Daily Iron Ore Index Report October 17, 2018

Transcription

1 2-Apr-18 9-Apr Apr Apr-18 3-Apr-18 7-May May May May-18 4-Jun Jun-18 2-Jul-18 9-Jul Jul-18 3-Jul-18 6-Aug Aug Aug-18 3-Sep-18 1-Sep Sep-18 1-Oct-18 8-Oct-18 1 IRON ORE SEABORNE INDEX (IOSI) CFR Qingdao, USD/dry tonne IRON ORE PORT STOCK INDEX (IOPI) FOT Qingdao (inc. 16% VAT), RMB/wet tonne CFR Qingdao Equivalent (exc. 16% VAT), USD/dry tonne ¹ Index Fe Content Price Change Change % MTD YTD² Low ² High ² Price Change Change % MTD YTD² Low ² High ² IOPI62 62% Fe Fines % % IOPI58 58% Fe Fines % % IOPI65 65% Fe Fines % % Index Fe Content Price Change Change % MTD YTD 3 Low 3 High 3 IOSI62 62% Fe Fines % IOSI65 65% Fe Fines % MARKET COMMENTARY PLATFORM TRADES AND TENDERS Despite a buoyant iron ore DCE Futures market, iron ore physical port stock quotes were relatively stable. Traders were happy to be active once again whilst steel mills upped their demands. PB fines at Tangshan ports trade around yuan/mt, with the price spread between Jimblebar Fines and SSF widening, driving demand for SSF. SMM believes that Iron ore prices may keep this momentum up until the implementation of production cuts for the heating season. Week Ending October 12, 218 China Mines Concentrate Composite Index RMB/WT IRON ORE DOMESTIC CONCENTRATE SPOT PRICE ASSESSMENTS AND COMPOSITE INDEX Week Ending October 12, 218 RMB/tonne (excluding tax) 4 Province Region Product Basis This week Change % Low ² High ² This week Change % Low ² High ² Hebei Hanxing 66% Fe Concentrate Dry 66.5% % Hebei Qian'an 65% Fe Concentrate Dry 78.% % Liaoning Anshan 65% Fe Concentrate Wet 545.% % Shandong Zibo 65% Fe Concentrate Dry 755.% % IRON ORE PORT INDEX, FOT QINGDAO (RMB/WT) This week Change % Low 5 High % USD/tonne (excluding tax) 4 ¹ Exchange rate applied: RMB/USD = ² Since March 1 ³ Since June 1 ⁴ Weekly exchange rate applied: RMB/USD Last 12 months IRON ORE SEABORNE INDEX, CFR QINGDAO () IOPI62 IOPI58 IOPI65 IOSI62 IOSI65 IRON ORE PORT STOCK INDEX MONTHLY, QUARTERLY AND YEAR-TO-DATE AVERAGES FOT Qingdao (inc. 16% VAT), RMB/wet tonne CFR Qingdao Equivalent (exc. 16% VAT), USD/dry tonne ¹ Index Fe Content June July August September MTD QTD YTD² June July August September MTD QTD YTD² IOPI62 62% Fe Fines IOPI58 58% Fe Fines IOPI65 65% Fe Fines IRON ORE SEABORNE INDEX MONTHLY, QUARTERLY AND YEAR-TO-DATE AVERAGES FREIGHT RATES CFR Qingdao, USD/dry tonne October 16, 218 FREIGHT RATES - DRY BULK US$/wet tonne Index Fe Content June July August September MTD QTD YTD 3 Route Designation Change Change % Low 5 High 5 IOSI62 62% Fe Fines W. Australia - Qingdao C % IOSI65 65% Fe Fines Tubarao - Qingdao C % Visit for full index price histories and archive of daily reports Page 1/5 October 17, 218

2 RMB/WT IRON ORE INDEX COMPARISONS CHINA DOMESTIC COMPOSITE MINES INDEX (RMB/Wet Tonne, including VAT) IOSI62 IOPI62 (equivalent) IOSI65 IOPI65 (equivalent) China Domestic Composite Mines Index 1% Fe 1% Alumina 1% Silica.1% Phosphorus Port Stock Index Product Differentials (RMB/wet tonne) Low Grade Fe Applicable range High Grade Fe 6-63% High Grade Fe 63-64% High Grade Fe 64-65% High Grade Fe % High Fe Grade Al <2.25% High Fe Grade Al % Low Fe Grade Al <2.25% Low Fe Grade Al % High Fe Grade Si <4% High Fe Grade Si 4-6.5% Low Fe Grade High