COM S. Zaffos

Transcription

1 S. Zaffos Research Note 9 October 2002 Commentary Disk Storage Price Forecast, 2H02: Continued Declines RAID prices will continue to decline as vendors battle for market share and shift revenue to software. Modular arrays will maintain their historic price advantage, even as their functionality and capacity improve. Since our previous forecast in August 2001 (see "Disk Storage Price Forecast: Continued Declines"), disk hardware system prices have declined at an annual rate of more than 40 percent. Changes in vendors' relationships, pricing strategies, a narrowing of functional differences, new technology and difficult economic conditions indicate that the current rate of price erosion will continue through Tough economic conditions have led multiple vendors to pursue a strategy of not losing on price in their battle for market share. This has created a buyer's market and set an expectation level of ever-lower hardware prices. Further aggravating the situation from a vendor perspective is the growing competition between modular and monolithic arrays. Storage area network (SAN)-attached modular storage pulls down the price of monolithic storage, which pushes down modular prices. At the same time, modular prices are pulling down monolithic prices; new Advanced Technology Attachment (ATA)-based products will inevitably begin to pull down modular prices as the products are market-validated. Storage vendors have responded to this treadmill of ever-lower hardware prices by shifting revenue, and margins, from hardware to software. In fact, EMC has created a separate software group and has already gained a leadership position in the storage management software market. The very success of EMC's strategy provides yet another incentive for EMC to compete on hardware prices, because much of its software revenue is derived from software running on storage systems. Despite the ruthless nature of competition in the storage market, we continue to find enterprises consistently paying premiums of 50 percent to 100 percent (or more) compared with more-generic alternatives when they have been "locked in" to a specific vendor solution. This suggests that valueadded features should be deployed only to meet service-level agreements (SLAs) or when they result in an overall saving. Hence, the total cost of ownership (TCO) model should include all acquisition costs and operational savings, including SAN devices, SAN design services, software costs (for example, software installation, one-time charges, maintenance), operational savings and lost-opportunity costs. Best pricing is obtained by enterprises that invite at least three vendors to bid for each type of storage modular or monolithic and by negotiating upgrade and maintenance prices upfront. Without this type of Gartner Entire contents 2002 Gartner, Inc. All rights reserved. Reproduction of this publication in any form without prior written permission is forbidden. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Gartner disclaims all warranties as to the accuracy, completeness or adequacy of such information. Gartner shall have no liability for errors, omissions or inadequacies in the information contained herein or for interpretations thereof. The reader assumes sole responsibility for the selection of these materials to achieve its intended results. The opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice.

2 intense competition, the prices enterprises pay for their storage will generally be higher than necessary, and very much determined by the precedents set with their current storage vendors. Detailed negotiating tactics are included in "Getting the Most From Your Infrastructure Dollar." Table 1, Table 2, Table 3, Table 4, Table 5, Table 6, Table 7, Table 8 and Table 9 provide our current price forecasts through 2H03 for physical or raw configured capacity and include host bus adapters (HBAs), cache and support equipment (for example, electronics, frames, power supplies), but do not include software license fees. Table 1 Prices for Dot Hill Disk Systems ($ per Physical Gigabyte) SANnet-36 $35.30 to $49.10 $26.60 to $35.30 $26.20 to $37.00 $19.80 to $26.20 $19.40 to $27.00 $14.70 to $19.40 Table 2 Prices for EMC Disk Systems ($ per Physical Gigabyte) $60.20 to $83.70 $35.80 to $60.20 $48.70 to $70.70 $29.00 to $48.70 $39.50 to $55.20 $23.50 to $ $53.20 to $76.20 $29.20 to $53.20 $43.10 to $60.60 $23.60 to $43.10 $34.90 to $49.90 $19.20 to $ $45.50 to $62.40 $23.60 to $45.50 $36.90 to $52.90 $19.10 to $36.90 $29.90 to $42.30 $15.50 to $ $72.60 to $ $40.00 to $72.60 $58.80 to $82.50 $32.40 to $58.80 $47.60 to $65.90 $26.20 to $ $65.40 to $93.50 $33.30 to $65.40 $53.00 to $75.80 $26.90 to $38.70 $42.90 to $62.60 $21.80 to $ $57.00 to $81.80 $27.70 to $57.00 $46.20 to $67.00 $22.40 to $31.20 $37.40 to $53.50 $18.20 to $37.40 FC $31.70 to $43.10 $21.70 to $31.70 $25.70 to $33.90 $17.60 to $25.70 $20.80 to $28.40 $14.30 to $20.80 FC $27.20 to $38.00 $17.30 to $27.20 $22.00 to $30.30 $14.00 to $22.00 $17.90 to $25.50 $11.40 to $17.90 CX $34.70 to $48.60 $22.70 to $34.70 $25.80 to $38.00 $16.90 to $25.80 $19.10 to $28.70 $12.50 to $19.10 CX $30.10 to $41.70 $18.30 to $30.10 $22.40 to $31.80 $13.60 to $22.40 $16.60 to $24.30 $10.10 to $ October

