MMi Dashboard. Iron Ore Price Indices. Iron Ore Port Stock (FOT Qingdao) IOPI65 65% Fe Fines RMB/t. February 27th, 2019

Transcription

1 MMi Dashboard Iron Ore Price Indices Iron Ore Port Stock (FOT Qingdao) IOPI62 62% Fe Fines RMB/t % Iron Ore Seaborne (CFR Qingdao) IOSI62 62% Fe Fines USD/dmt DCE Iron Ore 62% Fines I195 (May) RMB/t % % Iron Ore Port Stock (FOT Qingdao) IOPI65 65% Fe Fines RMB/t % Iron Ore Seaborne (CFR Qingdao) IOSI65 65% Fe Fines USD/dmt % Exchange Traded Contracts SGX Iron Ore (CFR Qingdao) 62% Fe Fines Mar'19 USD/dmt % Iron Port Stock (FOT Qingdao) IOPI58 58% Fe Fines RMB/t % Iron Ore Port Stock (FOT Qingdao) IOPLI 62.5% Fe Lump RMB/t SHFE Rebar RB195 (May) RMB/t % % (3pm close) (6pm Print) (3pm close) Freight Rates Steel Price C3, Tubarao - Qingdao USD/t February 26th, % C5, W. Australia - Qingdao USD/t February 26th, % Steel Rebar (China Domestic) RMB/t % Iron Ore Inventory at Chinese Ports (35) million tonnes % Inventory Levels Steel Inventory in China million tonnes % Steel Price Steel HRC (China Domestic) RMB/t % Page 1/6

2 2-Apr Apr-18 2-May May Jun-18 1-Jul Jul Aug-18 3-Aug Sep O ct O ct Nov Nov Dec Jan Jan Feb Jun Jun Jul Jul-18 1-Aug Aug-18 7-Sep Sep-18 5-Oct O ct-18 2-Nov-18 3-Nov Dec Jan Jan-19 8-Feb Feb-19 IRON ORE PORT STOCK INDEX (IOPI) FOT Qingdao (inc. 16% VAT), RMB/wet tonne CFR Qingdao Equivalent (exc. 16% VAT), USD/dry tonne ¹ Index Fe Content Price Change Change % MTD YTD Low ² High ² Price Change Change % MTD YTD Low ² High ² IOPI62 62% Fe Fines % % IOPI58 58% Fe Fines % % IOPI65 65% Fe Fines % % IRON ORE SEABORNE INDEX (IOSI) CFR Qingdao, USD/dry tonne Index Fe Content Price Change Change % MTD YTD Low 3 High 3 IOSI62 62% Fe Fines % IOSI65 65% Fe Fines % MARKET COMMENTARY The majority of traders maintained their current physical iron ore port stock quotes though felt pressure from the mills. Total transactions were thus low today. According to SMM, downstream demand for steel is building very slowly and therefore weather is likely to be stricter as the National People's Congress and the Chinese Political Consultative Conference (NPC&CPPCC) approach and therefore mills are cautious in regards to buying iron ore. The seaborne market has sparked into life, though most trades are being done on a floating basis as uncertainty on future price direction persist. Week Ending F ebruary 22nd, 219 FOT Qingdao (inc. 16% VAT), RMB/wet tonne IRON ORE PORT LUMP INDEX (IOPLI) Index Fe Content Price W-o-W Change % MTD YTD Low 3 High 3 Price W-oW Change % MTD YTD Low 3 High 3 IOPLI % Fe Lump % % IRON ORE DOMESTIC CONCENTRATE SPOT PRICE ASSESSMENTS AND COMPOSITE INDEX RMB/tonne (excluding tax) 4 IRON ORE PORT INDEX, FOT QINGDAO (RMB/WT) CFR Qingdao Equivalent (exc. 16% VAT), USD/dry tonne ¹ USD/tonne (excluding tax) 4 Province Region Product Basis This week Change % Low ² High ² This week Change % Low ² High ² Hebei Hanxing 66% Fe Concentrate Dry % % Hebei Qian'an 65% Fe Concentrate Dry 775.