Ryo Hattori, Nisshin Steel Co., Ltd. Fundamental problems of the Asian Stainless Steel Market & the Recovery of the Japanese Stainless Steel Market
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1 Ryo Hattori, Nisshin Steel Co., Ltd. Fundamental problems of the Asian Stainless Steel Market & the Recovery of the Japanese Stainless Steel Market 1
2 Summary World & Asian Stainless Steel Production China: Driving force of World stainless production Stainless Steel Trade Flow Trade Friction Anti Dumping Raw Materials NPI (Nickel Pig Iron) Indonesian Ban Conclusions Recovery of the Japanese Stainless Steel Market 2
3 World & Asian Stainless Steel Production 3
4 World Stainless Steel Production ( ) Source: ISSF 4
5 China : Driving force of World Stainless Production 2013 Production 19 Million Tons 50% of World Stainless Production 2 Million Tons Export App. 3 Million Tons Excess Capacity CAGR 2011/ % 2012/ % 5
6 Stainless Production 2012 vs Crude Steel Equivalent Mil Tons 8.8 Mil Tons 16 Mil Tons 19 Mil Tons 35.4 Mil tons 38.1Mil tons European Union Americas Asia w/o China China Others Source: ISSF 6
7 Stainless Production 2012 vs Crude Steel Equivalent CAGR +0.8% CAGR +18% 35.4 Mil tons 38.1Mil tons European Union Americas Asia w/o China China Others Source: ISSF 7
8 Stainless Steel Trade Flow 8
9 Stainless Steel Trade Flow 2013 from ASIA EASTERN & WESTERN EUROPE 6,395 Unit : Thousand tons NAFTA + LATIN AMERICA 613 MIDDLE EAST 0 ASIA 4,654 AFRICA 11 2,160 exported from ASIA OTHERS 1 Source: ISSF Stainless Steel in Figures
10 Stainless Steel Trade Flow 2013 to ASIA EASTERN & WESTERN EUROPE 6,395 Unit : Thousand tons NAFTA + LATIN AMERICA 613 MIDDLE EAST ASIA 4,654 AFRICA imported into ASIA OTHERS 1 Source: ISSF Stainless Steel in Figures
11 Free Trade, No Friction? Impossible! Surplus go for Export Abuse Anti Dumping Action 11
12 Trade Friction Anti Dumping 12
13 Stainless Steel Trade Friction - 1 Cold Rolled Sheet & Coil (Filed: Jul 1998 Final: Jul 1999 Extended Until Jul 2016 ) Taiwan AD Margin % Korea AD Margin % Japan AD Margin % USA Second Sunset Review 13
14 Stainless Steel Trade Friction - 2 Cold Rolled Sheet & Coil (Filed: Jun 1999, Final: Dec 2000 ) Korea Japan Sunset Apr 2011 Price Under Taking or 57% AD Margin 17-58% China 14
15 Stainless Steel Trade Friction - 3 Cold Rolled Sheet & Coil (Filed: Feb 2002, Final: Mar 2003 ) Taiwan Korea Japan AD Margin % AD Margin 50.99% AD Margin % Thailand Second Sunset Review 15
16 Stainless Steel Trade Friction - 4 Cold Rolled Sheet & Coil (Filed: Aug 2012, Final: Dec 2013 ) China AD Margin % Thailand 16
17 Stainless Steel Trade Friction -5 Cold Rolled Sheet & Coil (Filed: Nov 2008, Final: Nov 2009 ) China Taiwan Korea South Africa Thailand EU India USA AD Margin $ $2,254.69/MT 17
18 Stainless Steel Trade Friction 6 Hold Rolled Coil (Filed: Apr 2010, Final: Oct 2011 ) EU South Africa USA Taiwan AD Margin $0 - $649.55/MT AD Margin $ $1,130.28/MT AD Margin $165.32/MT AD Margin $ $683.95/MT India 18
19 Stainless Steel Trade Friction - 7 Cold Rolled Sheet & Coil (400 Series) (Filed: Aug 2010 Final: Nov 2011 ) EU Korea USA India AD Margin Differences between Standard Price ($1.491/Mt) 19
20 Stainless Steel Trade Friction - 8 Hold Rolled Coil (Filed: Mar 2014 Under investigation ) China Korea Malaysia India Investigation Period Apr 2012 Jun
21 Stainless Steel Trade Friction - 9 Cold Rolled Sheet & Coil (Filed: Jul 2012, Final: Mar 2014 ) China Korea AD Margin % AD Margin % Taiwan 21
