Climate Change and Water Resources in Asian Pacific Cities. Richard Berk UCLA Chris Cocklin University of Monash

Transcription

1 Climate Change and Water Resources in Asian Pacific Cities Richard Berk UCLA Chris Cocklin University of Monash

2 Overview of Talk The 3 Related Themes Goals of the Research The Research Design Some Illustrative Policy Questions Some Illustrative Findings from Kobe

3 Overview of Talk The 3 Related Themes Goals of the Research The Research Design Some Illustrative Policy Questions Some Illustrative Findings from Kobe

4 The 3 Related Themes Large Cities in Asia

5 The 3 Related Themes Large Cities in Asia Water Resources for Those Cities

6 The 3 Related Themes Large Cities in Asia Water Resources for Those Cities Climate Change

7 The 3 Related Themes Large Cities in Asia Water Resources for Those Cities Climate Change

8 Cities are a key nexus for human/ environmental interactions.

9 Cities are a key nexus for human/ environmental interactions. But are they the problem or the solution?

10 Cities in Asia FACT About 50% of humanity now live in urban areas.

11 Cities in Asia FACT About 50% of humanity now live in urban areas. FORECAST About 75% of humanity will live in urban areas by 2050.

12 Cities in Asia FACT The most rapid urbanization the world has ever seen is occurring in the Asia-Pacific region.

13 Cities in Asia FACT The most rapid urbanization the world has ever seen is occurring in the Asia-Pacific region. FORECAST Example: by 2050, some 600 million Chinese are expected to migrate from rural areas to cities or will be living in areas that became cities.

14 Conclusion Many of the most important impacts of human activities on the environment will be from cities (locally, regionally, and globally). Cities certainly play a big role in the problem and must play a big role in the solution.

15 Conclusion Many of the most important impacts of human activities on the environment will be from cities (locally, regionally, and globally). Cities certainly play a big role in the problem and must play a big role in the solution. But with that said...

16 Question: How sustainable are the cities of the future, even in principle?

17 The 3 Related Themes Large Cities in Asia Water Resources for Those Cities Climate Change

18 Water is necessary... as a key ingredient in human, physical and biological processes.

19 Water is necessary... as a key ingredient in human, physical and biological processes. as s a resource for humans: for drinking, cooking, hygiene, irrigation, transportation, and industrial processes (e.g., as a solvent) where both quantity and quality matter.

20 Water is necessary... as a key ingredient in human, physical and biological processes. as s a resource for humans: for drinking, cooking, hygiene, irrigation, transportation, and industrial processes (e.g., as a solvent) where both quantity and quality matter. for wildlife habitats.

21 Water is necessary... as a key ingredient in human, physical and biological processes. as s a resource for humans: for drinking, cooking, hygiene, irrigation, transportation, and industrial processes (e.g., as a solvent) where both quantity and quality matter. for wildlife habitats. for physical phenomena such as microclimates.

22 The 3 Related Themes Large Cities in Asia Water Resources for Those Cities Climate Change

23 Global Climate Change On the average the planet is getting warmer.

24 Global Climate Change On the average the planet is getting warmer. There are already lots of biological and physical markers (e.g., earlier spring thaws, later fall departures for song birds).

25 Global Climate Change On the average the planet is getting warmer. There are already lots of biological and physical markers (e.g., earlier spring thaws, later fall departures for song birds). Now there is pretty strong evidence that human produced greenhouse gases are a key factor.

26 Global Climate Change On the average the planet is getting warmer. There are already lots of biological and physical markers (e.g., earlier spring thaws, later fall departures for song birds). Now there is pretty strong evidence that human produced greenhouse gases are a key factor. Global warming is likely to affect the amount of precipitation, when during the year it falls, whether it falls as rain or snow, and the intensity of storms.

27 Overview of Talk The 3 Related Themes Goals of the Research The Research Design Some Illustrative Policy Questions Some Illustrative Findings from Kobe

28 Goal of the Research: To follow the water by embedding cities in the hydrological cycle

29 Follow the water by embedding cities in the hydrological cycle 1. This is a problem involving natural processes and human institutions and the interactions between them in the context of climate change.

