Future Direction of AIM

Transcription

1 The 11 th AIM International Workshop February 2006 NIES, Tsukuba, Japan Future Direction of AIM Mikiko Kainuma National Institute for Environmental Studies 1

2 Monitoring Sub-theme 2 International Framework on Climate Change Assessment of Climate Policies toward Low Carbon Society Sub-theme 1 Visions for Low Carbon Society Medium-long term target International framework Analysis of climate policies Low carbon society in long-term context Long-term socio-economic scenarios International Framework Quantification of the effects of international frameworks Climate & Impact Modeling Probabilistic climate projection Socio economic scenario Sink, biomass resources climate change impacts Inventory data Model support for quantification Global satellite data International Framework Sub-theme 3 Model Development Policy Assessment 2

3 Sub-theme 1: Visions for Low Carbon Society Goal: Development of scenarios for Low Carbon Society through sustainable development 3

4 Sub-theme 1 Visions for Low Carbon Society - Japanese scenarios towards low carbon society Projection with consistency based on several dynamics such as macro-economic balance, industrial structure, household, consumption, lifestyle, transport demand, physical stock and Infra-structure - Low carbon society in Asia regions Scenarios of China, India, Korea, Thailand, Indonesia, Viet Num, etc. - Global stabilization Scenarios for low carbon society in world region. 4

5 Trajectory Archive data set of Energy Balance, Environmental Burden, and Cost 5 Scenario Development Processes Transition Model Snap shot Household production/lifestyle (identify effects of consumer behavior considering change of age/type of household/ environment-oriented preferences on energy service demand, transportation trip demand by econometric methods and estimate impacts of intervention scenarios) Passenger/Freight Transportation demand (parameter estimate of trip generation, modal share using statistics on person trip, traffic flow, freight flow and others. Service demand estimation assuming technology and behavior change) Energy supply and demand balance (adjusting seasonal/daily energy balance of electricity, heat, and hydrogen supply and demand considering infrastructure development) Energy technology bottom-up (technology selection of energy supply, conversion, consumption using econometric/engineering/management methods) Archive data set of Socio-economic change General equilibrium (investigate feasibility, economic impacts considering general equilibrium of approx. 40 services including energy at service and labor market with support of other s) Infrastructure/building dynamic (econometric/engineering bottom-up approach for residential/nonresidential housing, construction and retirement of energy supply facilities) Macro-economic (econometric for parameter estimate of supply-side potential productivity change, IS balance and calculation of BAU scenario) Population dynamic (cohort including birth/death, inter-regional/national migration) Archive data set of Technology development and diffusion Scenario, Storyline Technology development schedule for energy use, production, and consumption (R&D plan, expert judgment) Socio-economic scenario, Intervention scenario

6 Back-casting from future target world by the macroeconomy and industry structure dynamics Environmental pressure Technology development, socio-economic change projected by historically calibrated multi-sector econometric Forecasting Release of AIM result Required Calculation of required intervention policy and intervention by dynamic optimization multi-sector Checking year(2015) Back-casting Mitigation Technology development Policy intervention and Investment Checking year(2025) Service demand change by changing social behavior, lifestyles and institutions Long-term target year Reference future world Required intervention Normative target world

7 Why we need scenarios? Main elements to decide development path and GHG emissions in Japan Important elements to design low carbon society (LCS) Other important elements to decide development path and GHG emissions International Domestic International cooperation Technology RD&D Industrial structure Financial market Urban system Taxation international division of labor National strategy Energy supply system Transportation system ICT Consumption preferences International cooperation International trade mechanism Competition or slow life Innovation on ICT low birthrate and longevity Urban living /rural living Economic growth (BRICs and others) Innovative technologies Immigration /migration Industrial structure Centralization /decentralization Big government /small government Burden sharing for Japan and others Investigate the direction of LCS development Decide possible combination Given condition for LCS studies

8 Application to India Technologies in Scenarios: Short-term term Conventional Technology Paths Road infrastructures, Energy markets Gasoline hybrid vehicle, Bio-ethanol Ultra-critical boilers, IGCC Building insulations, Appliance standards 3200 Frozen Technology IA2 Nuclear Fission, Information highways Million Ton of CO 2 Emissions IB2 IA1 IA1T IB1 Fuel cell vehicle: H2 from natural gas Energy efficiency, Environment markets Bikeway, Advanced car sharing system Renewable energy technologies Waste recycling and reuse Virtual communication system Urban planning, Public transport 8

9 CO 2 per capita emissions (t-c/cap) UK US World China 1980 Canada France India 1990 Germany METI, Japan 2030 scenario IA2 IB Current per capita CO 2 emissions and Target Japan 2050 scenario Target for Low Carbon Economy 9

10 Sub-theme 2: Analysis on International Negotiation Process and International national Framework on Climate Change Goal: To make a proposal on a process to achieve an international agreement on climate change mitigation for years beyond 2012 International Politics Improvement of Kyoto Protocol Informal dialogue on beyond 2012 Kyoto Protocol s First Commitment Period Negotiation and dialogue for beyond A Framework beyond 2012 Research Agenda Analysis on current Kyoto Framework and mechanisms under Kyoto, such as international emissions trading and CDM Domestic climate policy of key countries Assessment of the existing mechanisms, and proposals for any new mechanisms if necessary A interim summary: a proposal for beyond 2012 Comments from key countries, especially those in the Asia- Pacific region Assessments on international process to start a negotiation on a framework on beyond 2012 Final goal: a proposal for beyond

11 Sub-theme 3: Cost-effect analysis of climate change policies Goal: Model development and application to assess climate change policies 11

12 Sub-theme 3 Cost-effect analysis of climate change policies 1) Model development to support Japanese climate policies toward 2013 and beyond 2) Model development in Asia countries and application through sustainable development analysis of Millennium Development Goals and portfolio of adaptation and mitigation policies 3) Global development to support international climate policies including emissions trading 4) Capacity building and dissemination 12

13 Development of country CGE AIM/Country link to global Resource Energy Air pollution Environmental policy assessment Water Agriculture Global Element of environment Solid waste Other s Landuse Environmental policy assessment End-use potential production Existing examples (improved in this project) 13

14 Development of global China Korea Japan Resource Water Environmental Energy policy assessment Solid waste Air pollution Other s Agriculture Landuse Linkage between global and country India Thailand Global environmental policy assessment Global water resource Global agricultural productivity Global enduse Linkage among global s Element of environment 14

15 Region-wise reduction potential in ,500 2,000 1,500 1, elaboration and expansion up to 2030 US$ /t-CO2 US$ 0-100/t-CO2 < US$ 0/t-CO2 15 Japan China India Indonesia Korea Thailand Other South-east Asia Other South Asia Middle East Australia New Zealand Canada USA Reduction Potential (Mt-CO2) EU-15 in Western Europe EU-10 in Eastern Europe Russia Argentine Brazil Other Latin America Africa Rest of the World Discount rate = 5%

16 Images of results Millennium Development Goals Domestic environment policy and economic development Number of people suffering from hunger (mil. peoples) million peoples million peoples Target B2 A2 B2+Economic support Number of poverty people (mil. peoples) Target B2 A2 B2+Economic support Globalism B1 Economy oriented A1 A2 Regionalism B2 IPCC/SRES Harmonization of 4 scenarios economy and environment population Agriculture Economy (Land use) Technology Energy Driving forces Stabilizing GHG concentration Consistency among climate policy, other environmental problems and economic development 16 Trend of CO2 emissions (1990=1)

17 Appreciate your participation! 17