ICWP Forum. Nov 15 th R Watson

Transcription

1 ICWP Forum Nov 15 th 2012 R Watson

2 Market Insight Service Provide 240 reports per year UK Nielsen Retail data UK & Global Import Export Data Food service data Summary reports Bespoke Inquiries Register for Market e-alert

3 Contents Economic Context UK Shopper & Consumer Trends Seafood Retail Trends CWP Trends Insights

4 Economic Context Inflation remains the main reason that shoppers expect to become worse-off over the next year. Source; IGD Shopper Vista

5 UK Shopper Consumer confidence remains low The number of shoppers expecting to become worse-off in future is trending slowly downwards. However, 44% still expect to become worse-off in the future. Consumer confidence remains at a low ebb although many feel that the worst is behind them Over half of UK shoppers report making more effort to manage the volume of groceries purchased over the last 6 months, using a range of methods. Families were most likely to report this behaviour. The provenance trend has not accelerated patriotic packaging and campaigns have resonated well, but have not fuelled interest in British or local sourcing any further. Source: IGD ShopperVista, base: all main shoppers, fieldwork Jul 12

6 Shoppers are not spending any more but they continue to shop differently... More Channels On Line Value Retailers Lifestyle Needs Eating out less Preparing Food at Home Cooking at Home Shopping for the next 3 days More Promotions High levels of promotion Increased use of loyalty schemes Coupons at the Checkout / Mail Vouchers in the Press or On Line Different Baskets Less spend on the very big baskets Shopping at smaller stores Limiting discretionary spend

7 However the UK Shopper is prepared to pay a bit more for high quality and added value ingredients % Top 5 mentions More high quality ingredients More convenience More Exclusivity More Innovative products packaging More retailer own brands Less focus on health benefits Less focus on welfare and quality assurance standards Less focus on big Brands Source: IGD ShopperVista, base: all main shoppers, fieldwork Jan 12

8 Out of all the proteins, fish is seen to be the most scary An alien fear unknown and uncertain afraid of something different It s driven by a lack of knowledge 1. What it looks like Whole fish is off-putting head and eyes Shellfish 2. Bones 3. Fishy smell When purchase and when cook 4. How to cook Bake, grill, fry? What do you do with the shell? 5. Undercook or overcook Difficult to get right Worries over food poisoning (negative press) I have never bought salmon I just don t really know what I am supposed to do with it?

9 Decision criteria Chilled = Occasion Quality Freshness Visual appearance Colour Water in pack Recipe/Availability Determines type of species Repertoire Number of mouths to feed Size of pieces Pack sizes i.e. number of pieces Price Per portion Offers For a special occasion respondents tend to buy from the counter but only those who feel comfortable in approaching the staff. Intimidation deters some from investigating the counter offering Frozen = Convenience Quality Regular purchase Price Brand Offers Offers Less important in both categories Provenance supporting the seafood industry for a sustainable, Sustainability profitable future Catch Method Number of mouths to feed Pack sizes i.e. number of pieces

10 TOTAL FISH

11 Total Fish has seen a growth of 134m over the latest MAT, this has however been driven by price, with volume actually decreasing year on year Total Coverage Total Fish Category overview 52wk vs YA Source: Nielsen Scantrack 52 WK To Data WE

12 COLD WATER PRAWNS

13 CWP Consumer perceptions Low levels of interest / involvement; Not much market stimulus Little knowledge or concern about prawn species. Small size insubstantial main meal Commodity feel - like frozen peas Perceived poor value for money due to size & large pack size leads to wastage

14 CW Prawns declining by 12m, with a 12.6% decline in volume.. Total Coverage CW Prawns Category overview 52WK vs YA Source: Nielsen Scantrack 52 WK To Data WE

15 Fewer Buyers are buying less frequently and spending less on per trip despite more spend on offer.. Total Coverage Cold Water Prawns KPI Tree 52wk vs YA Penetration Frequency Trip Price per Penetration No. (000s) % Contribution = m Price per % Contribution = 12m Trip % Contribution = - 4.4m Frequency 3.35 trips -5.25% Contribution = m Trip Spend % Contribution = 7.57m AWP (Spend per Buyer) % Contribution = 1.72m Expenditure 107m -3.01% Decrease of 3.31m Source: Homescan 52 w/e 15-Oct-11 vs 52 w/e 13-Oct-12

16 WW Prawns is seeing growth of 15m and unit by 3m, with more buyers and buying more frequently and spending more on each trip. Total coverage WW Prawns Category overview 52WK vs YA Source: Nielsen Scantrack 52 WK To Data WE

17 Both Fresh CW Prawns and Frozen CW Prawns are key driver of decline in CW Prawns. The main driver of this decline is ROS, with some losses in distribution for Fresh in Groc Mults and Impulse. Total coverage CW Prawns sectors Value sales 52WK vs YA Fresh CW Prawns Frozen CW Prawns supporting the seafood industry for a sustainable, profitable Source: future Nielsen Scantrack 52 WK To Data WE

