World Aluminium Trade Dynamics

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1 Shanker Gopalkrishnan, President, Madras Consultancy Group, India World Aluminium Trade Dynamics - - Changing contours of global aluminium exports

2 Special Note & acknowledgement The data and information presented herein have been collated from secondary data sources, primarily from Trade Map, International Trade Centre, Geneva This presentation is intended to provide the audience a flavour of the Trends in Global Trade in Aluminium. While every effort has been taken to gather and present reasonably accurate data, information & analysis, the author and Madras Consultancy Group do not accept any direct or indirect legal liability of any kind. Prior to undertaking any business or investment decisions, further detailed investigations / studies are recommended. This presentation remains MCG s intellectual property and no part may be reproduced or circulated without the prior permission of Madras Consultancy Group, 2 nd Floor, MN Plaza, 15/16, 3 rd Cross Street, Kasturba Nagar, Adyar, Chennai , India. Mail: admin@mcg.in Management Consultancy - Market Analysis - Global Consulting Skills 2

3 Trend in global export of select metals 600 US$ billion CAGR ( ) Iron & steel: 13.1% Aluminium: 9.5% Copper: 17.3% Iron and steel (HS Code 72) Aluminium & articles thereof (HS code 76) Copper & articles thereof (HS Code 74) Export of aluminium and articles grew at 9.5% per annum between 2002 and while iron & steel grew at 13.1% and copper at 17.3% Management Consultancy - Market Analysis - Global Consulting Skills 3

4 Definitions and our focus is on export of 7601 to HS code Description Term inology used in this presentation 7601 Unwrought alumimum Primary aluminium 7602 Aluminum waste and scrap Aluminium scrap 7603 Aluminum powders and flakes Aluminium powder Aluminum bars, rods and profiles (7604) & Aluminium tube and pipes (7608) Aluminium extrusions 7605 Aluminum wire Aluminum wire Aluminum plates, sheets and strip, of a thickness exceeding 0.2mm Aluminum foil of a thicknes not exceeding 0.2mm Aluminium FRP Aluminium foil Trade within the region refers to the trade taking place between countries within the same economic region / free trade area; for the purpose of analysing the trade within and outside the region in this presentation, we have considered & EU where significant aluminium trade takes place amongst the countries within the region External export refers to the export to countries outside the economic/free trade region Management Consultancy - Market Analysis - Global Consulting Skills 4

5 Global export of primary, scrap and downstream products of aluminium grew at a CAGR of 9.2% between 2002 & HS code 7601 to 7608 CAGR ( ) : 9.2% US$ billion HS code 7601 CAGR ( ) : 9.2% HS code 7601 to 7608 HS code 7601 Note : The above represents global export including trade within the region Management Consultancy - Market Analysis - Global Consulting Skills 5

6 Share of primary aluminium declined by 3% between 2002 and Global exports : Aluminium and downstream products (HS code 7601 to 7608) Waste & scrap 7% to % FRP & foil (7604 & 7608) 29% Wire & powder (7603 & 7605) 6% Unwrought aluminium 44% Waste & scrap 9% to % Extrusions (7606 & 7607) 65% US$ 61 bn. Unwrought aluminium 41% Waste & scrap 10% 7603 to % Unwrought aluminium 41% Note : Includes trade within the region Management Consultancy - Market Analysis - Global Consulting Skills 6

7 & : Export within & outside the region ()... Trade within the member countries of and region is significant, and an attempt has been made to analyse the trade flows excluding the trade within these two regions 100% 90% 80% % 60% Outside the region 50% 40% 30% 20% Within the region 10% 0% Source: Trade Map Management Consultancy - Market Analysis - Global Consulting Skills 7

8 GCC has emerged as the leading exporter of primary aluminium... Primary aluminum (HS code: 7601): Export outside the region 2002 Total external export : US$ 15.9 bn. Total external export : US$ 35.4 bn. 35% 2% 4% GCC 6% Russia 18% 29% 2% 3% GCC 20% 7% Iceland 3% Norway 12% Australia 13% 4% Iceland 5% Norway 9% Australia 10% Russia 18% Source: Trade map Management Consultancy - Market Analysis - Global Consulting Skills 8

9 Export of downstream products - FRP, Foil & Extrusions - Management Consultancy - Market Analysis - Global Consulting Skills 9

