BVRLA Residual Value and Remarketing Forum

Transcription

1 BVRLA Residual Value and Remarketing Forum 6 November 21 st June Promoting responsible transport

2 Welcome and Agenda Jim McNally; Asset Risk Manager at Alphabet (GB) Ltd and RVR Committee Chairman Promoting responsible transport

3 Agenda 09:30 Welcome and Agenda Jim McNally; Asset Risk Manager at Alphabet (GB) Ltd and RVR Committee Chairman 09:35 Market Overview Craig Smith; Commercial Director Autofutura 10:05 Options and Colours Rupert Pontin; Director of Valuations Glass s 10:35 Coffee Break 11:05 Insights into Consumer Car Buying Behaviour Chris Bussey; Business and Commercial Lead - Autotrader 11:35 The digital world of remarketing Jamie Scott; Remarketing Director Paragon Automotive 12:05 Diesel NOx and RV s what impact? Facilitator: Nora Leggett Speakers: Craig Smith, Rupert Pontin, Chris Bussey and Jamie Scott 12:50 Chairman s Closing Comments Jim McNally; Asset Risk Manager at Alphabet (GB) Ltd and RVR Committee Chairman Close of Forum and Lunch Promoting responsible transport

4 Market Overview Craig Smith; Commercial Director Autofutura Promoting responsible transport

5 BVRLA RVR Forum June 2016 Market Overview Craig Smith Commercial Director

6 Used Vehicle Supply Seasonality Long Term RV Trends - Overall - Segment - Fuel Key messages

7 New Vehicle Registrations Become Tomorrows Used Vehicles

8 Car - Vehicle Supply New reg year old year old year old year old Variance to year 0.0% 8.1% 15.3% 20.0% 21.8% Variance to year 0.0% 6.3% 6.3% 6.3% 6.3% Variance to year 0.0% 11.0% 18.1% 18.1% 18.1% Variance to year 0.0% 10.9% 23.2% 31.0% 31.0% Variance to year 0.0% 4.1% 15.5% 28.3% 36.4%

9 Car - Vehicle Supply 1-4 year old Parc 13 Years 26% Down 16 Years

10 Car - Vehicle Supply New Registrations Pushing the ceiling?

11 LCV - Vehicle Supply 1-4 year old Parc 9 Years 28% Down

12 LCV - Vehicle Supply New Registrations?

13 Seasonality

14 Seasonality

15 RV Trends

16 Car RV Trends

17 RV Trend

18 Changing Segments and Mix

19 UK Segments

20 Segments

21 Segments

22 Segments

23 Segments

24 Segments

25 Segments

26 The Rise of the Crossover!!

27 Segments

28 Segments

29 Segments

30 Segments

31 Fuel

32 Petrol Fuel

33 Diesel Fuel

34 Petrol Fuel

35 Key Messages Seasonality is consistent. Used vehicle supply will continue to increase, creating downward pressure on RV s. Segmentation gets more blurred as crossover volumes rise. Diesel still performing well relatively.

36 Thank You

37 Colour and Options Rupert Pontin; Director of Valuations Glass s Promoting responsible transport

38 Options and Colours Rupert Pontin Director of Valuations June 21 st /06/2016

39 Summary of Ebbon Dacs 39 22/06/2016 Reproduction and commercial distribution is strictly prohibited

40 The Option Discussion Option Packs Standard Fit Individual Option Business Benefit Business Spec Health and Safety 40 22/06/2016 Reproduction and commercial distribution is strictly prohibited

41 Vendor Options Methodology - Traditional Auction Sale Results Remarketing Platform Results Assistance from Colleagues Low Level Analysis Reference to Cost New Reference to RV Setting Process Vendor Discussion Team Ratification 41 22/06/2016 Reproduction and commercial distribution is strictly prohibited

42 Options Methodology Traditional Panoramic Roof Leather Climate Upholstery Control Upgrade DAB Sat Nav - Base Sat Nav Advanced Alloy Wheel Size Upgrade Heated Seats Park Assist 3rd Row Seats Premium Sound System Advanced Full LED Connectivity Headlights Rear Seat Entertainment Privacy Glass Metallic Paint Keyless Go Editorial Team Driven Analysis 42 22/06/2016 Reproduction and commercial distribution is strictly prohibited

43 Options Methodology the future?? VIN SAE Retail Platforms 43 22/06/2016 Reproduction and commercial distribution is strictly prohibited

44 Colour Analysis Trade Data What is the Top Selling Colour by Volume in the Used Trade Market? 44 22/06/2016 Reproduction and commercial distribution is strictly prohibited