18 Generally retailers are increasing the spend on offer. Top Retailers Promotion mechanics CW Prawns 52WK vs YA % On Offer 23% 36% 22% 29% 16% 22% 49% 34% 27% 25% MAT LY MAT TY MAT LY MAT TY MAT LY MAT TY MAT LY MAT TY MAT LY MAT TY Multibuy Price Reduction Source: Nielsen Homescan 52 WK To Data WE

19 WW Frozen prawns buyers are spending more on offers in big retailers. CW Frozen Prawns could do more promotion to help drive additional sales. Top Retailers % Spend on offer Frozen prawns 52WK vs YA % 62.2% 52.8% 33.9% 35.5% 31.2% 31.5% 30.1% 21.4% 12.8% 14.1% 16.8% 13.3% 7.6% Iceland Waitrose Morrisons Sainsbury's Asda Tesco All Other WW Prawns Frozen CW Prawns Frozen Source: Nielsen Homescan 52 WK To Data WE

20 CW Frozen prawns buyers are switching to WW Frozen Prawns. Total coverage Buyer Profile index 52WK vs YA Source: Nielsen Homescan 52 WK To Data WE

21 Within retailers, there has been a lot of movement with Waitrose and Sainsbury's being the key winners.

22 Waitrose have been successful in growth through driving AWOP. Tesco on the flip side have been in decline, through losing buyers and the amount existing buyers purchase. % Value Basis = (000)s Source: Homescan Brand Shifting - Gains Loss

23 Chilled to appeal to more affluent buyers with frozen appealing to larger less affluent households. Both sectors appeal to older households. 0 CW Prawns Chilled CW Prawns Frozen Social Class AB 25 C1 28 C2 20 D 15 E Household Size Housewife Age Working Status Not Working 44 Full-time 36 Part-time MAT TY

24 Frozen tend to over index in mature and established families and presence of kids, more so than Fresh %GB Hholds CW Prawns Fresh CW Prawns Frozen Lifestage Pre Family 11 New Family 6 Mat Family 12 Est Family 9 Post Family 20 Older Cples 22 Older Sngls Regionality London 18 S & SE 10 Anglia 7 Central 15 South West 3 Wales & W 8 Yorks 10 North East 5 Lancs/Bord 14 Scotland Presence of Kids Yes 25 No MAT TY

25 What's going on in the Cold Water Prawns market? Category is in decline (- 12m) driven by drop in volume Fewer Buyers are buying less frequently and spending less on per trip despite more spend on offer. Both Fresh CW Prawns and Frozen CW Prawns are key driver of decline in CW Prawns. The main driver of this decline is ROS, with some losses in distribution for Fresh in Groc Mults and Impulse. Natural is main format is decline, with the second largest format (prepared) seeing slight growth) CW Prawns category is not gaining as many news buyers as they are losing, how can you attract new buyers into this sector? Generally retailers are increasing the spend on offer. Morrison's is one exception but spend on offer is still one of highest. Asda and Iceland are following macro FMCG trends of increasing price reductions, this could be an opportunity for the other key retailers Fresh tend to appeal to more affluent buyers with frozen appealing to larger less affluent households. both sectors appeal to older households.

26 What's going on in the Warm Water Prawns market? Warm Water Prawns are seeing growth of 15m over the latest MAT Price has been a key contributor to growth but people are also buying more and buying more often Some shifting from Cols water prawns, Cod and Haddock Frozen segment is driving growth within WW Prawns With Frozen Natural driving this m Tesco have been key in driving value growth in WW Prawns through attracting new customers, getting existing customers to buy more and through gains from The Co-Op Asda. Is there an opportunity to drive sales in Sainsbury's? As a sector WW prawns sell more on promotion than CW, with Sainsbury's selling the most on promotion. This however is not helping them to drive sales, and may want to look at changing mechanics to price reduction Frozen is more important to larger households and Fresh over index in more affluent buyers. There has been little change vs last year

27 Time to reverse the trend Generate excitement (get out of special occasion /seasonal mindset-open up new younger market) Stimulate - New exciting recipes on pack/website/celebrity chef/in-store trials Exploit Key Trends - Cook from scratch / Snacking /Sharing /Sandwich & Wraps / Noodle bars Innovate Meal kits, with fresh veg, ingredients, herbs & spices Tom yam soup, noodle trends, Goan Curry, twist on retro prawn cocktail, Jerk shrimp, popcorn shrimp Meal sized bags tip into curry/stir-fry (reduced glaze) Individual snack pots Microwave easy cook steam bags keep succulent Reusable microwave defrost pot, self draining bottom Wrap & Sandwich kits / Dips and creative sauces Fun Sharing Devils platter with range of chilli dipping sauces from mild to insanity cocktail sticks & crudités

28 Time to reverse the trend Format: Think chilled premium appeal to fresh sell flavour Flavoursome perception of quality & reduce commodity feel Inform: Clarify ready to eat message prevent over cooking Outside the box: Turn by-product into delicious Premium product lobster tails beats tasteless surimi Chinese prawn toast Indian prawn Puri