Srikalahasti Pipes Ltd.

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1 Well placed to benefit from water infrastructure development BUY July 20, 2016 (SPL) (formerly known as Lanco Industries Ltd.) is one of the leading producer of ductile iron (DI) pipes in India. Incorporated in 1991, the company is currently engaged into the manufacturing of DI pipes, pig iron, coke and cement. Its manufacturing facility is located in Rachagunneri Village in Tirupathi (Andhra Pradesh). Investment Rationale: (Page: 8-10) Heavy push on improving water infrastructure Capacity expansion to aid volume growth Market leader in South and West India Strong order book One of the low cost producer DI pipe manufacturers in India Higher demand to derive top-line, stable material cost to ease pressure on the profitability Strengthening balance sheet Risk and Concerns: (Page: 12) Subdued economic recovery Increase in competition Rise in raw material prices Valuation: (Page: 14) On the back of huge investments in drinking water and sanitation projects, the demand of DI pipes is expected to be bright. SPL is augmenting its DI pipe capacity to meet the user demand. Below are the few key observations of the company: Market leader in South India and West India with a market share of around 75%. Likely to the key beneficiary of the water projects in South and West India. Pan India market share of 10 11% Backward integrated operations One of the low cost producer of DI pipes in India One of the highly efficient company in the industry Most profitable company in the industry since last 2-3 years At CMP of Rs , the company s share is trading at TTM P/E multiple of 7.1x. Additionally, SPL is trading at a P/BVPS and EV/EBITDA multiple of 2.6x and 5.7x, respectively. Based on an EV/EBITDA multiple of 5.7x to FY18E EBITDA, we arrive at a target price of Rs per share, translating into a potential gain of 35.3%. Thus we recommend a BUY rating on the stock. Rating Matrix CMP (Rs.) MCAP (Rs. mn) 11,265.3 Rating Buy Potential price (Rs.) Upside potential 35.3% 52 week H/L (Rs.) 349 / Investment horizon 18 Months Face value (Rs.) 10 Category Small Cap Sector Iron & Steel Products Shareholding Pattern as on 30 th June 2016 Particulars June-16 Mar-16 Dec-15 Sept-15 Promoters 50.8% 50.8% 50.8% 50.8% FIIs 1.4% 1.5% 3.4% 3.1% DIIs 0.8% 0.8% 0.9% 0.8% Non institutions 47.0% 46.9% 45.0% 45.4% Financial Snapshot (Rs. bn) Projections FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 Revenue EBITDA Adjusted PAT (0.1) EBITDA (%) 6.0% 11.8% 17.1% 23.3% 23.7% 23.6% PAT (%) -1.5% 3.9% 7.6% 13.9% 13.5% 13.9% EPS (3.3) BVPS RoNW (%) -6.8% 17.2% 28.0% 37.1% 29.1% 25.7% RoCE (%) 4.3% 13.1% 21.6% 27.3% 26.8% 25.9% P/E P / BVPS EV/EBIDTA Relative Capital Market Strength Srikalahasti Pipes Ltd. Sensex Rajnath Yadav Board line: ; Ext. 912 rajnath.yadav@choiceindia.com 1

2 Company Introduction: (SPL) (formerly known as Lanco Industries Ltd.) is one of the leading producer of ductile iron (DI) pipes in India. Incorporated in 1991, the company is currently engaged into the manufacturing of DI pipes, pig iron, coke and cement. Its manufacturing facility is located in Rachagunneri Village in Tirupathi (Andhra Pradesh). In 2002, SPL entered into a strategic alliance with Electrsteel Castings Ltd. (ECL), pursuant to which the later has infused around Rs. 220mn in the company to strengthen the equity base. Presently, SPL is an associate company of ECL, which has over five decade of experience in servicing the water infrastructure industry. ECL along with another associate company Electrosteel Steels Ltd. is engaged into the manufacturing of DI pipes and other steel products. Electrosteel Group Structure Electrosteel Castings Ltd. (Engaged in the manufacturing of DI pies and ductile iron fittings) 48.5% 45.2% (Engaged in the production of DI pipes, pig iron, coke and cement) Electrosteel Steels Ltd. (Engaged in the manufacturing of DI pipes and other steel products) Advantage of the group structure: Parent is the pioneer in the DI pipe business in India and has vast experience in servicing the water infrastructure industry. Experience of the parent company helps SPL to deliver quality products. Cost advantage in the procurement of key raw materials other than iron ore. All the three companies are financially independent. Below are the manufacturing infrastructures of SPL: Product Capacity as on 31st Mar (mn tonnes) Product Brand Pig Iron Description Pig iron manufactured acts a as a raw material for DI pipes. Surplus pig iron is sold in the open market. DI Pipes 0.23 SRPIPES Key product of the company. Cement 0.09 Srikalahasthi Gold Cement Used for captive consumption and excess is sold in the market. Coke Used for captive consumption and excess is sold in the market. 2

