Cobalt as a by-product of nickel and copper production. Jack Bedder Senior Analyst Roskill Information Services. October 2 nd 2013

Transcription

1 Cobalt as a by-product of nickel and copper production Jack Bedder Senior Analyst Roskill Information Services October 2 nd 2013

2 Overview Background to the INSG/ICSG/Roskill study Rationale and aims Methodology Preliminary findings Reserves and resources Mine production Refined production Trade Next steps

3 Background to the INSG/ICSG/Roskill study

4 Background to the INSG/ICSG/Roskill study Rationale: The INSG and ICSG are collaborating on a study of cobalt. A better understanding of cobalt will assist in the analysis of nickel and copper markets. Aim: The aim of the study is to provide an overview of cobalt resources, mine and refined production, trade and markets, and examine the interrelationship between cobalt, nickel and copper in these same areas.

5 Background to the INSG/ICSG/Roskill study Methodology 1. Resources 2. Mine production 3. Refined production 4. Trade 5. Economics of by-product production 6. Consumption 7. Life cycle analysis

6 Preliminary findings: Resources

7 Resources: Co reserves mainly in Central African Copperbelt and Australia 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 World: Cobalt reserves and resources, 2012 Reserves Recoverable resources Resources Source: Roskill, Mudd and Weng 2012 Note: Reserve data from USGS. Resource data from Mudd and Weng. Recoverable resources based on estimates from Mudd and Weng.

8 Resources: Co mainly hosted in Cu-Co sulphide deposits Deposit 49% World: Cobalt resources, by status, and ore body 2012 In operation 45% Ni Laterite 24% Development 5% Care and maintenance 2% Source: Roskill Cu-Co sulphide 69% Ni-Cu sulphide 7%

9 Preliminary findings: Mine production

10 Mine production: Co mine production dominated by DRC World: Cobalt mine production 2012 (t Co) DRC Cuba Russia Australia Brazil New Caledonia Philippines Canada Zambia Morocco South Africa China Indonesia Others 2012 world production: 102,500t Co Source: Roskill, USGS

11 Mine production: African ore typically Cu-Co, ROW typically nickel based 10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 World: Mine production, by ore type, and country, 2012 (t Co) DRC: 56,400t Ni sulphide Ni laterite Iron oxide copper gold Cu Tailings Cu-Co sulphide Source: Roskill, Mudd and Weng 2012

12 Mine production: Primary Cu and Co operations drive African cobalt production, Ni projects generate cobalt in ROW World: Mine production, by primary product, and country, 2012 (t Co) 10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 DRC: Co 17k, Cu 43k Source: Roskill Ni Ni/Cu Co Cu PGMs Pb

13 Mine production: Nearly half of cobalt mine production comes from primary copper producers, one third comes from primary nickel producers World: Mine production, by primary product, 2012 (t Co) Cobalt 18% Copper 46% Nickel 35% Other 1% Source: Roskill

14 Preliminary findings: Refined production

15 Refined production: Refined production dominated by China World: Cobalt refined production 2012 (t Co) China Finland Canada Zambia Australia Belgium Norway DRC Japan Russia Brazil Morocco India Others Metal Chemical 2012 world production: 76,700t Co Source: Roskill, CDI, WBMS, Company reports

16 Refined production: Cobalt produced as main refined product in China, Finland and Zambia World: Refined production, by primary product, and country, 2012 (t Co) 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Ni Co Cu PGMs Other Source: Roskill, CDI, WBMS, Company reports

17 Preliminary findings: Trade

18 Trade: Cobalt traded as a raw material, an intermediate and a refined product Cobalt traded in a number of forms: Ores and concentrates Intermediate cobalt products Contained in nickel mattes As a refined metal As a refined chemical

19 Trade: Trade in ores and concentrates, 2012 Exporting country Country of destination DRC 1 Russia 1 Cuba 1 S. Africa Austria 1 Canada Belgium Zambia 1 USA 1 Other 3 Total China 2 166,397-4,749 2, ,137 Finland - 6, ,741 S. Korea 1 1, ,958 USA UK Netherlands Belgium Brazil Belgium Other Total 168,208 6,728 4,749 3,052 1, , ,347 Source: Global Trade Atlas (values in tonnes gross weight ) Note: 1 Inferred from import data 2 Some information inferred from import data. China includes Hong Kong

