A National Energy Perspective

Transcription

1 Olkiluoto-3, Finland (Source: TVO) Olkiluoto-3, Finland (Source: Google) A National Energy Perspective Prof. Dr. Attila ASZÓDI Director Budapest University of Technology and Economics Institute of Nuclear Techniques CAETS/HAE Symposium, Budapest, Hungary June 26-29, 2013

2 Electricity supply in Hungary Annual electricity consumption ~ 43 TWh Large import share in electricity consumption The cheapest source at the moment Dependency on Russian natural gas (80%) Small scale use of renewables Largest contribution: Paks Nuclear Power Plant ~15 TWh energy production (i.e. 46% of the domestic production, 37% in electricity consumption in 2012) Primary energy sources of Hungarian electricity system in 2011 (Source: Hungarian Energy Office) Paks NPP: 4*500 MWe units (Russiandesigned and -constructed pressurized water reactors) Power-upgrade project Lifetime-extension project (from originally planned 30 years to 50 years) Planned shutdown: Paks NPP (Source: Google) Prof. Dr. Attila ASZÓDI 2

3 nettó villamosenergia-fogyasztás, TWh Net electricity consumption, TWh/year Development of electricity consumption Different design scenarios tény Fact várható Anticipated nagy Faster növekedés growth kis Slower növekedés growth 9000 MW 6400 MW 1,5 %/a 1,0 %/a Ins. Cap. MW Peak MW MW 8000 MW MW 7500 MW Due to the economics crisis measurable short term decrease of electricity consumption Source: Tombor Antal, MVM, Prof. Dr. Attila ASZÓDI 3

4 Remaining Replacement New capacity Design fuel Possible development of power plants Possible new capacities: MW 5000 MW 5000 MW Renewable Natural gas Oil 9000 MW Nuclear Renewable Gas Coal Coal Nuclear Prof. Dr. Attila ASZÓDI 4

5 Nuclear energy in the world Regional distribution of nuclear plants In June 2013: 434 nuclear plants are operating in the world with 370 GWe total installed capacity 69 NPP units are under construction State of the art: Gen3, Gen3+ (passive systems, increased redundancy, double wall containment, standardized designs) New constructions in Europe: Finland: Olkiluoto-3 France: Flamanville-3 (Source: IAEA PRIS) Large delays and cost overrun in both cases: lessons to learn concerning project management, licensing, education, quality control etc. Prof. Dr. Attila ASZÓDI Olkiluoto-3 construction (Source: Areva) 5

6 The effects of the Fukushima Daiichi accident March 11, 2011 historical earthquake and tsunami hit Japan 15 m high flooding at the Fukushima Daiichi NPP site Six boiling water reactors (BWR) Units 1-4: long term station blackout + loss of ultimate heat sink (no cooling for the fuel) Fuel melting due to insufficient cooling of the fuel Large amount of hydrogen generated and exploded in Units 1, 3, 4 Very large (~EBq) radioactive emission into the environment (with the explosions and with the temporary cooling systems) Level 7 accident on the INES (International Nuclear Event Scale) same as Chernobyl Very moderate health consequences (quick evacuation + lower fall-out on land) The well-known pictures from Fukushima and their consequence Source: IAEA PRIS Prof. Dr. Attila ASZÓDI 6

7 The effects of the Fukushima Daiichi accident Immediate effects Temporary shutdown of Japanese units (currently only 2 of 50 units are in operation) Shutdown of 8 reactors in Germany in March 2011 Case of Germany Traditionally anti-nuclear population, but 17 units operated at the beginning of 2011 with MW installed capacity After Fukushima accident decision on nuclear phase-out: all units will be shutdown until 2022 Energiewende shift from traditional energy sources to renewable sources (silent increase of coal and natural gas) Subsidy for wind and solar plants with long term contracts + guaranteed takeover of generated electricity CO 2 emmission increased in 2012 Grid instabilities Are we prepared for large scale electricity grid collapses? Effect on European electricity market prices Large role of private households on financing the subsidies Surcharge of 5.3 / kwh in 2013 (from 3.6 / kwh in 2012) Small (PV, wind) producers do not take part in grid development and do not contribute to frequency control Overproduction in renewables high German household electricity prices, while the wholesale market prices are low in Europe The German population still supports the transition but at what cost will the situation change? Prof. Dr. Attila ASZÓDI Shutdown in ben leállítva 2022-ig áll le NPPs and wind turbines in Germany Source: KTG, Wikipedia 7

