Renewable Energy: Policy options & integration issues

Transcription

1 Renewable Energy: Policy options & integration issues CEEM 2007 Outline Sustainability context Renewable energy generation: status & costs Renewable energy policy options Integration into competitive electricity industries Renewable energy case studies - wind & PV Key issues with high levels of renewable energy penetration 2 Renewable Energy Policy & Integration Issues CEEM

2 Sustainability context for the electricity industry (IPCC COP7) Must also achieve resource adequacy: Short & long-term system security (availability & quality of supply) 3 Climate change emissions (Tonnes C per capita, Grubb 2006) 4 Renewable Energy Policy & Integration Issues CEEM

3 Oil market trends may reflect peak oil ( 5 Coal-fired power station approx 35 /MWh Renewable energy & coal comparison for Europe (IEA, 2006) Aust. non-hydro RE market shares (%) Bagasse 6 Renewable Energy Policy & Integration Issues CEEM

4 Low-emission generation cost projections for Australia (MMA, 2006) 7 Status of RE technologies: hardware perspective (IEA, 2006) 8 Renewable Energy Policy & Integration Issues CEEM

5 The most effective policy options depend on the context (Grubb, 2006) 9 Successful innovation requires both technology push & market pull (Grubb, 2006) 10 Renewable Energy Policy & Integration Issues CEEM

6 Renewable energy support policy taxonomy (Rivier, 2006; Enzesberger et at, 2002) medium/high impact Policy instruments low impact Legislative measures Non-legislative measures Direct control Economic based Player-initiated (voluntary) Information Supply push Demand-pull green pricing (many countries) Construction incentives Production incentives tender schemes (initial UK scheme) tradeable certificates (Australia, UK) feed-in tariffs (Germany) 11 Security & commercial regimes (global & local) Unreachable or unacceptable futures Emergency control Commercial regime Possible futures managed by decentralised decisions Present state 5 min Secure operating limits (probabilistic) Renewable energy Future state increases space future managed by decentralised uncertainty decisions but forecasts can help Time Security regime Possible futures managed by centralised decisions Growing uncertainty 12 Renewable Energy Policy & Integration Issues CEEM

7 European Wind Integration Study (System Operators, 0701) Scenario: High wind farm output in northern Europe Problems in all regimes:- governance, security, commercial, technical 13 Australian wind resource (Estimate of background wind (m/s) Australian Greenhouse Office) Approx km 14 Renewable Energy Policy & Integration Issues CEEM

8 Location of the renewable energy Largest current MW Planning Approved 329MW Under Construction 192MW 15 Growing size of wind farms * Under construction ** Planning Approved 16 Renewable Energy Policy & Integration Issues CEEM

9 Wind as a generation resource Resource Non-storable, variable and partly predictable Technology 95%+ availability, controllable conversion effects Output Non-storable, variable, partly predictable, controllable down 17 Key issues for wind energy integration Physical complexity: Shared, non-storable, time-varying primary energy flow; concerns about robustness to disturbances Commercial complexity: Electricity industry infused with short- to long-term risks that are difficult to commercialise (correctly allocate to industry participants) Institutional complexity: Shared issues in wind farm approvals, grid connection & management of power system security 18 Renewable Energy Policy & Integration Issues CEEM

10 Fault ride through Example 1 19 Fault ride through -Example 2 20 Renewable Energy Policy & Integration Issues CEEM

11 Illustration of complexity: managing supplydemand balance in the electricity industry Turbine mechanical power Thermal Power stations Hydro generators + _ Electrical power Industrial Commercial Wind farms Residential Kinetic energy in rotors of turbine-generators & motor-loads connected via the network For variations in frequency of bandwidth less than about 0.1Hz, KE (frequency) 2 Frequency is a measure of supply-demand balance: always varying due to fluctuations in the power flows associated with particular devices Wind energy is only one of many fluctuating power flows 21 Scheduled & non-scheduled generators in the NEM Scheduled Submission of dispatch offers Compliance with targets Causer-pay for ancillary services Ability to offer ancillary services Publication of individual outputs forecasts, offers and actual output Comply with technical standards Non-scheduled Includes intermittent Generation Are treated as negative demand Can only be curtailed (by NEMMCO) if system security is at risk NEW Publication of grouped outputs, forecasts and actual output New Technical Standards 22 Renewable Energy Policy & Integration Issues CEEM

12 Semi-Scheduled to be introduced for wind Scheduled Submission of dispatch offers Compliance with targets Causer-pay for ancillary services Ability to offer ancillary services Publication of individual outputs:- forecast, offered & actual Comply with technical standards Semi-Scheduled Submission of dispatch offers Causer-pay for ancillary services Ability to offer ancillary services Are treated as positive supply If involved in a constraint Compliance with targets if less than forecast Publication of data Not finalised yet Non-scheduled Are treated as negative demand Can only be curtailed (by NEMMCO) if system security is at risk NEW Publication of grouped outputs forecast and real New Technical Standards 23 A wind farm power curve from recorded data Key parameters for the wind farm: Cut-in wind speed: approximately 4 ms -2 Rated wind speed: approximately 15ms -1 Cut-out wind speed: 22 25ms Renewable Energy Policy & Integration Issues CEEM

