Hard Alloys for Aerospace Present and Future

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1 Hard Alloys for Aerospace Present and Future Bill Bihlman President American Metal Market & SMR Conferences Chicago, IL Aerolytics LLC, October 2015

2 This presentation will address the following questions What are key considerations that drive design and material selection? What is historical growth and anticipated trajectory of hard alloys? What are emerging next generation family of hard alloys? What activities within supply chain affect future material development? What is anticipated impact of additive manufacturing? 2

3 Contents Design and Material Considerations Next Generation Hard Alloys Commercial Aerospace Supply Chain Additive Manufacturing Revolution 3

4 & Design 1Material Since 1920s, aircraft have transitioned from aluminum to predominately carbon fiber composites structures Evolution of Airframe Materials Junkers J-1 (1917) Beech Starship (1989) Eurofighter (2003) Aircraft aluminum was developed in Germany 1909, known as duralumin, containing copper/magnesium/manganese In 1917, German Junker military airplane was all duralumin Aluminum was standard for 80+ years now aircraft are moving to carbon fiber reinforced polymer (CFRP) composites Boeing 787 (2011) NOTES: Starship- first FAA certified allcomposite aircraft Eurofighter- first mil jet >50% CFRP B787- first air transpt >50% CFRP What precipitated this shift? Source: secondary 4

5 1 Material & Design In addition to cost, there are four fundamental drivers for aeromaterial selection Key Design Considerations Cost Strength vs. Weight Operational Efficiency Decreasing Importance Manufacturability Maintenance Source: Analysis 5

6 1 Material & Design Aerostructures engineers seek to optimize strength versus weight to help minimize fuel cost Aerostructure Strength vs Weight Primary challenge is to manage flight-induced stress within airframe, empennage and wing Weight is paramount as fuel can approach 40% of airline operating costs, depending on hedging, etc. Secondary considerations include fatigue, flutter, corrosion, damage tolerance, and crashworthiness Isotropic materials (e.g. titanium) are typical due to established materials database and software models American Airlines stated removing 1 lb per aircraft would save more than 11,000 gallons of fuel annually fleet wide Source: American Airlines, secondary 6

7 & Design 1Material Newer gas turbines have larger inlet diameters and greater heat-resistant materials to increase fuel efficiency Gas Turbine Operating Efficiency High-bypass turbofan Efficiency is influenced by propulsion (50%) and thermal efficiency (50%) Newer engines have larger inlet diameters allowing more air flow around engine core (i.e. bypass) These engines also have greater heat resistant materials to decrease fuel burn CFM LEAP engine emphasizes thermal efficiency, whereas P&W GTF focus is propulsion efficiency Source: secondary 7

8 Percent of total & Design 1Material Majority of hard alloys are found in engine greatest of which is superalloys Hard Alloy Percentage of Various Aerostructures/Parts* 100% 80% 60% Other Steel Alloy Superalloy Titanium 40% 20% 0% Aerostructure Components Engine Superalloys used extensively in engine (and aircraft APU) Titanium is ubiquitous, used in engine, aerostructure, and components Steel alloys are most common in landing gear (particularly narrow body aircraft) *by weight Source: ICF International 8

9 1 Material & Design Current annual consumption of raw material in aerospace is 1.5B pounds, led by aluminum 2014 Aerospace Raw Material Demand (1.5B lbs) OTHER Application Predominate Alloy Year introduced Composites 6.5% CAGR 95% aerostructure NA 1990s Titanium 4.5% CAGR 45% aerostructure 70% s Superalloy 2% CAGR 95% engine 65% IN s Steel * 60% aerostructure 25%/25% 15-5/300M 1960s Aluminum* 90% aerostructure 60% 7050/ s 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% * 10-yr CAGR effectively 0% Source: ICFI (LHS), interviews, analysis 9

10 Contents Design and Material Considerations Next Generation Hard Alloys Commercial Aerospace Supply Chain Additive Manufacturing Revolution 10

11 2Next Generation Hard alloys have evolved slowly over past several decades due to prohibitive cost and development cycle Developmental Considerations for Aerometallics Bold evolution of aerospace alloys lacking since 1960s government-funded programs However, there have been more alloys certified within past decade, than previous five decades preponderance are custom aluminium alloys Revolutionary new alloys cost over $10M and 8 to 10 years to certify and effectively market Metallurgical R&D efforts are directed towards reducing production costs and increasing yields Source: secondary 11

