Plutonium & Highly Enriched Uranium, 2015 Institute for Science and International Security David Albright Serena Kelleher-Vergantini

Transcription

1 This work was generously funded by a grant from the Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI) and builds on earlier work done at ISIS by one of the authors. Plutonium & Highly Enriched Uranium, 2015 Institute for Science and International Security David Albright Serena Kelleher-Vergantini

2 HEU and Plutonium Worldwide End of 2014 Excess 6% Military Stocks 33% 4,005 Tonnes Civil Stocks 61%

3 Civil irradiated plutonium stocks are not represented here Global Inventory of Unirradiated Plutonium and HEU End of ,892 Tonnes

4 HEU and Plutonium Worldwide, End 2014 (tonnes) Plutonium HEU Total Civil Stocks Irradiated 2, Unirradiated 275 Subtotal 2, ,430 Military Stocks Military Stocks and Reserves 129 1,061 Naval Excess Reactors 5.5 Subtotal 240 1,335 1,575 Total 2,627 1,377 4,005

5 Civil HEU and Plutonium National and Global Stocks, as of End 2014

6 Civil HEU Table 1. Civil HEU (initial mass) in NWS and NNWS, end 2014 HEU(tonnes) HEU(kg) Nuclear Weapon States (NWS) , ,051 Non-Nuclear Weapon States (NNWS) ,513-16,775 TOTAL HEU , ,807 Table 2. Largest Civil HEU Stocks in NNWS, end 2014 Country HEU(tonnes) HEU(kg) Belarus Belgium Canada ,035 Germany ,260 Italy Japan 1.8 1,800 Kazakhstan* Netherlands North Korea Poland South Africa TOTAL HEU ,440-6,670 *This table only accounts for Kazakhstan s HEU used for R&D purposes and excludes 10 tonnes of HEU in spent fuel from its breeder reactor.

7 This table only accounts for Kazakhstan s HEU used for R&D purposes and excludes 10 tonnes of HEU in spent fuel from its breeder reactor. Largest Civil HEU Stocks in NNWS, end 2014 North Korea Poland South Africa Belarus Belgium Netherlands Canada Kazakhstan Germany Japan Italy

8 South Africa Kg Total HEU (post irradiation mass) Fresh 80% and 90% Fresh 45%

9 Civil Plutonium Civil Power Reactor Plutonium Held by Country, end 2014 Country Irradiated Plutonium in spent fuel (tonnes) Unirradiated Plutonium (tonnes) Argentina 17.6 Armenia 2.1 Belgium Brazil 5.9 Bulgaria 8.8 Canada 213 China Czech Rep Finland 17.6 France Germany Hungary 10.8 India Italy <0.4 Japan Kazakhstan 3 Lithuania 12.3 Mexico 5.2 Netherlands Pakistan 2.17 Romania 10.4 Russia (b) About 52.7 S. Africa 9.46 S. Korea 97.9 Slovakia 14.3 Slovenia 4.3 Spain 44.4 Sweden 54.4 Switzerland 18.0 <50kg Taiwan 32.4 Ukraine 50.6 U.K U.S.A (c) 629 (u) Totals (rounded) Grand Total 2,388 tonnes

10 Civil Irradiated and Unirradiated Plutonium Worldwide End 2014 Civil Unirradiated Pu 12% Civil Irradiated Pu 88%

11 Unirradiated Civil Power Reactor Plutonium, end 2014 (tonnes) Country A: Holdings in-country B: Holdings in other countries C: Tonnes of A that are foreignowned D: Plutonium owned by a country (A+B-C) Britain France 78.8 less than Belgium <0.05 Germany (b) (b) Japan Switzerland < <0.05 Russia China United States (c) 0 0 (c) India Netherlands Italy Sweden Spain Total (rounded)

12 Tonnes Civil Unirradiated Plutonium, end

13 Tonnes Civil Unirradiated Plutonium in INFCIRC/549 States Totals Civil Unirradiated Plutonium in the countries that submit INFCIRC/549 declarations to the International Atomic Energy Agency

