Photovoltaic Market Update

Transcription

1 Photovoltaic Market Update SEMICON, October 06 th, 2009 Dresden Markus A.W. Hoehner, CEO EuPD Research

2 About Us 2

3 PV Business Solutions: Profound Research and Consulting About EuPD Research EuPD Research is an international B2B market research company that provides sustainable research for sustainable companies. About 360Consult 360Consult is a strategy & marketing consultancy that provides sustainable consulting for sustainable companies based on primary and secondary data. EuPD Products EuPD Exclusive Services 360Consult Services Information Services Multi-Client Services Shared Services Research Services Consulting Services Integrated Business Solution Flexible Retainer Service Integrated Business Solution Project Service Data & News Refined Information Semi- Individual Research Ad-hoc Research Services Strategy & Marketing Consulting 3

4 Information Sources of this Presentation Quantitative Survey Database PV Thin Film Industry Guidebook 2009 PV National Market Studies (Germany, Spain, Italy, France, USA) PV InstallerMonitor /09 Constant PV Market Tracking Source Quelle: : EuPD EuPD Research Research Geschäftsklimaindex"Photovoltaik"* German PV BusinessClimateIndex * ,9 100,0 98,1 98,7 101,9 96,8 100, ,0 95,5 96,0 98,7 97,5 97,1 97,4 97,4 92,1 93,3 97,4 89,6 89,2 87,9 90, ,5 89,3 91,0 84,7 83,6 82,8 82,8 86,5 83,3 80, ,4 78,8 78,2 80,1 79,5 74, ,7 Manufacturer Database PV Heaven International PV ModulePriceMonitor PV Market Intelligence Quarterly USA, Italy and Spain 60 Q1/2005 Q2/2005 Q3/2005 Q4/2005 Q1/2006 Q2/2006 Q3/2006 Q4/2006 Q1/2007 Q2/2007 Q3/2007 Q4/2007 Q1/2008 Geschäftsklima Climate Start 1. Quartal Geschäftslage Situation Expectation Start: 1st Quarter 2005 = 100 Geschäftserwartung * not *nicht seasonally saisonbereinigt adjusted 4

5 The Year 2009 Major Market Trends 5

6 Increasing Competitive Pressure By the end of 2008 companies along all steps of the value chain strongly increased production capacities This together with a weak demand leads to massive oversupply in the market and fosters the current consolidation in the global PV sector. 0 Pending Slump in Demand New legislations in key European countries (Market cap in Spain, increased degression in Germany) Collapse of the Spanish market Emerging markets like Italy, France, Greece or the US are not yet ready to absorb these capacities The financial crisis leads to complicated capital procurement, thus augmenting the negative effects on demand In spite of higher degression, Germany is the bearer of hope Falling Prices As a result of the developments described above, PV module and system prices are declining strongly As a consequence, margins are under pressure and some manufacturers are obliged to sell beneath production costs in order to maintain liquidity. Global PV demand Global Potential PV global production production Source: EuPD Research 2009 Source: EuPD Research 2009??? Quelle : BSW Solarwirts chafteupd Research 05/2 009 Preisindex PV-Module 105% 100,0% 100% 98,4 % 95,1 % 95% 94,3% 93,6 % 93,6% 95,3% 93,6% 90,1% 89,5 % 91,1 % 90,6 % 89,3% 90,6 % 90,4% 90% 87,5 % 88,2% 87,6% 88,6% 89,7% 86,6% 87,5% 89,5% 87,1% 85% 86,6 % 86,5% 86,7 % 85,5% 81,5% 80% 79,9% 78,9% 73,3% 75% 69,0% 70% 68,2 % 65% 60% Bezug Q2 3. Quart al 4. Quart al 1. Quart al 2. Quartal 3. Quartal 4. Quartal 1. Quartal 2. Quarta l 3. Quart al 4. Quart al 1. Quart al 2. Quar tal monokristalline Module polykristalline Module Dünnschicht-Module Start : 2. Quartal 2006 = 100% Für das 3. Quartal 2006 sind keine Angaben verfügbar 6

7 Supply Side Developments 7

8 Global Panel Capacity and Production e Source: EuPD Research GWp GWp 20 GWp GWp GWp 5 GWp 0 GWp e 2009e 2010e 2011e 2012e capacity thin film capacity crystalline production thin film production crystalline

9 Crystalline Cell Manufacturers Competitive Environment of Crystalline Cell Producers North America 17 manufacturer Europe 41 manufacturer Asia 85 manufacturer South America 0 manufacturer Africa 1 manufacturer Australia 3 manufacturer *Quelle: EuPD PV Heaven

10 Crystalline Module Manufacturers Competitive Environment of Module Producers North America 18 manufacturer Europe 100 manufacturer Asia 143 manufacturer South America 0 manufacturer Africa 1 manufacturer Australia 1 manufacturer *Quelle: EuPD PV Heaven

11 Global Thin Film Production e Source: EuPD Research e 2009e 2010e 2011e 2012e capacity CdTe capacity CIS capacity a-si production CdTe production CIS production a-si

12 PV Module Production per Region in 2009 (According to EuPD Research Estimations) Source: EuPD Research 2009 USA CS = 419 MW TF = 300 MW Europe CS = 1,297 MW TF = 265 MW Asia CS = 4,429 MW TF = 752 MW CS = estimated crystalline module production TF = estimated thin film production 12

