Main Street Bootcamp Performing a Comprehensive Analysis of your Market and Identifying Early Action Items for your Community

Transcription

1 Main Street Bootcamp 2017 Performing a Comprehensive Analysis of your Market and Identifying Early Action Items for your Community

2 About Larisa Ortiz Associates Larisa Ortiz Associates (LOA) is an industry-leading advisory firm for those seeking to revitalize diverse, urban downtowns and neighborhood corridors. Proven Expertise: Since 2008, over 100 communities worldwide Resource Provider: and free quarterly newsletter are widely read by industry practitioners Industry Leadership: Larisa serves on the Board of the International Downtown Association and as Eastern Division Co-Chair for the International Council of Shopping Center s P3 Retail Program.

3 Today What is Market Analysis? How is it different than Market Data? A District Diagnostic Tool Complete your own District Evaluation

4 Before we begin.

5 What does the customer want? What drives customers to visit a district, and spend money there, again and again and again? District Experience Tenant Mix: Price point, offerings Location: Access, Convenience Source: Verde Group/ ICSC Global Research Network,

6 What makes for success? When success is measured by Shopper preference Higher real estate values Retail sales growth We see districts of every shape, size and type share the following basic characteristics Retail density Tenant mix Access Physical environment

7 What is Market Analysis? The process of identifying factors, conditions, and characteristics of a market. This means it is much more than simply collecting market data

8 Why is Market Analysis important? Identification of unique local assets and market opportunities allows for informed investment Engagement and coalition building supports long term investment decisions Data driven narrative assures widespread support for the right goals

9 CONDUCTING A DISTRICT DIAGNOSIS

10 Diagnosis Understanding the Market

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13 Building a Vision STRATEGIC POSITIONING

14 Corning Museum of Glass DNA of Place Who are we now? What do we want to be? What resources and assets attract people? What idrives our authenticity? Glassfest, Corning, NY

15 Clemens Center Elmira, NY Local Assets Elmira College 1,100 students Clemens Center 80,000 annual Elmira College Elmira, NY

16 Catskill, NY Cat skill. Get it?

17 Catskill, NY Waterfront Weekend River Cruises

18 Current Visitors (per year) Major Visitation Drivers Thomas Cole House Visitors 25,000 Hudson River Cruise Passengers 2,281 Total Yearly Visitation (two anchors) 27,281 Potential Additional Visitors Boaters (Mid-Hudson Region) (per year) 21,862 Source: Thomas Cole House Education; American Cruise Lines; Northeast Recreational Boater Survey Two anchors contribute an additional 27,281 yearly visitors

19 MARKET ANALYSIS NOT TO BE CONFUSED WITH MARKET DATA

20 Residential demand Employee demand Visitor demand Public realm Private realm Access/visibility factors, conditions and characteristics of the market Market Data & Demographics Adminstrative Capacity Physical Environment Business Environment Leadership Funding Partners Zoning & Regulatory Retail nodes Business mix

21 Market Data TWO WORDS: TRADE AREA Your analysis is only as accurate as your trade area

22 Trade Area U.S. Shopping Center Classifications Center Type Average SF Typical # of Tenants Trade Area Size Travel Time Size, location and natural barriers impact the relative distance a customer would be willing to travel Regional Shopping Area 400k 800k miles 30 min Regional Community Center 125k 400k miles 20 min Community Neighborhood Center 30k 125k miles 10 min Neighborhood Strip/ Convenience < 30k NA < 1 mile ~ 5 min Convenience Source: International Council of Shopping Centers

23 Market Data Commercial District Classification Typical Offering # Anchors Amount of retail SF Anchors No. of Businesses Downtown Oneonta 2+ Approx. 300,000 sf Foothills Theater, eating establishments, civic buildings, banks Trade Area Guidelines 305 businesses 6 12 miles ICSC Shopping Center Classification General Purpose Centers # Anchors Amount of retail SF Typical Anchor Typical No. of Tenants Trade Area Guidelines Small Neighborhood Center 1+ 30, ,000 sf Grocery store (conventional or specialty), local dining, convenience 5 20 stores 3 miles Large Neighborhood Center , ,000 sf Discount store, supermarket, specialty grocery store, drugstore, eating establishments etc. Regional Comparison District , ,000 sf Department store or Junior Department Store, fashion apparel store, some big box retail stores 3 6 miles stores 5-15 miles Source: ICSC, U.S. Shopping-Center Classification and Characteristics

