Russia: Steel Market Developments

Transcription

1 Sep Sep Sep Sep Sep Sep Sep Industrial production growth rate Industrial producer s price index Industrial production, y-oy, % BCI, % Sep Sep Sep GDP & Houshold consumption, % Capital formation, % // OECD STEEL COMMITTEE Developments In World Steelmaking Capacity Russia: Steel ket Developments Anton Bazulev Steering-committee member of «Russian Steel», Head of external relations, NLMK Group Paris, Current Economic Situation In Russia GDP and its elements growth rates, y-o-y, % - - GDP Household Final Consumption Expenditure Capital formation Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Budget net surplus & export surplus, bn RUB Deficit period Budjet surplus Export surplus Industrial Production & Industrial Producer's Price index, y-o-y, % IP & Business Confidence Index (BCI) IP grouth rate, % y-o-y PPI growth rate, % y-o-y IP index BCI Sources: Metal-Expert, Metal Courier, Russian Statistics Agency, Ministry of Industry and Trade, Ministry of Economic Development --

2 - Feb- - Apr- - Jun- - Aug- Sep- Oct- - Dec- -9 Feb-9-9 Apr-9-9 Jun-9-9 Aug-9 Sep-9 Oct-9-9 Dec-9 - Feb- - Apr- - Jun- - Aug- Sep- Oct- - Dec- Feb- - Apr- Jun- Aug- Oct- - Dec- Feb- - - Feb- - Apr- - Jun- - Aug- Sep- Oct- - Dec- -9 Feb-9-9 Apr-9-9 Jun-9-9 Aug-9 Sep-9 Oct-9-9 Dec-9 - Feb- - Apr- - Jun- - Aug- Sep- Oct- - Dec- Feb- - Apr- Jun- Aug- Oct- - Dec- Feb- - // Russian Economy Growth Forecast Urals Oil Prices Forecast, USD/bl GDP Index Growth Rate Forecast, y-o-y, % Optimistic Basic Pessimistic -9 Optimistic Basic Low basic Pessimistic Industry Growth Rate, y-o-y, % Fixed Assets Investments (FAI), y-o-y, % Optimistic Basic Low basic Pessimistic Optimistic Basic Low basic Pessimistic Source: Ministry of Economic Development -- Russia Steel Industry Dynamics Production Volume & Consumption, mmt, 7, + 9%,,,,,,,,,,9,,,,,,,,,,9,,,,,,,,,,9,9,9,,9,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,7,9,,,,, + % Crude steel production Finished steel production Consumption Finished Steel Balance, mmt 7 - -,,,9,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,7,,,9,,,,,9,9,9,,,,,,,,,,,,,9,,,,, Finished steel production Export Import Consumption Sources: Russian Statistics Agency, Worldsteel, Federal Customs Service --

3 Volume, mmt Volume, mmt RUB/t, EXW, VAT excluded Volume, mmt Volume, mmt // Raw Materials ket Russian Steel Industry Self-sufficiency in Raw Materials (, mmt) Import Export Output Import, Export, Output,7 Apparent Domestic consumption Output Domestic Export, 9, consumption,9 Export, Import < Import iron ore Coke Scrap Raw Material Price Dynamics Output, Domestic consumption, - Feb- - Apr- - Jun- - Aug- Sep- Oct- - Dec- Feb- - Apr- Jun- Aug- Oct- - Dec- Feb- - Apr- - Iron ore Coke Pellets Scrap Sources: Metal Expert, Rasmin, NLMK research -- Production Forecast: Steelmaking Raw Materials, Iron Ore +% Coking Coal, +%, +9%,,,,,, 9 9, ,,, 7 9 (f) (f) Consumption Production, 7 9 (f) (f) Consumption Production, Scrap +7% HBI/DRI +% -%,,, (f) (f) Consumption Production 7 9 (f) (f) Production Sources: Strategy of Russian Steel Industry Development till, Ministry of Industry and Trade; MetalCourier, Chermet, AME --

4 - - Apr- Apr- - - Oct- Oct Apr-9 Apr Oct-9 Oct Apr- Apr- - - Oct- Oct- Apr- Apr- Oct- Oct- Apr- Apr Sep Sep Sep Sep Sep Sep // Russia Steel Consuming Sectors Output Dynamics Transport Machinery Production Index, y-o-y, % Pipes & Tubes Production Index, y-o-y, % Mechanical Engineering Production Index, y-o-y, % Automotive Industry Production Index, y-o-y, % Sources: Metal-Expert, Metal Courier, Russian Statistics Agency, Ministry of Industry and Trade -7- Steel Consuming Sectors Output Forecast Steel Industry Production Index Forecast, y-o-y, % E F F Ferrious metallurgy Pipes&Tubes Energy Machinery Production Index Forecast, y-o-y, % E F F Gas turbines Hydrotic turbines Transport Machinery Production Index Forecast, y-o-y, % E F F Transport machinery total Automotive Machinery Production Index Forecast, y-o-y, % E F F Machinery Source: Ministry of Economic Development, Russian Statistics Agency