45 Colour Analysis May 2015 to May Trade Data +8.7% Top 5 Colours by Whole Market -1.2% +2.7% +10.4% +32.1% BLACK SILVER BLUE GREY WHITE 45 22/06/2016 Reproduction and commercial distribution is strictly prohibited Glass s Composite Data

46 Colour Analysis May 2015 to May Trade Data 10,000 9,000 Average Sale Price of the Top 5 Volume by Colour Whole Market 9,623 9,261 8,000 7,000 6,000 6,371 6,147 6,056 6,204 5,000 4,000 3,881 3,861 3,793 4,058 3,000 BLACK SILVER BLUE GREY WHITE 46 22/06/2016 Reproduction and commercial distribution is strictly prohibited Glass s Composite Data

47 Colour Analysis May Trade Data Top 5 Colours - % Share of the Market May 2016 Whole Market 11.21% 23.45% 13.02% 9.95% Glass s Composite Data 21.72% 47 22/06/2016 Reproduction and commercial distribution is strictly prohibited

48 Colour Analysis Trade Data % Largest % Increase in Sale Volume Whole Market % % % % % % % % Glass s Composite Data % % % WHITE BROWN ORANGE YELLOW RED 48 22/06/2016 Reproduction and commercial distribution is strictly prohibited

49 Colour Analysis May 2015 to May Trade Data 8000 Top 5 Colours Fleet Sector +11.5% % /06/2016 Reproduction and commercial distribution is strictly prohibited -2.1% +5.7% +13.4% BLACK WHITE SILVER GREY BLUE Glass s Composite Data

50 Colour Analysis May 2015 to May Trade Data 10,000 9,500 Average Sale Price of the Top 5 Volume by Colour Fleet Sector 9,670 9,374 9,399 9,220 9,270 9,625 9,000 8,500 8,442 8,514 8,276 8,045 8,000 7,500 7,000 BLACK WHITE SILVER GREY BLUE 50 22/06/2016 Reproduction and commercial distribution is strictly prohibited Glass s Composite Data

51 Colour Analysis May Trade Data Top 5 Colours - % Share of the Market 2016 Fleet Sector 12.82% 11.21% 27.12% 12.89% 21.45% Glass s Composite Data 51 22/06/2016 Reproduction and commercial distribution is strictly prohibited

52 Colour Analysis Trade Data % % % Largest % Increase in Sale Volume - Fleet Sector % % % % % % % % 80.00% 60.00% 40.00% 20.00% 0.00% ORANGE BEIGE RED WHITE GOLD Glass s Composite Data 52 22/06/2016 Reproduction and commercial distribution is strictly prohibited

53 Summary Option Valuation Methodology can be Complex Traditional Methods Still the Norm Colour Choice Important Market Sector Differences in Colour Popularity With Increased Pressure on Margins - the Better the Business Intelligence Must Be to Maximise Returns 53 22/06/2016 Reproduction and commercial distribution is strictly prohibited

54 Insights into Consumer Car Buying Behaviour Chris Bussey; Business and Commercial Lead - Autotrader Promoting responsible transport

55 Insights into Consumer Car Buying Behaviour

56 BVRLA members create a product - Used Cars

57 Consumer Purchase Journey

58 Only buyers no longer new or used buyers

59 willing to consider a wider selection of brands Data Source: Auto Trader/Kantar Media Survey 2014 The Undecided Car Buyer

60 and less loyal to a single brand

61 On-line now the default for consumer research

62 and where most time spent on buying journey

63 Auto Trader considered most influential website

64 Smartphones / tablets are most used devices

65 however, cross-device usage is the norm

66 but each device used differently

67 Age of manufacturing Age of distribution Age of information Age of the consumer ? Mass manufacturing makes industrial powerhouses successful Global connections and transportation systems make distribution key Connected PC s and supply chain mean those who control information flow dominate Empowered buyers demand a new level of customer obsession Source: Forrester Research Inc

68 Motor Retailing - the good old days? Lack of information Consumer Dealer No price transparency Local marketplace Search dealers to find cars Low detail print Marketing

69 Motor Retailing - the current reality Massive price transparency Consumer Dealer Search cars to find retailers National marketplace Huge amounts of information available Buyers marketplace

70 Purpose of retailer forecourt transitioning 30m 15m 14m 9m 10m 13m* 10m 10m*

71 Most car buyers head to the dealership with the Intention of buying the car that day 14% I intended to buy that day/test drive the car 15% 71% I wanted information about a specific car as part of my research I just wanted to browse the range of models that the dealership stocked What was the main reason for your first visit to the dealership you bought your car from? Base = 1000 (All); 401 (New); 599 (Used)

