Current gas consumption

Transcription

1 4/3/217 GAS SUPPLY AND DEMAND CHALLENGES NOW AND IN 1% RENEWABLE ENERGY SYSTEMS IDA S ENERGY VISION 25 BRIAN VAD MATHIESEN bvm@plan.aau.dk Joint Gas Workshop FutureGasDK and CITIES DTU, Lyngby, April3 217 SUSTAINABLE ENERGY PLANNING RESEARCH GROUP AALBORG UNIVERSITY Current gas consumption Total 133 PJ 24 PJ in Households 14+2 PJ in Power/heat ~3 PJ in Industry ~7 PJ in Services + losses 2 1

2 4/3/217 4 YEARS = STABIL CONSUMPTION LESS CO2-EMISSIONS COST-EFFECTIVE TRANSITION Indeks '82 '84 '86 '88 '9 '92 '94 '96 '98 2 '2 '4 '6 '8 '1 Energiforbrug Danmark Danmark BNP 1 Primary Energy Consumption, PJ Wind Power Biomass Photo Voltaic 197 ' Olie Naturgas Kul og koks Andet Biomasse Vindmøller Olie til transport Danish Potentials 3 THE BIOMASS CHALLENGE Global energy perspective Danish energy perspective EJ / year 8 6 PJ / year Current Future Max Min Current Future Max Min Primary energy supply Biomass potentials Primary energy supply Biomass potentials 4 2

3 4/3/217 THE BIOMASS CHALLENGE EU Residual biomass potential: Less than 7 EJ EU Energy Crops: Less than 15 EJ Primary Energy Supply (TWh) 2, 18, 16, 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, EU27 Primary Energy Supply & CO2 in 21 at Different DH Penetrations while also Utilising RE Resources Present 12% DH 3% DH with RE 5% DH with RE IEA HRE 4, 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 CO2 Emissions (Mt) Other renewable Biomass Natural gas Oil Coal Nuclear CO2 Emissions 5 What are the challenges? We want to decrease the use of fossil fuels but: 1. The current system is extremely flexible 2. We cannot replace these with biomass only 3. We need to use intermittent renewable ressources! We can increase wind power but.. There is a limit with the current energy system design.there is a need for a new system design 6 3

4 Wind power production (TWh) Ref. CHP reg. Ref. no CHP reg. 4/3/217 Solutions on the table 1. Interconnectors and trading 2. Flexible electricity demands and smart grids 3. Integrated efficient Smart Energy Systems OPTIONS FOR SYSTEM INTEGRATION Transmission abroad V2G Flexible consumption Electricity storage Excess production (TWh) Open energy system Ref. CHP reg. Ref. no CHP reg Wind power production (TWh) Production of hydrogen CAES systems Stopping of wind turbines Regulation of CHP plants PES excl. wind (TWh) Closed energy system Electric cars Heat pumps Electric heating 4

5 Wind power production (TWh) Ref. CHP reg. Ref. no CHP reg. 4/3/217 OPTIONS FOR SYSTEM INTEGRATION Transmission abroad V2G Flexible consumption Electricity storage Excess production (TWh) Open energy system Ref. CHP reg. Ref. no CHP reg Wind power production (TWh) Production of hydrogen CAES systems Stopping of wind turbines Regulation of CHP plants PES excl. wind (TWh) Closed energy system Electric cars Heat pumps Electric heating ENERGY STORAGE THERMAL STORAGE 1-4 /KWH PUMP HYDRO STORAGE 175 /KWH NATURAL GAS UNDERGROUND STORAGE.5 /KWH OIL TANK.2 /KWH 5

6 4/3/217 RENEWABLE ENERGY STRATEGIES FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT Savings in Energy Denmand Efficiency improvements in energy production FLEXIBLE TECHNOLOGIES INTEGRATED ENERGY SYSTEMS Renewable energy sources (RES) IDA s Energy Vision 25 6

7 4/3/217 Savings are essential Electricity savings (25%) Heat savings (42%) (From 132 kwh/m2 to about ca. 8 kwh/m2 in 25) Savings in industry Transport growth but modal shift to more efficient transport Technologies. Buildings in 1% renewable energy systems Ambitious heat savings essential (also in operational phase) Heat savings together with renovations. Buildings (new and old) should be seen as part of the system and not be optimised on site or as a local group. District heating to be expanded to cover 66%. Focus on shift to lower temperature sources. Ground source heat pumps should primarily be used outside district heating areas (supplemented with solar thermal & biomass) Implement district cooling where possible, Year (primo) Total heated area (Million m 2 ) Total heat demand (TWh/year) Specific demand (kwh/m 2 ) year growth factor Table 3: Historical development in the main parts of the Danish building stock. 7

8 4/3/217 IDAS ENERGIVISION Industry Growth in demands (4%) Priority: 1. Savings 2. More district heating and district cooling for industry 3. Replace fossil fuels with electricity consumption 4. Replace fossil fuels with solid biomass 5. Replace fossil fuels with biogas 6. Replace fossil fuels with green gas (synthetic fuels) Larger use of low temperature sources for district heating in nearby heat networks. 8