Fe Grade.9%<P<.115% High Fe Grade.115%<P<.15% Low Fe Grade.9<P<.1% Price Change Diff to IOPI62 Roy Hill SIMEC Fines PB Fines Newman Fines MAC Fines Jimblebar Blended Fines Carajas Fines Brazilian SSF Brazilian Blend Fines RTX Fines Price Change Diff to IOPI58 SSF FMG Blended Fines Robe River Western Fines Atlas Fines Yandi IRON ORE BRAND SPOT PRICE ASSESMENTS IRON ORE INDEX NORMALISATION DIFFERENTIALS Value Change Port Stock Differentials to Qingdao Port (RMB/wet tonne) Seaborne Index Product Differentials (UDS/dry tonne) Applicable range Port Value Change Port Value Change Port Value Change Port Value Change Bayuquan -3.. Fangcheng -5.. Lanshan.. Qingdao.. Beilun 5.. Jiangyin -3.. Lianyungang.. Rizhao.. Caofeidian -2.. Jingtang -2.. Majishan.. Shekou.. Dalian -2.. Lanqiao.. Nantong -3.. Tianjin Page 2/5 October 17, 218 1% Fe 1% Alumina 1% Silica.1% Phosphorus High Grade Fe 6-63% High Grade Fe 63-64% High Grade Fe 64-65% High Grade Fe % High Fe Grade Al <2.25% High Fe Grade Al % High Fe Grade Si <4% High Fe Grade Si 4-6.5% High Fe Grade.9%<P<.115% High Fe Grade.115%<P<.15% SEABORNE INDEX () Price Change Diff to IOSI62 Roy Hill SIMEC Fines PB Fines Newman Fines MAC Fines Jimblebar Blended Fines Carajas Fines Brazilian SSF Brazilian Blend Fines RTX Fines Value Change

3 3-Apr-18 1-Apr Apr Apr-18 1-May-18 8-May May May May-18 5-Jun Jun Jun Jun-18 3-Jul-18 1-Jul Jul Jul Jul-18 7-Aug Aug Aug Aug-18 4-Sep Sep Sep Sep-18 2-Oct-18 9-Oct Oct-18 million mt RMB/tonne USD/tonne 2-Apr-18 9-Apr Apr Apr-18 3-Apr-18 7-May May May May-18 4-Jun Jun-18 2-Jul-18 9-Jul Jul-18 3-Jul-18 6-Aug Aug Aug-18 3-Sep-18 1-Sep Sep-18 1-Oct-18 8-Oct-18 1 % Spread to Benchmarks % Spread to Benchmarks IRON ORE INDEX PREMIUMS/DISCOUNTS SEABORNE INDEX () Fe Content Spread to IOPI62 % Spread to IOPI62 Fe Content Spread to IOSI62 % Spread to IOSI62 58% Fe Fines % 65% Fe Fines % 65% Fe Fines % 6% 6% 5% 5% 4% 4% 3% 3% 2% 2% 1% 1% % % -1% -1% -2% -2% -3% -3% -4% -4% IOPI65 % Spread to IOPI62 IOPI58 % Spread to IOPI62 IOSI65 % Spread to IOSI62 IRON ORE SEABORNE TO PORT STOCK SPREADS IOSI62 Spread to IOPI62 Equivalent IOSI65 Spread to IOPI65 Equivalent TOTAL IRON ORE INVENTORIES AT CHINA PORTS FUTURE TRADING FRONT MONTH CLOSING PRICE Dalian 3pm Close SGX Front Month 6pm (RHS) IRON ORE PORT INVENTORIES Week Ending October 12, 218 (million tonnes) Province This week Change % Low⁴ High⁴ Jingtang % Qingdao % Caofeidian % Tianjin % Rizhao % Total (35 Ports) % IRON ORE FUTURES CONTRACTS DCE SGX Closing Date 17 Oct 3pm close 17 Oct 6 pm Contract I191 Change Change % Nov'18 Change Change % Closing Price % % Vol traded (' lots) % % Open positions (' lots) % % Day Low % % Day High % % Page 3/5 October 17, 218

4 USD/mt million mt DRY BULK FREIGHT RATES TOTAL CHINA IRON ORE IMPORT VOLUMES C5 - W. Australia - Qingdao C3 - Tubarao - Qingdao Steel Spot Market Prices - China Steel Spot Market RMB/tonne Product 12/1/218 Change Change % ReBar HRB4 ɸ18mm 4, % Wirerod Q3 ɸ6.5mm 4, % HRC Q235/SS4 5.5mm*15*C 4, % CRC SPCC/ST12 1.mm*125*25 4, % Medium & Heavy Plate Q235B 2mm 4, % GI ST2Z 1.mm*1*C 5,225..