $ 2.38 Total 2,498, , % $6,171 $53.25 $ 2.47 No. Days 2014 Bouncebacks Offer Est. Circ. Responders RR% Total Net $ (k) ADS $/Circ. 7 November $10 Savings Card free $10 235,695 14, % $835 $56.92 $ December Gift Guide 20% off asrpi 1,179,573 35, % $1,876 $52.16 $ After Christmas Bounceback 15% - 50% off reg. priced purchase 1,111,834 33, % $2,400 $71.70 $ New Years Bounceback 20% off with dbcc; 15% off with other tender 269,605 33, % $2,189 $66.10 $ 8.12 Total 2,796, , % $7,299 $62.28 $ YOY Change -298,006-1, % -1,128 $ (9.03) $ (0.14)

4 Q2 Promotional Strategy: What we did differently... Lengthened November contacts to extend past Thanksgiving weekend the extra 7 days generated $7.3M in sales total coupon redemption rate increased to 8.4% vs. 4.0% LY. New Frosted Pales was an additional contact for top 1.0M customers prior to Thanksgiving the new category was received well but did not result in incremental spend Tested -only segment in November mailer & Black Friday these segments performed in line with mailed segments; we can potentially reallocate dm dollars to mail more deeply into the file these customers were significantly more likely to shop via e-comm rather than in-store Eliminated $10 savings card bounceback Black Friday product focus; no offer response rates and product sell through were disappointing lack of coupon as a tracking mechanism may have hurt response rates Tested Radio promotion over Black Friday weekend did not prove to be an effective traffic driver marginally effective at driving new customer acquisition Apollo stores were supported with additional circ in the December mailer response rate of 3.8% generated $117K in topline sales and $88K in profit 4

5 Q2 Promotional Strategy: What we did differently... Repositioned the Private Sale with the new Winter Blues Mailer started 14 days earlier than Private Sale panel mailer showcasing fashion vs. panel mailer with coupon card(s) only. Replaced the offer: Private Sale 20% or 25% with DBCC on clearance; TY 20%/25% on reg price for the first 2 weeks and 20%/25% on clearance for the last 2 weeks drove regular priced sales but failed to attain LY clearance levels. Timing was correct; offer needs refinement. Eliminated the After Xmas 15%-50% scratch off bounce back Extended the New Year s bounce back. Streamlining the bounce back strategy resulted in -$1.1M, but extending Winter Blues to cover the time frame more than offset sales. Introduced a new mailer to 450k of our Hot Store customers The new Hot Store mailer drove an incremental $500k in topline sales, and the tight geozone focus represents a new area of opportunity for the brand. In general, multiple contacts increase response and spend. Overlapping promotions tend to be more productive than discrete events. Putting additional coupons in her hand acts as a reminder and prompts additional visits. 5

6 TY: Mobile Black Club Friday Q2 Performance Weekend vs. 2 weeks prior VAR % Change Messages sent % Sales dollars $16.0M $11.7M $4.3M 37% Margin dollars $9.28M $6.7M $2.58M 38.5% Avg. Spend $67.21 $75.11 ($7.90) -11% Avg. # messaged 564, , ,304 73% Mobile continues to drive strong sales and margin Increased message cadence for Q2; 4 additional texts drove $4.3M in sales Average spend per transaction declined by $7.90; TY 3 offers were single item discount which impacted ADS List growth was over +73%. LY new regulations required for opt-in reduced list size, rebuilt with new members. 6

7 December 12 Days of Savings 12 Days Ecom Recap TY LY B/W Total Demand Revenue $ 1,181,926 $ 782,681 51% Unique Visits 1,310, , % Revenue by Channel $ 1,181,926 % TTL $ 231,978 18% cpc $ 279,187 22% retargeting $ 2,061 0% affiliate $ 248,226 19% organic/direct/referral $ 420,474 41% Channel Overview Day 3 had the highest open rate on Sun, 12/14 with the following subject line: Open your third gift. Thanks us later. Day 2 had the highest CTO rate on Sat, 12/13 with the following copy: because you ve been good all year, you totally deserve this Day 7 generated the most revenue on Thu, 12/18 with the following promotion: 20% off entire reg price purchase Paid Search Day s 9 & 10 of Savings had lowest Avg CPC s $0.24 Day 2 of Savings, 30% off Sitewide, had highest Impressions 57,351 Day 3 of Savings, 25% off Jewelry, generated highest ROAS $9.38 Affiliate o From 12/18 to 12/23 there was drop in C/R, and revenue as expected due to holiday shipping cutoff ( C/R fell %, and revenue fell %) Top Publishers o RetailMeNot was #1 every day. o Ebates was #2 for most of the 12 days of savings. 7