13 China The New Spot on the Global PV Map Share of Global Production of Crystalline Cells in 2005 > 30% 21% bis 30% 20% to 30% 11% bis 20% 10% to 20% 6% bis 10% 5% to 10% 3% to 5% 13

14 China The New Spot on the Global PV Map Share of Global Production of Crystalline Cells in 2007 > 30% 21% bis 30% 20% to 30% 11% bis 20% 10% to 20% 6% bis 10% 5% to 10% 3% to 5% 14

15 China The New Spot on the Global PV Map Share of Global Production of Crystalline Cells in 2009 > 30% 21% bis 30% 20% to 30% 11% bis 20% 10% to 20% 6% bis 10% 5% to 10% 3% to 5% 15

16 Demand Side Developments 16

17 Global Market Development e 14,000 MWp Source: EuPD Research ,630 12,000 MWp 1,377 10,000 MWp 9, ,010 8,000 MWp 6,000 MWp 4,000 MWp 2,809 6, , , , , ,730 1,550 2,640 2,000 MWp ,872 3,544 4,147 4,379 4,753 1,906 0 MWp e 2010e 2011e 2012e Europe USA Asia ROW Reihe7 17

18 Projected Market Share of Selected Technologies (2010 and 2015) Source: EuPD Research 2009 thin film (a-si, CIS, CdTe) 20.5% CPV 1.8% organic others 39.7% PV other 29.3% 29.3% 39.7% other technologies 0.7% mono and polycrystalline 76.6% nanotechnologies 31.0% Source: EuPD Research n = 35 thin-film (a-si, CIS, CdTe) 20.5% mono- and polycrystalline PV 76.6% thin filmcpv 1.8% (a-si, CIS, CdTe) 28.6% 2010 Source: EuPD Research 2009 others* organic PV 39.7% 29.3% other technologies 0.7% nanotechnologies 31.0% n = 35 CPV 3.7% organic others PV 39.3% other 24.9% technologies 2.1% mono and polycrystalline 64.4% nanotechnologies 35.8% 2015 n = 35 18

19 Looking Ahead: Emerging PV Markets Portfolio Analysis: Promising Emerging PV Markets Source: EuPD Research 2009 Question Marks 120% Stars Asian PV tigers Singapore 100% BIPV prospectives European emergers Midfuture markets China UK India 80% 60% Market growth (CAGR ) 40% Japan South Korea Switzerland Austria Czech Republic 20% Germany 0% Australia 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% Belgium 0% Poor Dogs -20% Cash Cows Projected Market Share 2012 relating to overall global PV market Diameter: Market size in relation to reference market China 2012 (1,500 MW) 19

20 Price Developments 20

21 System Prices for Sample Systems and Sizes in EUR (2nd Quarter 2009) Source: EuPD Research 08/2009 6,500 /kwp 6,000 /kwp What is the price of a exemplary PV system per kwp? (crystalline systems) 6,123 5,500 /kwp 5,292 5,000 /kwp 4,910 5,270 4,500 /kwp 4,342 4,440 4,000 /kwp 3,839 4,073 4,152 4,126 3,500 /kwp 3,544 3,656 3,000 /kwp 2,977 2,915 2,500 /kwp Germany Spain Italy France USA 3 kwp rooftop Ø 300 kwp rooftop > 500 kwp open-space Germany n = 63 n = 42 n = 13 Spain n = 39 n = 42 n = 30 Italy n = 39 n = 38 n = 30 France n = 28 n = 5 n = 0 USA n = 26 n = 16 n = 8 21

22 Price Index Technologies (2nd Quarter 2009) Source: EuPD Research 08/2009 monocrystalline modules 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 100% 93.28% 91.79% 89.95% 85.70% 86.20% 84.48% 81.30% 78.11% 77.89% 75.78% 73.09% 69.35% 68.95% 67.84% 54.30% polycrystalline modules 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 100% 93.99% 93.57% 91.92% 87.53% 84.97% 86.47% 86.23% 81.15% 78.62% 78.68% 71.72% 70.23% 69.86% 68.41% 60.11% 50% thin film modules 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 100% 92.06% 90.43% 88.26% 74.33% 74.29% 86.09% 79.80% 77.74% 77.54% 76.04% 70.71% 69.68% 67.49% 66.22% 64.38% 50% 4th quarter st quarter nd quarter rd quarter 2009 Germany Spain Italy France USA 22

23 Effects on the Distribution Channels 23

24 Distribution Channels An Overview Typical Distribution Channels Production Manufacturer Wholesaler System Integrator Distribution Turnkey Provider Installation Installer Installer Market private Customers Commercial Customers Agricultural Customers Public Customers Investors 24

25 Trends and Tendencies in the Downstream Segment Benefiting from oversupply Trends in downstream distribution Shipments Distributors (i.e. installers, wholesalers) and project companies benefit from module oversupply and increasing margins. Strong tendency of upstream players to skip wholesale or implement own projects At the same time, distributors try to enlarge their installer network Wholesale/ system integration Installers Market Project business/ EPC Downstream margins in Europe differ widely. In Germany, average wholesale margin is 3-5 percent and average installers margin is 8-12 percent. In Italy, wholesale margins are commonly percent and installers margins amount to about percent (commercial rooftops). In France, the country with the highest PV module and system prices, installers margin can be as high as percent. 25

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