Downtown Vancouver Blackout 2008: Assessing Disruptions to Businesses

Transcription

1 Downtown Vancouver Blackout 2008: Assessing Disruptions to Businesses March 16 th, 2010 by Rajan Dhariwal School of Community and Regional Planning University of British Columbia West Mall Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z2 Canada Project: Analyzing Infrastructures for Disaster-Resilient Communities Project Website: Acknowledgements: Dr. Tim McDaniels, Dr. Stephanie Chang, Courtney Beaubien, Thien Phan, and Lauren Dawson Supported by Infrastructure Canada

2 Abstract This study s goal is to better understand how the blackout of July 14th, 2008 affected businesses in downtown Vancouver, as well as the steps that these businesses took to deal with the loss of power. The methodological approach consisted of collecting primary data directly from representatives of the buildings and businesses in the impacted area shortly after the blackout occurred. A 21-question survey was developed with a range of questions about: the characteristics of the buildings, the extent of power loss, the use of backup power generators, and other questions related to consequences of power outage to building functions and business operations. The impacted area where the survey was administered was identified through secondary sources such as newspapers and websites, and every building in this area was included. Recruitment for the study was conducted in person. In total, 266 surveys were conducted of which 56.0% were commercial businesses. Of the buildings in the sample, 56.0% indicated that power had been lost. The majority of buildings had power restored within three days of the blackout, with the remainder being restored after four days. Only 27.1% of the respondents had backup power. Of this subset, 14.3% reported that their backup generators did not function properly. Almost 42% of the businesses surveyed were forced to close for some length of time as a result of the power outage. Of these 97.4% were able to re-open within three days. Transportation-related problems due to the blackout caused problems for employees coming to work, receiving deliveries, and allowing customers to reach the businesses. Interdependent infrastructure issues caused by the loss of electric power adversely impacted 44.0% of the businesses. Financial losses were as high as $200,000 in extreme cases, although 75.0% of the businesses had their losses limited to below $4,000. The largest proportion of respondents estimated their loss to be in the range of 1~24% of their normal revenue. Despite the disruption caused by the blackout, only 15.0% of businesses expected to make any changes to future business operations for emergency preparedness. 2

3 Table of Contents Objectives...4 Methods...4 Analysis...6 3

4 Objectives This report is concerned with studying the impacts of power loss in City of Vancouver s downtown core as a result of the blackout event in the summer of Specifically, data were gathered to understand how the July 14 th blackout affected businesses in downtown Vancouver as well as the actions that the local businesses took to cope with the loss of power. Data were collected primarily through a survey of local businesses that are located within the affected area. In this report, the data are analyzed for frequencies. This research is part of a larger project that seeks to identify the impacts of infrastructure failures in disasters and how these can be reduced from a regional perspective. Consequently, the key research objectives for this report are largely shaped by the larger project on the impacts of infrastructure failures. Methods Because this study required primary data, a survey was chosen as the main information source 1. Primary data were required because no other data sources existed for this event aside from localized, anecdotal reporting in newspapers. This survey was used to collect data from businesses located within the affected area. The area affected by the downtown blackout was identified through secondary sources such as websites and newspaper coverage. An inventory of businesses in the area was then developed through city business directories or registries to determine which businesses, and approximately how many, needed to be interviewed. In this event the impacted area was comprised of only a few city blocks in Vancouver s downtown core so the questions from the survey were asked in person. As a result of the study area being geographically small, every building that fell within the boundaries of the blackout was included. However, some buildings were home to numerous businesses, in which case a sample was taken instead of speaking with every one. In these situations, the research team identified the main types of businesses by sector (e.g., restaurants) in the building and attempted to interview one business from each type. The participants for this study were comprised of building 1 This study underwent a Human Subjects ethics approval by the Behavioural Research Ethics Board at the University of British Columbia 4

