SCRAP SUPPLEMENTS MARKET

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1 OECD Steel Committee Raw Materials Workshop December 5 th 2011 Paris SCRAP SUPPLEMENTS MARKET Chris Barrington Chief Advisor Disclaimer This presentation is intended for information purposes only and is not intended as promotional material in any respect. The material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purposes of sale of any financial instrument, is not intended to provide an investment recommendation and should not be relied upon. The material is derived from published sources, together with personal research. No responsibility or liability is accepted for any such information of opinions or for any errors, omissions, misstatements, negligence or otherwise for any other communication, written or otherwise. 1

2 IIMA: 85 members in more than 30 countries International Iron Metallics Association (IIMA) Created by the merger of the Hot Briquetted Iron Association and the International Pig Iron Association Producers of Merchant Pig Iron (MPI), Hot Briquetted Iron (HBI), Direct Reduced Iron (DRI) and Iron Nuggets Traders/Distributors Suppliers of raw materials, logistics, technology, equipment, consultancy, etc. Consumers of ferrous metallics December 5th 2011 OECD Steel Committee Raw Materials Workshop 3 SCRAP SUPPLEMENTS Merchant Pig Iron (MPI), Hot Briquetted Iron (HBI), Direct Reduced Iron (DRI) and Iron Nuggets are not scrap substitutes or alternative irons They are SCRAP SUPPLEMENTS and add value beyond the basic price of iron units! December 5th 2011 OECD Steel Committee Raw Materials Workshop 4 2

3 BENEFITS OF SCRAP SUPPLEMENTS Consistent quality and low residual content Dilutes impurities in scrap Better slag foaming Controlled C content, consistent C recovery N 2 scavenger = low N 2 content in steel Easier on hearth refractory & electrodes High density feedstock (pig iron & HBI), less charging time DRI/HBI can be continuously charged to EAF December 5th 2011 OECD Steel Committee Raw Materials Workshop 5 MERCHANT PIG IRON SOURCES Tulachermet 3.0 mtpy [1.8 mt in 2010] Kosaya Gora 0.7 mtpy [0.3 mt in 2010] Svobodny Sokol 0.8 mtpy [0.4 mt in 2010] Ural Steel 0.9 mt in 2010 NMLK Lipetsk 0.6 mt in 2010 STATE Capacity Furnaces million tonnes MA PA North Donetsksteel 0.6 mt in 2010 Multiple producers mtpy Vizag Steel NINL/MMTC private sector mini-bf s STATE Capacity Furnaces million tonnes MG ES MS South TiO 2 slag producers QIT Canada [±0.3 mtpy] Exxaro Sands South Africa [±0.7 mtpy] Eramet Titanium Norway [±0.1 mtpy] December 5th 2011 OECD Steel Committee Raw Materials Workshop 6 3

4 MERCHANT HBI/DRI SOURCES Lebedinsky GOK 2.3 mt LISCO 0.65 mt HBI 1.1 mt DRI Trinidad & Tobago: ArcelorMittal s and Nucor s captive plants mt Qatar Steel 1.5 mt DRI/HBI Antara Steel 0.9 mt Lion DRI 1.54 mt DRI/HBI Comsigua 1.3 mt Matesi 1.5 mt Venprecar 0.9 mt CVG-FMO 1.0 mt Orinoco Iron 2.2 mt Jindal Shadeed 1.5 mt HBI/DRI Welspun Maxsteel 0.9 mt DRI/HBI sponge iron producers using rotary kilns fired with coal ±20 mt December 5th 2011 OECD Steel Committee Raw Materials Workshop 7 IRON NUGGETS SOURCE MESABI NUGGET: 0.5M t plant started up in 2010; nuggets used in SDI melt shops Hoyt Lakes ITMK3 Process Developed & marketed by Kobe Steel & Midrex Active projects: Vietnam (2.4Mt) Kazakhstan (0.5Mt) India (SAIL MoU) December 5th 2011 OECD Steel Committee Raw Materials Workshop 8 4

5 TOTAL ORE-BASED METALLICS TRADE 2010 Total 2010: 82.2 mt domestic DRI/HBI, 2.0 intl DRI/HBI, 7.4 China domestic pig iron, 55.0 domestic pig iron, 7.0 intl pig iron, 10.8 December 5th 2011 OECD Steel Committee Raw Materials Workshop 9 MARKET STRUCTURE PRODUCERS TRADERS DISTRIBUTORS STEEL MILLS METAL CASTERS December 5th 2011 OECD Steel Committee Raw Materials Workshop 10 5

6 METALLICS PRICES December 5th 2011 OECD Steel Committee Raw Materials Workshop 11 METALLICS BALANCE Crude steel production 1,417 1,639 1,953 EAF share 29.0% 32.1% 33.9% EAF crude steel production EAF metallics required Metallics sources: Captive DRI Merchant DRI/HBI sub-total DRI/HBI Merchant pig iron Hot metal Scrap [by difference] Figures do not include pig iron used in foundries and DRI/HBI used in BF and BOF. December 5th 2011 OECD Steel Committee Raw Materials Workshop 12 6

7 SUPPLY-DEMAND ISSUES Supply-side: Raw material prices [70-80% of cash costs] Nationalization of Venezuelan HBI industry ITMK3 Process: i.e. supply of iron nuggets Demand-side: Impact of increased domestic demand in Russia Chinese demand for imported metallics Availability of low residual scrap December 5th 2011 OECD Steel Committee Raw Materials Workshop 13 MPI PRICE & RAW MATERIAL COSTS $600 Brazilian Pig Iron Price & Raw Material Costs $500 $400 $300 $200 $100 $0 Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10 Jul-10 Sep-10 Nov-10 Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Brazilian iron ore 64% fines - $/tonne FOB Brazilian basic pig iron FOB $/tonne Linear (Charcoal $/tonne FCA) Charcoal $/tonne FCA Linear (Brazilian iron ore 64% fines - $/tonne FOB) Linear (Brazilian basic pig iron FOB $/tonne) December 5th 2011 OECD Steel Committee Raw Materials Workshop 14 7

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