Environmentally Beneficial Electrification, Water Heaters, and More

Transcription

1 Environmentally Beneficial Electrification, Water Heaters, and More Keith Dennis, PE Senior Principal End-Use Solutions and Standards Energy and Power Division

2 Environmentally Beneficial Electrification The use of electricity in end-uses that would otherwise be powered by fossil fuels like natural gas, propane, fuel oil or gasoline, to reduce greenhouse gas emissions Necessary if the country and the world are to achieve aggressive carbon dioxide emission reduction goals This includes electrifying: 1) Transportation (electric vehicles) 2) Space heating (heat pumps) 3) Water heating (heat pumps and smart water heaters).

3 A Growing Consensus for BE Lawrence Berkeley National Lab: key to meeting GHG goals are widespread electrification of passenger vehicles, building heating, and industry heating. Stanford University: one potential way to combat ongoing climate change, eliminate air pollution mortality, create jobs and stabilize energy prices involves converting the world's entire energy infrastructure to run on clean, renewable energy. United Nations, E3, Acadia Center, experts like Jeffrey Sachs of Columbia University, and even Bill Nye the Science Guy are all adding to the chorus. Consensus on benefits of renewed electrification!

4 Enter the Community Storage Initiative!

5 A Relatively Recent Convergence of Events Increasing technological electric end-use efficiency Heat pump space and water heating technology (200+% efficient) Meanwhile, less room for improvement on gas Decreasing Emissions Factors (Potential Regulation) Improved Heat Rates Other generation fuel switching (gas / renewable) Renewable Integration Need for end-use that can help integrate variable generations sources: Grid-interactive water heating Fuel Switch potential Electric vehicles, agricultural pumps, etc. (lower emissions)

6 Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction Goals Established on local, state, national, and international levels U.S. Goal: Reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the range of 17% below 2005 levels by 2020 Minnesota s Goal: reduce emissions 30% below 2005 emissions by 2025 and 80% below 2005 emissions by 2050 California s Goal: reduce GHG emissions by approximately 30% by 2020 and 80% by 2050

7 Renewable Goals 37 states have adopted binding targets or voluntary goals US recently setting a goal of 20% non-hydro renewables by 2030, which would be up from seven percent in 2014 These goals will have an increasing and lasting impact on the carbon dioxide emission profile of the grid

8 Emissions Rate (lbs CO2/MWh) Carbon Intensity of US Electric Generation ,400 1,300 1,200 1,100 1, Carbon Intensity of US Electric Generation, Source: Energy Information Administration 700 Historic ( ) Projected with EPA CPP ( )

9 Electric Grid Emissions Trends From , CO2 emissions per megawatt-hour declined by about 16% Currently, more than 30% of the overall fuel mix powering the electric grid is a non-co2 emitting source make up more than 30% In January-May 2015, over 65% of new electric generation capacity brought on-line nationwide was non-emitting sources. The other 35% was natural gas

10 What Are They Doing In California? California s has strong climate goals and high renewable penetration The Federal government is seeking to implement strong climate goals What is going on in California provides insights and they are looking hard at end-use electrification

11 Source: LBNL, California s Carbon Challenge Phase II Volume I: Non-Electricity Sectors and Overall Scenario Results Environmentally Beneficial Electrification" to Meet Climate Goals

12 Electricity s Benefits Are Underrated Even without heat pump technology, electric water heating has several advantages over water heating using fossil fuels. Better site energy efficiency, primarily through flexible location of heating units and no venting requirements. Ability to store and integrate renewable energy, primarily through load control and thermal storage.