72 Value, right car, dealership experience 60% 64% 52% 49% 54% 47% 48% 47% 42% 38% 31% 27% 27% 26% 27% 23% 29% 19% 17% 24% 12% 15% 15% 16% 15% 14% 15% 5% 3% 6% BEST PRICE/VALUE FOR MONEY SPEC/PRODUCT THAT SUITED MY NEEDS FRIENDLY AND COURTEOUS STAFF DEALERSHIP LOCATION BEST DEAL ON PART EXCHANGE PURCHASED PREVIOUS VEHICLE FROM DEALER THEY HAD THE BEST FINANCE DEALS READ REVIEWS OF DEALER RECOMMENDED BY FAMILY/FRIENDS OTHER All New Used Q21. Why did you end up purchasing your vehicle from this dealer? Base = 1972 (All); 593 (New) ; 1379 (Used)

73 Top 10 most searched for cars in BMW 3 Series VW Golf Ford Focus BMW 5 Series Mercedes-Benz C Class

74 which are all key fleet vehicles Ford Fiesta Audi A3 BMW 1 Series Mercedes-Benz E Class Vauxhall Astra

75 Consumer search journey Consumer lands on Home Page, searches for Make and Model and can define price range This gives a Search Listing, consumer can further refine search by Model Variant (Beta), other set criteria and input a Key Word search From these returned search results, consumer can then select specific adverts Full Page Advert Views

76 Consumer search patterns search filter usage for over 50 key fleet makes and models across a range of sectors Make and Model are key considerations along with Price and Mileage as vehicles get older generally more volume appears in the parc and usage of all search parameters increases Mileage and Price selection increases significantly

77 Consumer key word search parameters

78 Key Premium Upper Medium Ranges Up to 24 months months

79 Premium Upper Medium - BMW 3 Series Up to 24 months months

80 Premium Upper Medium key word searches

81 Lower Medium BMW 1 Series Up to 24 months months

82 Lower Medium Vauxhall Astra Up to 24 months months

83 Lower Medium key word searches

84 European SUV Sales by Market Segment

85 Consumer Interest versus Advertised Stock

86 Consumer Interest versus Advertised Stock

87 Consumer Interest versus Advertised Stock

88 Consumer Interest versus Advertised Stock

89 Consumer Interest versus Advertised Stock

90 Consumer Interest versus Advertised Stock

91 Consumer Interest versus Advertised Stock

92 Consumer Interest versus Advertised Stock

93 560m visits across all platforms 2.9bn ad views >87 searches per second at peak site traffic 6.0bn minutes spent on site 4.5m unique cars Source: Google Analytics Jan Dec 2015

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95 The digital world of remarketing Jamie Scott; Business Development Director Remarketing Paragon Automotive Promoting responsible transport

96 Digital Remarketing Jamie Scott, Paragon BVRLA Residual Value & Remarketing Forum

97 The Digital Market Place How the automotive digital world is evolving Systems & Delivery

98 8 million New & Used Car transactions are undertaken annually in the UK

99 2,500,000 Used cars generated by OEM s and fleet annually Buoyant and Competitive Used Car space...!

100 The Market Place: March New Car registrations

101 The Digital Market Place

102 The Retail Consumer Market Is changing, AND FAST...! Since 2000, online sales have accounted for 75% of all retail sales growth 3 sectors remain largely untouched: Fuel Automotive Groceries 50% of the UK s annual Retail Sales

103 Shifting Consumer / Shifting Brand New & used car buyers spend 75% of their research time online. Autotrader Brick s n Clicks these customers take an average of 2.7 months to decide on a purchase Google Analytics

104 Consumer Market The Used Car Buyer is ever evolving with more information available online Footfall is significantly less than just 5-years ago, yet both new & used car sales rise Buyer behaviour is Internet driven, yet transitionally majority undertaken within a dealer environment FACT 78.4% of used car buyers undertake 2hrs+ Online Research on the specific car they buy FACT Consumers undertaking just 1.2 showroom visits per used car sale in Q Retailers and Manufacturers are now starting to focus evermore on Stock Locators & Imagery

105 Google last year (2015) over 100 billion per month Ave. per second: 2.3m (Mar 16) % Google searches from mobile: +50% No. monthly unique visitors to Google: 187m 63% market share