5 managers and managers and/or employees of businesses that were affected by the power outage. 2 The survey itself was comprised of 21 questions in total. The first four questions of the survey were intended to summarize the characteristics of the buildings, including the type of building, the number and types of businesses that it held, and business size of the businesses being interviewed. The remaining 17 questions covered topics that pertained to: - The position of the interviewee - Whether or not the building lost power - The existence of backup generators - The specific building functions that were impacted - The main problems encountered because of the blackout 2 Recruitment was conducted in person at the place of employment for the respondents. This approach was chosen for three reasons: 1. This study is time sensitive, since the interest that respondents have in participating is expected to decrease as time passes after the event of July 14 th, Additionally, time is also a consideration for the accuracy of the responses. Expectations are that the answers given to the survey questions will have a greater accuracy if they are asked soon after the event. 2. The geographic scope of this study is comprised of only a few city blocks, so it is feasible to collect data on every building, and some businesses, within this area. 3. The survey had been designed to be short, and the expectations were that each questionnaire would only take 10~15 minutes to complete. Therefore, in-person recruitment was deemed to be the most effective approach. At each building, a researcher approached the reception desk or information area and explained the purpose of the study. The researcher then asked to speak with the business manager or other on-duty employee who was knowledgeable about the impacts of the blackout on their own business. In addition to explaining the nature of the study the researcher would also ask the business representative if they were willing to participate in the study. If the representative consented to partake in the study, they were asked if the interview could be conducted at that time. If not, a subsequent time was scheduled to conduct the survey. Before beginning the interview, the researcher reviewed the consent form with the participant and provided a copy for him/her to keep. After this, the interview commenced. 5

6 - The cost to the business - The expected change in impacts if the blackout occurred at a different date and time, and - Changes in business operations for emergency preparedness These questions were closed-ended, but, notes were taken from the discussion of these survey questions for the purposes of the analysis. The survey was administered over a period of nine days at a time period of approximately six weeks after the blackout event. Once collected, the data were compiled and sorted according to the questions asked. Using the SPSS statistical software package, simple calculations were then derived from the dataset to establish frequencies. Analysis and Results In total, there were 266 surveys that were conducted, representing the total number of buildings that were included in this study. Table 1 provides a breakdown of the building types from the study. Table 1: Building Type in Study Area Frequency Valid Percent Commercial Residential 1.4 Mixed use Other Institutional Total The predominant building type in the study region was commercial, followed by mixed use; these accounted for 56.0% and 39.5% of the buildings respectively. The buildings themselves had varying numbers of businesses housed inside, with 61.0% of them falling in the range of 2-10 businesses per building. There was considerably less variation in the size of the businesses that were surveyed, with the majority considered to 6

7 be small. A small business is defined as employing less than 20 employees. Of the 266 respondents, many did not reply to certain questions, resulting in a different total number of completed responses for each question. In this analysis, only the valid percent will be reported on. Valid percentages refer to the percentage of respondents who actually answered each question, excluding those who did not answer because they did not know the answer or because they chose not to. The valid percentage varies between questions, since each respondent was able to answer a different combination of questions due to their differing levels of knowledge on what happened to their building/business during the blackout. For example, out of the 266 survey respondents, only 191 were able to answer the question about whether their business lost power, whereas 177 responded to the question about the occupation of the interviewee. Of the 191 that were able to respond to this question, 56% lost power in the blackout of July 14 th, 2008 which occurred on a Monday at approximately 9 am. The full breakdown of power restoration dates is presented in Table 2. Although it took up to four days for the power to be restored in these buildings, the majority had regained electricity by the morning of July 17 th, a full three days after the initial event. However, in the early stages of the blackout, the power loss remained widespread, with the largest portion of electric power restoration occurring two days after the power was lost (i.e., on the morning of July 16 th ). Of the buildings that did not lose power, 5.8% were on a different grid, and 89.9% were not affected at all. This latter group was asked to answer the questionnaire because the precise area of impact was uncertain prior to this study. An approximate blackout area was used to determine which buildings to include, with the results of the questionnaire providing a better indication of the area that was affected. The remaining 4.3% did not lose power due to backup generators in the building. 7

