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1 3 March 2015 BIPV workshop Göteborg Wiep Folkerts Director of SEAC Solar Energy Application Centre The Netherlands Content of this presentation 1.Introduction to SEAC 3. Success factors for BIPV 4. BIPV case studies 5. BIPV as an opportunity for European business SEAC 1

2 1. Introduction to SEAC SEAC is an alliance of Dutch research institutes focused on innovation and economic growth in the field of: Solar Energy Systems and Applications SEAC core team of 7 people in Eindhoven 50 researchers in 6 institutes 45 companies Ministry of Economic Affairs 1. Introduction to SEAC Scope of SEAC: 1. Electronics and storage for PV in the built environment TODAY 2. Building integrated PV (BIPV) 3. Integration of PV in Infrastructure 4. Solar Thermal and (C)PVT 5. PV in the energy system 6. Solar and Mobility SEAC 2

3 1. Introduction to SEAC The SEAC research facility for BIPV (Solar BEAT): 6 dummy houses Weather station Data management system Many sensors Combined with infrastructure for ST, CPV and PVT research 1. Introduction to SEAC The new BIPV report 2015 of SUPSI and SEAC will be launched on 13 March. 1. Classification of BIPV systems 2. BIPV price study 3. BIPV product database 4. BIPV project highlights Check out: SEAC 3

4 Content of this presentation 1. Introduction to SEAC 3. Success factors for BIPV 4. BIPV case studies 5. BIPV as an opportunity for European business SEAC 4

5 A BIPV financial assessment has to be done in the context of: Which type of house (terraced/detached, size,.) New built or renovation Owned or rented Electricity consumption Regulations, financial incentives Household perspectieve / investor s perspective and Uncertainty about the future Question: How is the BIPV business case from a rational prosumer perspective? STEP 1: define a reference house Example terraced detached New built, electricity neutral Roof size: 62 m 2 (S) + 62 m 2 (N) Orientation: south, tilt 35 degrees Electricity consumption: 4600 kwh/yr PV installed: 5100 Wp SEAC 5

6 Question: How is the BIPV business case from a rational prosumer perspective? STEP 2: get quotes Turn-key prices for roofing on a newly built detached house Turn-key price of a 124m² newly built roof (including VAT) Concrete tiles Ceramic tiles Slates 6,535 8,478 11,834 Price/m² STEP 2: get quotes for complete roof SEAC 6

7 STEP 2: prices per m 2 STEP 3: scenarios for the value of the electricity Unlimited net metering Limited net metering Feed-in tariff Other financial incentives This means effectively a value of 0.23 / kwh (The Netherlands) SEAC 7

8 STEP 4: techno-financial model Parameters: Investment = delta-investment Economic lifetime (25 years) Inverter replacement (10-15 yrs) O&M cost (0 0.5%) Discount rate (0% - 5%) Electricity consumption (4600 kwh/yr) Self consumption (10%-50%) Electricity price (0.23 /kwh) Electricity price change (+2.8%/yr) Feed-in tariff.. + Monte Carlo! STEP 5: results of NPV calculation BAPV BIPV in-roof BIPV tiles NPV after 25 yrs under unlimited net metering 97.5% certainty interval (Monte Carlo) Result most sensitive on: Discounted payback time , , ,- 10k - 26k 7k 24k -7k 15k Discount rate Economic lifetime Discount rate Economic lifetime 7 yrs 9 yrs 24 yrs Discount rate Economic lifetime BIPV tiles investment SEAC 8

9 CONCLUSION: BIPV is too expensive for a rational decision maker Make BIPV more cost effective Smart engineering Effective multifunctionality Sell BIPV in an irrational way Status, Fashion, Feelgood,.. Content of this presentation 1. Introduction to SEAC 3. Success factors for BIPV 4. BIPV case studies 5. BIPV as an opportunity for European business SEAC 9

