AGROMETEOROLOGICAL TOOLS AND SERVICES FOR SUSTAINABLE AGRICULTURE - WMO REGIONS IV &VI. Nicholas M. Holden Anthony J.

Transcription

1 AGROMETEOROLOGICAL TOOLS AND SERVICES FOR SUSTAINABLE AGRICULTURE - WMO REGIONS IV &VI Nicholas M. Holden Anthony J. Brereton Ireland

2 TERMS OF REFERENCE To review and evaluate the status of agrometeorological applications to conserve and manage natural and environmental resources for the benefit of agriculture, rangelands, forestry, fisheries and other relevant rural activities Confined to Regions IV and VI Definitions / concepts A framework for analysis Issues that arise

3 WHAT IS SUSTAINABLE AGRICULTURE? "the management and conservation of the natural resource base, and the orientation of technological and institutional change in such a manner as to ensure the attainment and continued satisfaction of human needs for present and future generations. Such development... conserves land, water, plant and animal genetic resources, is environmentally nondegrading, technically appropriate, economically viable and socially acceptable."

4 WHAT IS SUSTAINABLE AGRICULTURE? "the management and conservation of the natural resource base, and the orientation of technological and institutional change in such a manner as to ensure the attainment and continued satisfaction of human needs for present and future generations. Such development... conserves land, water, plant and animal genetic resources, is environmentally nondegrading, technically appropriate, economically viable and socially acceptable." Production

5 WHAT IS AN AGROMETEOROLOGICAL TOOL? Any means by which agriculturally relevant meteorological information is made available to a farmer to be used as the basis for implementing best management Might be regarded as supporting sustainable production if addresses the three corners of the sustainability triangle

6 ARE TOOLS FOR SUSTAINABLE AGRICULTURE DIFFERENT? The issues: Globalization, climate change and the discovery of the effects of human activities on the environment have re-established the importance of agriculture for society in regions IV and VI Society wants low cost food and little environmental impact do these competing demands drive sustainable production? The option to buffer the effects of meteorological conditions in an unrestricted way is not possible for sustainable systems Effective application of agrometeorological tools becomes critical for the successful operation of sustainable systems Tools for sustainable agriculture have to account for the imposed constraints of sustainability

7 FROM WEATHER DATA TO FARMER

8 FROM WEATHER DATA TO FARMER Even in Regions IV and VI, communications options remain limited in rural environments, e.g. farmers in Ireland cannot use web sites that require broadband access

9 A FRAMEWORK FOR ANALYSIS OF TOOLS Attribute Options Comments Spatial scale Climate zone Biogeophysical zone Farm Catchment Region Country Geopolitical region Continent Global Generic based on plant growth Energy / moisture balance Genetic Comfort geology vegetation hydrology At what scale does the tool operate? Appropriate resolution? Based on what? Based on what?

10 A FRAMEWORK FOR ANALYSIS OF TOOLS Attribute Options Comments Spatial scale Farm Catchment Region Country Climate zone Generic based on plant growth Energy / moisture balance Genetic Comfort Appropriate resolution? Based on what? Biogeophysical zone geology vegetation hydrology Based on what? Geopolitical region Continent Global At what scale does the tool operate?

11 A FRAMEWORK FOR ANALYSIS OF TOOLS Attribute Options Comments Spatial scale Climate zone Biogeophysical zone Farm Catchment Region Country Geopolitical region Continent Global Generic based on plant growth Energy / moisture balance Genetic Comfort geology vegetation hydrology At what scale does the tool operate? Appropriate resolution? Based on what? Based on what?

12 A FRAMEWORK FOR ANALYSIS OF TOOLS Attribute Options Comments Spatial scale Climate zone Biogeophysical zone Farm Catchment Region Country Geopolitical region Continent Global Generic based on plant growth Energy / moisture balance Genetic Comfort geology vegetation hydrology At what scale does the tool operate? Appropriate resolution? Based on what? Based on what?

13 A FRAMEWORK FOR ANALYSIS OF TOOLS Attribute Options Comments Spatial scale Climate zone Biogeophysical zone Farm Catchment Region Country Geopolitical region Continent Global Generic based on plant growth Energy / moisture balance Genetic Comfort geology vegetation hydrology At what scale does the tool operate? Appropriate resolution? Based on what? Based on what?

