Presentation to the 14th International Stainless and Special Steel Summit by John Rowe Secretary-General International Stainless Steel Forum

Transcription

1 Presentation to the 14th International Stainless and Special Steel Summit by John Rowe Secretary-General International Stainless Steel Forum 07 October 2015 Vienna 1

2 ISSF Antitrust Policy The International Stainless Steel Forum binds itself to adhere to the strictest interpretation of the Anti-Trust Laws and Regulations. This presentation includes my own interpretation of the current market and some observations on the sustainability of stainless steel. You are free to draw your own conclusions about these matters and you are encouraged to study the Annual Reports published by producing companies and comments by analysts and the trade press. 2

3 What is the International Stainless Steel Forum? The International Stainless Steel Forum is a non profit association, based in Brussels, which represents the interests of the producers of stainless steel towards members, the general public, consumers and regulators. The association has 65 members from every major producing country and currently represents approximately 90% of the world s production of stainless steel. 3

4 The Growth Rate of Stainless Steel Stainless Steel is widely used in many aspects of our daily lives from household appliances to hygienic applications, such as hospitals and the catering industry, to the automobile industry and to heavy industrial plants and equipment. The material was invented just over 100 years ago and has grown rapidly, particularly since the turn of the century, with total production expected to reach 42 million tons this year. The rate of growth is estimated at approximately 1.5 times GDP growth. 4

5 Ifo* World Economic Climate August 2015 *Institute for Economic Research 5

6 OECD Industrial Production Index [2010=000]

7 Selected Global Indices Oxford Economic Forecasting September 2015 [2010=100] Q1 2014Q1 2013Q1 2012Q1 2011Q1 2010Q1 2009Q1 2008Q1 2007Q1 2006Q1 2005Q1 Manufacturing Capital goods Consumer durables Construction 7

8 Ifo Asia Economic Climate August

9 OECD Asia Industrial Production Index [2010=100] Japan Korea India 9

10 China Purchasing Managers Index, Manufacturing China PMI 10

11 Stainless Steel Melt Shop Production [mill t] e 2015e EuroAfrica Americas Asia w/o China China CEE 11

12 World: Stainless Steel Melt Shop Production by Grade Category [%] e 2014 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 CrNi CrMn Cr others 12

13 Stainless Steel Melt Shop Production by Grade Category and Region [%] e Euro/Africa Americas Asia World CrNi CrMn Cr others 13

14 Stainless Steel Consumption 10,000,000 9,000, % 0.1% 3.4% 8,000,000 7,000,000 6,000,000 Forecast 5,000,000 4,000,000 3,000,000 2,000,000 1,000,000 [t] 0 Q4 Q3 Q Q1 Q4 Q3 Q Q1 Q4 Q3 Q Q1 Q4 Q3 Q Q1 Q4 Q3 Q Q1 Q4 Q3 Q Q1 Q4 Q3 Q Q1 Long products HR flat CR flat 14

15 Apparent Consumption Change Year on Year [%] World 15.0% 7.4% 7.4% 8.7% 0.4% 1.8% 0.1% 3.4% 3.5% 3.5% 3.4% -1.9% CR HR LP All 15

16 Apparent Consumption Change Year on Year [%] Comparison Leading Analyst compared with ISSF Leading ISSF Leading ISSF Leading ISSF Analyst Analyst Analyst Euro/Africa 7.5% 7.8% -5.9% -2.1% 7.0% 3.0% Americas 6.2% 7.5% -5.2% -1.9% 6.6% 2.2% Asia excl. China 8.9% 10.7% -5.7% -1.3% 8.0% 4.9% China 10.9% 8.4% 1.3% 2.2% 3.4% 3.1% World 8.6% 8.7% -2.5% 0.1% 5.6% 3.4% 16

17 Stainless Steel Stocks Flat Products* [000t] 1, % 1,400 90% 80% 1,200 70% 1,000 60% % % 30% % % 0 0% Hot rolled Cold rolled CR Flat Stocks as % of CR AC 17

18 Stainless Steel vs. Competing Materials Compound Annual Growth Rate % Stainless steel 5.44 Carbon Steel 2.46 Aluminum 3.71 Zinc 2.35 Copper 2.80 Lead

19 Stainless Steel Producers Financial Results (x Euro millions) * 589* * HY HY Company A Company B Company C* Source: Published Financial Results *EBITDA 19