24 Defining Trade Area Oneonta, NY Oneonta, NY 300k concentrated retail Diverse, eclectic mix of offerings Patrons willing to travel Cooperstown Milford Secondary Trade Area: 15 miles Morris 3 miles 7 mins Davenport 15 mins 5 miles 15 miles Delhi

25 Defining Trade Area Elmira, NY 316k retail BUT dispersed Limited retail offerings Elmira, NY Secondary Trade Area: 6 miles Downtown Study Area

26 Back to Oneonta Residential Demographics Oneonta s population is 3 miles 5 miles 15 miles NY State 2016 Total Population 18,102 21,821 50,744 19,934,506 Denser Population Density (pop. per square mile) Stable Population Growth ( ) -0.15% -0.11% -0.07% 0.51% Less familyoriented Younger Households 6,005 7,641 19,157 7,508,958 Family Households 47% 51% 59% 62.80% Median Age Source: ESRI Business Analyst, 2016 These numbers reflect the presence of a college population. The lower presence of families may be attributed to lack of quality affordable housing options, and family-friendly amenities, such as good schools.

27 Residential Psychographics 15 miles 5 miles 3 miles 10% 4% 4% 4% 9% 5% 3% 25% 11% 10% 7% 6% 10% 5% 18% 32% 14% 12% 9% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% College Towns: Non-family households, with many students living alone or with roommates. They are image conscious and seek the last fashions. They go out to the movies and for drinks. Their limited incomes limit spending. Median age: 24.3 and median HH income is $28,000 39% 7% 6% 6% 6% In Style: Married couples, college educated, who embrace urban lifestyle that includes support of the arts, travel and extensive reading. They prefer organic foods and invest in home remodeling. Median age: 41.1 and median HH income is $66,000 College Towns In Style Small Town Simplicity Emerald City Heartland Communities Midlife Constants Rustbelt Traditions The Great Outdoors Old and Newcomers Others The Great Outdoors: Married couples who enjoy outdoor activities such as hiking, hunting, fishing and boating. Consumers are educated empty nesters living an active but modest lifestyle Median age: 46.3 and median HH income is $53,000 Small Town Simplicity: Young families and single households with a down-to-earth semi-rural lifestyle. They are community oriented, favor convenience and are price conscious shoppers. Median age: 40 and median HH income is $27,000 Source: ESRI Business Analyst, 2016 Emerald City: Well educated, young and mobile residents. They are environmentally conscious and frequent galleries. Many embrace a foodie culture and enjoy cooking local and organic foods. Median age: 36.6 and median HH income is $52,000

28 Retail Leakage Analysis Oneonta, NY 3 mile radius 5 mile radius 15 mile radius 187M 632M Business Sales Residential Buying Power + 445M Visitor Spending 248M 704M Business Sales Residential Buying Power + 456M Visitor Spending 912M Business Sales 636M Residential Buying Power + 275M Visitor Spending

29 Market Data Shortcomings What about non-residents?

30 Workforce Demand Oneonta, NY 1 mile 4,807 total workers 3 mile 10,596 total workers 5 mile 11,247 total workers The highest density of workers is found in downtown Oneonta with over 2,500 jobs per mile. Despite higher worker density, the 3 mile radius trade area has a 1:1.7 worker to resident ratio, indicating that local residents generate higher demand for goods and services than workers. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, OnTheMap Application and LEHD Origin-Destination Employment Statistics (2nd Quarter of 2014)

31 Visitor Demand Cooperstown 4.2% of tickets Milford 1.6 % of tickets Worcester 2 % of tickets Oneonta, NY Foothills Ticket Sales: 60% of total tickets sold within 35 minute drive, equivalent to a 15 to 18 mile radius. Data collected from combined Constant Contact database and Frontgate ticket sales. Norwich 2.7 % of tickets Bainbridge 2.3 % of tickets Sidney 2.4 % of tickets Morris 1% of tickets Unadilla 2 % of tickets Otego 3.8 % of tickets Laurens 1% of tickets Franklin 2 % of tickets Oneonta 25% of tickets Delhi 3.1 % of tickets Schenevus 1% of tickets Davenport 1% of tickets Stamford 1% of tickets Walton 3.4 % of tickets Hamden 1% of tickets

32 Combined Employment & Visitor Data Market Composition 1 Mile - Elmira Numbers based on 1 mile radius of Downtown Elmira. Source: ESRI 2016, OntheMap Application and Elmira College website.