14 A FRAMEWORK FOR ANALYSIS OF TOOLS Attribute Options Comments Spatial scale Climate zone Biogeophysical zone Farm Catchment Region Country Geopolitical region Continent Global Generic based on plant growth Energy / moisture balance Genetic Comfort geology vegetation hydrology At what scale does the tool operate? Appropriate resolution? Based on what? Based on what?

15 A FRAMEWORK FOR ANALYSIS OF TOOLS Attribute Options Comments Spatial scale Farm Catchment Region Country Climate zone Generic based on plant growth Energy / moisture balance Genetic Comfort Appropriate resolution? Based on what? Biogeophysical zone geology vegetation hydrology Based on what? Geopolitical region Continent Global At what scale does the tool operate?

16 A FRAMEWORK FOR ANALYSIS OF TOOLS Attribute Options Comments Spatial scale Climate zone Biogeophysical zone Farm Catchment Region Country Geopolitical region Continent Global Generic based on plant growth Energy / moisture balance Genetic Comfort geology vegetation hydrology At what scale does the tool operate? Appropriate resolution? Based on what? Based on what?

17 A FRAMEWORK FOR ANALYSIS OF TOOLS Attribute Options Comments Production system Type of tool Training requirements Temporal specificity Target user Arable, grassland, livestock, fruit, Intensive, extensive, substance, cash, Forecasts tools Information tools Management support tools Learning aids Decision support tools Government Advisors Farmers Regulators What classification to use? Is it intuitive? Knowledge demand? Does it apply to specific situations and times? Can the same tool meet requirements of different end users? Sustainability Economic / Environmental / Social How to assess this?

18 A FRAMEWORK FOR ANALYSIS OF TOOLS Attribute Options Comments Production system Type of tool Training requirements Temporal specificity Target user Arable, grassland, livestock, fruit, Intensive, extensive, substance, cash, Forecasts tools Information tools Management support tools Learning aids Decision support tools Government Advisors Farmers Regulators What classification to use? Is it intuitive? Knowledge demand? Does it apply to specific situations and times? Can the same tool meet requirements of different end users? Sustainability Economic / Environmental / Social How to assess this?

19 A FRAMEWORK FOR ANALYSIS OF TOOLS Attribute Options Comments Production system Type of tool Training requirements Temporal specificity Target user Arable, grassland, livestock, fruit, Intensive, extensive, substance, cash, Forecasts tools Information tools Management support tools Learning aids Decision support tools Government Advisors Farmers Regulators What classification to use? Is it intuitive? Knowledge demand? Does it apply to specific situations and times? Can the same tool meet requirements of different end users? Sustainability Economic / Environmental / Social How to assess this?

20 A FRAMEWORK FOR ANALYSIS OF TOOLS Attribute Options Comments Production system Type of tool Training requirements Temporal specificity Target user Arable, grassland, livestock, fruit, Intensive, extensive, substance, cash, Forecasts tools Information tools Management support tools Learning aids Decision support tools Government Advisors Farmers Regulators What classification to use? Is it intuitive? Knowledge demand? Does it apply to specific situations and times? Can the same tool meet requirements of different end users? Sustainability Economic / Environmental / Social How to assess this?

21 A FRAMEWORK FOR ANALYSIS OF TOOLS Attribute Options Comments Production system Type of tool Training requirements Temporal specificity Target user Arable, grassland, livestock, fruit, Intensive, extensive, substance, cash, Forecasts tools Information tools Management support tools Learning aids Decision support tools Government Advisors Farmers Regulators What classification to use? Is it intuitive? Knowledge demand? Does it apply to specific situations and times? Can the same tool meet requirements of different end users? Sustainability Economic / Environmental / Social How to assess this?

22 A FRAMEWORK FOR ANALYSIS OF TOOLS Attribute Options Comments Production system Type of tool Training requirements Temporal specificity Target user Arable, grassland, livestock, fruit, Intensive, extensive, substance, cash, Forecasts tools Information tools Management support tools Learning aids Decision support tools Government Advisors Farmers Regulators What classification to use? Is it intuitive? Knowledge demand? Does it apply to specific situations and times? Can the same tool meet requirements of different end users? Sustainability Economic / Environmental / Social How to assess this?

23 A FRAMEWORK FOR ANALYSIS OF TOOLS Attribute Options Comments Production system Type of tool Training requirements Temporal specificity Target user Arable, grassland, livestock, fruit, Intensive, extensive, substance, cash, Forecasts tools Information tools Management support tools Learning aids Decision support tools Government Advisors Farmers Regulators What classification to use? Is it intuitive? Knowledge demand? Does it apply to specific situations and times? Can the same tool meet requirements of different end users? Sustainability Economic / Environmental / Social How to assess this?