8 Nuclear energy in the UK 16 operating nuclear units producing 18% of domestic electricity Very old GCR units almost all units will be shutdown until : new nuclear construction preparations started Nuclear site licensing eight sites were sold Generic Design Assessment design licensing process for originally 4, later 2 reactor types (EPR from Areva and AP1000 from Westinghouse) Electricity market reform for stabilizing economical framework for low carbon technologies (including nuclear) Carbon floor price ( 16 / t CO 2 from 2013 rising to 30 /t CO 2 in 2020) Contract for Difference (CfD) model special feed-in tariff contracts for long term to remove long-term exposure to electricity price volatility Hinkley Point C: two EPRs planned by EDF Energy Hinkley Point A,B (4 GCR units) and Hinkley Point C (EDF Energy, 2 EPRs planned) Prof. Dr. Attila ASZÓDI 8

9 Nuclear energy large supplier countries Russia 33 operating reactors (~10% share in electricity production) Plans to commission further 10 GWe until 2020 Export of VVER types after 1990: 5 operating units, 4 units under construction, 12 units under preparation VVER-1000 and VVER-1200 (Generation III) types China 17 operating reactors (2% share in electricity production), 28 units under construction, including 4 AP1000, 2 EPR units! France 58 operating units (only PWRs, 75% share in production), 1 EPR unit under construction in France Technology export: EPR (Areva) 3 units under construction abroad, + Atmea (Mitsubishi-Areva) Source: WNA Prof. Dr. Attila ASZÓDI Nuclear construction in China (Source: CBS) 9

10 Nuclear energy critical issues Main difficulties for new nuclear construction: Economical conditions Financing of the construction Long term conditions of the electricity market Heavy component manufacturing capacities limited (Japan, South-Korea, Russia, France) Instrumentation & Control issues Human resource management ensuring operating staff and appropriate authority, research, management personnel importance of education! Political risks Closing of the nuclear fuel cycle to be solved Reactor pressure vessel transportation at Doosan Heavy Industries (Source: Doosan) EPR control room (Source: Areva) Prof. Dr. Attila ASZÓDI Chalon heavy component factory (Source: Areva) 10

11 Future of nuclear Two years after Fukushima many countries resumed the construction or preparation of new nuclear constructions in the USA (the largest reactor operator in the world) two new units are under construction now after 25 years break newcomer countries: e.g. United Arabic Emirates, Jordan, Vietnam, Turkey OECD IEA World Energy Outlook 2012 Nuclear production can grow with 58% to 2035 The global share of nuclear production will decrease from 13 to 12% The main role has China, Korea, India and Russia 580 GWe installed nuclear capacity likely in 2035 The economical advantage of nuclear is not more so significant The future is uncertain, it depends on many economical-social-political factors Vogtle 3 First concrete pouring in March 2013 (Source: nuclearstreet.com) But nuclear remains an important player in electricity supply! VC Summer 2 Turbine Island construction in August 2012 (Source: nuclearstreet.com) Prof. Dr. Attila ASZÓDI 11

12 Future of nuclear Pros carbon-free (the largest low carbon energy source in the EU) high load factor (>90%) easy storage of nuclear fuel for years high security of energy supply low operational costs waste collected, not dispergated in the environment (Photo: Attila Aszódi) Cons safety has to be ensured for long term high investment costs political risks easy to be feared public acceptance waste repository (Source: IEA) Prof. Dr. Attila ASZÓDI 12

13 Perspectives of nuclear energy in Hungary The decision on the new units depends on world economy and on European electricity market Possible reactor types and vendors: AP1000 (Westinghouse) Atmea-1 (Mitsubishi-Westinghouse) EPR (Areva) AES-2006 (Atomstroyexport) APR1400? (KHNP) Main aspects of the decision Safety aspects CDF<10-5 /year, technical solutions for severe accidents Technical aspects Generation III+, no prototype reactor, at least 60 years lifetime with >90% availability Economical aspects Competitive generating cost (short construction period!) Financing of the construction EPR, VVER-1200 (AES-2006), AP1000 and the Atmea-1 (Source: npp.hu) Area for new units Site of Paks NPP (Map: Google) Prof. Dr. Attila ASZÓDI 13

14 Perspectives of nuclear energy in Hungary EU directive: all member countries must have a radioactive waste management plan by 2015 Hungary: 2 operating facility for low and intermediate level waste Püspökszilágy site for non-power origin waste (shallow disposal facility, commissioned in 1976) National Radioactive Waste Repository in Bátaapáti (250 m deep disposal facility, commissioned in 2008/2012) For NPP spent fuel: interim storage facility at Paks (modular, air-cooled facility for ~12000 fuel assemblies) Final spent fuel disposal: research to be started soon at Boda Final goal: to close the fuel cycle (with recycling the spent fuel) Allegro research facility: gas-cooled fast demonstration reactor P th =75 MW, 500 o C coolant temperature, He primary and secondary coolant Regional (V4G4) project Start of operation: Investigation of thorium-based fuel cycle (introducing fast breeder reactors) Radwaste geological disposal in Bátaapáti (Photo: A. Aszódi) Design of Allegro Reactor (GFR) (Source: IAEA) Prof. Dr. Attila ASZÓDI 14