33 Assessing Context PHYSICAL ENVIRONMENT & BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT

34 Business Environment Oneonta, NY 1 Healthcare services Convenience-oriented retail Casual dining Lower price point 2 Healthcare Services and Convenience Dining and Entertainment Full-service restaurants Cafes and lounge bars Miscellaneous retail Farmers Market on Saturdays Higher price point 3 Services + Institutions City Hall Oneonta DMV Various bank institutions 4 Foothills + Garage Foothills Theater Municipal parking garage Auto-oriented Scattered retail establishments Roots Brewing Co. Simply Thai Bassett Healthcare Fiesta Mexican Grill 1 Community Bank 2 Green Earth Market Retail Microclimates YMCA 3 Oneonta DMV Red Caboose Restaurant Key Bank Latte Lounge Oneonta City Hall 4 Foothills Performing Arts Center Stella Luna

35 Business Environment Elmira, NY Business Nodes Scattered business Limited concentration along Main and W Water Street. Each circle corresponds to a business with the following NAICS Codes: 445 (Food Selling Establishments), 446 (Pharmacies), 448 (Clothing and Accessories Stores), 522 (Banks and Credit Institutions) and 722 (Eating and Drinking Establishments). Business Presence (NAICS 445, 446, 448, 522, 722)* Chemung Canal Trust Co. The North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) is the standard used by Federal statistical agencies in classifying business establishments for data collection, analysis, and publishing. TOPS Supermarket Dollar Tree Source: ESRI Business Analyst 2016

36 Physical Environment Oneonta, NY Traffic Counts are moderate between 8,970 and 10,623 ADT. Vehicle Traffic Counts (ADT) Unlikely to attract national retailers, many of whom have minimum threshold traffic requirements. A few examples include: 11,000 20,000 ADT Family Dollar Dunkin Donuts 24,000 59,000 ADT Applebee s Walgreens Old Navy 9,283 6,236 9,920 2,960 2,516 8,970 12,931 10,623 14,246 16,913 ADT: Average Daily Traffic Source: NY State DOT, Traffic Data Viewer, 2015

37 Physical Environment Oneonta, NY Parking 4 parking areas provide 855 spots on-street parking spots. 3.8 parking spots per 1,000 SF of ground floor retail Parking garage not maximized due to poor connections to retail corridor. P P P P P LEGEND P Parking lot P Parking garage * Many downtowns focused on increasing walkability are promoting a 2:1,000 SF parking to retail ratio, whereas typical malls offer a between 4 6: 1,000 SF parking to retail ratio.

38 Physical Environment Oneonta, NY Historic character and pedestrian oriented Main Street Good conditions of streetscape (clean sidewalks, tree coverage, presence of benches) Public Realm

39 Physical Environment Continuous street-level retail wall along Main Street Overall good conditions of storefronts, but many would benefit from storefront improvements Retail visibility and signage: current signage make it difficult for pedestrians to identify them. Lack of transparency: A number of businesses cover their storefront windows with posters, curtains Private Realm

40 ADMINISTRATIVE CAPACITY

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42 DEVELOPING AN ACTION PLAN

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45 Elmira, NY

46 Elmira, NY

47 Elmira, NY

48 Some retail offerings, but limited in appeal Perception of safety Physical conditions Kingston, NY

49 Main Street, Catskill, NY

50 Attractive physical environment Density of retail Oneonta, NY

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52 What does it take to move from Quadrant to Quadrant? Time Change does not often happen quickly, especially if major redevelopment investments are required Resources Identification of assets and the consistent application of human capital and financial resources over time Leadership/Expertise Leadership expertise and skills that are a good fit for the interventions required at any given time.

53 How do you use it? Communicate shared goals/visions Advocacy Facilitate grant/funding requests

54 Questions?