24 A FRAMEWORK FOR ANALYSIS OF TOOLS Attribute Options Comments Production system Type of tool Training requirements Temporal specificity Target user Arable, grassland, livestock, fruit, Intensive, extensive, substance, cash, Forecasts tools Information tools Management support tools Learning aids Decision support tools Government Advisors Farmers Regulators What classification to use? Is it intuitive? Knowledge demand? Does it apply to specific situations and times? Can the same tool meet requirements of different end users? Sustainability Economic / Environmental / Social How to assess this?

25 A FRAMEWORK FOR ANALYSIS OF TOOLS Attribute Options Comments Production system Type of tool Training requirements Temporal specificity Target user Arable, grassland, livestock, fruit, Intensive, extensive, substance, cash, Forecasts tools Information tools Management support tools Learning aids Decision support tools Government Advisors Farmers Regulators What classification to use? Is it intuitive? Knowledge demand? Does it apply to specific situations and times? Can the same tool meet requirements of different end users? Sustainability Economic / Environmental / Social How to assess this?

26 A FRAMEWORK FOR ANALYSIS OF TOOLS Attribute Options Comments Production system Type of tool Training requirements Temporal specificity Target user Arable, grassland, livestock, fruit, Intensive, extensive, substance, cash, Forecasts tools Information tools Management support tools Learning aids Decision support tools Government Advisors Farmers Regulators What classification to use? Is it intuitive? Knowledge demand? Does it apply to specific situations and times? Can the same tool meet requirements of different end users? Sustainability Economic / Environmental / Social How to assess this?

27 A FRAMEWORK FOR ANALYSIS OF TOOLS Attribute Options Comments Production system Type of tool Training requirements Temporal specificity Target user Arable, grassland, livestock, fruit, Intensive, extensive, substance, cash, Forecasts tools Information tools Management support tools Learning aids Decision support tools Government Advisors Farmers Regulators What classification to use? Is it intuitive? Knowledge demand? Does it apply to specific situations and times? Can the same tool meet requirements of different end users? Sustainability Economic / Environmental / Social How to assess this?

28 A FRAMEWORK FOR ANALYSIS OF TOOLS Attribute Options Comments Production system Type of tool Training requirements Temporal specificity Target user Arable, grassland, livestock, fruit, Intensive, extensive, substance, cash, Forecasts tools Information tools Management support tools Learning aids Decision support tools Government Advisors Farmers Regulators What classification to use? Is it intuitive? Knowledge demand? Does it apply to specific situations and times? Can the same tool meet requirements of different end users? Sustainability Economic / Environmental / Social How to assess this?

29 HOW THE FRAMEWORK MIGHT BE USED 1. Identify the tool 2. Assess against the criteria in the framework 3. Record in a database 4. Query the database What farming systems are not supported by tools? What regions have poor support? 5. Interpret the results Is poor support due to poor observation network / infrastructure / other? What training / CPE is required?

30 EXAMPLE 1: SMD MODEL (IRE) Attribute Notes Classification Spatial scale Climate zone Biogeophysical zone Production system Type of tool Training requirements Temporal specificity Target user Predicted at 25 km 2 resolution Can operate at farm to national scale Can work anywhere Needs local calibration Any, but model relates to grassland Grassland agriculture Can be adapted to any reference crop Information Forecast Training required to interpret to a specific situation No use without training 24 hour time period Works year round Farmer Advisor Policy maker Researchers National Sustainability Output means little without further interpretation N / A Marine West Coast Natural: temperate forest, peat, grassland Livestock (grazed grass) (Can be adapted to crops) Information base Constraint management Consultancy Yes No Any

31 EXAMPLE 1: SMD MODEL (IRE) Attribute Notes Classification Spatial scale Climate zone Biogeophysical zone Production system Type of tool Training requirements Temporal specificity Target user Predicted at 25 km 2 resolution Can operate at farm to national scale Can work anywhere Needs local calibration Any, but model relates to grassland Grassland agriculture Can be adapted to any reference crop Information Forecast Training required to interpret to a specific situation No use without training 24 hour time period Works year round Farmer Advisor Policy maker Researchers National Sustainability Output means little without further interpretation N / A Marine West Coast Natural: temperate forest, peat, grassland Livestock (grazed grass) (Can be adapted to crops) Information base Constraint management Consultancy Yes No Any