% Billet Q235 15*15mm 3, % China Export Prices USD/tonne CHINESE STEEL EXPORT PRICES Product Specification Export tax (+)/Vate rebate (-) Change 12/1/218 Rebar BS B 12-25mm, + chrome -13% 575 Wire Rod SAE mm +chrome -9% 58 Hot-rolled coil SS4/Q mm -9% 57-5 Cold-rolled coil SPCC 1.mm -13% 61-5 Medium & Heavy plate A-level Shipe plate 12-25mm % 61 Galvanised ST2Z/SGCC 1.mm -13% Note: Calculation formula for converting export prices of rebar, cold-rolled steel and galvanizing into prices in China s spot market = FOB* exchange rate*1.16/( ); Calculation formula for converting export prices of wire rod and hot-rolled steel into prices in hina s spot market = FOB* exchange rate *1.16/( ); Calculation formula for converting export prices of mediumthick plate into prices in China s spot market = FOB* exchange rate CHINESE STEEL INVENTORIES Steel Inventories³ (unit: 1 tonnes) Product 12/1/218 28/9/218 Change Change % Rebar 4,429 4, % Wirerod 1,455 1, % Hot-rolled Coil 2,42 2, % Medium & Thick Plate 1,166 1, % Cold-rolled Coil 1,261 1, % Total 1,73 1, % ³ SM M statistics cover inventories of major steel products in China s major markets: hot-rolled steel inventories in 33 major cities; rebar and wire inventories in 35 major cities; cold-rolled steel and medium-thick plate inventories in 31 major cities. CHINESE STEEL MILL PROFITABILITY SMM Tracking of Steel Mill P&L - Rebar and Hot-rolled Coil (RMB/tonne) Category Price Change (WoW) Note MMi (Fe 62%), USD/mt exluding tax Mmi CFR Equivalent index for 12th October Coke 2,31-1 2nd grade met coke, Tangshan, incl. tax Steel Scrap 2,34 steel scrap (6mm) in Zhangjiagang, exl. tax Billet Cost 3,89 7 Q234, incl. tax Rebar cost - Blast furnace 3, calculated based on theoretical w eight, incl. tax Rebar profit - Blast furnace 1, based on Shanghai prices, incl. tax Hot-rolled coil cost - Blast furnace 3, based on actual w eight, incl. tax Hot-rolled coil proft - Blast furnace based on Shanghai prices, incl. tax Note: 1. Costs in the table are caluclated based on todays market prices and facout our management, sales, financial and depreciations fees. 2. The cost refers to average cost in the industry based on SM M 's survey of small, medium and large mills in China Page 4/5 October 17, 218

5 IRON ORE INDEX SPECIFICATIONS, COMPILATION RATIONALE AND DATA EXCLUSIONS 65% Fe Fines 62% Fe Fines 58% Fe Fines Fe % Alumina % Silica% Phosphorus % Sulphur % Moisture % Sizing Pricing Point Timing (Seaborne) Payment Terms Iron Ore Index Specifications (Port and Seaborne) Granular size below 1mm for at least 9% of cargo; maximum of 4% below 15 micron Qingdao Port (FOT and CFR respectively) Loading within 4 weeks, Delivery within 8 weeks L/C at sight Iron Ore Index Compilation Rationale and Data Exclusions MMi iron ore indices are compiled from data provided by companies that are part of the iron ore supply chain and involved in spot market transactions. The indices are calculated using detailed transaction-level data submitted to MMi by these companies. This data is normalised to the appropriate specifications and screened to remove outliers before volume-weighted average prices are calculated from the remaining core set of data. For more details on MMi's iron ore methodology please download the guide published on our website at: * Number of price submissions for iron ore indices that were excluded from index calculations today as they were anomalous and could not be verified Data Exclusions* 62% 58% 65% Port