8 Table 2 Date Power Restored (if lost) Frequency Valid Percent July 14 am July 14 pm July 15 am July 15 pm July 16 - am July 16 - pm July 17 - am July 17 - pm July Total Backup generators that are properly maintained have been shown to reduce the disruption caused by power failures by ensuring there is electricity in the event that the main source of energy is unavailable. Of the businesses that replied, 27.1% stated that their business had a backup generator, which means that nearly three quarters of the businesses in the study did not. Within the minority that had backup electricity, 14.3% did not function properly. The blackout of July 2008 affected a number of components of the infrastructure in Vancouver s downtown core. Lighting was the building function that was most adversely impacted, with 53.4% of the buildings surveyed indicating there was disruption. Security and HVAC also experienced a higher proportion of outages, with 34.9% and 39.7% of the buildings impacted respectively. The least impact was felt on elevators, water, and sewage. Very few of the buildings in the survey were forced to close as a result of the blackout. Of those who responded, 19.5% of the buildings closed their doors on the day of the power loss. As Table 3 shows, the disruption caused buildings to be closed for as long as five days in total, despite the fact that 97.4% of the buildings had re-opened after three days. Although the building closures were limited, there was a significantly higher proportion of businesses that had to close within the impacted buildings. A full 41.4% of 8

9 the businesses surveyed were closed for some length of time as a result of the power outages. The full length of closures ranged from one to five days with 97.4% re-opening their businesses after three days. Table 3 Length Business Closed (if closed) Less than 1 day Frequency Valid Percent day days days days days Total Transportation-related problems were a cause of concern for the businesses in the blackout area. This was manifest in a number of ways. One transportation-related impact was that 15.6% of employees had difficulties coming to work. In addition, 18.8% of businesses had difficulty receiving deliveries while 30.2% saw a reduction in customers from their normal numbers. The main problems caused by the 2008 blackout were related to interdependent issues. Interdependencies refer to failures in one system that can have a spin-off effect on other infrastructure systems due to connectivity between them. For example, traffic problems may arise from an electrical power outage because of disruptions to traffic lights. Out of those who responded to the question, 44.0% of businesses had interdependent problems from the loss of electric power. In comparison, 41.4% of respondents felt that their main problems were directly related to the loss of power itself. These results indicate that not only is power loss an issue, but that the cascading impacts of power loss are also a cause for concern. Regardless of the source of the main problems, the blackout was deemed to be very disruptive for 42.8% of the survey respondents. In comparison, 10.2% thought that the blackout was somewhat disruptive, while 4.9% felt that it was not very disruptive. The remaining 40.1% felt that the 9

10 blackout was not at all disruptive, presumably because they were not negatively impacted by the power loss. Another way to measure this disruption is by assessing monetary loss caused by the loss of power. Of those who responded, 75.0% lost $4000 or less, while a few businesses lost as much as $200,000 because of the disruption caused by the blackout. Table 4 provides the full distribution of financial losses across the businesses. In terms of the losses as percentages of normal business revenue, the largest proportion indicated that losses were between 1-24% of their normal revenue, while 13.2% of the respondents actually experienced an increase when compared to their normal revenue. Table 4 Financial Cost to Businesses Frequency Valid Percent $ $ $ $ $ $ $ , $10,000-15, $20, $30, $45, $100, $200, Total The blackout of 2008 occurred on a Monday morning in the month of July. If this event had occurred at different times and for a longer period it is likely that the impacts would have been different. The survey asked for the expectations of the respondents for a similar blackout event if it were to occur on a weekend instead of on a weekday. Out of those who replied, 40.4% expected the disruption to have been the same. Of interest, 10

11 more businesses expected the disruption would be much less (19.9%) than expected it would be much more (9.3%). This is perhaps indicative of the busier nature of weekdays for certain businesses within any given week when compared to weekends. The survey also asked the businesses to respond to differences in disruption had the blackout occurred outside the summer months instead of during the summer. This time, an even larger proportion (58.9%) expected the disruption to be the same. Of the remaining respondents the answers at the extremes were the opposite of the previous question. This time only 6.0% expected there to be less disruption outside the summer while 11.3% expected greater disruption. This suggests that the summer months are a quieter time of year for the businesses in this survey and the time of year when the blackout occurred helped reduce some of the disruption. Finally, it was asked if the disruption to businesses would have differed had the blackout lasted for a full week. Only 9.5% expected there to be somewhat more disruption while the remaining 90.5% expected that the disruption would have been much more. These results indicate that businesses are not prepared for a lengthier power outage. The final questions asked about the impact that the blackout experience had on the way businesses operated in any way, including how they plan for emergencies. The vast majority, at 85.0% of respondents, indicated that the blackout event would have no impact on future business operations. Of the 15.0% that suggested the experience will alter their business operations, the most common change was to purchase a backup generator, followed by a review of existing emergency and fire plans and staff training. 11