10 The BIPV challenge (2) MARKET Building market requires variety in form, size, color, look-andfeel,.. High Mix PV PRODUCT PV cost roadmaps are based on mass production and standardization. Low Mix Lifetime 50 yrs Lifetime 25 yrs The BIPV challenge MARKET Building market requires variety in form, size, color, look-andfeel,.. PV PRODUCT PV cost roadmaps are based on mass production and standardization. High Mix Low Mix 1. Consider standard PV laminate as a low cost semi-fabricate. 2. Smart engineering and smart manufacturing process for BIPV. High mix comes as a final step in the manufacturing. 3. More attention to smart installation: less man-hours on the working place. 4. Real multi-functionality : replaced materials come into the equation as a delta-cost. 5. Consider the lifetime discrepancy. SEAC 10

11 3. Success factors for BIPV Market: 1. Stable and predictable roadmap of building directives. 2. Harmonized standards and building codes in Europe. 3. Stable and predictable roadmap of PV-related financial regulations. 4. Start selling PV & BIPV as a feel-good & status product. 3. Success factors for BIPV Product and Supply Chain: 1. Alignment of the supply chain ( PV-world and constructionworld : a joined vision). 2. Smart engineering designs and smart manufacturing process for BIPV. Cost-effective high mix offering. Vision on Total-Cost-of- Ownership (smart installation, repair-and-replace philosophy) 3. Real multi-functionality. SEAC 11

12 Content of this presentation 1. Introduction to SEAC 3. Success factors for BIPV 4. BIPV case studies 5. BIPV as an opportunity for European business Case Study 1: A concept for: New built houses Cost effective product Full roof filling Aesthetics important Cost effective solution for installation & water tightness SEAC 12

13 Case Study 1: the looks Case Study 1: the performance model Conclusion: Top ridge needs to be open in order to limit the module temperature. SEAC 13

14 Case Study 1: the marketing Case Study 2: A cost effective concept for the renovation of pitched roofs of (mostly terraced) houses SEAC 14

15 The market: 000 The market: 000 SEAC 15

16 The concept: Requirements: 1. From label F to B: 2. Cost effective Fully executable from outside the house 4. Applicable to all pitched roofs 5. Full roof-filling, high aesthetics The concept: Insulation + Protection + Electricity Rapid installation 000 Less materials SEAC 16

17 The concept: 000 Choice of PV panels: 1. Need a low Euro/m^2 cost (rather than Euro/Wp) 2. Needs to be available in a standard building width (1.20 m) 3. Needs to be (relative) intolerant to partial shadowing 000 SEAC 17

18 Choice of PV panels: thin film panel: 8% loss 000 crystalline panel: 33% loss Prefab & on-site assembly: 000 Thin film PV panels Ventilation gap Roof insulation Micro-inverters Dummy pieces to fit irregularities SEAC 18

19 Performance and modelling Measure: All temperatures Air flow in ventilation gap Irradiation Clearness index Electricity yield 000 Performance and Modelling 000 Performance model (electricity yield) Thermal model (TRNSYS) Optimize ventilation gap SEAC 19

20 Implementation: 000 Content of this presentation 1. Introduction to SEAC 3. Success factors for BIPV 4. BIPV case studies 5. BIPV as an opportunity for European business SEAC 20

21 5. BIPV as an opportunity for Europe: the thin film PV case 1. Thin film PV can beat c-si on /m 2 PV as a building material. If the area is enough to cover the own consumption,., then /m 2 is a better figureof-merit than /kwh 5. BIPV as an opportunity for Europe: the thin film PV case 2. Thin film PV has the potential of conformable applications Conformable Flexible and Lightweight SEAC 21

22 5. BIPV as an opportunity for Europe: the thin film PV case 3. Thin film has the potential of every format, without extra cost 5. BIPV as an opportunity for Europe: conclusion Europe: 1. Front runner in policy on sustainability (building codes, incentives) 2. Good in high mix product offerings 3. Strong value in aspects of culture, sustainability, aesthetics, status 4. Strong skills for smart engineering and innovative technology. THANK YOU! SEAC 22