Weathering the Storm: Wetlands and Food Attenuation in Ontario. Natural Adaptation to a Changing Climate

Transcription

1 Weathering the Storm: Wetlands and Food Attenuation in Ontario Natural Adaptation to a Changing Climate

2 Ducks Unlimited Canada Our MISSION: DUC conserves, manages and restores wetlands and associated habitats for North America s waterfowl. These habitats also benefit other wildlife and people. Our GOAL: 1) policies that position Ontario to achieve a net gain in wetlands; 2) Encourage meaningful investment in wetlands as natural infrastructure. Ontario Biodiversity Council Strategic priority # 1: Enhance Resilience Diversity of life is OUR BEST DEFENCE in a world of rapidly changing climate.

3 Extreme Weather in Ontario Extreme weather, flooding on the rise in southern Ontario due to climate change Increasing costs for government, businesses and homeowners Need for innovative solutions to manage water in a changing climate

4 Wetlands are critical infrastructure Wetlands are highly productive ecosystems that provide benefits to wildlife and society: Water filtration Carbon sequestration Erosion control Drought prevention Flood attenuation

5 Project Overview Quantify the capacity for wetlands to detain flooding from an extreme late summer rainfall event. 1. Literature review 2. Modelling: select model, develop approach, run model 3. Economic analysis 4. Develop a business case 5. Take business case to political and economic decision makers

6 Credit River Watershed

7 The Model Oak Ridges Moraine Hydrogeology Program Built using HydroGeoSphere Storm events characterized (2, 5, 10, 25, 50, 100, Ontario record year returns) Wetland scenarios developed

8 Modelling Scenarios All 7 scenarios will be modelled under 7 rainfall intensities (2yr, 5yr, 10yr, 25yr, 50yr, 100yr, Ontario s record maximum) 1. A baseline scenario using existing wetland extent Wetland Loss Scenario: 2. Loss of all geographically isolated/headwater wetlands 3. Loss of all connected wetlands 4. Loss of all Non Provincially Significant Wetlands (PSWs) 5. Projected near term loss using CVC Natural Heritage System % Wetland Loss Wetland Restoration Scenario: 7. Restored wetlands at all CVC planned restoration sites

9 For each flood return period, we looked at: ooverland flood velocity ooverland flood depth ooverland flood duration othe spatial extent of flooding oused a real life summer 2015 convective storm event to add an extra level of realism

10 Results: change in depth, scenario 3 Loss of all connected wetlands

11 Results: change in depth, scenario 6 Loss of all wetlands

12 Compare with. Results: change in depth, scenario 2 Loss of all isolated wetlands

13 Results: Restoration

14 Results: Restoration, 2yr event

15 Results: Restoration, 10yr event

16 Results: Restoration, 25yr event

17 Results: Restoration, 50yr event

18 Results: Restoration, 100yr event

19 Outcome

20 Next: the economic analysis

21 What do we want from this? Recognize wetlands as critically important natural infrastructure assets Wetland protection and RESTORATION to be part of climate change adaptation and storm water management planning in Ontario communities Ensure that Ontario communities are equipped with the necessary resources to take action: informed planning supported by improved policies and MEANINGFUL investment in wetland restoration.

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23 What s Next? A predictive model: could show us where to restore wetlands to maximize flood mitigation benefits/reduce risk and costs 1.To what extent is restoration taking place within watersheds? 2.Is there any wetland restoration target setting going on? 3.If so, what guides the target setting, what are the targets predicated upon? 4.Can we set wetland restoration targets that encompass our collective land use interests and increase climate change resiliency?

24 With thanks to the project funders, collaborators and supporters