8 December 12 Days of Savings Summary (Brick and Mortar) Coming into the week, Traffic trends were: Week Prior Traffic was down -2.7%, Transactions were up 5.1% and Conversion was up 8.0% to LY MTD Traffic was down -5.5%, Transactions were flat and Conversion was up 6.6% to LY STD Traffic was down -6.1%, Transactions were down -2.1% and Conversion was up 4.3% to LY Combined for the 12 Days: Traffic was down -1.9% to LY, improving over recent trends Transactions were up 5.0% vs. LY, improvement over longer term trends. Conversion was up 7.0%, in line with trend The biggest Sales days were the days which offered overall sales discounts: Day 2 (30% Off A Single Reg Price Item) The offer generated $335.1K in store sales (penetrating at 6.5%) This offer was also assisted by a mobile text blast with a similar offer that brought in sales of $450K, penetrating at 8.7% Day 7 (20% Off Entire Reg Price Purchase) The offer generated $218.1K in store sales (penetrating at 7.4%) This was the second highest day from Sales $ perspective, and higher penetration than 30% ASRPI offer Day 12 (30% Off A Single Reg Price Item) The offer generated $164.9K in sales (penetrating at 4.5%) The offer was lower in sales and penetration than similar offers ran on Day 2, and Day 7 A text blast also accompanied this offer which brought $228.8K in sales at 6.3% penetration. This additional offer might have also prompted an increase in traffic and conversion at stores

9 December 12 Days of Savings What Worked Day 9 (30% Off All Sweaters) $102.0K in Sales (penetrating at 2.1%). Traffic was -3.8% and Conversion was +5.9% to LY, above trend Saturday penetration of Sweaters was trending at 18.7% to store sales for last 6 weeks. While the offer did not impact it, Sweater Sales exceeded LY by +10.8%. This was significantly better than STD trend of -3.3% and 6 week trend of +6.4% to LY Day 5 (30% Off Reg Price dbsunday) $15.6K in Sales (penetrating at 0.7%). Traffic was +0.9%, and Conversion was +13.4% to LY, Tuesday penetration of dbsunday was trending at 1.0% to store sales for last 6 weeks. While the offer did not change this trend, the increased traffic and the fact that we comped almost 9.0% over LY, suggests that we were able to bring in more customers that day Day 6 (25% Off Reg Price Scarves) $25.0K in Sales (penetrating at 0.9%). Traffic was -11.2%, but conversion was up +8.1% to LY Wednesday penetration of Scarves to Store Sales was trending at 1.6% for last 6 weeks, this Wed it jumped to 2.6%. Additionally, Scarves sales were above LY by +0.2%, significantly better than STD trend of -4.0% as well as 6 week trend of -13.5% to LY Day 3 (25% Off Reg Price Jewelry) $37.3K in Sales (penetrating at 1.6%). Traffic was +2.3% and Conversion was +7.5% to LY Sunday penetration of Jewelry was trending at 3.6% for last 6 weeks, this Sun Jewelry penetrated at 4.7%. Additionally, Jewelry sales were above LY by +8.3%, notably better than STD trend of +1.4% as well as the 6 week trend of +6.1% to LY What Didn t Day 11 (25% Off Reg Price Social Acc) $6.3K in Sales(penetrating at 0.2%). Traffic was -12.9% and Conversion was -1.1% to LY (only day of promotion where Conversion dipped below LY) Social Accessories Sales were below LY by 31.1%, far lower than STD trend of -7.8% as well as 6 week trend of -19.5% to LY Day 10 (25% Off Reg Price Social Dress) $14.8K in Sales (penetrating at 0.6%). Traffic and Conversion were essentially flat to LY Sunday penetration of Social was trending at 6.9% for last 6 weeks, on the day it dropped to 5.5%. Additionally, Social sales were below LY by %. This was significantly worse than STD trend of -1.0% and the 6 week trend of -2.2% to LY Day 4 (25% Off Reg Price Cold Weather) $16.3K in Sales (penetrating at 0.7%). Traffic was -10.2% to LY, dropping significantly Monday penetration of Cold Weather was trending at 0.5% for last 6 weeks, this Mon it dropped to 0.4%. Additionally, while sales were above LY by +8.2% it was significantly below the 6 week trend of +13.0% to LY Day 8 (Take Additional $5 Off PJs) $12.2K in Sales (penetrating at 0.4%). Traffic was -8.1% to LY while conversion was +4.2% to LY Friday penetration of PJs was trending at 0.8% and this day it was 1.1%. However, total PJ sales were down -17.4% to LY, while the trend has been to be up between 5 to 10% to LY 9