% % Liaoning Anshan 65% Fe Concentrate Wet % % Shandong Zibo 65% Fe Concentrate Dry % % China Mines Concentrate Composite Index RMB/WT This week Change % Low 5 High % ¹ Exchange rate applied: RMB/USD = ² Since March 1 ³ Since June 1 ⁴ Weekly exchange rate applied: RMB/USD Last 12 months IRON ORE SEABORNE INDEX, CFR QINGDAO (USD/DMT) IOPI62 IOPI58 IO PI65 IO SI62 IOSI65 IRON ORE PORT STOCK INDEX MONTHLY, QUARTERLY AND YEAR-TO-DATE AVERAGES FOT Qingdao (inc. 16% VAT), RMB/wet tonne CFR Qingdao Equivalent (exc. 16% VAT), USD/dry tonne ¹ Index Fe Content October NovemberDecember January MTD QTD YTD October NovemberDecember January MTD QTD YTD IOPI62 62% Fe Fines IOPI58 58% Fe Fines IOPI65 65% Fe Fines IRON ORE SEABORNE INDEX MONTHLY, QUARTERLY AND YEAR-TO-DATE AVERAGES CFR Qingdao, USD/dry tonne Index Fe Content October November December January MTD QTD YTD IOSI62 62% Fe Fines IOSI65 65% Fe Fines FREIGHT RATES February 26th, 219 FREIGHT RATES - DRY BULK US$/wet tonne Route Designation Change Change % Low 5 High 5 W. Australia - Qingdao C % Tubarao - Qingdao C % Week Ending F ebruary 22nd, 219 IRON ORE PORT LUMP INDEX MONTHLY, QUARTERLY AND YEAR-TO-DATE AVERAGES FOT Qingdao (inc. 16% VAT), RMB/wet tonne Index Fe Content October November December January MTD QTD YTD October November December January MTD QTD YTD IOPLI % Fe Lump IRON ORE INDEX PREMIUMS/DISCOUNTS CFR Qingdao Equivalent (exc. 16% VAT), USD/dry tonne ¹ PORT STOCK INDEX (RMB/WT) SEABORNE INDEX (USD/DMT) Fe Content Spread to IOPI62 % Spread to IOPI62 Fe Content Spread to IOSI62 % Spread to IOSI62 58% Fe Fines 65% Fe Fines % % 65% Fe Fines % Page 2/6

3 8-Jun Jun Jun Jun-18 6-Jul Jul-18 2-Jul Jul-18 3-Aug-18 1-Aug Aug Aug Aug-18 7-Sep Sep Sep-18 5-Oct Oct O ct O ct-18 2-Nov-18 9-Nov Nov-18 3-Nov-18 7-Dec Dec Dec-18 4-Jan Jan Jan Jan-19 1-Feb-19 8-Feb Feb Feb-19 USD/DMT RMB/WT IRON ORE INDEX COMPARISONS CHINA DOMESTIC COMPOSITE MINES INDEX (RMB/Wet Tonne, including VAT) IOSI62 IOPI62 (equivalent) IOSI65 IOPI65 (equivalent) China Domestic Composite Mines Index IRON ORE BRAND SPOT PRICE ASSESMENTS PORT STOCK INDEX (RMB/WT) Price Change Diff to IOPI62 Roy Hill SIMEC Fines PB Fines Newman Fines MAC Fines Jimblebar Blended Fines Carajas Fines Brazilian SSF Brazilian Blend Fines RTX Fines PORT STOCK INDEX (RMB/WT) Price Change Diff to IOPI58 SSF FMG Blended Fines Robe River Western Fines Atlas Fines Yandi SEABORNE INDEX (USD/DMT) Price Change Diff to IOSI62 Roy Hill SIMEC Fines PB Fines Newman Fines MAC Fines Jimblebar Blended Fines Carajas Fines Brazilian SSF Brazilian Blend Fines RTX Fines % Fe 1% Alumina 1% Silica.1% Phosphorus Port Stock Index Product Differentials (RMB/wet tonne) High Fe Grade Si <4% High Fe Grade Si 4-6.5% Low Fe Grade Applicable range High Grade Fe 6-63% High Grade Fe 63-64% High Grade Fe 64-65% High Grade Fe % Low Grade Fe High Fe Grade Al <2.25% High Fe Grade Al % Low Fe Grade Al <2.25% Low Fe Grade Al % High Fe Grade.9%<P<.115% High Fe Grade.115%<P<.15% Low Fe Grade.9<P<.1% IRON ORE INDEX NORMALISATION DIFFERENTIALS Value Change % Fe 1% Alumina 1% Silica.1% Phosphorus Seaborne Index Product Differentials (UDS/dry tonne) Applicable range High Grade Fe 6-63% High Grade Fe 63-64% High Grade Fe 64-65% High Grade Fe % High Fe Grade Al <2.25% High Fe Grade Al % High Fe Grade Si <4% High Fe Grade Si 4-6.5% Port Stock Price Differentials to Qingdao Port for PB Fines (RMB/wet tonne) High Fe Grade.9%<P<.115% High Fe Grade.115%<P<.15% Value Change Port Value Change Port Value Change Port Value Change Port Value Change Bayuquan Fangcheng -5.. Lanshan.. Qingdao.. Beilun 5.. Jiangyin Lianyungang.. Rizhao.. Caofeidian Jingtang.. Majishan.. Shekou.. Dalian Lanqiao Nantong Tianjin Page 3/6

