Not dead yet? The future of FeSi consumption and production in Europe
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1 Not dead yet? The future of FeSi consumption and production in Europe Kevin Fowkes Ferroalloy Industry Consultant 15 th November, 2011
2 What is ferrosilicon? A ferroalloy of iron and silicon (FeSi), normally ~75% Si Used extensively in molten crude steel as a de-oxidising agent Also used to add electrical conductivity and corrosion-resistance properties to steel Average Si content of steel is 0.3%. Many individual grades are much higher in Si stainless steel (up to 1% Si), electrical steels (up to 7% Si) Around 70% of global FeSi output is used in steel Other important applications are for de-carburising molten grey iron for the production of foundry castings (20% of global FeSi consumption) and for producing magnesium metal in China (7% of global FeSi consumption)
3 Global FeSi demand is 8Mt in European share has fallen from 24% in 2000 to 12% in Global FeSi production (million tonnes 75% basis) 8 Rest of world 6 Other Asia % 59% China CIS N.America Europe 0 24% 12%
4 European FeSi consumption has developed broadly in line with European crude steel output 1200 EU-27 FeSi consumption (thousand tonnes 75% basis) EU-27 crude steel output (million tonnes) Steel output (right axis)
5 The geography of European FeSi demand reflects the geography of European steel output 250 EU-27 crude steel output (million tonnes) Other countries Poland UK France Spain Italy Germany 0 Source: worldsteel.org
6 FeSi demand in Europe is heavily focused on niche grades stainless, electrical, foundry castings EU-27 FeSi consumption by end-use, 2011* Stainless steel Electrical steel Other carbon steel Foundry Other *total consumption ~800,000mt
7 Consumption of FeSi per tonne of steel in Europe remains on a flat long-term trend 5.00 EU-27 FeSi consumption (kg) per tonne of crude steel output Linear trend line
8 This reflects a balance of electrical steel output underperforming the average, and stainless over-performing EU-27 steel production (Index, 2001=100) Total crude steel Stainless 100 steel Electrical steel Source: worldsteel.org, ISSF
9 Whilst consumption of FeSi per tonne of steel in Europe is flat, the trend for SiMn is rising 6.00 EU-27 FeSi and SiMn consumption (kg) per tonne of crude steel produced SiMn FeSi
10 Whilst consumption of FeSi per tonne of steel in Europe is flat, the trend for SiMn is rising This reflects several factors: Increasing use of manganese to add strength to European steel especially auto steels. Many non-surface-exposed auto steels can use SiMn, which is seen as the most cost-effective option Increasing cheapness of SiMn relative to using FeSi + FeMn Over time, steel plant hopper configurations and management culture can be adapted to switch between SiMn, FeMn and FeSi Short-term substitution between SiMn, FeMn and FeSi does not occur in Europe to any significant degree
11 Using SiMn is consistently cheaper for European steelmakers than using FeSi+FeMn 3,500 Price to European steelmaker for one tonne of SiMn versus FeSi+HCFeMn* (US$ per tonne) 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 FeSi + HCFeMn* SiMn *Equivalent quantities of FeSi and HCFeMn needed to provide same level of Si and Mn as one tonne of SiMn, incorporating credit for extra Fe units
12 Nevertheless, a significant proportion of European steelmakers are restricted in their ability to use SiMn To use SiMn, ideal Si to Mn ratio in steel is 1 to 4 FeSi necessary in all steels where Si to Mn ratio is high (eg electrical steels ratio of max 20 to 1) High Si to Mn ratio also in most foundry iron castings Plant design and configuration difficult and expensive to change Steel company inertia, and engineer-led purchasing
13 Future European FeSi consumption will be in the range of ,000mt per year 1200 EU-27 FeSi consumption (thousand tonnes 75% basis) Permanent steel & foundry plant closures in recession Closures from recession? Closures from BFs needing reline?
14 Currently, European and Scandinavian producers supply 60% of the European FeSi market 1,200 FeSi supply to the EU-27 market (thousand tonnes 75% basis) Anti-dumping duties imposed in ,000 Other 800 Brazil % 36% 18% 32% 17% 23% China CIS Norway & Iceland EU domestic
15 FeSi anti-dumping duty rates in the European Union, as imposed in 2007 China Erdos 16% China others 29 31% Egypt 15 18% Kazakhstan 34% Macedonia 5%* Russia 18 23%** * Reduced to zero in review, Dec 2009 ** Subject to as yet unsuccessful review in
16 A map of European ferrosilicon producers Finnfjord Elkem Iceland Elkem Salten Fesil Rana NORWAY & ICELAND Elkem Bremanger Elkem Bjolvefossen EU PRODUCERS Huta Laziska OFZ Ferroatlantica Cee Ferroatlantica Dumbria Ferroatlantica Chateau Feuillet Ferroatlantica Laudun Ferroatlantica Pierrefitte Silmak
17 European FeSi production capacity is 700,000 tonnes per year, 85% of European consumption 900 (thousand tonnes 75% basis) Silmak OFZ Huta Laziska 400 Ferroatlantica Finnfjord Fesil Elkem EU FeSi demand, 2011 European FeSi production, % European FeSi capacity, %
18 FeSi spot price development recent steep declines in Europe 3,000 Standard 75 FeSi spot prices (US$/tonne) 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 China export USA Europe 500 0
19 At current prices, one third of supply to the European FeSi market is in loss-making territory European FeSi operating cost** curve, 2011, Euros per tonne ADD* 1200 Current price 1050 ADD* Russians Brazilians Chinese Norwegian & Icelandic producers Cumulative production EU producers *ADD = anti-dumping duty ** cash cost plus depreciation
20 European power prices have provided respite in 2011, but have started to rise again 120 Nordpool system power price (US$/MWh) Production cost breakdown by component for average European FeSi plant Labour 25% Electricity 40% Other raw materials 10% 0 Coke 25%
21 In conclusion European production and consumption of FeSi is not dead yet, and both still have a future Consumption of FeSi relative to steel output in Europe has stuck to a stable long-term trend Some consumption decline likely in next 5 years reflecting prospects for EU steel production, but demand of 700,000 tonnes should be maintained SiMn is gradually gaining market share in Europe, but sudden short-term switching from FeSi is not likely Break even costs for European swing/marginal capacity sets medium term price level in market protected by anti-dumping duties Current prices are /tonne below break-even for marginal producers; output reductions seem likely in short term
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