10 Moving Forward: Optimizing Current Customer Performance Four customer spend tiers have been defined and will be used for segmented offers to drive engagement: Top (338k; 5.8%) drive 32% of the sales and margin; monitor for continued performance High Potential (435k; 7.5%); nurture to migrate to top tier Core (1.7M) spends in alignment with their penetration, spend is $10 less, but significantly less transactions. Opportunity to drive visits. Growth tier is 57.5% of the base; 3.3M with average sale of only $30 and 1.4 transactions/year. Test additional depth on DM and adding to drive average sales & incremental visits. SALES AND MARGIN BY TIER Custs % of file Net Retail % Retail ADC ADS Margin Margin %$ Margin % $1, , % $ 96,667, % $ 1, $ $ 55,610, % 57.5% TOP $500 - $1, , % $ 183,094, % $ $ $ 106,249, % 58.0% $ , % $ 279,761, % $ $ $ 161,859, % 57.9% HP $300 - $ , % $ 166,237, % $ $ $ 96,874, % 58.3% CORE $100 - $200 1,690, % $ 291,230, % $ $ $ 170,038, % 58.4% GROWTH <$100 3,337, % $ 144,982, % $ $ $ 79,884, % 55.1% TOTAL 5,800, % $ 882,212, % $ $ $ 508,657, % 57.7% Custs % of file SMART Girls % SG $1, , % 41, % $500 - $1, , % 147, % $ , % 188, % $300 - $ , % 198, % $100 - $200 1,690, % 627, % <$100 3,337, % 1,111, % 5,800, % 2,125, % SMART Girl penetration in the file decreases with the value segment. 10

11 Q3 & Q4 Direct Mail Segmentation Strategy Mailer Goal Total Circ Top High Pot. Core Growth/ React. 2/12 3/8 Spring Preview 2.5M 2 20% any single reg. priced item 1 30% off any single clearance item New/Add tl Segs 3/4-4/5 Intro DRESSbar; Run up to Easter 3.0M 20%/25% entire reg. savings pass Circ: 265k $15/$75, $25/$100 Circ: 322k 20%/25% entire reg. single use Circ: 1.07M 30% any single reg item Circ: 1.07M 30% any single reg item Circ: 135k Control segment rec d 20%/25% Circ: 145k 3/25 4/21 DRESSbar; Easter 3.1M 20%/25% entire reg. savings pass Circ: 265k 20%/25% entire reg. savings pass Circ: 322k 20%/25% entire reg. single use Circ: 1.07M 20%/25% entire reg. single use Circ: 1.1M 30% any single reg item Circ: 185k 4/22 5/20 Mother s Day 5/20 6/16 Memorial Day 3.1M; 2.4M Books 475k mailers 225k ADS mailers 2.5M Control segment rec d 20%/25% Circ: 145k 15% - 50% Scratch Off; ADS tests: 20%/25% vs. $15/$75 $25/$100 20%/25% with dbcc 6/10 7/7 Summer 2.2M Offers TBD based on results of the 3/4 and 3/25 mailer offers 7/8 7/26 July 2.2M Offers TBD based on results of the 3/4 and 3/25 mailer offers