4 USD/mt million mt 5-Apr-18 2-Apr-18 5-May-18 2-May-18 4-Jun Jun-18 4-Jul Jul-18 3-Aug Aug-18 2-Sep Sep-18 2-Oct Oct-18 1-Nov-18 1-Dec Dec Dec Jan-19 3-Jan Feb-19 million mt RMB/tonne USD/tonne 8-Jun Jun Jun Jun-18 6-Jul Jul-18 2-Jul Jul-18 3-Aug-18 1-Aug Aug Aug Aug-18 7-Sep Sep Sep-18 5-Oct O ct O ct O ct-18 2-Nov-18 9-Nov Nov-18 3-Nov-18 7-Dec Dec Dec-18 4-Jan Jan Jan Jan-19 1-Feb-19 8-Feb Feb Feb-19 4-Jun Jun Jun-18 2-Jul-18 9-Jul Jul-18 3-Jul-18 6-Aug Aug-18 2-Aug Aug-18 3-Sep-18 1-Sep Sep Sep-18 1-Oct-18 8-Oct O ct Oct Oct-18 5-Nov Nov Nov Nov-18 3-Dec-18 1-Dec Dec Dec Dec-18 7-Jan Jan Jan Jan-19 4-Feb Feb Feb-19 RMB/DMTU USD/DMT 2-Apr Apr-18 2-May May Jun-18 1-Jul Jul Aug-18 3-Aug Sep O ct O ct Nov Nov Dec Jan Jan Feb-19 4-Jun Jun Jun-18 2-Jul-18 9-Jul Jul-18 3-Jul-18 6-Aug Aug-18 2-Aug Aug-18 3-Sep-18 1-Sep Sep Sep-18 1-Oct-18 8-Oct O ct O ct O ct-18 5-Nov Nov Nov Nov-18 3-Dec-18 1-Dec Dec Dec Dec-18 7-Jan Jan Jan Jan-19 4-Feb Feb Feb-19 % Spread to Benchmarks % Spread to Benchmarks IRON ORE INDEX PREMIUMS/DISCOUNTS 6% 6% 5% 5% 4% 4% 3% 3% 2% 2% 1% 1% % % -1% -1% -2% -2% -3% -3% -4% -4% IOPI65 % Spread to IOPI62 IOPI58 % Spread to IOPI62 IOSI65 % Spread to IOSI62 WEEKLY IRON ORE PORT STOCK LUMP PREMIUM (62.5% FE LUMP 62% FE FINES) IRON ORE SEABORNE TO PORT STOCK PRICE SPREADS Lump 62.5% Fe Premium RMB/dmtu IOSI65 Spread to IOPI65 Equivalent IOSI62 Spread to IOPI62 Equivalent TOTAL IRON ORE INVENTORIES AT CHINA PORTS FUTURE TRADING FRONT MONTH CLOSING PRICE Dalian 3pm Close SGX Front Month 6pm (RHS) IRON ORE PORT INVENTORIES (million tonnes) Province This week Change % Low⁴ High⁴ Jingtang % Qingdao % Caofeidian % Tianjin % Rizhao % Total (35 Ports) % DRY BULK F REIGHT RATES 12 1 IRON ORE FUTURES CONTRACTS DCE SGX Closing Date 27th Feb 3pm close 27th Feb 6 pm Contract I195 Change Change % Mar'19 Change Change % Closing Price % % Vol traded (' lots) % % Open positions (' lots) % % Day Low % % Day High % % TOTAL CHINA IRON ORE IMPORT VOLUMES C5 - W. Australia - Qingdao C3 - Tubarao - Qingdao Page 4/6

5 million mt RMB/tonne STEEL SPOT MARKET PRICES CHINA Steel Spot Market RMB/tonne Product 22/2/219 Change Change % ReBar HRB4 ɸ18mm 3, % Wirerod Q3 ɸ6.5mm 3, % HRC Q235/SS4 5.5mm*15*C 3, % CRC SPCC/ST12 1.mm*125*25 4, % Medium & Heavy Plate Q235B 2mm 3,966..% GI ST2Z 1.mm*1*C 4, % Billet Q235 15*15mm 3, % CHINESE STEEL EXPORT PRICES CHINESE STEEL MILL PROFITABILITY China Export Prices USD/tonne Product Specification Export tax (+)/Vate rebate (-) Change 22/2/219 Rebar BS B 12-25mm, + chrome -13% 525 Wire Rod SAE mm +chrome -9% 535 Hot-rolled coil SS4/Q mm -9% 525 Cold-rolled coil SPCC 1.mm -13% 565 Medium & Heavy plate A-level Shipe plate 12-25mm % 53 Galvanised ST2Z/SGCC 1.mm -13% 58 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, Note: Calculation formula for converting export prices of rebar, cold-rolled steel and galvanizing into prices in China s spot market = FOB* exchange rate*1.16/( ); Calculation formula for converting export prices of wire rod and hot-rolled steel into prices in hina s spot market = FOB* exchange