13 Wind farm response to varying wind conditions 25 Simulated dispatch with 500MW wind in SA (Oakeshott, 2005) 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, /12/ :30 20/12/ :30 20/12/ :30 20/12/ :30 20/12/ :30 21/12/ :30 21/12/ :30 21/12/ :30 21/12/ :30 22/12/ :30 22/12/ :30 22/12/ :30 22/12/ :30 23/12/ :30 23/12/ :30 23/12/ :30 23/12/ :30 24/12/ :30 24/12/ :30 24/12/ :30 24/12/ :30 25/12/ :30 25/12/ :30 25/12/ :30 25/12/ :30 26/12/ :30 26/12/ :30 26/12/ :30 26/12/ :30 27/12/ :30 27/12/ :30 27/12/ :30 27/12/ :30 28/12/ :30 28/12/ :30 28/12/ :30 28/12/ :30 29/12/ :30 29/12/ :30 29/12/ :30 29/12/ :30 Ladbroke OSB-AG Northern PLAYB-AG PPCCGT Torrens B Torrens A Quarantine Total Wind Load Total Wind 26 Renewable Energy Policy & Integration Issues CEEM

14 Risks Changes in 5 wind farms The sum of wind farms is assuming no significant network constraints 27 Normalised Changes in 5 wind farms The sum of wind farms is assuming no significant network constraints 28 Renewable Energy Policy & Integration Issues CEEM

15 Risks Changes in 5 wind farms The sum of wind farms is assuming no significant network constraints 29 Normalised Changes in 5 wind farms The sum of wind farms is assuming no significant network constraints 30 Renewable Energy Policy & Integration Issues CEEM

16 ( AWEFS functional requirements, 31 (Ahern, Meteorology Today) 32 Renewable Energy Policy & Integration Issues CEEM

17 33 S1: Infra-red satellite map (BoM Aust,1125 UTC 24/4/05) 34 Renewable Energy Policy & Integration Issues CEEM

18 Low-pressure cell over southern Australia (BoM, 2006) 35 PV Market in IEA countries, (IEA PVPS, 2006) Figure 1 Cumulative installed grid-connected and off-grid PV power in the reporting countries Years ,000 3,500 Grid-connected Off-grid Installed PV Power (MW) 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Renewable Energy: Policy 1992 Options 1993 & 1994 Integration 1995Issues CEEM Renewable Energy Policy & Integration Issues CEEM

19 Australian PV Concentrator Technology Each dish has 112 curved mirrors which focus sunlight onto a central receiver, 500x concentration, 25kW Dishes are cooled & independently track the sun Suited to end of grid applications & CHP Installed in 6 diesel grids Another 30 dishes (750kW) for 3 NT Power and Water Authority diesel grids 150MW now funded for rural Victoria Solar Systems Pty Ltd: 220 kw PV Concentrator power plant at the Pitjantjara lands 37 Aust. Govt. Solar Cities program $75M over 5 years from 2006 to demonstrate high penetration uptake of solar technologies, energy efficiency, smart metering Aimed at improving the market for distributed generation and demand side energy solutions Tenders called 2005 must include matching funds, PV, efficiency, monitoring, advanced tariffs, marketing and financing strategies Eleven consortia short-listed from 23 applications Funds so far awarded to Adelaide & Townsville 38 Renewable Energy Policy & Integration Issues CEEM

20 PV Case Study for NSW Dept of Planning: Newington Solar Village (PV+SWH) Photo: BP Solar 39 Newington Solar Village 780 houses with 1kW PV; 199 houses with 0.5kW PV. Passive solar design, energy efficient appliances Loads av 16 kwh/day cf 7.5 design Load profile peakier than for normal houses 30 houses monitored July 04-June 05 Ave daily PV output per house 3.2 kwh (~20% of load) 2 systems faulty, when removed, 3.4 kwh/house ave, about 10% lower than expected (although 2005 may not be a typical year) Average peak output for 30 houses, 13 kw 40 Renewable Energy Policy & Integration Issues CEEM

21 Relationship between electricity use and temperature, Newington 41 PV output variability (30 houses) 42 Renewable Energy Policy & Integration Issues CEEM

22 Household Load and PV Output average over 30 houses 43 PV Output, Household Load and Temperature - Peak Summer Day, Newington 44 Renewable Energy Policy & Integration Issues CEEM

23 PV Output, Household Load and Temperature - Peak Winter Day, Newington 45 Annual Average PV Output (X10) and Homebush Bay Substation Load 46 Renewable Energy Policy & Integration Issues CEEM

24 PV Output, Homebush Bay Substation Load and Temperature - Peak Load Summer Day 47 Key technical issues for high-penetration renewable energy Design & demonstration of RE & distributed resources (generation, storage, end-use response) Advanced metering, communication & control for distributed resources Improved power electronic devices Compact, high-capacity & cost-effective reversible energy storage Mathematic modelling & forecasting for renewable energy generation & distributed resources 48 Renewable Energy Policy & Integration Issues CEEM

25 Key regulatory & policy issues for highpenetration renewable energy Institutional issues: Robust security regime with security-constrained dispatch Efficient commercial regime (operation & investment) Effective regulatory framework (network services) Compatible arrangements for gas industry Policy issues: Appropriate innovation in renewable energy technologies Correct location & timing for investment in renewables Forecasting for security & commercial regimes Active end-user participation (value, timing, efficiency) Skill development in all relevant areas 49 Key commercial issues for high RE Advanced auction-style electricity markets: Spot & derivative energy; ancillary services Within continually updated security constraints With active end-users supported by ESCOs With attention to equity issues Efficient network access regimes: Availability & quality; active end-user participation Renewable energy forecasting tools for: Renewable energy generators Other generators and end-users System operators & policy-makers Efficient financial mechanisms to counter un-costed fossil fuel externalities 50 Renewable Energy Policy & Integration Issues CEEM

26 Many of our publications are available at: 51 Renewable Energy Policy & Integration Issues CEEM