12 Research Calendar Spring 2015 Holiday Shopping & Credit Survey survey complete, report due 3/1 Trade Area Analysis phase I complete; phase II estimate 3/15 DRESSbar Exit Intercepts/Shop Alongs evaluate customers perception of the drop ins (4/15) Smart Girl Survey & Segment Validation replicate original brand work survey and update algorithm (4/15) Merchandise Survey Shoe deep dive with advisory panel, fielding 3/15 THIRD QUARTER FISCAL 15 Week Ending 1/31 2/7 2/14 2/21 2/28 3/7 3/14 3/21 3/28 4/4 4/11 4/18 4/25 Fiscal Week Customer Pulse Survey Active Data Processing Report Survey Active Data Brand Tracker Survey Active Data Processing Report Exit Intercepts Survey Active Lapsed Buyer Register Survey Report Report Report Net Promoter Report Report Report Smart Girl Segment Scoring Survey Refresh DCAG Shoes Panel Recruitment FOURTH QUARTER FISCAL 15 Week Ending 5/2 5/9 5/16 5/23 5/30 6/6 6/13 6/20 6/27 7/4 7/11 7/18 7/25 Fiscal Week Customer Pulse Processing Report Survey Active Data Processing Report Brand Tracker Exit Intercepts Processing Report Lapsed Buyer Survey Active Data Processing Report Register Survey Report Report Report Net Promoter Report Report Report Smart Girl Survey Processing Report Segment Scoring DCAG Panel Recruitment 12

13 Insights Dashboards: NPS* January 2015 Store NPS has remained at a consistently high LTR Average for F15 is 76.1% Average for F14 was 74% Response rates are slightly lower than LY F14; 109k responders; 9,000/month F15; 46k responders; 7,600/month Web NPS has declined compared to LY Average for F15 is 56.9% January rebounded to 72.1% Average for F14 was 67.8% Web responses for October to December were missing. Change to fulfillment center was miscoded in Sales Audit and resulted in low surveys for Web. Corrected in January. Base is still small 2,500 for F14; 200/month 160/ month F15 *NPS is based on likelihood to recommend. Sent to customers with purchase in the last 30 days. NPS = Promoters (9-10) - Detractors (0-6) / Total (0-10) 13

14 Multi Channel: Fall 2015 SALES RANGE BY CHANNEL Fall Fiscal '15 VS. Fall Fiscal '14 VS.Fall Fiscal '13 TOTAL CUSTOMERS TOTAL SALES ADC ADS TOTAL VISITS AVG VIST/CUST Fall Fiscal '15 3,432,179 $412,231,419 $ $ ,507, Fall Fiscal '14 3,477,306 $407,141,055 $ $ ,555, Fall Fiscal '13 3,528,776 $398,222,017 $ $ ,586, NON-ECOMMERCE CUSTOMERS Fall Fiscal '15 3,254,525 $373,872,239 $ $ ,918, Fall Fiscal '14 3,310,184 $370,503,187 $ $ ,986, Fall Fiscal '13 3,397,325 $369,340,055 $ $ ,139, Fall '15 %-Total 94.8% 90.7% -4.4% -0.3% 90.9% -4.1% Fall '14 %-Total 95.2% 91.0% -4.4% -0.3% 91.3% -4.1% Fall '13 %-Total 96.3% 92.7% -3.7% -0.5% 93.2% -3.2% ECOMMERCE ONLY CUSTOMERS Fall Fiscal '15 61,372 $5,855,977 $95.42 $ , Fall Fiscal '14 55,707 $5,032,131 $90.33 $ , Fall Fiscal '13 42,763 $3,782,707 $88.46 $ , Fall '15 %-Total 1.8% 1.4% -20.6% 9.5% 1.3% -27.5% Fall '14 %-Total 1.6% 1.2% -22.8% 11.0% 1.1% -30.5% Fall '13 %-Total 1.2% 0.9% -21.6% 8.7% 0.9% -27.9% MULTICHANNEL CUSTOMERS Fall Fiscal '15 116,282 $32,503,204 $ $ , Fall Fiscal '14 111,415 $31,605,738 $ $ , Fall Fiscal '13 88,688 $25,099,255 $ $ , Fall '15 %-Total 3.4% 7.9% 132.7% 1.6% 7.8% 129.1% Fall '14 %-Total 3.2% 7.8% 142.3% 2.5% 7.6% 136.3% Fall '13 %-Total 2.5% 6.3% 150.8% 6.4% 5.9% 135.7% SHADED = Variance to Grand Multi channel customers are 3.4% YTD; up from 3.2% LY Multichannel customers are 7.9% of the posted sales Average spend/customer is down $4 and average visits are down slightly (.08) Spend ($280) is over twice the average customer spend of $120 Ecommerce only customers are 1.8% of the total; up from 1.6% Average individual sale is higher ($69 vs. $63) but they transact less frequently (1.08 vs. 1.9) for the total Store Only customers are 95% of the customer base, but 91% of the sales. 14