3 Company Introduction (Contd ): Apart from this, SPL has a power generation capacity of 14.5MW, comprising of 12MW waste heat recovery of coke oven plant and 2.5MW captive power plant, which runs of blast gas furnace. Around 75% of the power requirement is internally met, while the rest is procured from the state government. On raw material front, the company sources key raw material from the open market. Iron ore is procured via open market purchase in Karnataka through an auction process. Coking coal is imported from Australia. For lime stone, it has three long term mines on lease. The company primarily caters to drinking water infrastructure projects and its clientele includes names such as Larsen & Toubro Ltd., Hyderabad Metro Rail, VA Tech Wabag Ltd., Sriram EPC, NCC Ltd. etc. SPL generates majority of its revenue from the sale of DI pipes and rest from the sale of pig iron, cement etc. Revenue Mix in FY15 2.4% 3.4% 13.2% 6.9% 74.2% DI Pipes Pig Iron Coke Cement Others Currently, SPL is implementing a Rs. 1,000mn capex program, by which it will expand the DI pipe manufacturing capacity to 0.3mn tonnes from current capacity of 0.23mn tonnes. Mini blast furnace (MBF) capacity will have a volume gain of mn tonnes, mainly due to the setting up of the pulverized coal injection plant to the existing MBF. The capex plan is likely to be completed by Sept Earlier capex plan of Rs. 1,000mn in FY13 was mainly used to increase the MBF capacity to current 0.28mn tonnes from 0.23mn tonnes in FY12. To further enhance its backward integration, recently, the company has approved a capex of Rs. 550mn to put two ferro alloy facilities to manufacture various ferro silicas. Currently, SPL meets the requirement of ferro silica from imports from Middle East. With government incentives and lower cost, the company aims to set up two plants of 9MVA capacity each. The project is expected to be completed by Q2 FY18. It will be a backward integration plus new commodity addition. The company has also approved a capex of Rs. 250mn for putting up a doubled walled corrugated pipe plant to meet growing demand of pipes from water sewerage and drainage projects. Plant is likely to be completed by Mar This will be a new product category. Currently there is not much competition in this product segment as it is 3-4 years old. By this, SPL will be able to expand its product range and services to the water industry. Target market for this will be mainly South India. 3

4 Water Industry Overview: India accounts for about 17% of the world s population but only 4% of the world s fresh water resources. Distribution of these water resources across the vast area of the country is also uneven. As per the international norms, a country is classified as water stressed and water scarce if per capita water availability goes below 1,700 cubic meters and 1,000 cubic meters, respectively. With 1,544 cubic meters per capita water availability, India is already a water-stressed country and moving towards turning water scarce. (Source: NITI Aayog Report). Two successive drought conditions have aggravated the water stress nationally. According to a forecast, the per capita water availability is expected to decline to 1,140 cubic meters in 2050 from 1,544 cubic meters in Annual per capita Availability of Water (in Cubic Meter) 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1, ,042 1,816 1,544 1,340 1, While the stress on limited water resources in the country is rising, the scarcity is not reflected in use of water. India uses 2-4 times water to produce one unit of major food crops as compared to other major agricultural countries like China, Brazil, USA. These variations imply that if India attains water use efficiency of those countries it can save at least half of water presently used for irrigation purposes (Source: NITI Aayog). At present, irrigation consumes about 84% of total available water. Industrial and domestic sectors consume about 12% and 4% of total available water, respectively. Additionally, the rising urban population has compounded the water scarcity problem. In India only 33% of the urban and 22% of the rural population have access to better sanitation. According to the 12th five year plan, around 40% of the population is expected to live in urban areas. To tackle the above issue, there is urgent need to conserve water, efficient usage and at the same time to meet the growing demand. The solution to this is the improvement and enhancement in the water disposable system. Here is hence the use of DI pipe comes in the water industry. DI Pipe Industry Overview: DI pipes are widely used in the water piping industry, mainly due to its high tensile strength, flexible & leak tight joints, corrosion resistant and longer service life. On the back of these strengths, the DI pipes have witnessed an increasing acceptance by the customers. This can be witnessed by the increased share of the DI pipes purchase from 33% to 52% in the total pipe purchase, while the share of other pipes have remained stagnant or declined. Increasing share demonstrates the preference of DI pipes over other pipes, especially steel pipes. In urban and semi-urban areas, most of the government bodies have started replacing the existing pipes with DI pipes, while in rural area the use of other pipes still exists, mainly due lower capital cost. 4