10 Trends in external export of aluminium FRP, Foil, Extrusions & Wire rod... US$ billion FRP, foil and extrusions: Export outside the region CAGR ( ) FRP : 12.5% Extrusions : 13.8% Foil : 9.7% FRP (7606) Extrusion & wire rod ( ) Aluminium FRP Aluminium extrusions Aluminium foil 8.2 Foil (7607) 7.4 Management Consultancy - Market Analysis - Global Consulting Skills 10

11 Aluminium FRP: Total export vs. external export in... Total global export : US$ 27.1 bn. Total external export: US$ 16.2 bn. Japan 4% 18% 44% 28% 26% 13% S. Korea 4% GCC 1% 16% S. Korea 7% Japan 6% 21% GCC 3% 9% Management Consultancy - Market Analysis - Global Consulting Skills 11

12 Composition of Aluminium FRP external export in 2002 and... Aluminium FRP (HS code: 7606): External export 2002 Total external export : US$ 5.0 bn. Total external export: US$ 16.2 bn. 35% 30% 28% 26% S. Korea 7% Japan 12% 9% GCC 5% 2% S. Korea 7% Japan 6% 21% GCC 3% 9% s contribution to FRP exports increased from US$ 0.1 bn. to US$ 3.5 bn. in Share of countries declined by about 4% while the region maintained its share of 9% of the external exports between 2002 and Management Consultancy - Market Analysis - Global Consulting Skills 12

13 Aluminium Foil: Total export vs. external in... Total global export: US$ 11.5 bn. Total external export : US$ 7.4 bn. 16% 26% 22% S. Korea 3% Japan 6% 22% 7% 46% S. Korea 5% Japan 9% 34% 4% Source: Trade map Management Consultancy - Market Analysis - Global Consulting Skills 13

14 Composition of Aluminium Foil export in 2002 and... Aluminium foil (HS code: 7607): External export 2002 Total external export: US$ 2.9 bn. Total external export : US$ 7.4 bn. 31% 36% 26% 22% S. Korea 7% Japan 17% 4% 5% S. Korea 5% Japan 9% 34% 4% Source: Trade map s contribution to foil exports increased from US$ 0.1 bn. to US$ 2.5 bn. in, more than a third of global external export Management Consultancy - Market Analysis - Global Consulting Skills 14

15 : Aluminium FRP and Foil export across regions in.. : Export by region () Aluminium FRP (7606) Total export (): US$ 3.5 bn. Aluminium foil (7607) Total export () : US$ 2.6 bn. GCC 7% Asia Pacific 53% Africa 12% 11% Rest of Europe 2% 11% Rest of America 4% Asia Pacific 55% GCC 9% Africa 3% 10% Rest of Europe 3% 16% Rest of America 4% Source: Trade map Management Consultancy - Market Analysis - Global Consulting Skills 15

16 s share of global external export of aluminium extrusions & wire rods has increased from 8% to 33% in the last 10 years... External export: Aluminum extrusions (HS code: ) 2002 Total external export: US$ 2.9 bn. Total external export: US$ 10.6 bn. 23% 5% 14% 4% 64% 8% 49% 33% Source: Trade map Management Consultancy - Market Analysis - Global Consulting Skills 16

17 World aluminium usage 2007 World aluminium usage: 51.2 mn. tonnes World aluminium usage : 60.7 mn. tonnes Rest of Asia Pacific 18% Middle East & Rest of Middle Africa Asia East & 3% Europe Pacific Africa Europe 27% 18% 4% 20% 29% Latin America 5% North America 18% Source: MBR 39% North America 14% Latin America 5% Usage of aluminium in increased from 15 million tonnes in 2007 to about 23.4 million tonnes in Management Consultancy - Market Analysis - Global Consulting Skills 17

18 In conclusion, some take-aways.. Global trade in aluminium has grown at a much higher growth rate than growth in consumption facilitated by the lowering of tariff barriers across the globe GCC has emerged as a major player in the primary aluminium trade has emerged as the leading player in downstream FRP, Foil & Extrusions perhaps, at the commodity end of each product group North America (FRP) and European Union (FRP, foil & extrusions) continue have significant share in downstream trade perhaps, a much greater share in the higher value products - however, this is under some threat as manufacturing technology improves in and other emerging markets Going forward, we believe that aluminium trade will continue to grow well and new sources for downstream products will appear in the emerging markets Management Consultancy - Market Analysis - Global Consulting Skills 18

19 Thank you! For further discussions Management Consultancy - Market Analysis - Global Consulting Skills 19

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