15 Loyalty & Credit Program Metrics: Fall 2015 SALES RANGE BY PROGRAM 7/27/2014-1/24/2015 TOTAL CUSTOMERS TOTAL SALES ADC ADS AVG TOTAL VISITS VIST/CUST Fall FISCAL 15 3,432,179 $412,231,419 $ $ ,507, BlushPerks and DBCC CUSTOMERS Fall FISCAL ,763 $164,402,518 $ $ ,337, Fall F15 % TOTAL 26.1% 39.9% 35.9% BlushPerks ONLY CUSTOMERS Fall FISCAL 15 2,141,143 $213,508,496 $99.72 $ ,581, Fall F15 % TOTAL 62.4% 51.8% 55.0% DBCC ONLY CUSTOMERS Fall FISCAL 15 85,586 $12,870,951 $ $ , Fall F15 % TOTAL 2.5% 3.1% 2.7% Neither CUSTOMERS Fall FISCAL ,687 $21,449,454 $69.49 $ , Fall F15 % TOTAL 9.0% 5.2% 6.3% DBCC CUSTOMERS Fall FISCAL , ,273,469 $ $ ,516, Fall F15 % TOTAL 28.6% 43.0% 38.7% BlushPerks CUSTOMERS Fall FISCAL 15 3,037, ,911,015 $ $ ,918, Fall F15 % TOTAL 88.5% 91.7% 91.0% Report Month Jan 2015 Metrics This Year Last Year Variance % This Year Last Year Variance % Applications 10,918 14, % 113, , % Applications from Stores 9,090 13, % 97, , % Applications per Store per Week % % Net Applications 10,162 13, % 107, , % Total Brand Transactions 783, , % 6,930,576 6,808, % Net Approval % 84.7% 83.5% 1.5% 84.6% 84.2% 0.5% New Accounts 8,612 11, % 90, , % Activation % 90.0% 91.8% -1.9% 94.3% 95.0% -0.8% Activated New Accounts 7,754 10, % 85, , % * 12-Month Buyers 1,067,569 1,128, % *12-Month Buyer Retention 62.7% 59.0% 6.3% MTD Total Brand Sales $50,069,072 $48,159, % $484,153,016 $476,233, % Credit Sales (excluding tax and shipping) $14,040,395 $14,370, % $147,249,064 $151,150, % Tender Share (excluding tax and shipping) 28.0% 29.8% -6.0% 30.4% 31.7% -4.2% Grey sections are shown for metrics that are not available for a given time period (ie - YTD). YTD Credit cardholders are 29% of the file, but contribute 43% of the sales (not all sales on dbcc tender) Loyalty members are 89% of the active customer base. 82% of total transactions have a loyalty id attached Customers in both programs are 26% of the file and generate almost 40% of sales, with 36% of the visits. Highest ADC and visits. Cardholder base is declining. Activated new accounts are down 35k to LY. Retention rate has improved to almost 63% vs. 59% LY Credit sales are down $330k (-2.3%) while brand sales have increased, resulting in a -6.0% credit tender penetration 15