The Threat of Substitution and Raw Materials Efficiency of Materials to the Copper Scrap Market.

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1 The Threat of Substitution and Raw Materials Efficiency of Materials to the Copper Scrap Market 0

2 Content 1. Diehl Group 2. Diehl Metall 3. Diehl Metall in the Value Chain 4. Scrap Generation and Scrap Consumption 5. Copper Scrap Classification 6. Copper Scrap Availability General Indicators Focus on Raw Materials Efficiency and Substitution 7. Conclusion 1

3 1. Diehl Group Family-owned since ,100 Employees 80 Locations worldwide 3.17 bn Sales Trend

4 Diehl Group: Sales Sales ( m) Sales by Corporate Divisions ( m) ,2% 28,7% Metall ,5% Controls 450 Defence 460 Aerosystems Metering ,9% 10,4% (Trend) 0,3% Other 10 3

5 Diehl Group: Corporate Divisions 4

6 Diehl Group: Locations Global presence Comprehensive know-how exchange 5

7 2. Corporate Division Diehl Metall Diehl Metall Dr.-Ing Heinrich Schunk (President) Dipl.-Kfm. Rainer Wehn Diehl Metall Stiftung Röthenbach/Germany Diehl Metall Messing Röthenbach/Germany Diehl Metall Schmiedetechnik Röthenbach/Germany SMH Süddeutsche Metallhandelsgesellschaft Röthenbach/Germany Diehl Werkzeugbau Seebach Seebach/Germany Diehl do Brasil Metalúrgica São Paulo/Brasil Diehl SynchroTec Manufacturing Wuxi/China Diehl Metal India Pune/India Diehl Metal Applications Berlin Teltow/Germany Sundwiger Messingwerk Hemer/Germany The Miller Company Meriden, Connecticut/USA Franconia Industries Meriden, Connecticut/USA Diehl Metall (Shenzhen) Shenzhen/China Diehl Power Electronic Siaugues Ste-Marie/ France Diehl Augé Découpage Besançon/France ZIMK Zehdenick Innovative Metall- und Kunststofftechnik Zehdenick/Germany 6

8 3. Diehl Metall in the Value Chain

9 4. Copper Scrap Generation and Consumption Refinery Semi Fabricator Part/System Manufacturer OEM Scrap Generation: Raw Materials Consumption: Direct use scraps Direct use scraps (few) End-of-Life scraps (few) End-of-Life scraps All scrap grades and residues Focus: End-of-Life scraps Primary Metal High quality direct use scraps 8

10 5. Copper Scrap Classification Trade Terms: Guidelines and Specifications for Metal Trading (VDM - Germany) ISRI-Guidelines for Nonferrous Scrap (USA) European Standard EN ASTM Standard Designation for Wrought and Cast Copper and Copper Alloys (USA) DU Scrap Homogenous, clean, alloy equal, no attachments, might be crucible size NDU Scrap Like DU Scrap but not alloy equal, not End-of-Life (e.g. plated scrap) Usually deviation via Copper Refinery End-of-Life Scrap Without treatment no raw material for Semi-Fabricators Usually consumed by Copper Refinery 9

11 6. Copper Scrap Availability General Indicators LME Price Raw Materials Efficiency Substitution Investment in Infrastructure Economical Growth Steel Scrap Price Distortion of Competition Overcapacities? 10

12 Copper Scrap Availability General Indicators LME Price Prices go up: Scrap processors sell Prices go down: Scrap processors don t sell, hold material Only short-term effect on availability 11

13 Copper Scrap Availability General Indicators Raw Materials Efficiency Industry is optimising products and processes Examples: Hollow Rod / Rod Flashless Forging High impact on availability of DU scraps (especially of Cu alloys) 12

14 Copper Scrap Availability General Indicators Substitution Substitution is driven by benefit: Weight Price, Volatility of price Availability Machinability or other technical benefits Sense of beauty/aesthetics Others Cu and Cu alloys can be substituted by: Aluminium Steel Plastics Impact on availability of DU and EoL scraps shift to other materials (e.g. Aluminium) 13

15 Copper Scrap Availability General Indicators Substitution Substitution has a bigger impact on Cu scraps than on Cu alloy scraps Source: ICA Presentation at IWCC Joint Meeting in Cape Town, May

16 Copper Scrap Availability General Indicators Investment in Infrastructure Infrastructure investment mainly by public investors Infrastructure: Housing, Traffic, Energy Since financial crisis 2008/2009 no significant investments in infrastructure at least in Southern Europe Infrastructure investments are biggest drivers for Copper consumption High impact on availability of EoL scraps 15

17 Copper Scrap Availability General Indicators Economical Growth Mainly driven by: Demand, consumption, imports, exports Investment by companies State incentives (if applicable) But: Result of company investments usually are products which are more efficient, economical & sustainable Therefore: Absolute availability increases (medium term) Relative availability decreases (long term) because of Raw Materials Efficiency Impact on availability of DU (high) and EoL scraps (medium) 16

18 Copper Scrap Availability General Indicators Steel Scrap Price Small traders, collecting from private households are dependant on steel scrap prices which cover the collecting costs. These collectors take nonferrous scrap, too. If the steel scrap prices are too low these scrap sources dry-out until the prices recover. Short-term impact on availability of EoL scraps 17

19 Copper Scrap Availability General Indicators Distortion of Competition Especially in countries with high raw materials demand scrap imports are supported by subsidies like discount on import taxes or duties. These subsidies may cause a distortion of competition. Impact on availability of EoL (high) and DU scraps (medium) 18

20 Copper Scrap Availability General Indicators Overcapacities? Overcapacities in the scrap recycling market do not cause a scrap shortage. The scrap volume remains the same. It is a result of a market development regarding consumption (Raw Materials Efficiency) and demand (Economy) of metals without consolidation of the recycling market. 19

21 7. Conclusion Main drivers for future availabilities of Copper scrap: DU Scrap Raw Materials Efficiency Economical Growth Substitution EoL Scrap Investment in Infrastructur Economical Growth All other indicators only have a short term impact on the availability of Copper scrap. Fabricators like Diehl Metall use more primary metal if the availability of scrap decreases. 20

22 Thank you! Diehl Metall Stiftung & Co. KG Heinrich-Diehl-Straße Röthenbach a.d. Pegnitz, Deutschland Phone Fax Name Dipl.-Ing. Uwe Schmidt uwe.schmidt@diehl.com sales-metall@diehl.com 21

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