20 Trade: DRC is the major source of cobalt ores and concs to China, the world s largest refined producer World: Key trade routes, cobalt ores and concentrates, 2012 Cu-Co sulphide, Cu tailings Ni sulphide Ni laterite Source: Global Trade Atlas

21 Trade: Cobalt also traded in intermediate form Exporting country Country of destination DRC 1 Russia Australia Belgium Brazil Netherlands S. Korea Canada USA Total China 2 76, ,878 Finland 53,496 6, ,485 South Korea - - 2, ,722 Belgium , ,339 Canada Japan UK Norway USA Others Total 129,803 8,003 4,225 1,646 1,561 1, ,763 Source: Global Trade Atlas (values in tonnes gross weight ) Note: 1 Inferred from import data 2 Some information inferred from import data. China includes Hong Kong

22 Canada Indonesia Australia Botswana Brazil New Caledonia South Africa Singapore Finland Other Total Trade: Cobalt also traded in nickel matte Exporting country Country of destination Norway Japan UK China Finland France Russia Canada Belgium Other Total Source: Global Trade Atlas (values in 000 tonnes gross weight) 1 China includes Hong Kong

23 Trade: DRC is the major source of cobalt ores and concs to China, the world s largest refined producer World: Key trade routes, nickel matte and cobalt intermediates, 2012 Nickel matte Co intermediates Source: Global Trade Atlas

24 Trade: Top five refined producers obtain cobalt from a range of sources Refined producer Mine Import ores/concs Import intermediates Refined trade China Yes DRC, Cuba, S. Africa Ni matte from Australia, Co intermediates from DRC Metal to USA, Oxides to S. Korea and Japan Finland Yes Russia Co intermediates from Russia, Ni matte from Australia & Brazil Oxides to S. Korea and USA, Metal to Japan Canada Yes - Co intermediates from Belgium and Australia, Ni matte from Australia Metal to Norway and Japan, Canada to USA Zambia Yes DRC - Metal to Japan, USA, China & Europe Australia Yes - - Metal to Europe and USA Source: Roskill, Global Trade Atlas

25 Summary: The cobalt supply chain is complicated, as is its relationship with Ni and Cu Resources: Mine production: 70% of cobalt resources hosted in Cu-Co deposits in Central Africa Nearly half of cobalt mine production comes from primary copper producers Refined production: Nearly half of refined cobalt output was from companies that are primarily cobalt producers Trade: Cobalt is traded in a variety of forms Using the database created as part of this research, we can better understand the cobalt supply chain and the interrelationship between Co, Ni and Cu. Source: Global Trade Atlas

26 Next steps 1. Resources 2. Mine production 3. Refined production 4. Trade 5. Economics of by-product production 6. Consumption 7. Life cycle analysis

27 Thank you for you attention!

28 Roskill Information Services New Reports INSG/ICSG: Cobalt by-product report Available on project completion Nickel: Market Outlook to 2017 Multi-Client Report Coming Soon Cobalt: Market Outlook to 2017 Multi-Client Report Coming Soon Recent reports published on Molybdenum (2011) and Rhenium (2012). A report on Indium will be published in 2014.

29 Roskill Consulting Group Global coverage In recent years we have served clients in the US, Canada, China, Russia, the EU, Japan, Brazil, Australia, South Africa and the Middle East. We are experienced in interviewing overseas, with the advantage of having several French, Spanish, Italian, Dutch and Chinese - speaking consultants. Tracking news and trends Our primary research is backed up by our uniquely comprehensive inhouse information system. This database is a fund of published and unpublished information, collated under 350 file headings, compiled from company reports, official national statistics, over 150 leading trade journals, technical and trade literature and many other reliable international sources. We also subscribe to a range of on-line resources, including comprehensive business information services and a trade database, so that we can analyse developments in metals and minerals markets as they happen. We have a staff of senior consultants, each with many years of consulting experience. In turn, they are supported by a team of analysts who are engaged in full-time metals and minerals research. This means that we are able to offer a wide range of consulting skills combined with detailed, practical knowledge of the metals and minerals business today.

30 Trade: Ores and concentrates trade declined in 2012 World: Trade of coblat ores and concs, 2008 to 2012 (t gross weight ) 400, , , , , , ,000 50, DRC Russia Cuba South Africa Other Source: Global Trade Atlas

31 Consumption Superalloy, 20% HS Steel, 3% Tools, 9% Catalyst, 12% Pigment/decolouri ser, 8% Soaps/dryers, 7% Source: Roskill Battery, 31% Other (inc feedstuffs), 5% Magnet, 6%