3 Table 3 Prices for Hitachi/Hitachi Data Systems Disk Systems ($ per Physical Gigabyte) $65.10 to $90.80 $37.50 to $65.10 $48.30 to $69.30 $27.80 to $48.30 $35.80 to $52.50 $20.60 to $ $58.10 to $80.20 $30.80 to $58.10 $43.10 to $59.30 $22.90 to $43.10 $32.00 to $45.60 $17.00 to $ $50.10 to $69.40 $25.20 to $50.10 $37.20 to $53.20 $18.70 to $37.20 $27.60 to $38.90 $13.90 to $ $75.00 to $ $40.80 to $75.00 $55.70 to $79.90 $30.30 to $55.70 $41.30 to $59.70 $22.50 to $ $67.90 to $95.20 $34.10 to $67.90 $50.30 to $70.50 $25.30 to $50.30 $37.30 to $53.10 $18.80 to $ $59.40 to $83.10 $28.50 to $59.40 $44.00 to $63.10 $21.10 to $44.00 $32.70 to $45.60 $15.70 to $ V-36 $80.00 to $ $42.40 to $80.00 $59.40 to $82.60 $31.50 to $59.40 $44.00 to $60.90 $23.40 to $ V-73 $72.80 to $ $35.70 to $72.80 $54.00 to $75.40 $26.50 to $54.00 $40.00 to $55.50 $19.70 to $ V-36 $89.90 to $ $45.80 to $89.90 $66.70 to $94.50 $33.90 to $50.10 $49.50 to $68.60 $25.20 to $ V-73 $82.50 to $ $39.00 to $82.50 $61.20 to $86.40 $28.90 to $61.20 $45.40 to $62.20 $21.50 to $ $45.80 to $60.70 $26.70 to $45.80 $34.00 to $48.80 $19.80 to $34.00 $25.20 to $35.20 $14.70 to $ $38.60 to $53.30 $21.20 to $38.60 $28.70 to $39.80 $15.70 to $28.70 $21.30 to $30.70 $11.70 to $ October

4 Table 4 Prices for Hewlett-Packard/Compaq Disk Systems ($ per Physical Gigabyte) xp48-36 $76.50 to $ $44.00 to $76.50 $56.80 to $80.20 $32.70 to $56.80 $42.10 to $57.80 $24.20 to $42.10 xp48-73 $68.20 to $95.20 $36.20 to $68.20 $50.60 to $71.70 $26.90 to $50.60 $37.50 to $52.60 $19.90 to $37.50 xp $58.90 to $82.80 $29.60 to $58.90 $43.70 to $61.50 $22.00 to $43.70 $32.40 to $44.60 $16.30 to $32.40 xp $79.70 to $ $40.00 to $79.70 $59.10 to $82.00 $29.70 to $59.10 $43.90 to $62.60 $22.00 to $43.90 xp $69.70 to $98.00 $33.50 to $69.70 $51.70 to $73.50 $24.80 to $51.70 $38.40 to $53.40 $18.40 to $38.40 xp $94.00 to $ $49.90 to $94.00 $69.70 to $97.00 $37.00 to $69.70 $51.70 to $74.00 $27.40 to $51.70 xp $85.50 to $ $41.90 to $85.50 $63.40 to $89.40 $31.10 to $63.40 $47.00 to $66.10 $23.10 to $47.00 xp $ to $ $53.70 to $ $78.40 to $ $39.90 to $57.90 $58.10 to $82.20 $29.60 to $58.10 xp $97.00 to $ $45.80 to $97.00 $71.90 to $99.50 $34.00 to $71.90 $53.40 to $73.40 $25.20 to $53.40 EMA $31.80 to $44.00 $19.50 to $31.80 $23.60 to $34.40 $14.50 to $23.60 $17.50 to $24.50 $10.80 to $17.50 EMA $28.00 to $39.00 $16.00 to $28.00 $20.80 to $29.70 $11.80 to $20.80 $15.40 to $21.80 $8.80 to $15.40 EVA-36 $39.70 to $54.50 $24.40 to $39.70 $29.40 to $41.40 $18.10 to $29.40 $21.80 to $29.60 $13.40 to $21.80 EVA-73 $35.00 to $48.50 $19.90 to $35.00 $26.00 to $38.10 $14.80 to $26.00 $19.30 to $27.10 $11.00 to $ October