rate *1.16/( ); Calculation formula for converting export prices of mediumthick plate into prices in China s spot market = FOB* exchange rate CHINESE STEEL MILL PROFITABILITY Rebar Profit for BOF Mill HRC Profit for BOF Mill SMM Tracking of Steel Mill P&L - Rebar and Hot-rolled Coil (RMB/tonne) Category Price Change (WoW) Note MMi (Fe 62%), USD/mt exluding tax Mmi CFR Equivalent index for 1st Feb Coke 2,7 1 2nd grade met coke, Tangshan, incl. tax Steel Scrap 2,21 steel scrap (6mm) in Zhangjiagang, exl. tax Billet Cost 3,25 8 Q234, incl. tax Rebar cost - Blast furnace 3,279 7 calculated based on theoretical w eight, incl. tax Rebar profit - Blast furnace based on Shanghai prices, incl. tax Hot-rolled coil cost - Blast furnace 3,35 8 based on actual w eight, incl. tax Hot-rolled coil proft - Blast furnace based on Shanghai prices, incl. tax Note: 1. Costs in the table are caluclated based on todays market prices and facout our management, sales, financial and depreciations fees. 2. The cost refers to average cost in the industry based on SM M 's survey of small, medium and large mills in China CHINESE STEEL INVENTORIES Total Social Steel Inventory Total Steel Inventory at Steel Mills Steel Inventories³ (unit: 1 tonnes) Product 22/2/219 15/2/219 Change Change % Rebar 9,634 8,34 1, % Wirerod 3,52 2, % Hot-rolled Coil 2,725 2, % Medium & Thick Plate 1,351 1, % Cold-rolled Coil 1,21 1, % Total 17,964 16,151 1, % ³ SM M statistics cover inventories of major steel products in China s major markets: hot-rolled steel inventories in 33 major cities; rebar and wire inventories in 35 major cities; cold-rolled steel and medium-thick plate inventories in 31 major cities. Page 5/6

6 IRON ORE INDEX SPECIFICATIONS, COMPILATION RATIONALE AND DATA EXCLUSIONS 65% Fe Fines 62% Fe Fines 58% Fe Fines 62.5% Fe Lump Fe % Alumina % Silica% Phosphorus % Sulphur % Moisture % Sizing Pricing Point Timing (Seaborne) Payment Terms Iron Ore Index Specifications (Port and Seaborne) Granular size below 1mm for at least 9% of cargo; maximum of 4% below 15 micron Qingdao Port (FOT and CFR respectively) Loading within 4 weeks, Delivery within 8 weeks L/C at sight Size below 6.3mm max 15% Size above 31.15mm max 25% FOT Qingdao Port Delivery within 2 weeks L/C at sight or CAD IRON ORE DOMESTIC CONCENTRATE INDEX CALCULATION METHODOLOGY Iron Ore Index Compilation Rationale and Data Exclusions MMi iron ore indices are compiled from data provided by companies that are part of the iron ore supply chain and involved in spot market transactions. The indices are calculated using detailed transaction-level data submitted to MMi by these companies. This data is normalised to the appropriate specifications and screened to remove outliers before volume-weighted average prices are calculated from the remaining core set of data. For more details on MMi's iron ore methodology please download the guide published on our website at: 62% 58% 65% Port Index Seaborne index Lump Index 62.5 Data Exclusions* * Number of price submissions for iron ore indices that were excluded from index calculations today as they were anomalous and could not be verified The compilation method for price index generally refers to the compilation method of CPI price index and other