14 Military HEU and Pu Stocks in Acknowledged Nuclear Weapon States End of 2014

15 Military Plutonium in NWS, end 2014 Excess Military Pu 46% Military Pu 54%

16 Military HEU in NWS, end 2014 Excess 9% Military HEU 91%

17 Military and Excess Stocks of Plutonium in the Acknowledged Nuclear Weapon States End of 2014 (tonnes) Country Total a Military Stock b Declared Excess State Declarations United Kingdom c United States d e ISIS Estimates of Stocks China f 1.9 ( ) France g 5.3 ( ) 5 0 Russia h 128 ( ) i j Total 238 ( ) k

18 Estimated Military and Excess Stocks of Highly Enriched Uranium (HEU) in the Acknowledged Nuclear Weapon States, end of 2014 (in tonnes) l Country Military Stocks, in Weapons, Reserves, including naval reserves m Naval Programs, Military Reactors n Production Reactors o Excess for Disposition, via Downblending or Disposal p Original Remaining Total (median) United n.a. 25 Kingdom q China r 19.4 (+ 5) Small none? 0 n.a France s 24 (+ 6) 1 t 5.5 u 0 n.a Russia 660 (+100) v w? x 500 v v 2 U.S. 335 (+10) y z -- aa 239 bb 93 bb,cc cc Subset of total in nuclear weapons program: 225 (+5) y Naval spent fuel: 28 z (7 tonnes overlap) Naval spent fuel: 28 z (7 tonnes overlap) Total (median) 1, p 1,331

19 Military HEU and Plutonium Stocks in NWS, end 2014 Plutonium tonnes 840 HEU Total Fissile Material USA Russia UK France China Plutonium HEU Total Fissile Material HEU Plutonium Total Fissile Material

20 Military Plutonium in NWS end 2014 US Russia UK France China

21 Military HEU in NWS, end 2014 UK China France US Russia

22 Global Stocks 2005 vs. Global Stocks 2015

23 Global Inventory of Plutonium and HEU 2015 Military PU 3% Excess 6% Civil HEU 1% Military HEU 30% 2003 Civil Pu 60% 4,005 Excess 14% Civil HEU 2% Military Pu 4% 3,730 Military HEU 38% Civil Pu 42%

24 Global Inventory of Unirradiated Plutonium and HEU Military PU 7% Excess 12% 2015 Civil HEU 2% 2003 Civil Unirradiated Pu 15% 1,892 Military Pu 6% Excess 22% Civil HEU 2% 2,398 Military HEU 64% Civil Unirradiated Pu 10% Military HEU 60% Civil irradiated plutonium stocks are not represented here.

25 2003 Plutonium Military Pu Civil 5% Unirradiated Pu 11% Excess Pu 4% 2015 Military Pu 8% Civil Unirradiated Pu 13% Excess Pu 6% Civil Irradiated Pu 80% Civil Irradiated Pu 73%

26 HEU 2015 Excess HEU 8% Civil HEU 3% 2003 Excess HEU 22% Civil HEU 3% Military HEU 89% Military HEU 75%

27 India Pakistan North Korea Other States With Nuclear Weapons South Africa Israel

28 India Naval Reactors Thermonuclear Weapons India s HEU and Plutonium Stocks, end 2014 HEU Cores HEU (kg) Range 4-5 containing HEU ,800 Material WGU (kg) Range Weapon-grade Uranium (WGU) Research Reactors Apsara HEU 5 kg TOTAL ,900 Military Plutonium (separated) Civil Plutonium in spent fuel Civil Separated Plutonium Plutonium Weapon-grade Median Value (kg) Range Reactor- and fuel-grade Fuel- or reactor-grade 550 kg ,900 kg 2,900 kg

29 India s HEU and Plutonium Stocks, end 2014 Military Civil Naval Naval 1000 Civil HEU Unirradiated Plutonium Military

30 Pakistan (medians only) HEU Unirradiated Plutonium

31 North Korea's Military Fissile Material Stocks End of 2014 (Kilograms) median only median only Separated Plutonium Irradiated Pu Weapons Grade Uranium - Scenario 1 (Two centrifuge plants) 2-4 Weapons Grade Uranium - Scenario 2 (One centrifuge plant) Kilogram s

32 Estimated Number of Nuclear Weapons Built through 2014 (medians only) Scenario 1-Two Centrifuge Plants Scenario 2-One Centrifuge Plant

33 Israel (medians only) Kg Military Plutonium Civil HEU Military HEU? Kg

34 Thank You David Albright Serena Kelleher-Vergantini