Current and Future Trends in the Chinese Stainless Steel Market

Transcription

1 Current and Future Trends in the Chinese Stainless Steel Market Joint seminar Reassessing the Outlook for Lead, Zinc, Copper and Nickel in China Peter Kaumanns International Stainless Steel Forum, Brussels Lisbon, 28 September 211, Altis Hotel 1 The Global Stainless Steel Market Regional moves Leadership in responsibility vs. society and environment 2

2 The Global Stainless Steel Market Regional and qualitative moves Leadership in responsibility vs. society and environment 3 Apparent Stainless Steel Use: Cold Rolled Flat Products 1, mtpa ± mill t 18, 16, 14, 12, 3% , 8, 6, 4, 32% 37% 14% Source: CRU 3% Others Americas W.-Europe China Other Asia 17% , -.3 2% 11%

3 Apparent Stainless Steel Use: Long Products, Hot Finished 1, mtpa ± 1, t 6, 5, , 3, 2, 1, 34% 11% 35% 18% 29% 33% 24% Source: SMR Others Americas W-Europe China Other Asia +1, % Stainless Steel Shipments: Cold Rolled Flat Products 1, mtpa ± mill t % % 37% 6 5% 4 36% 2% 2 18% % +.2 Others Americas W-Europe China Other Asia Source: CRU 6

4 Stainless Steel Shipments: Long Products, Hot Finished 1, mtpa 6, 5, 4, ± 1, t % 42% 3, 2, 9% 37% 41% 1, 25% 9% 5% ,334 Others Americas W-Europe China Other Asia Source: SMR The Global Stainless Steel Market Regional and qualitative moves Leadership in consolidation Leadership in responsibility vs. society and environment 8

5 Global Stainless Steel Production: China s Market Share 1, tons % 9, 45 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2 2, 1, Q1' 26 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1' 27 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1' 28 Q2 Q3 Q4 China 948 1,327 1,323 1,71 1,635 1,87 1,729 1,973 1,972 1,889 1,653 1,43 1,769 2,298 2,52 2,236 2,67 2,862 2,844 2,943 3,76 3,129 World 6,612 7,165 7,62 7,52 7,584 7,462 5,878 6,913 7,376 7,421 6,277 4,856 4,832 6,29 7,22 6,7 7,624 8,22 7,394 7,645 8,396 8,53 Share Q1' 29 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1' 21 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1' 211 Q Chinese Stainless Crude Steel Production Source: CSSC tonnes 3,5, 3,, 2,5, 2,, Cr 1,5, 1,, CrNi 5, CrMn I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II

6 Stainless Steel Export Champions 21 Spain France 611, ,499 Finland Germany Japan Italy Skorea China Taiwan 812, ,31 1,81,351 1,113,86 1,196,477 1,23,25 1,234,26 (Belgium) tons 1,499,854 25, 5, 75, 1,, 1,25, 1,5, 1,75, 11 Stainless Steel Export Champions First Half Year 211 Spain France Finland Germany Japan Italy Skorea Taiwan 51,14 59,195 72,31 85,586 91,586 98,796 11,976 16,942 (Belgium) 144,537 China Tons per month 167,61 25, 5, 75, 1, 125, 15, 175, 2, 12

7 The Global Stainless Steel Market Regional and qualitative moves Leadership in consolidation Leadership in responsibility vs. society and environment 13 Chinese Stainless Steel Apparent Use: Growth Rates ± % vs. previous year 1 8 Growth of apparent stainless steel use: average 21 21: 24%

8 Chinese Stainless Steel Apparent Use vs. Chinese Stainless Crude Steel Production: Growth Rates ± % vs. previous year 1 Apparent stainless steel use: average 21 21: +24% 8 Stainless crude steel production: average 21 21: +37% Creating Over-Capacity Uncontrolled growth Private ownership Public ownership Countermeasures Restrict permissions Tighten credits Closing of non-productive/outdated capacities 16

9 Having Over-Capacity Results of over-capacity Toughest competition Lowest profitability Countermeasures Doing nothing: forget profitability! Consolidation of supply Closing of non-productive/outdated capacities Try to export 17 Chinese Foreign Trade Stainless Steel (Total) tonnes 25, 2, Export Import Balance 15, 1, 5, -5, -1, -15,

10 Chinese Exports of Selected Goods With Stainless Steel Contents Item Unit HY Welded tubes Tons 4,11 44,995 87,9 15,819 2,342 42,364 8,3 43,81 Kitchen utensils Tons 195, , ,71 324,199 33, , , ,789 Sink, wash basins Tons 3,813 21,65 31,958 43,415 54,681 49,319 74,849 4,584 Cutlery Tons 142, ,132 36, , ,569 36,32 354,69 174,234 Scissor Tons 27,582 56,1 58,573 67,985 7,624 65,318 77,875 41,161 Dish washers 1, units ,76 1,611 1,86 1,8 2,524 1,26 Washing machines 1, units 425 4,5 5,453 8,195 9,23 8,444 11,869 6,74 Micro wave ovens 1, units 8,368 42,238 46,412 51,469 48,54 44,868 53,81 24,7 Source: China Customs House 19 Mid Term Growth Aspects Beijing Antaike some weeks ago released two figures: China s stainless steel capacity in 215: ~ 2 million tons China s apparent stainless steel use 215: ~ 15 million tons Since then: several new announcements for more stainless capacity some plus 3 million tons How to fill the gap of now some 7 million tons crude steel equivalent surplus capacity? 2

11 Chinese Stainless Steel Real Demand: Growth Rates ± % vs. previous year 2 15 Growth of apparent stainless steel use: average : 9.7% Source: ISSF Stock Cycle Review 21 The Global Stainless Steel Market Regional and qualitative moves Leadership in consolidation Leadership in responsibility vs. society and environment 22

12 The Global Stainless Steel Market Regional and qualitative moves Leadership in consolidation Leadership in responsibility vs. society and environment 23 Chinese Stainless Crude Steel Production 1HY 211: 3 Sources = 3 Different Numbers Source: Heinz H. Pariser 24

13 The Global Stainless Steel Market Regional and qualitative moves Leadership in consolidation Leadership in responsibility vs. society and environment 25 The Global Stainless Steel Market Regional and qualitative moves Leadership in consolidation Leadership in responsibility vs. society and environment 26

14 Conclusion China without any doubt is today world champion in terms of stainless steel market size, production and export However there is still a long way to go for China to become the real world market LEADER in stainless steel and tough times appear ahead 27 Contact:: Peter Kaumanns Rue Colonel Bourg 12 B-14 Brussels, Belgium Phone Fax kaumanns@issf.org 28