22 Stainless Steel Trade Friction - 10 Cold Rolled Sheet & Coil (Filed: Mar 2009, Final: Nov 2010 ) China Taiwan Korea South Africa Brazil Russia AD Margin % 22
23 Stainless Steel Trade Friction - 11 Cold Rolled Sheet & Coil (Filed: Dec 2011, Final: Oct 2013 ) China Taiwan Korea Vietnam Germany Finland Brazil AD Margin $ $1,076.86/MT 23
24 Stainless Steel Trade Friction - 12 Cold Rolled Sheet & Coil (Filed: May 2013, Final: Dec 2013 ) China Taiwan Indonesia Malaysia AD Margin % AD Margin % AD Margin 12.03% AD Margin 14.38% Vietnam 24
25 Stainless Steel Trade Friction - 13 Cold Rolled Sheet & Coil (Filed: Dec 2007, Withdrawn: Apr 2009 ) China Taiwan Korea Case Closed EU 25
26 Stainless Steel Trade Friction - 14 Cold Rolled Sheet & Coil (Possibly) China Taiwan EU EU Monitoring Import Volume 26
27 Raw Materials 27
28 Nickel & Chrome Resources Nickel : Indonesia & Philippines Chrome : South Africa Source: Heinz H. Pariser 28
29 NPI (Nickel Pig Iron) 29
30 Indonesian Ore & Chinese Nickel Production 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% World Nickel Ore KT Ni Chinese Nickel Production % % 10% 0% 775kt Salphides Laterites Others Laterites Indonesia Conventional Jiuchuan NPI Phillippines ore Conventional Others NPI Indonesian ore Source: Macquarie Research 30
31 NPI : Innovation of SUS production Rotary Kiln SAF Source: SMR, TSING HIANG GROUP 31
32 Indonesian Ban 32
33 Indonesian Export Ban Jan 2014 Unprocessed Nickel products (Ni content < 4%) Laterite Ore 33
34 LME Nickel Price rose 50 over % in 2014 Source: Macquarie Research 34
35 Will Indonesia stick the Ban? Low margin for Laterites ore export 50% of Laterites deposits in Indonesia Philippines Limonite Ore ( %Ni) not fit RKEF (Rotary Kiln + Electric Arc Furnace) All political parties support the Ban after May 2014 Election Jul 2014 Presidential Election Japan may file Indonesia to WTO 35
36 Indonesian NPI cost increase Higher labor costs Higher electricity costs Infrastructure investment (Port, Railways, Power plant, Civil engineering etc) Environmental assessment New projects take time 36
37 Indonesian Ban impact - 1 Indonesian Ban Ni Ore NPI LME Ni Mill s Profit Best Scenario Alloy surcharge Distributor Demand Mill Price End Demand Restocking SUS Market Price 37
38 Indonesian Ban impact - 2 Indonesian Ban Ni Ore NPI LME Ni Mill s Profit Most Likely Alloy surcharge Distributor Demand Mill Price End Demand Restocking SUS Market Price 38
39 Indonesian Ban impact - 3 Indonesian Ban Ni Ore NPI LME Ni SUS Market Price Worst Scenario Alloy surcharge Distributor Demand Mill Price Substitution Restocking SUS Market Price 39
40 Conclusions Stainless production surplus remains Moderate exports avoid trade friction Indonesian Ban may continue Nickel price may volatile NPI looses competitiveness Further price hike Substitution 300 series to 200 series, 400 series or. Solution Market development 40
41 Recovery of Japanese Stainless Market 41
42 Japanese Stainless Steel Market Positive Sign Abenomics Economic Stimulus Package - Cheaper Yen - Monetary easing - Stock market recovery - Wage rises Automotive industry Reconstruction demand - Great East Japan Earthquake Stable domestic demand, Restocking Tokyo Olympic 2020 Real estate market 42
43 Japanese Stainless Market Concern Consumer Tax increase Construction labor shortage Increased imported material Indonesian Ban Nickel price volatility Substitution 43
44 Thank you! 44
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