32 EXAMPLE 2: (DK) Attribute Notes Classification Spatial scale Climate zone Biogeophysical zone Production system Type of tool Training requirements Temporal specificity National scale forecasts Farm scale application Based on Danish observation network Being exported to other countries Not really that relevant for this tool Aimed at crop production but includes some manure management tools Offers information and recommendations for the farmer. Farmer can give access to contracted consultant Requires assistance to use Requires knowledge to interpret the information Recommendations and information are specific to the activity and time of year Farm Humid continental / Continental subarctic Natural: temperate/ boreal forest Arable crops Target user Farmer oriented Farmer Information base Constraint management Consultancy Yes Yes (varies by component) Sustainability Environment and production (economic) focus Class 7: ecological / economical

33 EXAMPLE 2: (DK) Attribute Notes Classification Spatial scale Climate zone Biogeophysical zone Production system Type of tool Training requirements Temporal specificity National scale forecasts Farm scale application Based on Danish observation network Being exported to other countries Not really that relevant for this tool Aimed at crop production but includes some manure management tools Offers information and recommendations for the farmer. Farmer can give access to contracted consultant Requires assistance to use Requires knowledge to interpret the information Recommendations and information are specific to the activity and time of year Farm Humid continental / Continental subarctic Natural: temperate/ boreal forest Arable crops Target user Farmer oriented Farmer Information base Constraint management Consultancy Yes Yes (varies by component) Sustainability Environment and production (economic) focus Class 7: ecological / economical

34 ISSUES THAT ARISE 1 CLASSIFICATION Attribute Spatial scale Climate zone Biogeophysical zone Production system Type of tool Training requirements Temporal specificity Target user Sustainability Notes Can a universal classification be defined? Membership of multiple categories? What climate / agroclimate classification is appropriate? Needed for identification of gaps in provision of services Not very relevant for intensive production Perhaps needed for systems that rely on natural resources (forestry) Needed to support biodiversity and similar environmental issues What classification and level of detail is needed? Are parts of the market not being served? What will it cost to make these tools useful? Is this necessary? Should it be specificity in general? Are parts of the market not being served? Is this appropriate and possible?

35 ISSUES THAT ARISE 2 GENERAL Can the framework help in finding the right tool for the job? Does it capture stakeholder investment in the tool? Are the issues of boundaries between meteorological services captured? Is the role of long-term, seasonal and short-term forecasting captured? Is uncertainty properly addressed? Is the role of model output interpretation captured? Are IT requirements captured? Is the need for tools matched to constraints of sustainable agriculture captured?

36 COMMENT Agrometeorological tools tend to depend on informal relationships between stakeholders (meteorological services, government, agricultural agencies, researchers, consultants, farmers). An appropriate weather service structure (like World Weather Watch) is needed to offer a convenient structure on which to base an agrometeorological services that are not defined by national frontiers

37 DO TOOLS PROMOTE SUSTAINABILITY? If a tool is designed to maximize any particular component of the sustainability triangle then probably not Will only promote sustainability once we have defined what sustainability means for a specific farm / region / system and in the context of the policy environment in which the production system operates Sustainability is a global scale concept for regions IV and VI, therefore global scale solutions will be required There is little evidence from the information collected to date that the tools promote sustainability

38 DRAFT RECOMMENDATIONS Effective translation of meteorological forecasts into a form understood by the farmer is essential A formal service delivery structure needs to be defined. This should be a light-touch type approach but should make decision making about collaboration, interpretation and transmission of information more straightforward Agricultural activities and agrometeorology are not defined by national frontiers therefore transnational structures may be appropriate Tool and services must be designed to balance the components of the sustainability triangle We will only promote sustainability once we have defined what sustainability means for a specific farm / region / system and in the context of the policy environment in which the production system operates

39 DRAFT RECOMMENDATIONS Sustainability is a global scale concept for regions IV and VI, therefore global scale solutions will be required Tools should be implemented as services aimed at multiple stakeholders Tools should report probabilities where possible to assist with risk management Tools and services should address long-term (strategic), seasonal (tactical) and short-term (operational) forecasting and the distinct differences between these services Service delivery should assume a basic minimum access to ICT and should build up from the minimum in a progressive manner

40 WHAT NEXT? Review work to date in light of feedback from Expert Team meeting Circulate draft report and request for examples of tools to agrometeorologist in each member state Try to analyze response in terms of the proposed framework Make recommendations based on review of tools available and review of existing thinking as contained in the report