5 Sep Sep Sep Steel consumption, mmt Sep Sep Sep New car sales mln. units Approximately mln per year +/- -% // Steel Consuming Sector Output Forecast Vehicle ket Forecast Initial growth.7.. Economic crisis. Stagnation ket growth Post-crisis development ket stabilization.. Economic crisis,,,,,,,,, Possibly one more crisis Imported Foreign brands in Russia Domestic OEMs Forecast Production of Vehicles, units Vehicles Production Index Forecast, y-o-y, % EFF Vehicles total Cars Trucks Vehicles total Cars Trucks Sources: Ministry of Economic Development, NLMK research; AEB; Autostat; PwC; ASM Holding -9- Steel consumption in Russia Steel Consumption & Steel Weighted Industrial Production - - SWIP, y-o-y % - Consumption SWIP Steel Consumption Breakdown by Sector, mmt Steel Consumption Breakdown by Sector, mmt Construction Construction Pipes & Tubes Pipes & Tubes Metalware Machinery % % Metalware Machinery % % Automotive Home appliancies Electrical machinery 7% % % % % % Automotive Home appliancies Electrical machinery % % % % % % Others Others Sources: Metal-Expert, Metal Courier, Russian Statistics Agency, Ministry of Industry and Trade; NLMK research --

6 Feb Apr Jun Aug Sep Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Sep Oct Dec Feb Apr Sept Sept Sept Sept // Steel Consumption in Russia Forecast Flat Product Consumption Forecast, mmt Long Product Consumption Forecast, mmt Production Export Import Apparent consumption Production Export Import Apparent consumption Coated Products Consumption Forecast, mmt Pipes & Tubes Consumption Forecast, mmt Production Export Import Apparent consumption Production Export Import Apparent consumption Sources: Ministry of Industry and Trade, NLMK research -- Russian steel industry competitiveness Global Slab Production Costs Capacity Utilization Rate, % $ $ $ $ $/t uary ch % 9% % $ $ $ Russia 7% % $ % $ $ % Cumulative capacities, m t Raw Material Prices, USD/t Ore, China Ore, Russia Scap, Russia Scrap, USA Coal, Russia Coal, China 9 World Russia Russian capacity utilization rate is notably higher than world average Factors behind high competitiveness of Russian steel industry: efficient production abundance and favorable pricing of raw materials high degree of vertical integration Sources: Russian Steel consortium; Metal Expert database; worldsteel, SMD analysis, Chermet, Russian Steel consortium --

7 // Russia OECD: mutually beneficial trade OECD countries are major destinations for Russian slab and pig iron exports Russian Semi-finished steel Exports, mmt Russian Pig Iron Exports, mmt 7 9,,,79,9,,9,97,7,7, 7 9 non-oecd OECD non-oecd OECD Modernization results in better environmental and efficiency industry performance Air Pollution From Stationary Sources, mmt 7, 7, Energy consumption, Gcal/t,,,,9,,7,,,,7,7,7,9,79,, 7 9,, Best available technology for BOF route Metallurgy Other Sources: UN Comtrade; Russian Statistics Agency; NLMK, MMK, Metalloinvest and Severstal research Industry average -- Russian steel industry: state-of-the-art technology 7

8 Machinrey 7 9 // OECD STEEL COMMITTEE Developments In World Steelmaking Capacity THANK YOU Anton Bazulev Steering-committee member of «Russian Steel», Head of external relations, NLMK Group Paris, Russia and EU in WTO Regime Quotas to the EU will be abandoned following the Russian accession of the WTO European steel industry voices concerns about possible inflow of Russian steel into the EU Russian Share in EU iron and steel imports -, mmt flats longs primary iron & semi-finished materials ЕU quota fill rate by Russian companies, % 9, 7, 7, 9, other Russia Russia under agreement pipes and tubes 7 9 Russia s steel export by main regions, mmt.,,,,,,,,, Middle East Asia EU (7) OECD North America EU export to Russia, bln. EUR Other E C.I.S.,,,,,,,, Steel Using quotas Machinery & mechanical appliances Vehicles other than railway Articles of iron or steel Electrical machinery & equipment Iron &Steel Source: Eurostat, IMF, Bloomberg, Statistics South Africa, NLMK research, Federal Customs Service --

9 // Russian Investments to the EU Steel Sector Verona Clabecq Dansteel Vitkovice Steel EVRAZ GROUP Palini e Bertoli Lucchini SEVERSTAL Ascometal Current capacities of Russian companies in the EU Product Capacity Steel 9, Plate 9 Flat-rolled Longs 9 Seamless pipes Metalware La Louviere Targoviste NLMK Mechel Strasbourg Ductil Steel Buzau TMK- Artrom TMK TMK- Resita Otelu Rosu Laminorul Braila Campia Turzii Russian steel companies are interested in keeping the EU market stable -7-9