5 DI Pipe Industry Overview (Contd ) Global DI pipe production capacity is around 5.4mn tonnes per annum, while domestic production capacity as on FY16 end is around 2-2.2mn tonnes. Major players in the domestic DI pipe industry are given below: Electrosteel Castings Ltd. Electrosteel Steels Ltd. Srikalahasti Pipes Ltd. Electrotherm (India) Ltd. Jai Balaji Industries Ltd. Jindal Saw Ltd. Sathavahana Ispat Ltd. Tata Metaliks DI Pipes Ltd. According to market share, Electrocast Group (comprising of Electrosteel Castings Ltd., Electrosteel Steels Ltd. and Srikalahasti Pipes Ltd.) has a dominant market share on around 33-36% in the domestic market. Jindal Saw Ltd. is the single largest DI pipe manufacturer in India with a market share of around 22-25%. Major DI Pipes Manufacturers Market Share in India % 5-5.5% % 10-11% % % % % % Jindal Saw Ltd. Jai Balaji Industries Ltd. Electrosteel Steels Ltd. Electrotherm (India) Ltd. Electrosteel Castings Ltd. Srikalahasti Pipes Ltd. Sathavahana Ispat Ltd. Tata Metaliks DI Pipes Ltd. In FY16, the total national DI pipe production was around 1.3mn tonnes, translating into a capacity utilization of 60%. With increasing demand of DI pipes, the capacity utilization level is expected to go up in coming years. Demand drivers of DI pipes: Few of the demand drivers of DI pipes are listed below: Revival in domestic economic growth Increasing demand for water Rapid urbanization Upgradation and expansion in water supply and sanitation coverage Inter-linking of rivers Export potential 5

6 DI Pipe Industry Overview (Contd ) Initiatives taken by the government, which are favorable for the DI pipe industry: In order to provide basic services (e.g. water supply, sewerage, urban transport) to households in both urban and rural areas, the government has come out with a program named Atal Mission for Rejuvenation and Urban Transformation (AMRUT). One of the key purposes of this program is to provide each and every household with assured water supply and sewerage connection. Few of the work to be undertaken under the program are listed below: o Building water supply systems including augmentation of existing water supply, water treatment plants and universal metering o Rehabilitation of old water supply systems, including treatment plants o Rejuvenation of water bodies specifically for drinking water supply and recharging of ground water o Decentralized, networked underground sewerage systems, including augmentation of existing sewerage systems and sewage treatment plants o Rehabilitation of old sewerage system and treatment plants o Recycling of water for beneficial purposes and reuse of wastewater o Construction and improvement of drains and storm water drains in order to reduce and eliminate flooding 500 cities and towns will be taken under AMRUT. The total outlay for AMRUT is Rs. 50,000 crore for five years from FY16 to FY20. Additionally, to focus only on urban services, the government has launched the Smart Cities Mission, whereby it has allotted Rs. 100 crore for each smart city for a period of five years. The smart cities mission will also look at optimizing basic core infrastructure services such as clean drinking water supply, affordable housing etc. During 8th 11th five year plan, the investment in water supply and sanitation sector by the central and various state governments has increased by 18.5% CAGR. Moreover, the budgeted allocation for 12th plan stood at over Rs. 2,500bn, which is significantly higher than previous plan. Telangana water grid project: Telangana government in Sept. 2015, has initiated a mammoth water grid project with an estimated outlay of Rs. 350bn. The project is expected to be completed in next three years. The project aims to provide tapped water supply to the household and industries through a network of 1.25 lakh kilo meter water pipe line. Considering that 13% of the expenditure to be on DI pipes, the business of DI pipes is estimated to be Rs. 45.5bn. Recently, the Maharashtra government has approved an ambitious water grid plan with an outlay of Rs. 30bn to provide drinking water in all villages in eight Marathawada districts. The project is slated to be completed in three years. In the last five years, the DI pipe production has increased by 12% CAGR. On the back of huge investments in drinking water and sanitation projects, the demand of DI pipes is expected to be good. According to Tata Metaliks DI Pipes Ltd., the demand of DI pipes is expected to increase from 1.5mn tonnes in FY15 to 2mn tonnes in FY18, translating into a growth of 16.4% CAGR over the same period. While on the supply front, it is expected to increase by 11.4% CAGR over the same period to 1.7mn tonnes. 6