price indices, breakdown the price data and calculate the average value according to a certain method, taking the vertical axis as the regional composite index (average of different grade index) and the horizontal axis as the grade composite index (average of different regional index), a total composite index for domestic ore can be output ultimately. The process system is also adopted in the calculation i.e. each sub-index can be obtained as well. AVERAGE IRON ORE SPECIFICATIONS APPLIED FOR BRAND PRICE ASSESSMENTS PORT STOCK BRANDS Specifications applied for 62% brand assessments Fe Alumina Silica Phos Moisture Roy Hill 6.76% 2.35% 4.31%.57% 8.58% SIMEC Fines 6.% 2.3% 6.3%.6% 6.% PB Fines 61.65% 2.35% 3.62%.11% 9.3% Newman Fines 63.1% 2.8% 3.87%.88% 7.37% MAC Fines 6.77% 2.34% 4.93%.87% 7.% Jimblebar Blended Fines 61.% 3.6% 4.28%.12% 7.6% Carajas Fines 65.45% 1.22% 1.54%.66% 8.12% Brazilian SSF 62.% 1.% 6.5%.4% 6.% Brazilian Blend Fines 62.55% 1.57% 4.86%.71% 8.49% RTX Fines 61.% 3.1% 4.5%.135% 7.5% Specifications applied for 58% brand assessments Fe Alumina Silica Phos Moisture SSF 56.61% 3.18% 6.21%.53% 8.99% FMG Blended Fines 58.15% 2.62% 5.37%.59% 7.67% Robe River 56.64% 2.91% 5.58%.35% 9.29% Western Fines 58.% 3.8% 7.84%.7% 7.52% Atlas Fines 56.59% 2.55% 7.14%.8% 8.46% Yandi 57.8% 1.41% 6.58%.32% 8.71% SEABORNE BRANDS Specifications applied for 62% brand assessments Fe Alumina Silica Phos Moisture Roy Hill 6.7% 2.3% 4.9%.55% 8.% SIMEC Fines 6.% 2.3% 6.3%.6% 6.% PB Fines 62% 62.% 2.6% 4.3%.9% 1.% Newman Fines 62.8% 2.2% 4.3%.8% 6.4% MAC Fines 61.% 2.7% 4.7%.11% 9.3% Jimblebar Blended Fines 61.79% 2.67% 4.8%.115% 7.16% Carajas Fines 65.1% 1.5% 1.7%.8% 8.5% Brazilian SSF 62.% 1.% 6.5%.4% 6.% Brazilian Blend Fines 62.5% 1.5% 5.%.7% 7.% RTX Fines 61.% 3.1% 4.5%.135% 7.5% IOPI62 IOPI58 IOPI65 BLOOMBERG TICKERS PORT STOCK INDICES FOT Qingdao (RMB/wet tonne) CFR Qingdao Equivalent (USD/dry tonne) IRCNQ1 IRCNQ4 IRCNQ2 IRCNQ5 IRCNQ3 IRCNQ6 CONTACT US MMI Singapore Office Details: Level 28, Manulife Tower, 8 Cross Street Singapore. Tel: E: jarek@mmiprices.com SMM Singapore Office Details: Level 28, Manulife Tower, 8 Cross Street Singapore. Tel: E: service.en@smm.cn SMM Shanghai Office Details: 9th FL, Building 9, Lujiazui Software Park, No.2, Lane 91, Pudong, Shanghai Tel: E: service.en@smm.cn Visit for full index price histories and archive of daily reports This information has been prepared by Metals Market Index ("MMi"). Use of the information presented here is at your sole risk, and any content, material and/or data presented or otherwise obtained through your use of the information in this document is at your own discretion and risk and you will be solely responsible for any damage to you personally or your company or organisation or business associates whatsoever which in anyway results from the use, reliance or application of such content material and/or information. Certain data has been obtained from various sources and any copyright existing in such data shall remain the property of the source. Except for the foregoing, MMi retains all copyright within this document. The copying or redistribution of any part of this document without the express written authority of MMi is forbidden. Page 6/6