20 Stainless Steel safe, recyclable, sustainable I would like to add few words about the sustainability of stainless steel; its safety for use in hygienic applications; its advantages in the architectural, building and construction sectors; and its growing suitability for automotive applications. 20

21 Stainless Steel is safe for use with food The Stainless Steel industry has complete confidence that its materials are safe for all hygienic applications, including all food applications. To provide independent assurance of this confidence, the ISSF and its partners engaged the Royal KTH University in Stockholm to investigate the safety of stainless steel for use with food. The KTH Report, which is available on the International Stainless Steel Forum website, demonstrates that stainless steels conform in all respects with the Council of Europe Protocol on food safety standards. 21

22 Stainless Steel in Buildings The Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design (LEED) initiative, version 4, issued in the United States, requires a minimum design life of 60 years for all new buildings. This is important for stainless steel, because its strength and resistance to corrosion give it a longer useful life. Materials with a life span of less than 60 years will be required to adjust their life cycles according to their ratio to 60 years, to reflect the need for their replacement before the end of the design life of the building. Correctly specified stainless steel will not require replacement within the design life cycle of a building, thereby providing property developers with a significant advantage. 22

23 Stainless Steel Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) Consumer groups are increasingly turning to Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) data when making their decisions about which materials to use. Together with our partners, Eurofer and the Japanese Stainless Steel Association, we have this year initiated an LCA project covering Europe and Japan. Next year we will add the rest of Asia and in 2017 North, Central and South America, so that by the end of 2017 we will have a complete LCA report covering the whole world. To ensure the independent integrity of this work, we have engaged a leading firm of environmental consultants to manage the project on our behalf. 23

24 Stainless Steel is completely recyclable Stainless steel is capable of being completely recycled. Material recovered at the end of the useful life of any application, whether it is a household appliance, parts of a motor vehicle or industrial plant and equipment can be fully recovered in the form of scrap metal and re-melted in a stainless steel plant to produce new material. We commissioned Yale University to make an independent study of the recyclability of stainless steel. Their study has been repeated at 5 yearly intervals since 2000 and will be repeated next year. Yale found that more than 70% of stainless steel is actually recycled. The balance up to 100% either remains in use, or is withheld in scrap-yards or has been consigned to land-fill. 24

25 Life cycle of stainless steel in main applications sectors End Use Sector Average lifetime (in years) To landfill total Collected for recycling as stainless steel as carbon steel Building & Infrastructure 60 8% 92% 95% 5% Transportation (pass. cars) Transportation (others) % 87% 85% 15% Industrial Machinery 25 8% 92% 95% 5% Household Appliances & Electronics 15 30% 70% 95% 5% Metal Goods 15 40% 60% 80% 20% Source: Yale University/ISSF Stainless Steel Project,

26 Distribution of CO 2 emissions Total CO2 emissions: 2.90 ton CO2/ ton SS Source: 2013 Data provided by ISSF,

27 Stainless Steel Applications some examples The following slides illustrate some areas in which stainless steel is providing safe, long-life, aesthetically pleasing and hygienic solutions for our daily lives. 27

28 The roof of the Chrysler Building in New York was fabricated out of Enduro KA 2 austenitic stainless steel, produced by Krupp in Germany. The roof was installed in 1929/30 and has only been manually cleaned twice in 1961 and An inspection in 1995 by Catherine Houska on behalf of the Nickel Institute revealed no significant signs of corrosion, despite the coastal environment. Picture courtesy of Catherine Houska

29 Len Lye Museum in New Plymouth, New Zealand, 2015, using 316L

30 St. Anthony's College, Oxford The new Faculty for Middle Eastern Studies at St. Anthony s College, designed by award winning architect, Zaha Hadid.

31 Hong Kong Zhuhai Macao Bridge, 2015

32 Tunnel Refurbishment in the Aosta Valley, Italy, using 430.

33 Tokyo s Haneda Airport Runway Extension into the sea, using SUS312L

34 Water Treatment plant in Poland, using , ,

35 Over head Electrification Pylons in South Africa, using 3CR12

36 Automotive parts Exhaust Manifold(G) Exhaust Gas Recirculation Cooler (D,G) Fuel Filler Pipe (G) Turbo Charger(D,G) Urea Catalytic Converters (D) Exhaust Heat Recovery(G) 36

37 Stainless Steel Sustainable and serving us every day... 37

38 Thank you for your attention! 38