Bauxite & Alumina Outlook: what does 2014 bring for the Upstream Sector

Transcription

1 Bauxite & Alumina Outlook: what does 2014 bring for the Upstream Sector Ron Knapp International Aluminium Institute 20 th Metal Bulletin Bauxite and Alumina Conference Miami February 2014

2 Bauxite & Alumina Outlook: What does 2014 bring for the Upstream Sector Global changes within the upstream sector Indonesia - how will the bauxite export laws be implemented and what will be the long term effect on the bauxite and alumina industries New global bauxite and alumina supply options Will this drive technology change?

3 Primary Production 1990

4 Primary Production 2012

5 Million tonnes Al 百万吨铝 Aluminium demand continues to be met from both primary & recycled sources Demand met from recycled Required primary 回收供给原铝需求

6 Aluminium Centroid the shift in global production (million tonnes )

7 Smelter Grade Alumina and the pull of China consumption

8 Global aluminium consumption continues to grow At rates faster than GDP in China and RoW (although some regions/countries below this trend) 2004 to 2012 average global growth rate of 6%/annum estimated as high as 7.5% annual growth with 2014 and 2015 hovering around the 8% mark.

9 Growth scenarios all reflect similar patterns 2020 forecasts of 70+ Mt demand for primary aluminium raises the next question; A 20+ Mt increase in primary requires 40+ Mt of additional alumina and 110 Mt of bauxite or equivalents Where does this come from? Does Indonesian bauxite need replacing as well? With bauxite... or with alumina?

10 Who s long/short in alumina by 2020? Australia and Brazil both long North America short Northern Europe (Iceland and Norway) short Russia short, depending on smelter start-ups Middle East short West Africa long (but no longer than today?) China: short/balanced; has capacity, but unknowns the two wild cards in the pack: Vietnam? Indonesia?

11 Bauxite supply dynamics by 2020? Australia: less alumina, more bauxite? Africa: Guinea, Ghana Central/South America: Brazil, Jamaica, Dominican Rep. Asia: Vietnam, Indonesia both with processing policy objectives/requirements Others including bauxite alternatives Access to bauxite to drive next phase of structural change in our industry and shifts in production centres?

12 Who has 2020 capacity in alumina? Coming out of mothballs? Jamaica? China has capacity... but does it have the bauxite and at what cost (low capex, high opex) A new alumina province in the Middle East? Ma aden is the first; UAE next? Indonesia has bauxite, and political interest, to develop Alternative sourced alumina from fly-ash and aluminous clays... and their commercialisation time-horizon?

13 China and RoW face similar structural change pressures... and interventions Government policies (regional, national and subnational) have been part of the development of greenfields and expansions in almost every country, reflecting the desire for industrial growth to deliver broader economic and social agendas... (and in many cases, to retain existing inefficient and high cost facilities for socio-economic reasons).

14 China alumina production a dramatic increase Alumina production from 3.8 Mt in 1999 to 36.6 Mt in 2012 and 42.8 Mt in 2013 (SGA) subject to revision now 45%+ of global SGA production (up from 40% in 2012).

15 Specific energy use (MJ/t Al 2 O 3 ) 能耗 ( 兆焦 / 吨氧化铝 ) Global SGA refining energy intensity 全球生产冶金级氧化铝单位能耗 16,000 15,500 15,000 14,500 Objective: 10% reduction in energy use per tonne of alumina produced for the industry as a whole by 2020 versus 目标 :2020 年生产氧化铝的单位能耗较 2006 年降低 10% 14,000 13,500 13,000 12,500 12, Data source: IAI + CNIA + CRU

16 China and Indonesia... and bauxite China imported 36 mt of bauxite from Indonesia in 2011, 31 mt in 2012 and 49 mt in 2013 Australian bauxite to China jumped from 8 mt in 2011, 10 mt in and 14 mt in 2013 Total China bauxite imports were 72 mt in 2013, up from 43 mt in But, how much was stock-piled?

