Global opportunities for sustainable bioethanol. Lessons from Brazil. Marcelo Poppe. CGEE Center for Strategic Studies and Management

Transcription

1 Global opportunities for sustainable bioethanol Lessons from Brazil Marcelo Poppe CGEE Center for Strategic Studies and Management

2 World Global biofuel market: expansion, land use, productivity, energy balance, and sustainability

3 World Biofuels today Reproduced from Unep, February The environmental food crisis

4 World Public policies regarding biofuels

5 World New bioethanol markets Canada United States Mexico Colombia Sweden United Kingdom Nederland Germany France Swiss Spain Italy Venezuela Russia China India Thailand Philippines Japan Peru BRAZIL South Africa Australia Argentina New Zealand World bioethanol consumption: 50 billion liters in billion liters in 2010

6 Source: World Watch Institute Source: FAO, 2006 World Agricultural land availability

7 World Land use needs for sugarcane bioethanol to provide a 10% blend in the global gasoline consumption (E10) 2005 basis Brazilian bioethanol production: 265 thousands b/d Brazilian land use: 2.6 million ha of sugarcane crops Gasoline world consumption: 20 million b/d Global ethanol production needs for E10 => 2.4 million b/d World land use needs => 24 million ha of sugarcane crops to be dispersed among tropical humid Countries in Latin America, Caribbean, Africa, Asia and Oceania

8 World Sugarcane producers 130 countries instead of 20 oil providers Source: adapted from Laura Tetti, 2005

9 Source: IEA International Energy Agency (2005) World Bioethanol productivity and energy balance Ethanol yields (liters per hectare)

10 World Bioethanol energy and GHG emission balance Feedstock Energy balance (output/input) Avoided GHG emission Sugarcane 9,3 91% Corn 0,6 2,0 30% a 38% Wheat 0,97 1,11 19% a 47% Sugarbeet 1,2 1,8 35% a 56% Cassava 1,6 1,7 63% Hydrolysis (potential) 8,3 8,4 66% a 73% Source: based in Dai et al., 2006; EBAMM, 2005; IEA, 2004; Macedo et al., 2007; and Nguyen et al., 2007

11 Source: Doornbosch and Steenblik, OECD 2007 World Bioethanol GHG emissions reduction

12 Brazil Sugarcane bioethanol Brazilian experience

13 % Brazil Renewable and non-renewable sources share CO 2 emissions: Brazil: 1.7 t/toe World: 2.4 t/toe 87,3 93,8 54,2 45,8 12,7 6,2 Brasil (2007) World (2005) OECD (2005) Renewable sources Non-renewable sources

14 Brazil Domestic energy supply Non renewables 54,2% Renewables 45,8% 9.3% 5.8% 1.6% 15.1% 12.6% 37.5% 3.2% 14.9% Hydropower Firewood Sugarcane Other Renewable Oil & Oil Products Natural Gas Coal Uranium Source: Brazilian Energy Balance, Source: MME BEN

15 Production and Import of oil (thousand b/d) Brazil Energy pattern - transport sector Energy Consumption Transport Sector (1975) Kerosen 5,6% Alcohol 0,4% Electricity 0,2% Diesel oil 37,3% Energy Consumption Transport Sector (2005) Kerosen 4,9% Alcohol 13,3% Electricity 0,2% Natural gas 3,3% Gasoline 50,8% Fuel oil 5,6% Gasoline 25,9% Fuel oil 1,5% Diesel oil 50,9% Import Production Year

16 Million liters Brazil Bioethanol and gasoline consumption jan/00 jun/00 nov/00 Source ANP and UNICA abr/01 set/01 fev/02 jul/02 dez/02 mai/03 out/03 mar/04 ago/04 jan/05 jun/05 nov/05 abr/06 set/06 fev/07 jul/07 Gasoline Ethanol dez/07 mai/08 out/08

17 Brazil Bioethanol from sugarcane 25 billion litters produced & 5 billion litters exported Energetic biomass cost = US$ 1.4/GJ (industrial countries goal for 2020) 420 industrial units (100 new ones) >70,000 producers; ~1,000,000 jobs Knowledge frontier expansion : genetics, biotechnologies, hydrolysis...

18 Brazil Bioethanol for vehicle Large experience using bioethanol as mixed fuel for vehicle (1925) ~ 5% Proálcool (1975): up to 25% of bioethanol blended in the gasoline (E 25) 5 million pure bioethanol powered cars manufactured Flex-fuel motors using the E 25 blend, bioethanol, or a mix of both (2003) 7 million flex-fuel cars manufactured; 90% of the 2008 new car market Only E 25 & bioethanol delivered by all the 35,000 Country s fuel station

19 Brazil Diversifying bioethanol use

20 Brazil Land use Farming (2007) Area (Mha) Soya 23 Corn 12 Sugar cane 7 Agriculture 70 Cattle 180 Country total area 851 Mha (100%) Rural properties area 355 Mha (42%) Cultivated land area 70 Mha (8%) Sugarcane cropland for fuel 3,5 Mha (0.5%) Amazon forest 400 Mha Pantanal 13 Mha Atlantic rain forest 3 Mha