7 Investment Rationale: 1) Heavy push on improving water infrastructure: As DI pipes are finding increased acceptance among the customers, we feel that the sector is at a fine position to grab the demand arising from key flagship programs such as AMRUT, Smart Cities, Telangana water grid project and Maharashtra water grid projects etc. One of the key objectives of these projects is to enhance & improve the water pipeline network and supply tapped drinking water to the population. Around 26 cities in South India are covered in the Smart Cities program, while around 85 cities are covered under the AMRUT program. In the last five years, national DI pipe production has increased by 12% CAGR. On the back of huge investments in drinking water and sanitation projects, we anticipate a sustainable double digit growth the DI pipe demand. Over FY15-18, the demand of DI pipes is likely to increase from 1.5mn tonnes in FY15 to 2mn tonnes in FY18, translating into a growth of 16.4% CAGR. While on supply front, it is expected to increase by 11.4% CAGR over the same period to 1.7mn tonnes. SPL being a key player in the South India is expected to benefit from these programs. 2) Capacity expansion to aid volume growth: SPL has an installed MBF and DI pipe capacity of 0.275mn tonnes and 0.225mn tonnes, respectively. Currently, both the units are operating at full capacity. To meet the increasing demand, recently, the company has approved a capex plan of Rs. 1,000mn to augment the DI pipe capacity from mn tonnes to 0.3mn tonnes. The project is likely to be completed by the end of Sept MBF capacity will have a volume gain of 25,000-30,000 tonnes, mainly due to the setting up of the pulverized coal injection plant to its existing mini blast furnace. Earlier capex of Rs. 1,000mn in FY13 was used to increase the MBF capacity and remove the bottlenecks in the DI capacity. The full impact of this expansion will be seen in FY18, where the DI pipes sales volume is expected by 8.9% to 0.253mn tonnes. MBF and DI Pipe Capacity Expansion and Utilization Levels % % 90% % 70% % FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E MBF Capacity (mn tonnes) DI Pipe Capacity (mn tonnes) MBF Capacity Utilization (%) DI Pipe Capacity Utilization (%) 3) Market leader in South and West India: SPL is a dominant player in South and West India, with a market share of around 75%. On a pan India basis, it has a market share of around 10 11%. The company along with other group companies has a total market share of around 33-36% in the Indian DI pipe industry. The absence of major competitors in the South India is likely to ease the competitive pressure on SPL. Thus with robust outlook of DI pipes and the capacity expansion plans, the company is better placed to capture the incremental demand and defend its dominant position in the industry. Company Name DI Pipe Capacity (mn tonnes) Manufacturing Site Srikalahasti Pipes Ltd. 0.2 Andhra Pradesh Electrosteel Castings Ltd. 0.3 Jharkhand Electrosteel Steels Ltd. 0.2 Jharkhand Electrotherm (India) Ltd. 0.2 Gujarat Jai Balaji Industries Ltd. 0.2 West Bengal, Chhattisgarh, Odisha and Jharkhand Jindal Saw Ltd. 0.5 Gujarat Sathavahana Ispat Ltd. 0.2 Andhra Pradesh Tata Metaliks DI Pipes Ltd. 0.1 West Bengal 7

8 Investment Rationale (Contd ) 4) Strong order book: As of FY16 end, SPL had a DI pipes order book of Rs bn, which is around 1.2x times to the trailing 12 months revenue. Order book comprises of Rs. 10bn from Telangana state and rest from others. Already the company has executed around Rs. 3bn of the Telangana project, while the rest Rs. 7bn, which is accounted in the current order book is likely to be executed in a year time i.e. by FY17 end. A strong order book, assures the revenue and cash flow generation for the next 1.2 years. Current DI Pipes Order Book (Rs bn) Composition Telangana Project Overview (Rs. 10bn) 30% 46.2% 53.8% 70% Telangana Project Other Projects Completed Pending 5) One of the low cost producer DI pipe manufacturers in India: Over the years, SPL has taken various cost reduction measures such as reduction in coke consumption, usage of iron ore fines as compared to iron ore lumps, reduction in power consumption and effective utilization of sinter plant. High raw material in the past has affected the performance of the industry. With the recent correction in the raw material prices, cost of production has drastically declined for the industry. SPL with its integrated operations was able to reduce the cost of production relatively better as compared to other players in the industry. Going forward, we feel that with the increased pricing power and further improvement in operating efficiency, SPL is likely to sustain its position as a low cost producer of DI pipes in India. Cost of Raw Material as a % of Net Sales (%) Company Name FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 Srikalahasti Pipes Ltd. 68.6% 59.1% 55.0% 44.7% Electrosteel Castings Ltd. 50.2% 48.1% 49.3% 44.6% Electrosteel Steels Ltd % 82.0% 72.7% 67.8% Jai Balaji Industries Ltd. 78.4% 76.2% 80.2% 87.1% Jindal Saw Ltd. 63.0% 55.9% 52.8% 56.1% Sathavahana Ispat Ltd. 78.6% 85.3% 80.1% 78.3% 8