12 2Next Generation Most novel hard alloy development for aerostructures/ components is next generation stainless steel Hard Alloy Applications for Aerostructures and Components Aerostructure Titanium will increase due to compatible with carbon fiber reinforced polymer Titanium bonding with aluminum (to prevent galvanic corrosion) being studied Ongoing development for high strength steel by Carpenter and Aubert & Duval for high wear applications such as flap tracks Components High strength steel used extensively for landing gear for narrow body aircraft Key consideration is maintenance, requiring routine removal of cadmium and chromium plating High strength stainless steel are being evaluated to minimize refurbishment Source: secondary, interviews 12

13 2Next Generation In terms of gas turbine, titanium aluminide is primary hard alloy under ongoing development Hard Alloy Applications for Aeroengine Titanium Aluminide Titanium-aluminide (TiAl) used increasingly in engine hot section TiAl is strong as super alloys yet one-half weight Material difficult to produce and machine Additive manufacturing is facilitating development of TiAl blades with near net shapes All major engine OEMs are evaluating TiAL applications Source: secondary 13

14 Contents Design and Material Considerations Next Generation Hard Alloys Commercial Aerospace Supply Chain Additive Manufacturing Revolution 14

15 Orders 3Supply Chain Strong orders yield record seven years of backlog, enticing original equipment mfgs (OEMs) to increase production Commercial Aircraft Orders and Production Volume ( ) 3000 Orders 2000 Production 1000 Moving-average Production Production increase might strain current supply chain capacity Source: Deloitte 15

16 3Supply Chain Fundamental shift in OEM behavior has pushed design authority downstream within supply chain Key Supply Chain Adjustments Responsibilities Tier 3 Tier 2 Tier 1 OEMs Raw Mat l (Tier 4) Adjustments: 1) design authority shifting from OEM to Tier1/2 2) OEM supplier rationalization 3) greater supplier transparency and control OEMs still maintain core competence such as 777X wing, and engine hot section Source: interviews, analysis 16

17 3Supply Chain this is evidenced by extent of Boeing s strategic partners for 787, spanning entire globe 787 Global Partners An average aerospace project can use 3M parts from more than 30 countries and 550 suppliers - Rich Becks, Boeing Source: Boeing, Aerospace Mfg & Design Mag 17

18 3Supply Chain Machining of hard alloys is primary constraint due to move towards higher tolerances and monolithic structures Simplified Hard Alloy Supply Chain Raw Stock Melt CD Forge Heat Treat Machine Surface Treat Capacity: Final machining capacity is limited, thus placing greater emphasis on near net shapes of hard alloys Key: limited adequate Source: interviews 18

19 Contents Design and Material Considerations Next Generation Hard Alloys Commercial Aerospace Supply Chain Additive Manufacturing Revolution 19

20 Manufacturing 4Additive Every major OEM is exploring additive manufacturing Source: secondary 20

21 Manufacturing 4Additive Powder bed and wire feed additive manufacturing offer different advantages Two Predominate AM Technologies for Aerospace Powder Bed (Sintering) Involves growing layers via melting of powder metal developed 1980s for DARPA (Material: nickel and titanium) Wire Feed (Welding) Involves melting wire similar to welding to create molten pool to build linear layers (Material: titanium) Advantages: high near net, complex geometry Advantages: high deposition, economical Disadvantages: limited size, small batches, source material control Disadvantages: more machining required, residual stresses, voids/occlusions Mechanical properties are wrought equivalent principle concern is microstructure quality and process repeatability Source: secondary, interviews 21

22 Manufacturing 4Additive Accordingly AM must be substantiated, a process complicated by fact its combines material and fabrication Key Challenges Variation in types of AM equipment/process and lack of standardization* Limited understanding of acceptable variation for key manufacturing parameters Poor understanding of key failure mechanisms and material anomalies Lack of industry database/allowables* Lagging methodology for adequate NDI techniques Surface finish and repeatability * Daunting due to wide variation of processes Source: M. Gorelik PhD - FAA 22

23 Thank you for your attention - Aerolytics LLC - Aerospace Analytical Market Research & Consulting For more information: 23