JAMES F. KING: TRENDS IN THE ALUMINIUM INDUSTRY

Transcription

1 !" #$"%"&'$() ""&*&"%+,-./.01 $23 $$$ 45"67$+3%( 1

2 #38988+$"$8&88 ("%:"$85($7( &+:85("$; 7$"&$"- < &!(5,""5, $=5",$&(+" &$&3(5$" $5$5&&5&(5&"& 2

3 Aluminium by End Use (capacity in million tonnes) Item m.t. % Transport % aerospace % automotive % Construction % Electrical % Packaging % Other % Total semi-finished % &!"&+"%+!3"&$8"$+" $+5,""5,"(5&$2:75$ "$"&2&,!$3$$5,""5, &5,!$"> &&$+/?72'5,@ &$5$":5$,$"':$"(!9%"%$+("'"%33$+ 5,""5,"(5&$2:!$"52"$+ ('!"%5$"&@ 3

4 Aluminium Industry and Aerospace (capacity in million tonnes) Item m.t. % Plate 1.19 aerospace % Sheet aerospace % Extrusions aerospace % Forgings 0.31 aerospace % Total semi-finished aerospace % &!"&'2",!$$"&,!(5$&>!$"52!$(3%"%&: ($+33&,!(5&$+$ &!""&"$+&!(5$&@ '3$+%&$&!!(5&: $+"&&$"&&,!$3$+"75&"&&: $0?3'5,35,""5,!(5$&@ 4

5 Aluminium for Aerospace - Top Companies, 2007 (million tonnes) Company Aero share of Total aero m.t. aero m.t. share Alcoa % % Rio Tinto Alcan % % Chalco % % Aleris % % Hindalco Novelis % % Kaiser % % Others % % Total % % Total Top % % *"$+""("'"(5!(5$&$$""& +"%+A 38!(5&(,"$&5!!2:!$"52"(!(5$&@ $$""(!(5$&+& "&(> 3&5,&; 5

6 Aluminium Plate - Top Companies, 2007 (000 tonnes) Total Aerospace Company m.t. % Company m.t. % Alcoa % Alcoa % Rio Tinto Alcan % Rio Tinto Alcan % Aleris % Aleris % Chalco % Chalco % Hindalco Novelis % Kaiser % Hydro Aluminium % Hindalco Novelis % Others % Others % Total % Total % Total Top % Total Top % Aluminium Extrusions - Top Companies, 2007 (000 tonnes) Total Aerospace Company m.t. % Company m.t. % Alcoa % Alcoa % Hydro Aluminium % Chalco % Sun Capital Partner % Rio Tinto Alcan % Elkem % Menziken % YKK % Hydro Aluminium % Rio Tinto Alcan % Creuzet % Others % Others % Total % Total % Total Top % Total Top % 6

7 B$5&"&$++5((&3 &5!!"&:75$ &"%"3"$"+(2&!(5$&3 "# )*)+, ( ' growth of China &,+!-,.+/ # 0 % mature western economies break-up of USSR $ reconstruction and western economic growth " World War I World War II " $ % # & ' ( " " " " 7

8 4 $%$" "$+ 00C&: $"%5($+",!$3+"A $%8$+"8(&5,!$"A / 0@? D.@<?.E@<? E <@0? Primary Aluminium: Supply/Demand Balance (million tonnes) Item Consumption Stock change Production Required capacity at 95% Committed capacity + creep Surplus capacity

9 10203* **)" "# )*)+, ( ' & # 3)**+/26)7+3*, % 30203* *30203*4 $ 6+56+/30203*4 " (# # " " # " " # " " " "# 4 %35$5=5",$&38 &,$"%!"$2$,$(,(> 7,&A $""$2'"7""$2(&$$$", 3%2&+$% +"%+!"$&$&38!"$2 +"%+"&9$"&3"'&$,$; 9