9 Investment Rationale (Contd ) EBITDA Margin (%) Company Name FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 Srikalahasti Pipes Ltd. 6.0% 11.8% 17.1% 23.3% Electrosteel Castings Ltd. 12.7% 13.1% 12.8% 13.3% Electrosteel Steels Ltd % -10.3% 0.7% 4.2% Electrotherm (India) Ltd. (*) 2.5% -46.9% -8.4% 6.3% Jai Balaji Industries Ltd. -5.2% 1.3% -2.1% -13.0% Jindal Saw Ltd. 8.9% 9.6% 10.8% 9.8% Sathavahana Ispat Ltd. 11.7% 3.0% 9.7% 6.9% Tata Metaliks DI Pipes Ltd. -8.8% 0.6% 8.4% 17.0% Source: "*" Only special steel division; Choice Broking Research EBIT Margin (%) Company Name FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 Srikalahasti Pipes Ltd. 3.4% 9.0% 14.3% 20.9% Electrosteel Castings Ltd. 10.3% 10.9% 9.9% 10.3% Electrosteel Steels Ltd % -23.5% -10.3% -3.6% Electrotherm (India) Ltd. (*) -17.7% -61.2% -25.4% -10.7% Jai Balaji Industries Ltd % -6.0% -11.0% -23.1% Jindal Saw Ltd. 5.7% 4.8% 6.8% 5.6% Sathavahana Ispat Ltd. 8.6% 0.5% 7.2% 3.0% Tata Metaliks DI Pipes Ltd % -2.4% 5.3% 13.9% Source: "*" Only special steel division; Choice Broking Research 6) Higher demand to derive top-line, stable material cost to ease pressure on the profitability: With DI pipe demand growth outstripping supply, we anticipate a favorable pricing gain for a market leader like SPL. We expect the company to report a top-line growth of 9.3% CAGR over FY16-18 amounting to Rs. 13,689.5mn. DI pipe sales volume and realization to increase by 5.9% and 6.2% CAGR, respectively, during the same period. We believe that the prices of key raw materials, namely, iron, coking coal etc. have bottomed out. With uptick in the US economy and stability in the China, we anticipate a modest recovery in the raw material prices. Consequently, we see a relatively smaller increase in raw material cost as compared to the revenue growth. Total operating expenditure to increase by 9.1% CAGR with 10.2% CAGR rise in EBITDA to Rs. 3,233.7mn. EBITDA margin to expand by 36bps over FY16 to 23.6%. Reported PAT to increase by 9.6% CAGR over FY16-18 to Rs. 1,906.1mn, while PAT margin to report a modest expansion by 6bps to 13.9% during the period. 7) Strengthening balance sheet: Over FY13-16, SPL has generated an average operating cash flow of Rs. 1,600mn per year, while average free cash flow per year stood at Rs. 650mn. Additionally, efficient working capital management, mainly through drastic reduction in inventories days from 88 days in FY13 to 38 days in FY16, led to a lower requirement of funds. Thus, assisted with sustainable cash flow generation over the years, SPL s was able to reduce its debt levels and improve the debt equity ratio to 0.9 in FY16 from 2.2 in FY13. Over the same period, interest coverage ratio increased from 0.5 in FY13 to 5.7 in FY16. In FY16, the company has approved a capex of Rs. 1,800mn for various expansion projects. With sustainable operating cash flow of Rs. 2.2bn per year in FY17 and FY18, we feel that the company will be in a position to internally fund its future capex requirement. Further we forecast the debt equity ratio and interest coverage ratio to improve to 0.4 and 6.1, respectively, over FY Solid Operating and Free Cash Flow Generation Improving Financial Debt Profile 2,500 2, , ,000 1, , , , , , FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E Cash Flow from Operations (Rs. mn) Free Cash Flow (Rs. mn) 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 4, , , , , , FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E Total Debt (Rs. mn) Debt Equity Ratio Interest Coverage Ratio

