The Outlook for the Chinese Refractories Industry in the Light of an Increase in Steel Production: a Bright Future?

Transcription

1 The Outlook for the Chinese Refractories Industry in the Light of an Increase in Steel Production: a Bright Future? LIU Jiehua ryljh@126.com Dongfang Refsource International Co., Ltd

2 1 General situation of China refractories in the last decades Refractories are important and basic materials for the national construction and for the industrialization of a country. Due to the development of the industries of steel, cement, glass, ceramics, chemicals, non-ferrous, machinery, foundry and etc., China refractories industry has been developing at a very fast step in the last decades.

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6 Percentage consumption of refractories for different industries 4% 4%5%4% 6% 10% 67% Steel Cement Glass Ceramics Non-fero Chemical Others

7 2 Fast Development of China s s Iron and Steel Industry in the last decades In the last two decades China s iron and steel industry has been developing rapidly due to the high-speed increase of China s economy, to largescale infrastructure construction, to the fast development of real estate and as well to the rapid growth of manufacturing industry.

8 The driving force of the steel output in China Development of western area; Transfering of natural gas from west to east; Transfering of electricity from west to east; Transfering of water from south to north; Vehicle manufacturing; Building of high way and high speed rail way ; Development of real estate; Revitalization of old industries in Northeast area ; Others

9 Total steel output of China and the world in 2005 to 2012 Source::<World Steel Association >

10 The percentage of Chinese steel output in world steel and steel per capita of China and world Chinese steel World steel per Chinese steel percentage in 年份 capita/kg per capita/kg World steel/% Source::<World Steel Association > <China steel Statistics Report>

11 China s s steel demand by end-user industries, in S teel co n su m p tio n (B y secto r) Rail, 549, 1% Power generation,280,0.6% Coal 1450, 3% Petroleum 635, 1.4% Shipbuilding, 1035, 2.2% Container, 560, 1.2% Light industry 3600, 7.7% Other % Construction % Auto, 1840, 4% Machinery 8000, 17%

12 3 How many tons of steel does China need? Usually the steel production is depending on the economic construction of a country, that is, mainly related with the factors such as population, per capita GDP and land area etc.

13 Reviewing the development process of some developed countries. USA, GB, France and Japan are industrialzed countries, though there are difference in population, in lasting period of large scale infrastructure construction and in absolute amount of total steel,they have a common characters, that is, their steel output increased after entering industrialization, and reached to a peak period, then to a stable period, followed by a sustainable period of several years. After completing of the infrastructure construction then come to the so called period of post industrialization, at which steel output decreased but held at a stable period.

14 Steel output change of USA and GB in the last 100 years

15 Steel output change of Japan and France in the last 100 years

16 Steel output change of China in the last 60 years

17 The historical steel consumption data can be used for forecast and mathematics model could be established to deduce data in future years.

18 Usually the steel output increase of a country is related with her accumulated steel output after reaching to peak period, which depends on population, land area and GDP of the country. The land area of USA and China is similar. The population of USA is less 1/4 of China s. GDP of USA is two times of China s. USA s s accumulated steel output reached to 7 billion ton in 2000, since then their annual steel output remain at about 90million ton, which could be deemed as at stable period. The accumulated steel output of China reached to nearly 8billion tons in 2013, which is estimated to reach over 13 billion tons in 2020 supposing annual steel output of about 0.8 billion tons is realized before entering into stable period.

19 The relation of steel output with per capita GDP China has entered into industrialization process; The strategic target of social economic development of China is that per capita GDP will reach USD in The basic mission of iron & steel industry is to guarantee the realization of the strategic target

20 4 How about refractories industry in the next decade, a bright future? The development of Refractories industry is mainly depending on the development of industries of steel, cement, ceramics, glass, non- ferrous, machinery and chemicals, and etc. and especially depending on steel industry. On the one hand, the total steel output would keep at sustainable increase but slow down speed according the above analysis.

21 China s steel output has been increasing but increase speed began to slow down since 2008

22 On the other hand, the specific unit consumption of refractories per ton steel will be decreased due to technology advancement of users industries and also to the continuous improvement of refractory products quality, as well as longer service life refractories come out year after year.

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24 From the above analysis it is estimated that the output of China refractories will keep an increase at slow speed in the future

25 The future development of China refractories will focus on the following aspects Optimization of structure Reconstruction of organization Adjustment of variety Speed up of technology advancement

26 Following products will be preferred to be developed Technology intensive products; High value added products; Multi function and long service life products; Environment friendly products

27 Concentration ratio has been enhanced and will be going on enhancing. Some giant refractories companies have and will come out by means of merging and consolidation, which are characterized by possessing more advanced equipment and instrument, more technology innovation and stronger competitive ability.

28 Challenge and opportunity co-exsit in China refractories industry Challenges from users industries improvement in facilities and rebuilding of steel industry ; Environmental protection; Low cost, quality consistent and custom-made products required; Outsourcing from end-users needing suppliers to provide construction of lining, maintenance and even facilities for the maintenance From internal of the sector Price war among refractories enterprises Cost increase in labor and in attracting, retaining, training of talents

29 Opportunity: World wide: world total steel output will go on increasing, especially in countries in Southern east Asia, middle east,south America and South Africa; World total cement, glass, non-ferrous, petrochemicals would also increase in the above mentioned areas. All the above mentioned sectors need refractories, in which China refractories should have more chance

30 Domestic Central government has issued policies as follows: Further open up and reform; GDP will keep increase at about 7% every year in the future; Urbanization will speed up; Economic construction needs: steel, cement, ceramics, glass, non-ferrous, chemicals, and etc. for which refractories are indispensable and basic materials.

31 They need large quantity of steel Foshan Mingzhun Stadium Guangzhou TV Tower Lasha Railway Station New CCTV Tower

32 Conclusion Bright future would be seen in China refractories industry if we could face the challenges and grasp the opportunities presented with the domestic and overseas development of steel industry.

33 References 1)Development report of China s s iron & steel industry. Ed. Luo Bingsheng. China Association of Iron & Steel Industry, ) Statistics report of China s s Iron & Steel, )Zhang Shourong, Annual Meeting of Chinese Society for Metals, Beijing 4)Liu Jiehua A Glimpse of Iron and Steel Industry of China in Recent Years. China s s Refractories, 2007, 15 (4): 7~13