WORLD? Scenarios for the 21st Century WHICH. The world is changing rapidly. Market world. Allen Hammond. Global Destinies, Regional Choices

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1 1 WHICH WORLD? Scenarios for the 21st Century Global Destinies, Regional Choices Allen Hammond The world is changing rapidly a globalizing economy transforming technologies new dangers but what vision will guide that change? Market world A vision of the future in which... free markets private enterprise unprecedented technological innovation global integration Demographic Equity Environmental Social stresses Security What could undercut Market World? Critical Trends bring growing prosperity and social progress

2 2 Projected world population growth Total fertility 1 Sub-Saharan Africa billions of people DEVELOPING DEVELOPED North Africa & Middle East India Southeast Asia Latin America North America China Europe Russia children per woman Urbanization Projected economic growth billions of people URBAN DEVELOPING URBAN DEVELOPED South Asia N. Africa/Middle East Sub-Saharan Africa India SE Asia China Latin America E. Europe RURAL Russia Japan Europe North America GNP (trillions constant $US)

3 3 Income gaps Environmental trends 7, 6, Developing Regions Industrial Regions Constant $US 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, the impact of industrialization The materials cycle Global industrial growth 3 manufacturing energy Index of activity Source:

4 4 Regional industrial growth 25 pollution potential Percent change from 199 1,2 1, Latin America manufacturing energy India SE Asia China parts per million Atmospheric CO concentrations rising emissions constant emissions Environmental trends Threatened frontier forests of South America Low or no threat Medium or high threat Non frontier forests Unassessed for threat...degradation of biological systems

5 5 Threatened frontier forests of Asia Threatened frontier forests of Africa Low or no threat Medium or high threat Non frontier forests Unassessed for threat Low or no threat Medium or high threat Non frontier forests Unassessed for threat Threatened coral reefs Low Medium High The biosphere is under stress And so are communities that depend on it. Degradation Growing resource scarcity Rural impoverishment undercutting livelihoods undermining social stability Potential resource conflicts

6 6 Social stresses Persistent poverty, malnutrition A tide of HIV orphans The global teenager New threats to security and stability Economic instability Terrorism and global crime Unemployment & urban instability Illegal migration Emerging new diseases Global climate change Fortress world A darker vision of the future in which... Conflict between rich and poor Widespread environmental degradation Rising social instability Potential for violence and chaos creates fear and frustration...a world with islands of prosperity surrounded by an ocean of poverty and despair Transformed world A vision of the future based on the possibility of fundamental change... Market Is such World a future economic realistic? dynamism, plus Bottom-up social change/wider participation New social accountability/new forms of governance creates a more peaceful, equitable, environmentally stable world.

7 7 Reasons for hope An action agenda for a transformed world Rising literacy Innovation and technological change The rise of civil society Greening of global corporations Accelerating development With new actors and new technologies, could we not dramatically improve: Industrial efficiency new ways to meet societal needs, such as e-commerce? Environmental productivity transform management of natural resources, protect special places? Human development expand access, accelerate education, widen social perspectives, and increase opportunity? Three possible trajectories into the future Market World Fortress World Transformed World Latin America Critical Choice: Equity or Instability? Can the region, otherwise poised for growth, overcome deep-seated inequity and find political stability?

8 8 China, India, SE Asia Critical Choice: What Kind of Growth? Can Asia continue its rapid growth despite severe constraints and social pressures? Can it avoid creating horrendous environmental problems? Sub-Saharan Saharan Africa Critical Choice: Governance Reform or Tragedy? Can political reform bring competent governance in time to halt the region s descent? North Africa & Middle East Critical Choice: Reform or Revolution? Europe, Japan, & United States Critical Choice: Leadership or Stagnation? Can social and political reform bring modernization, or will violent revolution bring to power reactionary governments? Will these regions choose open economies, progressive policies, and global leadership, or will they turn inward and more conservative, focused on domestic concerns?

9 9 Final Thoughts The future is contingent so choices matter! we have the power to shape those choices No country can entirely determine its own destiny...the world is closely linked...help others succeed, or inherit their failures Business and civil society must help lead Final Thoughts The future is contingent plausible trajectories diverge choices matter The global destiny depends on regional choices the world is closely linked we have a huge stake in what happens in developing regions The Challenge for Business How should business address rising social and environ. expectations? Out of conviction? Out of fear? (to protect the franchise) As source of new markets? The Next Bottom Line How to make social, environmental concerns central to corporate strategy? The Challenge for Business When is it appropriate/necessary to entirely rethink corporate strategy or lines of business? Should business participate in political activism? Under what circumstances? World Resources Institute

10 1 WRI Programs Biological Resources Global Forest Watch, transparency for resource management (Africa), biological corridors (Cen. Amer.), destructive fishing reform (SE Asia), food security and environ. Development Paths urban governance, environ. and health (China), environ. governance (Cen. Amer.), interntl. financial flows and environ., managing water resources (S.E. Asia) The Research Agenda The challenge is to develop a science of sustainability that maintains a commitment to rigor, while recognizing the inherent uncertainty in complex systems and the need for advice on how to make sustainable choices -- the Global Scenario Group, Bending the Curve,, 1998 A contingent future Which world will our children and grandchildren inherit? Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed individuals can change the world; indeed, it is the only thing that ever has. Margaret Mead