106 Collateral is King We as consumers have moved on; Retailers are shifting their communication strategy Social Media now considered a Powerful Marketing Tool OEMs clearly embrace Social Media building a market Social Media Today 2015 Study Top 100 Automotive Social Media Influencers #1 Ford Motor Company #2 GM Others of note include; Toyota, Hyundai, Nissan, VW all in top Instagram, fastest Growing social media network 39% users16-24yrs old Social Media Ltd

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108 How is the Automotive digital world evolving

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110 Shifting Consumer / Shifting Brand Audi Beijing Audi London Audi Global move to open Digital Showrooms Digital Showroom City Showroom, Green Park London City Showroom Audi s smallest UK operation at 420sq.m Year 1: Sales/wk 50,000 visitors 7 Cars 50% order a car without even a test drive!

111 Future Considerations B2C Model future vision... BMW Dec 2016 buy car with smart phone bridge the gap between physical and online worlds 1 st to market with fully serviced online car buying site Volvo s pioneering decision to make some of its new XC90 models available to buy only online Manufacturers harnessing consumer lead behavioural change

112 Systems & Delivery

113 Key to technology supporting Used Car Remarketing? Consistency of data supports delivery of bespoke service for OEM and fleet and lease with retailer engagement Technology can assist to save time, cost and deliver information to make informed decisions Speed to market Protection of RV Personal interaction is still needed to drive engagement which ultimately supports the overall sales objective

114 Thank you

115 Diesel, NOx and Rv s what impact An open discussion Facilitator: Nora Leggett Speakers: Chris Bussey, Rupert Pontin, Jamie Scott and Craig Smith Promoting responsible transport

116 Diesel company car Volkswagen Emissions Scandal Chancellor U-turn on 3% diesel supplement for company car tax Real driving emissions (RDE) tests Potential growth in low emission zones Promoting responsible transport

117 Real driving emissions test what does it mean? Real Driving Emissions Test Procedures (RDE) are supposed to reduce the divergence between the regulatory limit that is tested in laboratory conditions and the values of the RDE procedure when the car is driven by a real driver on a real road for NOx Agreement had been reached on a gradual approach to reducing this divergence (the conformity factor) car manufacturers will have to bring down the discrepancy to a conformity factor of maximum 2.1 (110%) for new models by September 2017 this discrepancy will be brought down to a factor of 1.5 (50%) by January 2020 New test procedures World-Wide Harmonized Test Procedure for Light-Duty Vehicles are in development to closer reflect real world driving Promoting responsible transport

118 Outlook for Euro 6 diesel passenger cars Initial assessment good improvement over Euro 5 Worst performance in congested driving conditions Independent Analysis: e.g. Emissions Analytics Deterioration of technology unknown SCR dosage strategies and maintenance a concern Q1 BVRLA Research: new diesel deliveries declined by 4.5% What is the used-vehicle prospective customer looking for? Promoting responsible transport

119 Consumer Purchase Considerations Reduced carbon footprint? Overall 9% London 19% South-East 3% Wales 3% East Anglia 0%

120 Consumer Purchase Considerations Based on an analysis of the 37 most searched for models on AT, where consumer usage of search parameters is significantly greater

121 Consumer interest in VW Group diesels Emissions story breaks

122 Consumer interest in VW brand

123 Chairman s Closing Comments Jim McNally; Asset Risk Manager Alphabet GB and RVR Committee Chairman Promoting responsible transport

124 Committee and Projects Update Committee Discussions: - Current market conditions - Connected cars data principles - VED Changes April 2017 Next RVR committee: 14 th July 2016 Next RVR forum: 17 th November 2016 BVRLA Fleet Technology Congress: 6 th July 2016 Promoting responsible transport

125 Committee and Projects Update Forum Feedback Last forum (9 th February) hosted by feedback: - 49 attendees - 14 completed feedback survey Presentations of most value : Ebbon-Dacs and cap hpi presentations The Diesel Company Car any future? Promoting responsible transport

126 100% Reasons for attending 90% 93% 80% 70% 86% 79% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 21% 21% 10% 14% 0% Listen to speaker presentations Gather inspiration Take away ideas Aid personal development Network with peers Assist with company strategy Promoting responsible transport

127 Final thoughts Thank you to Jaguar Land Rover for hosting this event RVR Feedback & Suggestions: Fran will send the link to the survey tomorrow, so please spend a few minutes to complete Presentations: Fran will the link to download these from the BVRLA website tomorrow Promoting responsible transport

128 Close of Forum and Lunch Promoting responsible transport