Modelling the global extraction, supply price and depletion of the extractable resources using the COBALT Model

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1 Modelling the global extraction, supply price and depletion of the extractable using the COBALT Model Deniz Koca, Assistant Prof., Lund University, Centre for Environmental and Climate Research Harald Sverdrup, Prof., University of Iceland, Department of Industrial Engineering Vala Ragnarsdottir, Prof., University of Iceland, Institute of Earth Sciences

2 About us Initiate, coordinate & facilitate education and research activities on Systems Science & Sustainability Science Expertise in: facilitating Group Modelling workshops modelling of complex dynamic systems (i.e. sustainable food systems, climate change impacts and adaptions, natural resource management, international water conflict management, dynamic global vegetation, Swedish health system, Icelandic banking system, etc.) teaching Systems Analysis & System Dynamics courses at undergraduate, graduate and postgraduate levels at university and public / private sector

3 Today s layout COBALT submodule in the WORLD Model within the context of SimRess project Methodology Insights into the model Results Conclusions

4 SimRess Project Models, Potentials and Long Term Scenarios for Resource Efficiency Aim is to model and analyse the potential effectiveness of resource efficiency policies and measures WP2.2 System Dynamics Modelling WORLD model development

5 Objective of the COBALT submodule to explore the global cobalt supply system and how sustainable it is today and will be in the future

6 Cobalt mining Cobalt is at present almost 100% dependent metal A very small amount comes from primary mining of cobalt

7 COBALT Use The present use of cobalt by society is diverse and about half the total cobalt production to the market is in the form of metallic cobalt Table 1. Overview of different uses of cobalt Product group Form Fraction of supply, % Share % Trend in use and since when Recycling Value added Superalloys Metallic Increases 1995 Yes High tting tools Metallic 11 Increases 1960 Partly Medium Magnets Metallic 12 Increase 1990 Partly High Other applications Metallic 11 Constant No Low Batteries Chemical Increases 2000 Yes Medium Chemicals, catalyst Chemical 9 Increases 1960 No Low Resins, pigments Chemical 13 Constant No Low!

8 Modelling Methodology Conceptual Modelling and Systems Analysis; Causal Loop Diagrams Flowcharts Systems Dynamics Modelling and Integrated Scenario Analysis; STELLA software Test on data, reconstruction of history for validation Model runs Develop policies

9 Conceptual Modelling and Systems Analysis CLD Profit drives mining Reserves Extraction Affluence Take from market Amount in the market Resource price Supply to the market Extraction profits Willingness to produce Extraction costs Reserve quality Demand Population

10 Conceptual Modelling and Systems Analysis Flowchart Origins of cobalt Zinc Copper Chromium Copper Cobalt Cobalt Nickel Nickel

11 Conceptual Modelling and Systems Analysis Flowchart Origins of cobalt Pb hidden ultra low Pb hidden low Pb hidden high Pb hidden rich hidden extra low hidden ultra low hidden low hidden high hidden rich Pb known ultra low Pb known low Pb known high Pb known rich known extra low known ultra low known low know high know rich Pb mining mining Ore smelter Refining Zn hidden ultra low Zn hidden low Zn hidden high Zn hidden rich Zn known ultra low Zn known low Zn known high Zn known rich Zn mining Secondary cobalt extraction Recycle Co market Co stockinsociety Co scrap Cobalt permanent losses hidden ultralow 02 km hidden ultralow 23 km Ni Refining Refining known ultralow hidden ultralow 45 km hidden ultralow 34 km mining hidden trace 02 km hidden trace 23 km Ni mining Ni known high Ni known low Ni hidden high Ni hidden low known trace hidden trace 45 km hidden trace 34 km Ni known ultra low Ni hidden ultra low hidden rare 02 km hidden rare 23 km known rare hidden rare 45 km hidden rare 34 km

12 Indium Copper Germanium, Tellurium Selenium, Cadmium Bismuth BRONZE submodule Antimony Silver Systems Dynamics Modelling and Integrated Scenario Analysis STELLA model BRONZE submodel for copper, zinc, lead and many dependent metals (silver, antimony, bismuth, indium, gallium, germanium, tellurium, selenium, cadmium) Aluminium Zinc Gallium Lead STEEL submodel for iron, manganese, chromium and nickel. Cobalt Submodule submodel for platinum, palladium and rhodium Manganese Iron STEEL submodule Platinum Group Metals submodule COBALT is the newly developed sub module for the cobalt market cycle. Chromium Nickel! Stainless steel

13 WORLD Model Outlook industrial output population RESOURCES POPULATION ABIOTIC MATERIALS BIOTIC MATERIALS Nuclear Chromium, Manganese, Nickel, Lead, Zinc Phosphorous Gas Oil Al population births fertility desired total fertility fertility maximum control total effectiveness fertility need for fertility control social family family size norm family planning income services expectations per capita deaths life expectancy health services per capita crowding Coal capital allocated to obtaining energy energy allocated to obtaining energy hidden energy (high, low, shale and tar) exploration known energy (high, low, ultralow ) extraction supply to market price energy in the market energy consumption resource of energy demand target resource demand per person Fe capital allocated to obtaining metal energy allocated to obtaining metal hidden metal (high, low, ultralow ) exploration known metal (high, low, ultralow ) mining shipment to market price metal in the market metal resource sales from demand the market target resource demand manufacturing per person society metal loss in use capital allocated to obtaining P energy allocated to obtaining P hidden P (high, low, ultralow ) exploration known P high, low, ultralow ) extraction supply to market price P in the market P consumption demand of P target P demand per person P in sludge recycling HYDRO, SOLAR, WIND disposal ECONOMY scrap loss scrapped metal service capital output ratio service capital depreciation rate average lifetime of service capital indicated service output per service capita output per service industrial capita industrial output output capital output ratio fraction of IO allocated to industrial service service capital industrial industrial services capital capital investment rate capital capital depreciation investment rate rate fraction of IO average lifetime allocated to of industrial capital consumption industrial output per capita POLLUTION industrial output per capita recycling industrial fraction of materials that toxicity are persistent index materials persistent pollution // generation rate emission factor persistent pollution appearance rate persistent pollution pollution assimilation rate AGRICULTURE fraction of inputs that are persistent materials agricultural materials toxicity index pollution relative to 1970 pollution assimilation halffife indicated food per capita agricultural investment food per capita food fraction of IO allocated to agriculture fraction allocated to land maintenance land development agricultural inputs arable land land erosion land yield land fertility // land fertility degradation land fertility regeneration

14 System Dynamics Modelling Use of data Grading the resource

15 System Dynamics Modelling Use of data Extractable amounts of, Ni,, Cr

16 System Dynamics Modelling Use of data Extractable amounts of Co from parent metal ore

17 Preliminary Results Extracted Co from Cr,, Ni, and recycling

18 Preliminary Results Different aspects of the Co market demand

19 Validation of model extraction rates and price with observed data

20 Conclusions The present use of cobalt shows a low degree of recycling and systemic losses are significant. The reserves of cobalt are not very large (2025 million ton extractable) as compared to metals like copper, zinc or iron, and after 2170 cobalt will have run out under a businessasusual scenario. The present businessasusual for cobalt use in society is in no way sustainable. Too much cobalt is lost if only market mechanisms are expected to improve recycling, and unnecessary cobalt is wasted if no policy actions are taken. The market mechanisms alone does not have the goal nor the competence to make cobalt use sustainable Sciencebased solutionoriented policy is needed to correct the situation before it is too late and too much cobalt has been lost.