5 Table 5 Prices for IBM Disk Systems ($ per Physical Gigabyte) ESS $80.00 to $ $42.40 to $80.00 $59.40 to $84.10 $31.50 to $46.60 $44.00 to $61.30 $23.40 to $44.00 ESS $72.80 to $ $35.70 to $72.80 $54.00 to $74.80 $26.50 to $54.00 $40.00 to $57.10 $19.70 to $40.00 ESS 800T-36 $85.00 to $ $44.10 to $85.00 $63.00 to $87.60 $32.70 to $46.70 $46.80 to $66.10 $24.30 to $46.80 ESS 800T-73 $77.60 to $ $37.30 to $77.60 $57.60 to $81.00 $27.70 to $57.60 $42.70 to $60.30 $20.60 to $42.70 Table 6 Prices for MTI Technology Disk Systems ($ per Physical Gigabyte) Vivant-36 $29.80 to $41.50 $21.10 to $29.80 $22.10 to $31.80 $15.60 to $22.10 $16.40 to $23.10 $11.60 to $16.40 Table 7 Prices for Seagate/XIOtech Disk Systems ($ per Physical Gigabyte) Seagate/XIOtech-36 $32.20 to $45.00 $21.90 to $32.20 $23.90 to $33.80 $16.20 to $23.90 $17.80 to $23.80 $12.10 to $17.80 Table 8 Prices for StorageTek Disk Systems ($ per Physical Gigabyte) D $32.20 to $42.20 $21.90 to $32.20 $23.90 to $31.00 $16.20 to $23.90 $17.80 to $24.20 $12.10 to $17.80 D $27.70 to $39.10 $17.50 to $27.70 $20.50 to $27.00 $13.00 to $20.50 $15.30 to $20.40 $9.60 to $15.30 V2X $52.10 to $71.70 $28.80 to $52.10 $38.60 to $54.60 $21.40 to $38.60 $28.70 to $41.40 $15.90 to $ October

6 About the Tables Table 9 Prices for Sun Microsystems Disk Systems ($ per Physical Gigabyte) SE $67.60 to $96.60 $38.30 to $67.60 $50.20 to $68.90 $28.40 to $50.20 $37.20 to $52.70 $21.10 to $37.20 SE $60.50 to $84.80 $31.60 to $60.50 $44.90 to $63.70 $23.50 to $44.90 $33.30 to $48.00 $17.40 to $33.30 SE $52.40 to $73.70 $26.00 to $52.40 $38.90 to $53.10 $19.30 to $38.90 $28.90 to $42.00 $14.30 to $28.90 SE $78.50 to $ $41.90 to $78.50 $58.20 to $82.00 $31.10 to $58.20 $43.20 to $60.40 $23.10 to $43.20 SE $71.30 to $ $35.20 to $71.30 $52.90 to $72.80 $26.10 to $52.90 $39.20 to $56.00 $19.40 to $39.20 SE $62.60 to $89.10 $29.60 to $62.60 $46.40 to $63.60 $22.00 to $46.40 $34.40 to $50.10 $16.30 to $34.40 SE 9970V-36 $84.00 to $ $43.80 to $84.00 $62.30 to $86.40 $32.50 to $62.30 $46.20 to $65.30 $24.10 to $46.20 SE 9970V-73 $76.70 to $ $37.00 to $76.70 $56.90 to $79.80 $27.50 to $56.90 $42.20 to $58.70 $20.40 to $42.20 SE 9980V-36 $94.90 to $ $47.40 to $94.90 $70.40 to $ $35.20 to $51.20 $52.20 to $74.00 $26.10 to $52.20 SE 9980V-73 $87.40 to $ $40.60 to $87.40 $64.90 to $91.80 $30.10 to $64.90 $48.10 to $67.30 $22.30 to $48.10 T3-E36 $27.30 to $35.80 $20.20 to $27.30 $20.20 to $28.70 $15.00 to $20.20 $15.00 to $21.90 $11.20 to $ $32.20 to $45.00 $21.90 to $32.20 $23.90 to $33.00 $16.20 to $23.90 $17.80 to $23.60 $12.10 to $ $34.70 to $48.60 $22.70 to $34.70 $25.80 to $36.10 $16.90 to $25.80 $19.10 to $24.90 $12.50 to $19.10 The prices listed are subject to capacity, features and functions, and timing of the acquisition. Price ranges shown are for fully configured subsystems, including disk, controller, cache and channel, but do not include additional hardware, such as remote links or dynamic spares, SAN devices or software. 9 October

7 Pricing in the low end of the range typically represents maximum subsystem configurations that tend to be driven by capacity rather than by ultrahigh performance. Pricing in the high end of the range typically represents a minimum subsystem configuration or configurations tailored to achieve very high performance. Acquisitions made at the end of a quarter, and particularly during a vendor's fiscal year-end, will achieve the most-aggressive discount levels. Although vendor warranties vary in length, most vendors will provide a three-year warranty to close a deal. Bids in excess of $1 million should be considered special bids and receive an additional five to 20 percentage points of discounting below the low-end prices shown. Converting physical capacity into mirrored usable capacity doubles the price-per-megabyte prices shown in the tables. The RAID-5 lift factor will vary with the size of the redundant array of independent disks (RAID) set. For the systems shown in the tables, RAID sets will generally vary in size from four disks (three data and one parity) to eight disks (seven data and one parity). Bottom Line: Rapid hardware price declines will continue at least through 2003, driven by competition, the aggressive adoption of high-capacity disks and SAN technology. At the same time, the software content (value-added features) of a transaction will frequently grow to between one-third and one-half or more of the total transaction value. Managing vendor lock-ins will be the key to avoiding the high cost of noncompetitive bids. 9 October