Katerina Yefimenko National Centre for Global Market Research (DZI) Ukraine: geopolitics and ferro-alloys production

Transcription

1 Katerina Yefimenko National Centre for Global Market Research (DZI) Ukraine: geopolitics and ferro-alloys production

2 Production by process (2013) Ukraine Russia EU 27 Oxygen converter, % Electric arc furnace, % Open hearth, % Million tonnes Ukraine, Ukrainian metallurgy is one of the most energy-intensive and raw material consuming industries in the world The share of continuous-casting process is steadily increasing Iron and steel mills develop long-term modernization programs Oxygen converter, % Electric arc furnace, % Open hearth, %

3 Production Indicators tonnes (6М) Open hearth Oxygen converter Electric arc furnace Total

4 How much ferro-alloys are used in Ukraine depending on steelmaking process? Oxygen converter 13.8 kg/t Open hearth 8.5 kg/t Electric arc furnace 50.4 kg/t

5 Forecast of steel production in Ukraine tonnes Open hearth Pes Opt Pes Opt 4,920 5,530 3,960 5,760 BOF 19,850 22,370 16,940 24,640 EAF 1,430 1,600 1,100 1,600 Total 26,200 29,500 22,000 32,000 Forecast of apparent ferro-alloys consumption in Ukraine Pes Opt Pes Opt 000 tonnes Open hearth BOF EAF Total

6 Key producers of bulk ferro-alloys Kramatorsk Ferroalloy Plant Stakhanov Ferroalloy Plant Nikipol Ferroalloy Plant Zaporizhia Ferroalloy Plant

7 FeSi75, FeSi70, FeSi65, FeSi45 Ukraine: geopolitics and ferro-alloys production Key producers FeMn78 (P %, C %; P %, C %), FeMn88 (P %, C %) FeSiMn25 (C ), FeSiMn17 (C ) Mn95 (C ) FeMn78 (P %, C 7.0%), FeMn88 (P %, C 2.0%) FeSiMn22 (Si 20-25%, C 1.0%), FeSiMn17 (Si 15-20%, C 2.5%) FeSi75, FeSi70, FeSi65, FeSi45 FeMn78 (P %, C %), FeMn78 (P %, C 7.0%) FeSiMn17 (Si 15-20%, C 2.5%) FeMn78 (P %, C %)

8 Production of bulk ferro-alloys ( 000 tonnes) (9M) 2014 (9M)

9 Production of bulk ferro-alloys ( 000 tonnes) (9M) 2014 (9M) FeSi* FeMn FeSiMn Total 1,416 1, , % 68% FeSi (45%) FeMn 13% FeSiMn * Based on 45% Si content

10 Export of bulk ferro-alloys tonnes (9M) 0 FeMn FeSi FeSiMn 10% 11% 79% FeMn FeSi FeSiMn

11 Export of FeMn ( 000 tonnes) Others 8% ЕU-28 23% 2013 Others 6% ЕU-28 32% 2014 (9M) 69% 62%

12 70 Export of SiMn ( 000 tonnes) ЕU-28 23% Others 6% 33% Middle East 31% 2013 SEA 7% Others 2% Middle East 3% ЕU-28 64% 31% 2014 (9M)

13 Export of FeSi ( 000 tonnes) (9M) 9% Middle East 28% ЕU-28 63% Middle East 4% 6% ЕU-28 90%

14 Import of bulk ferro-alloys tonnes (9M) 0 FeMn FeSi FeSiMn 17% 12% 71% FeMn FeSi FeSiMn

15 6 Ukraine: geopolitics and ferro-alloys production Import of FeMn ( 000 tonnes) Others 2% EU-28 38% SEA 24% % 2013 EU-28 5% South & Central America 1% SEA 5% Other Europe 37% 52% 2014 (9M)

16 12 Ukraine: geopolitics and ferro-alloys production Import of SiMn ( 000 tonnes) % SEA 11% Other Europe 17% Central Asia 42% ЕU-28 3% 2013 Others 1% Other Europe 35% 29% ЕU-28 10% SEA 20% 2014 (9M) Central Asia 6%

17 North Africa 5% Central Asia 4% Ukraine: geopolitics and ferro-alloys production Import of FeSi ( 000 tonnes) ЕU-28 17% Other Europe 36% SEA 22% % ЕU-28 5% North Africa 7% Central Asia 2% Others 1% SEA 8% Other Europe 58% 19% 2014 (9M)

18 Current situation Stakhanov Ferroalloy Plant (SFP) is located directly in the conflict area and stopped production of FeSi in August. Other three producers are still operating, trying to compensate the termination of Stakhanov Ferroalloy Plant. Supplies of raw materials, in particular coke, are limited and irregular. Roads, railway tracks and electricity lines are damaged. This poses a threat to manufacturing processes, complicates the supply of raw materials and shipment of finished products. Metallurgical and chemical enterprises terminate production due to damaged infrastructure in the conflict area.

19 Russia EU Ukraine Global community is implementing financial sanctions against some Russian companies and individuals but it still hasn t significantly changed the political situation in the region. Financial sanctions may slightly slow down the economic growth of Russia. EU trade sanctions against Russia are unlikely in this segment. In September 2014 Russia adopted a decree concerning introduction of import customs duties for some products of Ukrainian origin. Ukraine is considering introduction of counter measures. Ferroalloys have not yet been part of the trade war.

20 State regulation of the ferroalloy market Association Agreement between Ukraine and the EU Cancelation of subsidies Harmonization of standards Reduction of customs duties

21 Conclusions Despite instability, Ukrainian producers have increased production and exports for 9 months of The industry is export oriented. Significant manganese reserves in Ukraine allow expanding new capacities for production of manganese ferro-alloys. Export to Russia remains unchanged or slightly higher. Russia's share in the export structure is reduced. Ukraine continues to create conditions for transparent international trade according to the agreement with EU. We are open for new technologies and products, providing great opportunities for suppliers, producers and equipment manufacturers.

22 Thank you for attention! Katerina Yefimenko Senior analyst of non-ferrous and ferro-alloys department National Centre for Global Market Research (DZI) Tel./fax: +38 (044)