10 Primary Aluminium: Major Producing Countries (million tonnes) Country China CIS Canada USA Australia Brazil Others World Total Top share 60.0% 69.0% 61.5% 4 +""&8723$+8(C&%&$!(53!",25,""5,@ +"&=5",$&3,$ 3&$$"&&$%2"$$+%$,@ +B$$$8+"++"&!(5$",$+$+"&(,("&5"$$+!$$335$58(&5!!2@ 10

11 Primary Aluminium: CIS and China (million tonnes) Item CIS countries Consumption Production net exports China Consumption Production net exports > (5$"&$&$!",25,""5, &,$&$$",+"%+'&"( &$&$,%"&,$&"$+% 5&3$+&"63"$&"(5&$2:&$&$ 11

12 Primary Aluminium: Cost Structure of Smelting ($ per tonne of cold remelt ingot, FOB smelter, 2008 Q1) Item World Marginal USA China Raw Materials Energy Labour + administration Other operating costs Operating costs Total costs, cold metal Total costs + profit Major single cost items Alumina Electricity LME 3-months metal price > "&=5"(728&,$!F$&" &38!(5$"&$&:5&"% 5,"3,"$%$(!$"&&" 8&$&:75$G..@ $%%$+"&3"%58&G E@ 12

13 > +"&"$%$(!(5$","&,!$"$"'",!"&8"$+$+7&$ > ",2,$"&,F!$3$+&$: 75$$+&$3$&,",!$$ 13

14 Aluminium Plate : Cost Structure ($ per tonne of 6061 heat treated plate, FOB mill, 2008 Q1) Item USA Europe China Primary ingot + scrap Other Raw Materials Energy Labour + administration Other operating costs Operating costs Total costs LME 3-months metal price > +"&!(5$"&$&3(( B$5((!(5$&&"%"3"$28 +23!$$",F('$%:,$+5%+$3&$$&!$ &$&@ 14

15 +&$5$53,$&5!!2+&+%( $$""!",2,$&5!!2+&,"(&","> $+$!E,!"& +("%75$.?3!"$2:(&!"$$+ +5%%8$+3+":75$ Primary Aluminium - Top Companies, (million tonnes) Company m.t. % Company m.t. % Russia - state % Alcoa % Alcoa % UC Rusal % Alcan % Rio Tinto Alcan % Reynolds % Chalco % Pechiney % Hydro Aluminium % Kaiser % BHP Billiton % Others % Others % Total % % Total Top % Total Top % 15

16 Aluminium CR Coil - Top Companies, (million tonnes) Company m.t. % Company m.t. % Alcan % Alcoa % Alcoa % Birla Novelis % Russia - state % Hydro Aluminium % Reynolds % Rio Tinto % Kaiser % Aleris % Alusuisse % Chalco % Others % Others % Total % % Total Top % Total Top % $&5!!2"&8&&"$%$(:&,F,!"&$2$35&$+"7&$ &&$&:& &,,F&5!!"&3(!(5$& (B$5&"&+'"$$,$!(5$"@ +"&8",A 16

17 +35",!$3+%&$,9$!"&3!",2,$8"7!&&( (5&8"$78""%7$!"&!!(5$&"$"$ $+""$!(5$"&$&,!$"$""&"&"%"$+5,""5, &,$"%(&,"37"$"%"(5&$2: 8"$+%$,$+$3,!(5&" (5&8"7&&8""%7$ &!(H3&!!(5$&" $++!3+"%+,%"&"$+35$5:75$ 17

18 !(5&8"&9"+,9$& &5+&&!$'"(8,%"& 5,""5,8"82&7'"73$+ &!"(5&$2:8+"+8","!3(,9$:75$ $+&!"(5&$2,5&$B!$$!2$+35,9$!"3$+!(5$&:( $+&!"(5&$2,2($ 5%(!$8&5!!"&: ( $+&!"(5&$2,2($ &&"&$8"$+$+('!,$3 5,""5,!(5$&$,$"$&(&> $+,F5,""5,!(5&,2 %("$3$+,@ 18

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