17 Millions 0.8 China s recent alumina imports

18 Millions 8 China s recent bauxite imports

19 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 China s bauxite imports from Australia and Indonesia 7,000,000 6,000,000 5,000,000 4,000,000 3,000,000 2,000,000 1,000,000 - Australia Indonisia

20 China bauxite demand triggers global changes Indonesian cessation of bauxite exports from 12 th January 2014 a policy objective towards the establishment of a domestic alumina industry will the Indonesian policy be fixed or flexible? where can replacement bauxite be found? existing supply sources, new options?

21 Indonesian alumina for China? bauxite-to-alumina for expanded minerals processing and increased industrial development industry reports have a number of Indonesian alumina developments on the drawing boards or under construction

22 Establishment of an Indonesian alumina industry PT Aneka Tambang (Antam) & Showa Denko 0.3 Mt chemical grade, 2014 a first step into the alumina refining business the next step to be metallurgical grade alumina (SGA) Where? Who? How much? International partners?

23 Other Indonesian-Chinese alumina projects? PT Aneka Tambang (Antam) - Hangzhou Jinjiang 1.2 Mt SGA China Hongqiao Group, Winning Investment (HK), PT Cita Mineral Investindo, PT Danpac Resources Kalbar 2.0 Mt SGA, Phase Mt Q Chalco - PT Indonusa Dwitama, 1.0 Mt SGA, 2014 Shandong Nanshan Aluminium plans for an integrated $5 billion aluminium operation on Bintan Is. operational within three years.

24 Other Indonesian-Chinese alumina projects? Most recent media report received this morning... United Co. Rusal PLC signed a MoU with PT Arbaya Energi to develop an alumina smelter in West Kalimantan province of Indonesia

25 Indonesian opportunity to establish alumina industry under world best practice conditions... covering mining activities, alumina recovery rates, water consumption, energy efficiency, emissions management, dust control, caustic use and recovery and bauxite residue management, our industry s largest waste stream and greatest potential impact on the environment.

26 Bauxite Residue Management Guidelines not a single approach, but options for addressing different global conditions in an effective, environmentally-sound manner.

27 IAI bauxite residue voluntary global objectives a) Integrity of current residue storage facilities b) Provision of industry based assistance c) Best practice management d) Conclusion of bauxite residue solids disposal to marine and aquatic environment e) Improved technology

28 Work continuing on bauxite residue management research projects University of Queensland In Situ Remediation project investigating treatment response University of Limerick research project to develop a wetlands for alkaline leachate management

29 International Aluminium Institute(IAI) 国际铝业协会 ( 简称 IAI)

30 Our industry must responsibly manage our use of raw materials and inputs Rehabilitate mining sites; Improve alumina recovery rates; Reduce water consumption; Improve energy efficiency; Reduce carbon consumption; Manage emissions and product waste streams; Reduce caustic use; improve caustic recovery.

31 IAI challenges include... Resource use: bauxite mining, energy Environmental: land use, bauxite residue, GHGs; Occupational & environmental health; Trade/resource constraints: national, regional actions; Addressing sustainability: production, aluminium use, recycling and reuse a whole lifecycle approach; Responding to consumer requirements and needs.

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33 未来的能源库 铝故事汇

34 Mining & refining best practice 采矿和冶炼的最佳实践 Production processes 原铝生产流程 Transport application benefits 交通中的应用优势 Green building application benefits 绿色建筑中的应用优势 Packaging benefits 包装中的应用优势 Recycling & value recovery 回收和回收价值

35 The Institute s key objectives: Promote and increase markets for aluminium products; Defend industry licence to operate & market; Provide a global forum for the aluminium industry to discuss matters of common interest; Encourage healthy, safe & environmentally sound production of aluminium; Collect, analyse and communicate statistical data; Communicate the views of global aluminium industry.

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