Job Retention and Skills Analysis among Newly Hired Workers in Montana

Transcription

1 Job Retention and Skills Analysis among Newly Hired Workers in Montana Presented at the C2ER/LMI Institute Annual Conference June 10 th, 2015 Amy Watson Economist MT Dept. of Labor and Industry

2 Hiring the Right Workers New Hire Retention Rates, 2006 to 2009 Percent of Workers Remaining with Employer After Hire After One Quarter After Four Quarters Montana Wyoming Montana Wyoming % 63% 24% 26% A new hire is a worker that is receiving wages from that business for the first quarter since 2000.

3 Turnover of New Hires 2009

4 New Hire Employment Duration by Industry Financial Activities 21% 31% 23% 14% 11% Professional, Management, and Information Services 23% 31% 21% 12% 12% Trade and Transportation 26% 35% 20% 12% 7% Education and Health Care 27% 33% 21% 10% 9% Manufacturing 27% 31% 18% 14% 10% Only 1 Quarter 2 Quarters 3 Quarters 4 Quarters Mining and Utilities Other Services Public Administration Leisure Activities Administration and Support 27% 28% 28% 33% 39% 34% 32% 34% 37% 38% 15% 20% 18% 11% 11% 12% 18% 14% 12% 9% 8% 9% 4% 6% 4% Over 1 Year Construction 41% 33% 16% 7% 3% Agriculture 46% 27% 16% 6% 4%

5 More Information Required a Survey Observation: Low job retention rates Varies by season and industry Likely to vary by worker demographics 1. Is it a problem? Good worker turnover versus bad turnover Cost to public assistance and worker training programs 2. Are there certain characteristics or skills associated with job retention / wage progression?

6 Possible Job Match Outcomes Position was Seasonal or Temporary Both worker and employer are better off. Job Retention: No Skill Shortage: No Worker Leaves for Better Options Worker better off; employer s welfare depends on costs of hire vs. gains from work provided. Job Retention: No Skill Shortage: No Worker is Fired Both worker and employer are worse off. Job Retention: No Skill Shortage: Yes Worker Remains Employed Both worker and employer better off. Job Retention: Yes Skill Shortage: No

7 Things other than Skills that Matter to Job Retention Worker education and training level Matching was done with available records from education and labor agencies, but 71% of new hires had missing education information. Age (experience), gender, race, veteran status Difficulty obtaining driver s license data Some matching with Montana jobs database indicated new hires were younger than workers overall. Job characteristics: wage, benefits, full-time status Employer characteristics: provide training to workers

8 Survey Details Initial funding was provided by a competitive grant. Sample drawn from newly hired workers based on UI wage records. Sent to both private and public businesses. 94% to private sector, 5.4% to local government, 0% to federal government Not sent to Public Administration Industry or private household workers. After 1 st Panel, excluded those earning less than $150.

9 Response Rates and Number Mailed 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 3, , Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3

10 New Hire Job Outcomes After Two Quarters (Same Employer) Laid off for Economic Reasons 2% Other/ Unknown 4% Seasonal or Temporary Work 14% Let go due to poor performance 8% Not New Hire 5% Still Working 41% Worker Left Voluntarily* 26% *3% had poor skill ratings.

11 Job Outcomes of Newly Hired Workers, Two Quarters after Hire, by Job Type Outcome Temporary or Seasonal Workers Permanent Full-Time Permanent Part- Time Still Working 24% 46% 49% Poor Performance 5% 10% 8% Temporary or Seasonal Position 49% n.a. n.a. Voluntary Leave 20% 20% 38% Economic Reasons * 2% 3%

12 Job Outcomes (Any Employer) Unknown and Employed 3% Unknown/ Other and Unemployed 1% Laid Off and Employed 1% Seasonal and Unemployed 7% Seasonal and Employed 7% Let Go and Employed 6% Employed 41% 80% Employed by some Employer 43% had Wage Increases Let Go and Still Unemployed 2% Not a New Hire 5% Left and Employed 17% Left and Still Unemployed 10%

13 Likelihood of Wage Increase by Job Outcome 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Employed Fired and Employed Laid Off and Employed Left and Employed Seasonal and Employed Preliminary data not tested for significance.

14 1 st Question: Is it a problem? While only 41% are with the same employer, 80% are re-employed elsewhere. Employers may still have losses for hiring and training costs. Employees may have costs in transitional work. Mostly concerned with the 20% of new hires that are unemployed after being hired two quarters ago. Voluntary leave (10%) School? Retirement? Left State? Seasonal (7%) Fired or laid off and still unemployed (3%) -- Retraining?

15 What Characteristics/ Skills are Associated with Job Retention/ Wage Progression? Service Orientation/ Customer Service Critical Thinking Reading Comprehension Operating Equipment Communication Following Instructions Time Management Safety Job-Specific Technical Skills Work Ethics Number Skills Physical Skills Actively helping people and providing customer service Using logic and reasoning to identify approaches to problems Understanding written sentences and paragraphs Controlling operations of equipment or systems The ability to communicate effectively with others The ability to follow oral or written instructions Ability to manage time and stay on task The ability to maintain a safe work environment Skills specific to an occupation, such as drafting, special software, installation, maintenance, etc. Shows up on time, honest, positive attitude, appropriate personal appearance Adding, subtracting, division, multiplication, fractions, statistics The use of physical strength and/ or stamina, skill in using one's hands

16 What Skills are Important to Employers? Work Ethic 99% 1% Following Instructions 98% 2% Communication 95% 4% Time Management 95% 4% Safety 88% 9% 4% Critical Thinking 83% 12% 6% Service Orientation/ Customer Service 72% 12% 17% Reading Comprehention 70% 17% 14% Physical 68% 17% 15% Operating Equipment 63% 17% 20% Number 61% 21% 18% Job-Specific Technical Skills 54% 26% 21% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Important Neither Unimportant Preliminary not weighted results.

17 Skill Importance Varies by Occupation Skill Important to Less Important or Unimportant to Work Ethic All Occupations Customer Service Sales and Related Occupations Farming, Fishing, and Forestry Occupations Production Occupations Critical Thinking Legal and Management Occupations Life, Physical, and Social Science Occupations Reading Comprehension Operating Equipment Safety Job-Specific Technical Skills Legal and Healthcare Practitioners Occupations Installation and Repair, Production, and Computer Occupations Protective Service, Construction and Extraction, Production Occupations Healthcare Practitioners, Computer and Mathematical, Architecture and Engineering Farming, Fishing, and Forestry Protective Services Community and Social Services Legal Transportation and Material Moving Protective Services Number Skills Management, Architecture and Engineering Building and Grounds Workers

18 Percent of Workers with Inadequate Skills Skill Retained Workers Poor Performance Service Orientation/ Customer Service * 35.6% Critical Thinking 6.3% 50.2% Operating Equipment 0.9% 14.9% Communication 5.1% 34.5% Following Instructions 5.1% 61.1% Time Management 5.9% 43.5% Safety * 11.4% Job-Specific Technical Skills * 24.9% Work Ethics 4.9% 46.5% Physical Skills * 9.8% Preliminary based on first two panels.

19 QUESTIONS? MORE INFORMATION AVAILABLE AT Amy Watson