9 4/3/217 Transport More public transport and direct use of electricity Personal transport in electric vehicles and plug in electric vehicles Heavy transport on electrofuels. The key to sustainable biomass consumption. 35 Passenger Transport Energy Consumption Per 1 Gpkm (PJ) Direct Electrification Battery Electrification Hydrogen Fermentation (Fuel excl. Ships) to Methanol Fermentation (Energy) to Methanol THESE PATHWAYS WERE ASSESSED TO QUANTIFY HOW MUCH BIOMASS AND ELECTRICITY ARE REQUIRED TO SUPPLY THE SAME TRANSPORT DEMAND USING THESE PATHWAYS Biomass Hydrogenation to Methanol: Steam Gasification Biomass Hydrogenation to Methanol: Partial Oxidisation Gasification CO2 Hydrogenation with CCS (Including Biomass) to Methanol CO2 Hydrogenation with CCS to Methanol CO2 Hydrogenation with Carbon Trees to Methanol Co-electrolysis with CCS (Including Biomass) to Methanol Co-electrolysis with CCS to Methanol Co-electrolysis with Carbon Trees to Methanol Biogas Hydrogenation to Methane Biomass Hydrogenation to Methane CO2 Hydrogenation with CCS (Including Biomass) to Methane CO2 Hydrogenation with CCS to Methane CO2 Hydrogenation with Carbon Trees to Methane Elec. H2 Methanol/DME Methane Co-electrolysis with CCS (Including Biomass) to Methane Co-electrolysis with CCS to Methane Co-electrolysis with Carbon Trees to Methane Electricity (PJ) Bioenergy (PJ) Total (PJ) 9

10 4/3/217 HYDROGENATION OF GASIFIED BIOMASS (FOR HEAVY TRANSPORT) METHANOL, DME OR METHAN? POTENTIAL FOR NO BIOMASS! Wind, solar, PV and wave power 5. MW Onshore Wind, 14. MW Offshore Wind 5. MW PV, 3 MW bølgekraft (Plan B: More wind or PV) 2,3 TWh large solar thermal (,3 TWh today) 2,2 TWh individual solar thermal (,1 TWh today) 4,6 TWh geothermal 1

11 Reference CEESA Recommendable Electric heating Electrolyzers Electric vehicles Flexible demand Large heat pumps Electricity demand Reference CEESA Recommendable Electric heating Electrolyzers Electric vehicles Flexible demand Large heat pumps Electricity demand 4/3/217 SMART ENERGY SYSTEMS - ARE CRUCIAL IN 1% RENEWABLE ENERGY SYSTEMS SOLUTION A cross sectoral and coherent energy system solution Smart Electricity Grids to connect flexible electricity demands such as heat pumps and electric vehicles to the intermittent renewable resources such as wind and solar power. Smart Thermal Grids (District Heating and Cooling) to connect the electricity and heating sectors. This enables thermal storage to be utilised for creating additional flexibility and heat losses in the energy system to be recycled. Smart Gas Grids to connect the electricity, heating, and transport sectors. This enables gas storage to be utilised for creating additional flexibility. If the gas is refined to a liquid fuel, then liquid fuel storages can also be utilised. GRIDS AND STORAGES IN SMART ENERGY SYSTEMS Electricity Consumption Capacity [MW] Electricity Consumption Capacity [MW] 22 11

12 4/3/217 IDA s Energy Vision 25 Intelligent use of storage Electrolyses with high capacity (P2G) District heating systems Heat pumps with high capacity large and small (Power to heat) Electricity for transport Direct in trains and electric vehicles In electrofuels for heavy duty vehicles Ressourcer Konvertering Udveksling og lager Forbrug Biomasse og brændsler Forbrændingsmotorer Brændsels Vind m.fl. Fluktuerende elproduktion Electrofuels lager El udveksling Mobilitet (køretøjer) Elbiler Fleksibelt elforbrug El lagring Kraftvarme Varmepumpe Køling Varmelagring Varme Sol m.fl. Fluktuerende varmeprod. Gas challenges and solutions strategies Phase out Natural gas (from 133PJ 37 TWh/year) Savings District heating Electrification Bioenergy Future gas grids are complex, local, national and adapted to future needs (not current) Use of existing gas storages is complex but needed Use of biogas and gasified bioenergy for industry and CHP (mainly direct w no hydrogenation) CO2 from bioenergy can be used for fuels in transport (store wind power in gaseous/liquied fuels) Storage in liquid and gaseous fuels 12

13 4/3/217 Robust economy and efficient use of biomass 3 FUEL PRICE LEVELS 1 ELECTRICITY PRICE LEVELS (15-15 /MWH) 6 CENTRAL SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS MORE THAN 4 SIMULATIONS OF THE ENTIRE SYSTEM HOUR-BY-HOUR Socio economic costs (billion /year) DEA Wind IDA 25 DEA Wind IDA 25 DEA Wind IDA 25 DEA Wind IDA Central scenarios cost structure + 4% interest rate Verying fuel & electricity prices Vehicle costs + 2% Electricity exchange Investments Fuels O&M Minimum cost Cost range according to fuel and electricity prices Main conclusions 1% is possible technically and feasible Future need to focus on transmission between the sectors instead of only between countries A flexible system is robust with regards to costs and biomass consumption. It uses storages intelligently It provides more jobs and lower health costs than fossil fuel systems 13