21 Brazil Rural properties land use 400 Milhão de ha Área em descanso ou não utilizada Lavouras Matas e florestas Pastagens Source: IBGE, 2007)

22 Brazil Soil & climate potential for sugarcane culture without irrigation with irrigation salvation (< m 3 /ha.year) Amazon Rainforest Pantanal Atlantic Forest Other important preservation areas Above 12% slope area (75 Mha) High Good Medium Inadequate (> 80 t/ha) (> 70 t/ha) (> 60 t/ha) Source: CGEE NIPE/Unicamp - CTC

23 Source: CGEE NIPE/Unicamp Brazil Scenarios of land use needs for sugarcane production (2025) *Taking in account agro-ecological criteria and existing temporary and permanent cultures Global ethanol consump tion Technology (Mha) Sugar (Mha) Ethanol internal market (Mha) Ethanol exports (Mha) Total land (Mha) Available land* (Mha) Scenario 1 E5 102,5 bl/y Present Progressive Scenario 2 E bl/y Present Progressive % of Pantanal area 2.6 times Atlantic rain forest area 20% - environment reserve 8

24 Brazil Land use change AP RR AP Tropical Forest AC AM RO MT PA TO MA PI BA CE RN PB PE AL SE Savannas Grasslands Amazon Forest Atlantic Forest Savanna Steppe Pantanal wetland South Grassland GO MS SP PR SC RS MG ES RJ North Amazonia Center West Cerrado MAPITO and Bahia Northeast coast Southeast South Savannas Savannas and Atlantic Forest Atlantic Forest and Grasslands BLUM - ICONE.

25 Source: CTC /77 77/78 78/79 79/80 80/81 81/82 82/83 83/84 84/85 85/86 86/87 87/88 88/89 89/90 90/91 91/92 92/93 93/94 94/95 95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 tc/ha m 3 /ha Source: UNICA 85,00 80,00 75,00 70,00 65,00 60,00 55,00 50,00 45,00 40,00 Brazil Technological advance over 30 years l/tc tc/ha m 3 /ha 7,50 7,00 6,50 6,00 5,50 5,00 4,50 4,00 3,50 3,00 2,50 Percentageof Cultivated Area- Brazil Source: Donzelli CTC (2008) 90,0 80,0 70,0 60,0 50,0 40,0 30,0 20,0 10,0 Legenda: RB SP RB72454 SP RB RB SP SP SP SP SP RB NA56-79 CB45-3 0,

26 Brazil Industrial water reduction Source: Elia Neto - CTC (2009)

27 Brazil Agro-ecological indicators Water and soil lost Fertilizer consumption Sweet potato Rainwater loss (%) Corn Eucalyptus Beans Sugarcane Potato Soy Cotton Rice Peanut Cassava Beans Castor bean Soil loss (ton/ha/year) Rice Wheat Corn Soy Sugarcane Orange Coffee Cotton ,0 0,2 0,4 0,6 0,8 1,0 ton/ha Source: Donzelli, 2005

28 Sugarcane of high biomass: energy cane Brazil Genetics new varieties adapted to local soils and climate and resistent against diseases Biofactory: quick multiplication

29 Brazil Improving sugarcane agriculture Biological control of pests Entrants decrease otesia flavipes against Diatraea saccharalis Effluent as fertilizer

30 Brazil Next generation Low impact mechanization Recycle Hydrolysis Gasification Pyrolysis Biorefineries

31 Source: CGEE NIPE/Unicamp Brazil Productivity prospects (agro-industrial technologies) Sugar cane 70 t/ha 82 t/ha 94 t/ha Industrial technology l/tc l/ha l/tc l/ha l/tc l/ha Conventional 85 6, , ,400 Hydrolysis , ,600 Total 85 6, , ,000

32 World Biofuel production awareness Careful planning Exclusion of protect areas Regards to food security Crop choices matching geo-climate conditions Productivity, and energy & GHG emission balances Agricultural best-practices Products and processes certification Environmental, social and economic sustainability

33 World Biofuel favorable externalities Regional, country & local development Energy security enhancement GHG emission reduction Local pollution reduction Oil imports reduction Oil exports expansion Currency saving Job creation Rural migration contention

34 Ford Model A (1896) fueled by pure ethanol [Fuel Testers (2008)] World Notable perception I foresee the time when industry shall no longer denude the forests which require generations to mature, nor use up the mines which were ages in the making, but shall draw its raw material largely from the annual products of the fields [Henry Ford, Modern Mechanics (1934)]

35 Book in four languages launched during the International Conference on Biofuels, held in São Paulo (November 2008) Partnership: BNDES, CGEE, ECLAC and FAO Coordination: Luiz A. Horta Nogueira

36 Thank You! Marcelo Poppe

37 Brazil Social indicators Average wage 600,0 500,0 400,0 300,0 200,0 100,0 0,0 93,3 Rice Banana 69,4 Coffee 366,8 Sugar cane 528,4 Citros 122,9 Cassava 148,4 259,0 Corn Agriculture 2,700, ,5 Soya Grapes 24,5 27.0% Sources: Oliveira, F. C. R. and Hoffmann, R., ESALQ/USP (2009) ,0% 35.4% 80.7% 59.6% 2.5% Agriculture 36,7% 9.7% 62.1% 50. 2% 3