Outlook for Bulk Commodities John Barber Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics. bree.gov.au

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1 Outlook for Bulk Commodities John Barber Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics bree.gov.au

2 Overview Outlook for China Steel and iron ore markets Electricity and thermal coal

3 China s economy is still growing, albeit at lower rates. Investment remains a key driver of economic growth. Quarterly contribution to China s GDP growth %ytd 2-2 Mar-10 Dec-10 Sep-11 Jun-12 Mar-13 Dec-13 final consumption expenditure gross capital formation net exports Source: CEIC.

4 All forms of steel intensive investment are still growing, but at lower rates. Growth in China s fixed asset investment %ytd Manufacturing Railways Real estate Source: CEIC. Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14

5 Housing construction accounts for 30% of steel in China, in 2014 it has dropped after a tightening of credit availability. China s residential sales and starts Iron ore price dropped below US$90 per tonne Iron ore price dropped below US$90 per tonne Iron ore price dropped below US$90 per tonne 20 %yr Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Starts Sales Data is three month moving average of monthly growth rate. Source: CEIC. bree.gov.au

6 China s steel production is increasing, but consumption in 2014 is down. China steel production Mt Source: CEIC. Mar 10 Dec 10 Sep 11 Jun 12 Mar 13 Dec 13 Crude steel production Trend bree.gov.au

7 And China s steel industry is not performing well. China steel industry profitability Million RMB Jan 11 Jul 11 Jan 12 Jul 12 Jan 13 Jul 13 Jan % Monthly industry profit % loss making firms (rhs) Source: CEIC. bree.gov.au

8 Looking forward -highly populated emerging economies are still urbanising and growing. Relationship between urbanisation and GDP per capita GDP per capita (ppp basis, current price) India China USA Australia Sources: World Bank, IMF % urban population

9 Most emerging economies are yet to reach peak steel use. Peak steel intensity since Korea 2008 Consumption per capita (kg) Vietnam 2013 China 2013 Thailand 2013 United States 1973 Japan 1990 Germany 2007 India 2013 Sources: World Bank, World Steel Association GDP per capita (US$)

10 Intra-city transport systems remain under-developed in China. Rail Transport Systems in metropolitan Centres km per million people Source: RBA bree.gov.au

11 China s iron ore imports are increasing, so is Australia s market share China iron ore import volumes Mt Jan 10 Jul 10 Jan 11 Jul 11 Jan 12 Jul 12 Jan 13 Jul 13 Jan 14 Jul 14 Australia Brazil other Source: Bloomberg.

12 Growth in imports is resulting in higher iron ore inventories though China port inventories Mt Jan 13 Apr 13 Jul 13 Oct 13 Jan 14 Apr 14 Jul 14 Source: Bloomberg.

13 And resulted in lower prices. Iron ore prices cycles are common, but the trend is clearly for lower prices. Iron ore price cycle US$/t 40 Previous Ports Australia conference Source: Bloomberg Jan 09 Oct 09 Jul 10 Apr 11 Jan 12 Oct 12 Jul 13 Apr 14

14 Lower prices, but Australia s iron ore production will continue to grow. Australia annual iron ore production Mt z 2019z Sources: Company Reports; BREE.

15 But growth in metallurgical coal exports will slow, most large scale projects are complete. Australia s metallurgical coal production Mt Source: BREE; Coal Services; company reports.

16 Thermal coal prices have been declining prior to China s recent standards policy and tariffs. Thermal coal spot prices US$/t 80 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Source: Bloomberg. Newcastle 6000kcal Richard's Bay 6000kcal QHD 5800kcal

17 Prices reflect oversupply rather than lower demand. Trade has almost doubled since the GFC, China s production up too. Major thermal coal exporters Mt Sources: BREE; IEA. South Africa Colombia Russia Australia Indonesia

18 Export market balance is unsustainable, too many producers are loss making. JFY contract price Current spot price

19 China s domestic industry is facing similar pressures. Official data has 30% of firms loss making, industry association estimates 70%. Chinese coal producer losses Billion RMB Source: CEIC. Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 loss value proportion of loss making firms (rhs) %

20 Emerging economies will be the driver of higher electricity consumption in the 21 st century. Per capita consumption currently very low compared to OECD. Electricity use and economic development Electricity use per person (kwh) China South Korea Japan US India GDP per person (2005 $US) Sources: IEA; World Bank.

21 Renewables may be the fastest growing energy source, but coal remains the largest. World electricity capacity under construction or approved GW coal hydro gas nuclear other renewables oil OECD Non-OECD Source: Enerdata,

22 Australia s thermal coal exports expected to increase to meet world demand. Australia s thermal coal exports Forecast Mt A$b Sources: ABS; BREE. volume value (rhs)

23 Key messages 1. Prices are lower, but commodities consumption will continue to grow as highly populated emerging economies improve their living standards. 2. The investment phase of Australia s mining boom is drawing to an end, but the production phase is just starting. 3. Reducing costs and increasing productivity will be the focus on the production phase to meet increasing international competition. 4. Infrastructure networks have an important role to play in achieving higher productivity and reducing costs.

24 Thank you John Barber Senior Economist Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics Department of Industry bree.gov.au

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