13 ES-Select created by KEMA for Sandia National Lab Water Heaters The Most Cost-Effective Storage Not flashy, but has been reliable for decades and is cheapest solution available, and is HERE!!!! GETS is Very Low-Cost

14 Using Electric Water Heaters to Teach CA s Duck to Fly 1 million electric water heaters means that up to 4,000MW of load could be dispatched as needed, and that up to 10,000MWh per day could be shifted as needed. Regulatory Assistance Project Source: Regulatory Assistance Project,

15 Elec. Thermal Storage, DR / Load Control Some DR cuts load when energy use is high or supply is low. Thermal storage can make use of energy when it is available and stores it for later can cut use or add it: perfect for renewable integration. Grid Interactivity can take it even further, with water heaters proving frequency response and acting like a peaker plant. PJM 2012 Data

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22 Dr. Carl Hiller s Work Incorporated

23 Conclusion Lots of Options to Save $

24 Potential for CO2 Reductions Load Control

25 Coops and DR 10 percent of the nation s retail electricity sales, but 20 percent of actual peak reduction. Own nearly 25 percent of the nation s residential peak-load management capacity. Lead the industry in the deployment of advanced metering with 30.9 percent penetration. In a time of rapidly changing technology and policy, it is important to make a note of the existing technologies that have helped us achieve these results over the decades Sources of data: EIA, FERC

26 The Community Storage Initiative Storage Technology Utility Incentive Electric Water Heater Steele-Waseca Electric Vehicle Great River Energy Tesla Powerwall Battery Green Mountain Power Free water heater, discounted community solar panels Free wind power upgrade, discounted charging station Discounted energy services, Powerwall battery and/or installation

27 The Community Storage Initiative Vision Statement "Community Storage" is an emerging term for utilitysponsored programs that aggregate distributed energy storage resources that are located throughout a community, such as water heaters, electric vehicles, and interconnected storage batteries, to improve the operational efficiency of electric energy services to consumers. The Community Storage Initiative (CSI) is focused on collaborative information sharing and coordinated market development efforts in support of wide-scale implementation of energy storage technologies that are commonly located in communities across the country.

28 Supporting Community Storage Initiative

29 Supporting Community Storage Initiative

30 Keith Dennis Senior Principal, End-Use Solutions and Standards Phone: (703) Cell: (571)

31 Policy Background: Site and Source Energy Basics Site energy is simply the amount of energy (electricity, gas, etc.) consumed at the site. In the case of most buildings, site energy is just the metered energy, as reflected in retail utility bills. Source energy takes into account not just the energy consumed at the building, but also the losses incurred in production, transmission, and delivery of that energy. Source metrics are used in major federal programs like ENERGY STAR and DOE home energy rating tools

32 Site and Source Energy Basics Source: ENERGY STAR

33 ENERGY STAR Source to Site Ratios Energy Star asserts electricity is by nature less than 3X as efficient as gas for end use (by treating renewable energy like fossil fuel) Source: ENERGY STAR

34 Why Are These Metrics Important? This issue impacts the types of appliances used in homes and businesses and incentives available to consumers.

35 Source Energy Metrics Are Outdated Policymakers are using outdated information, such as the source energy metric, to evaluate the environmental attributes of electricity. This leads to policies that favor on-site combustion of fossil fuel over electricity use in homes and businesses.

36 New Research Examining the Source Metric Power System Engineering replicated the US government s methodology for calculating source energy under various scenarios. The source energy metric is a tool used in many energy efficiency policies to estimate the total amount of raw fuel that is used in transmission, delivery, production, and use of energy.

37 Where Does 3.14 Come From? These values can be computed directly from the Electricity Flow Diagram, included in the Energy Information Administration s Annual Energy Review. Keep 40.04, 14.01, and 1.04 from 2005 in mind for the next slide / ( ) = 3.09

38 The Values Used Treat Non-CO2 Emitting Grid Electricity as Input for Analysis Again / ( ) = 3.09

39 But Renewable Energy Is Converted to Btu Using Fossil Fuel Heat Rates!

40 Renewable Energy is Converted Using Fossil Heat Rates They Displace This makes the metric insensitive to fuel mix and is opposite the policy objective A similar problem occurs with using heat rate of nuclear, which doesn t emit CO2, and can t be used on-site. Heat Content of uranium doesn t make sense like it does for fossil fuel.

41 Example 1: All Coal Switched to Gas Using Energy Star s methodology, even if all coal were switched to gas, the source-site energy would still be ~2.8

42 Example 2: All Coal Switched to Renewables Using Energy Star s methodology, even if all coal were switched to renewable, the source-site energy would be ~3 (worse than switching to gas!)

43 New Gas Industry Paper More Substantial Flaws