10 Recent Quarterly and Annual Financial Performance: Recent Quarter Analysis: During Q4 FY16, SPL reported 4.5% Y-o-Y rise in total operating income to Rs. 3,150.5mn, which may be mainly due to higher sales volume and realization. Sequentially, it increased by 12.5%. Total operating expenditure was flat on a Y-o-Y basis, but sequentially it increased by 16.2%, mainly due to higher employee and other expenses. As a result, EBITDA increased by 21.5% Y-o-Y and 1.1% Q-o-Q to Rs mn. EBITDA margin expanded by over 3ppts Y-o-Y to 21.9%. Sequentially, it contracted by around 250bps. Depreciation charge declined by 39.1% Y-o-Y, primarily due to the charge of excess depreciation in Q4 FY15. With flat levels of interest charge and lower effective tax rate, the company reported 55.7% Y-o-Y increase in reported PAT to Rs mn. PAT margin expanded by 480bps to 14.6%, while it contracted sequentially by 15bps. Quarterly Financial Performance Quarterly Operational Performance 3,200 2,400 1, , , , , , Q4 FY15 Q1 FY16 Q2 FY16 Q3 FY16 Q4 FY16 Total Operating Income (Rs. mn) EBITDA (Rs. mn) Reported PAT (Rs. mn) % 24.4% 22.7% 24.3% % 21.9% % 20.0% % 14.8% 14.6% 15.0% 9 9.8% % 10.0% % 7 0.0% Q4 FY15 Q1 FY16 Q2 FY16 Q3 FY16 Q4 FY16 EPS (Rs.) EBITDA Margin (%) PAT Margin (%) Recent Annual Result Analysis: Primarily on the back of higher sales volume, SPL reported a 5.7% rise in total operating income to Rs. 11,456.1mn. Lower raw material prices during the year, mainly led to a 2.1% fall in total operating expenditure. As a percent of total operating income, cost of revenue declined to 44.7% in FY16 from 55% in FY15. However, the positive impact of lower raw material prices were partially offset by higher employee expenses and other expenses. Consequently, EBITDA declined by 2.1% to Rs. 2,664.8mn. EBITDA margin expanded by over 6ppts to 23.3% in FY16. With lower interest charge and effective tax rate, the company reported a PAT of Rs. 1,588mn. PAT margin expanded by 628bps to 13.9% in FY16. Annual Financial Performance Annual Operational Performance 14,000 13,000 12,000 11,000 10,000 9, % 11.8% 10, , , % 17.1% 7.6% 23.3% 23.7% 23.6% 12, % 13, % FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E Total Operating Income (Rs. mn) EBITDA Margin (%) Reported PAT Margin (%) 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% % % 28.0% % % % % % 26.8% 25.9% FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E 40% 30% 20% 10% EPS (Rs.) DPS (Rs.) RoE (%) RoCE (%) 10

11 Quarterly and Financial Performance (Contd ) Expectations for FY16E and FY17E: On the back of huge demand from the water infrastructure, SPL is likely to operate at a full capacity. The company is likely to report a 3% and 10% increase in DI pipes sales volume and sales realization, respectively in FY17. The DI pipe capacity expansion is likely to be completed in the second half of FY17, thus the full impact is likely to be seen in FY18. Consequently, the DI pipe sales volume is expected to increase by 8.9% in FY18. Top-line to increase by 8.1% and 10.6% in FY17 and FY18, respectively to Rs. 12,380.9mn and 13,689.5mn. Higher employee cost and other operating expenses to result in 7.4% and 10.7% increase in total operating expenditure. As a result, EBITDA is forecasted to increase by 10.2% each in FY17 and FY18. EBITDA margin to remain in the range of 23.5%. Higher finance cost to result in 13.5% and 13.9% rise in net profit in FY17 and FY18, respectively to Rs. 1,666.5mn and Rs. 1,906.1mn. PAT margin to remain stable at 13.9% during the period. With sustainable cash flow generation, debt equity ratio to improve further to 0.64 and 0.45 in FY17 and FY18, respectively. Risk and Concerns: Subdued economic recovery: We are anticipating a recovery in the economic performance, which will result in increased spending towards water infrastructure, thereby improving the DI pipe demand. Moreover, the industry level capacity utilization is also likely to recover. Lower than expected economic growth to limit the growth in the DI pipe industry. Increase in competition: Currently SPL is enjoying a dominant market position in the South and West India. Anticipating huge growth opportunities in the region, many other players might get attracted, which will increase the competition for the company, putting pressure on profitability. Rise in raw material prices: We feel the commodity prices, especially, iron ore have bottomed out. Moreover, with uptick in the US economy and stability in the China, we anticipate a modest recovery in the raw material prices going forward. Thus any unexpected increase in the raw material prices will impact the profitability of the company. 11