Index Seaborne index IRON ORE DOMESTIC CONCENTRATE INDEX CALCULATION METHODOLOGY The compilation method for price index generally refers to the compilation method of CPI price index and other price indices, breakdown the price data and calculate the average value according to a certain method, taking the vertical axis as the regional composite index (average of different grade index) and the horizontal axis as the grade composite index (average of different regional index), a total composite index for domestic ore can be output ultimately. The process system is also adopted in the calculation i.e. each sub-index can be obtained as well. AVERAGE IRON ORE SPECIFICATIONS APPLIED FOR BRAND PRICE ASSESSMENTS PORT STOCK BRANDS SPECIFICATIONS APPLIED FOR 62% BRAND ASSESSMENTS Roy Hill 61.% 2.2% 4.5%.55% 8.% SIMEC Fines 6.% 2.3% 6.3%.6% 6.% PB Fines 61.69% 2.33% 3.57%.1% 9.25% Newman Fines 62.4% 2.36% 4.22%.7% 7.71% MAC Fines 6.96% 2.27% 4.61%.1% 7.33% Jimblebar Blended Fines 61.39% 2.8% 4.22%.11% 6.79% Carajas Fines 64.8% 1.42% 1.57%.7% 8.4% Brazilian SSF 62.% 1.% 6.5%.4% 6.% Brazilian Blend Fines 62.74% 1.46% 4.99%.2% 8.79% RTX Fines 61.% 3.1% 4.5%.135% 7.5% SPECIFICATIONS APPLIED FOR 58% BRAND ASSESSMENTS SSF 56.49% 3.3% 6.32%.5% 9.25% FMG Blended Fines 58.36% 2.79% 5.9%.7% 7.13% Robe River 56.74% 3.14% 5.5%.3% 8.58% Western Fines 57.72% 2.86% 7.37%.6% 7.41% Atlas Fines 56.59% 2.55% 7.14%.8% 8.46% Yandi 57.12% 1.35% 6.33%.4% 9.11% SEABORNE BRANDS SPECIFICATIONS APPLIED FOR 62% BRAND ASSESSMENTS Roy Hill 6.7% 2.3% 4.9%.55% 8.% SIMEC Fines 6.% 2.3% 6.3%.6% 6.% PB Fines 62% 62.% 2.6% 4.3%.9% 1.% Newman Fines 62.8% 2.2% 4.3%.8% 6.4% MAC Fines 61.% 2.7% 4.7%.11% 9.3% Jimblebar Blended Fines 61.79% 2.67% 4.8%.115% 7.16% Carajas Fines 65.1% 1.5% 1.7%.8% 8.5% Brazilian SSF 62.% 1.% 6.5%.4% 6.% Brazilian Blend Fines 62.5% 1.5% 5.%.7% 7.% RTX Fines 61.% 3.1% 4.5%.135% 7.5% FOT Qingdao (RMB/wet tonne) PORT STOCK INDICES CFR Qingdao Equivalent (USD/dry tonne) IOPI62 IRCNQ1 IRCNQ4 IOPI58 IRCNQ2 IRCNQ5 IOPI65 IRCNQ3 IRCNQ6 BLOOMBERG TICKERS CONTACT US MMI Singapore Office Details: Level 28, Manulife Tower, 8 Cross Street Singapore. Tel: E: jarek@mmiprices.com SMM Singapore Office Details: Level 28, Manulife Tower, 8 Cross Street Singapore. Tel: E: service.en@smm.cn SMM Shanghai Office Details: 9th FL, Building 9, Lujiazui Software Park, No.2, Lane 91, Pudong, Shanghai Tel: E: service.en@smm.cn This information has been prepared by Metals Market Index ("MMi"). Use of the information presented here is at your sole risk, and any content, material and/or data presented or otherwise obtained through your use of the information in this document is at your own discretion and risk and you will be solely responsible for any damage to you personally or your company or organisation or business associates whatsoever which in anyway results from the use, reliance or application of such content material and/or information. Certain data has been obtained from various sources and any copyright existing in such data shall remain the property of the source. Except for the foregoing, MMi retains all copyright within this document. The copying or redistribution of any part of this document without the express written authority of MMi is forbidden. Page 5/5 October 17, 218