12 Peer Group Valuation Companies CMP (Rs.) MCAP (Rs.mn) ; Ace Equity Stock Return (%) 1M 3M 6M 12M Installed DI Pipe Capacity (mn tonnes) LTM Revenue (Rs. mn) LTM EBITDA (Rs. mn) LTM PAT (Rs. mn) LTM EBIDTA Margin (%) LTM PAT Margin (%) Srikalahasti Pipes Ltd , % 3.8% 17.3% 26.5% , , , % 13.9% Electrosteel Castings Ltd , % 6.8% -9.2% 0.3% , ,881.8 (332.2) 13.6% -1.6% Electrosteel Steels Ltd , % -17.3% -13.2% -25.7% , ,096.6 (3,265.5) 4.4% -13.0% Electrotherm (India) Ltd % -9.1% 81.1% 211.2% ,005.6 (197.4) (1,798.6) -0.9% -8.6% Jai Balaji Industries Ltd % -0.1% 15.7% -10.5% ,029.0 (1,590.2) (6,898.0) -13.2% -57.3% Jindal Saw Ltd , % 21.9% 0.8% -18.6% , ,495.7 (464.8) 10.0% -0.6% Sathavahana Ispat Ltd , % 37.9% 65.8% 82.3% , (343.5) 6.0% -2.9% Tata Metalliks Ltd , % 221.8% 260.4% 236.8% , , , % 9.4% Companies FV (Rs.) EPS (Rs.) ; Ace Equity BVPS (Rs.) DPS Debt Equity Asset Turnover RoE (%) RoCE (%) P / E (Rs.) Ratio (x) Ratio (x) (x) P / B (x) EV / EBITDA (x) MCAP / Sales (x) MCAP / Tonne (Rs.) Srikalahasti Pipes Ltd % 26.1% ,068.2 Electrosteel Castings Ltd. 1 (0.9) % 6.6% (22.4) ,516.7 Electrosteel Steels Ltd. 10 (1.4) % -1.0% (2.2) ,977.1 Electrotherm (India) Ltd. 10 (156.7) (1,051.7) 0.0 (2.5) % -30.0% (0.5) (0.1) (156.1) 0.0 4,165.9 Jai Balaji Industries Ltd. 10 (88.7) (112.8) 0.0 (3.5) % -19.5% (0.1) (0.1) (19.9) 0.1 2,916.5 Jindal Saw Ltd. 2 (1.5) % 4.5% (34.6) ,188.9 Sathavahana Ispat Ltd. 10 (6.7) % 4.7% (11.7) ,160.2 Tata Metalliks Ltd % 66.5% ,910.5 With the above list of peers, around 90% of the India DI pipes capacities are covered. Jindal Saw Ltd. is the market leader with around % market share. Tata Metalliks Ltd. through its subsidiary Tata Metalliks DI Pipes Ltd. is engaged into the manufacturing of DI pipes. Except SPL and Tata Metalliks Ltd., all other peers are loss making on a net basis. Why SPL is superior to its peers: Market leader in South India and West India with a market share of around 75%. Likely to the key beneficiary of the water projects in South and West India. Pan India market share of 10 11% Backward integrated operations One of the low cost producer of DI pipes in India One of the highly efficient company in the industry Most profitable company in the industry since last 2-3 years 12

13 Valuation: Based on the operating assumption mentioned below, we estimate SPL s total operating income to grow at 9.3% CAGR over FY16-18 to Rs. 13,689.5mn, while PAT to grow at 9.6% CAGR over the same period to Rs. 1,906.1mn. On the back of huge investments in drinking water and sanitation projects, the demand of DI pipes is expected to be good. SPL is augmenting its DI pipe capacity to meet the user demand. At CMP of Rs , the company s share is trading at TTM P/E multiple of 7.1x. Additionally, SPL is trading at a P/BVPS and EV/EBITDA multiple of 2.6x and 5.7x, respectively. Based on an EV/EBITDA multiple of 5.7x to FY18E EBITDA, we arrive at a target price of Rs per share, translating into a potential gain of 35.3%. Thus we recommend a BUY rating on the stock. Key Operating Assumptions Assumptions FY17E FY18E Molten Metal/Pig Iron Capacity (mn Tonnes) Capacity Utilization (%) 100.0% 90.0% Production (mn Tonnes) Sales Realization per Tonne of Pig Iron (Rs.) 2, ,685.0 Total Iron Ore Consumption (mn tonnes) Total Coking Coal Consumption (mn tonnes) DI Pipe Capacity (mn Tonnes) Capacity Utilization (%) 103.0% 84.2% DI Pipe Production (mn Tonnes) DI Pipe Sales Volume (mn Tonnes) Sales Realization per Tonne of DI Pipes (Rs.) 46, ,920.2 Cement Capacity (mn Tonnes) Capacity Utilization (%) 81.6% 82.4% Production (mn Tonnes) Sales Volume (mn Tonnes) Cement Sales Realization per Tonne (Rs.) 2, ,954.2 Coke Capacity (mn Tonnes) Capacity Utilization (%) 94.6% 101.8% Production (mn Tonnes) Sales Volume (mn Tonnes) Coke Sales Realization per Tonne (Rs.) 19, ,200.3 Tax Rate (%) 26.3% 26.3% 13

14 Standalone Financial Statement Profit and Loss Statement Rs. mn FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E Net Sales 8, , , , , ,689.5 Other operating Income Total Operating Income 8, , , , , ,689.5 Cost of Material Consumed (5,658.7) (5,443.7) (5,320.4) (4,831.3) (5,106.6) (5,454.3) Purchase of Stock in Trade (103.8) (550.4) (533.9) (287.0) (317.3) (352.3) Changes in the Inventories (162.6) (103.5) (2.1) Employee Benefit Expenses (379.9) (443.6) (497.0) (714.6) (804.8) (958.3) Other Expenses (1,818.6) (2,430.2) (2,524.5) (2,956.2) (3,219.0) (3,696.2) EBITDA , , , , ,233.7 Depreciation and Amortization Expenses (221.8) (279.4) (311.7) (270.9) (288.9) (312.3) EBIT , , , ,921.5 Finance Cost (604.2) (549.0) (436.9) (420.5) (528.0) (480.7) Other Income PBT (213.3) , , , ,586.1 Tax Expenses 82.3 (27.2) (372.5) (558.8) (594.5) (680.0) Reported PAT (131.0) , , ,906.1 Balance Sheet Statement Rs. mn FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E Share Capital Reserves and Surplus 1, , , , , ,999.5 Long Term Borrowings 1, , , , Deferred Tax Liabilities (Net) Other Long Term Liabilities Long Term Provisions Short Term Borrowings 2, , , , , ,925.0 Trade Payables 1, , , Other Current Liabilities , ,201.4 Short Term Provisions Total Liabilities 9, , , , , ,688.0 Tangible Assets 4, , , , , ,295.1 Intangible Assets Capital Work in Progress ,078.3 Long Term Loans and Advances Current Investment , , ,855.6 Inventories 2, , , , , ,560.5 Trade Reveivables 1, , , , , ,415.3 Cash and Bank Balances Short Term Loans and Advances Other Current Assets Total Assets 9, , , , , ,

15 Standalone Financial Statement (Contd ) Cash Flow Statement Particulars FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E Profit Before Tax (213.3) , , , ,578.8 Interest & Financial Charges Depreciation / Amortization Change in Working Capital 1, (608.0) (429.0) (282.1) (164.8) Others (173.3) (233.9) (95.4) Tax Expenses (558.8) (594.5) (678.1) Cash Flow From Operations Activities 1, , , , , ,433.5 Purchase of Fixed Assets (1,059.9) (251.0) (748.3) (400.0) (836.9) (925.4) Change in Investments (1,460.2) 97.4 (384.4) Change in Loans & Advances (101.9) Interest Income Others (8.2) Cash Flow from Investing Activities (1,059.6) (250.7) (728.1) (1,633.9) (611.5) (1,316.3) Borrowings (Net) (233.5) (171.7) (315.7) (359.9) (359.9) Finance Costs (601.3) (544.6) (435.9) (420.5) (528.0) (480.7) Dividend Paid (59.6) (198.8) (198.8) (198.8) Others (10.1) (29.8) (29.8) (29.8) Cash Flow from Financing Activities (834.8) (716.3) (821.4) (420.2) (1,116.5) (1,069.2) Net Cash Flow (42.9) (377.0) Opening Balance of Cash & Cash Balance Closing Balance of Cash & Cash Balance Consolidated Financial Ratios FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E Profitability & Return Ratios EBITDA Margin (%) 6.0% 11.8% 17.1% 23.3% 23.7% 23.6% PAT Margin (%) -1.5% 3.9% 7.6% 13.9% 13.5% 13.9% RoNW (%) -6.8% 17.2% 28.0% 37.1% 29.1% 25.7% RoCE (%) 4.3% 13.1% 21.6% 27.3% 26.8% 25.9% Working Capital & Liquidity Ratios Current Ratio (X) Quick Ratio (X) Interest Coverage Ratio Turnover & Leverage Ratios Fixed Asset Turnover (X) Total Asset Turnover (X) Debt Equity Ratio (X) Dividend Pay Out Ratio 0.0% 0.0% 8.5% 14.4% 13.7% 12.0% Valuation Ratios DPS (Rs.) BVPS (Rs.) EPS (Rs. Cr) (3.3) P / E (X) (86.0) P / BVPS (X) EV / EBITDA (X)

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