30 Follow the water by embedding cities in the hydrological cycle 1. This is a problem involving natural processes and human institutions and the interactions between them in the context of climate change 2. An example of natural/human interactions

31 An example of natural/human interactions Snow falls Snow melts River

32 An example of natural/human interactions Regional Reservoir Aqueduct Local Reservoir Water Treatment

33 An example of natural/human interactions Distribution System Water Use Disposal Sewers and Storm Drains Waste Water Treatment

34 An example of natural/human interactions Wetlands/Aquifers/Rivers/Streams Vegetation (Transpiration) or Oceans Evaporation

35 Follow the water by embedding cities in the hydrological cycle 1. This is a problem involving natural processes and human institutions and the interactions between them in the context of climate change 2. An example of natural/human interactions 3. But suppose it gets warmer and we get rain rather than snow, or the precipitation comes at different times of the year and in different storm patterns?

36 Overview of Talk The 3 Related Themes Goals of the Research The Research Design Some Illustrative Policy Questions Some Illustrative Findings from Kobe

37 Research Design for the Study of Research Feasibility A set of Large Asia-Pacific Cities (Kobe, Tianjin, Bangkok, Bandung,, Suva, Singapore, Karachi, Phnom Pen, Kuala Lumpur)

38 Research Design for the Study of Research Feasibility A set of Large Asia-Pacific Cities (Kobe, Tianjin, Bangkok, Bandung,, Suva, Singapore, Karachi, Phnom Pen, Kuala Lumpur) Key variables measured in time and space within each city: pooled cross-section time series design within and between cities

39 Research Design for the Study of Research Feasibility A set of Large Asia-Pacific Cities (Kobe, Tianjin, Bangkok, Bandung,, Suva, Singapore, Karachi, Phnom Pen, Kuala Lumpur) Key variables measured in time and space within each city: pooled cross-section time series design within and between cities Data types

40 Data Types Climate data e.g., precipitation, temperature, wind speed and direction, etc.

41 Data Types Climate data Water transport data how the water is moved from place to place (e.g., pipes, aqueducts, etc)

42 Data Types Climate data Water transport data Water use for different user types residential, commercial, industrial, agricultural, and so on (e.g., total household water use by month)

43 Data Types Climate data Water transport data Water use for different user types Water losses

44 Data Types Climate data Water transport data Water use for different user types Water losses Runoff volume and quality (e.g., salinity, suspended solids, heavy metals, haloforms,, natural organic matter, bacteria)

45 Data types Waste water volume and quality e.g., at sewage treatment plants

46 Data types Waste water volume and quality Land use and land cover e.g., digitized maps showing green space

47 Data types Waste water volume and quality Land use and land cover Water sources in addition to precipitation e.g., use of ground water, water imported from rivers or reservoirs

48 Data types Waste water volume and quality Land use and land cover Water sources in addition to precipitation Institutional settings and regulations e.g., who is responsible for providing water to city residents and how is it priced

49 Data types Waste water volume and quality Land use and land cover Water sources in addition to precipitation Institutional settings and regulations Functioning of ecosystems

50 Data types Waste water volume and quality Land use and land cover Water sources in addition to precipitation Institutional settings and regulations Functioning of ecosystems Public health

51 Research Design for the Study of Research Feasibility A set of Large Asia-Pacific Cities (Kobe, Tianjin, Bangkok, Bandung,, Suva, Singapore, Karachi, Phnom Pen, Kuala Lumpur) Key variables measured in time and space within each city: pooled cross-section time series design within and between cities Data types Data attributes

52 Units Data attributes For example, total cubic meters per month, total millimeters per hour

53 Data attributes Units Spatial span: the geographical areas are represented For example, the entire city

54 Data attributes Units Spatial span: the geographical areas are represented Temporal span: the time periods are represented For example,

55 Data attributes Units Spatial span: the geographical areas are represented Temporal span: the time periods are represented Spatial scale: the spatial units For example, by city district

56 Data attributes Units Spatial span: the geographical areas are represented Temporal span: the time periods are represented Spatial scale: the spatial units Temporal scale: the temporal units For example, by month

57 Data attributes Units Spatial span: the geographical areas are represented Temporal span: the time periods are represented Spatial scale: the spatial units Temporal scale: the temporal units Holes in the data: for what data types, locations, and time periods might the data be incomplete or missing?

58 Data attributes Units Spatial span: the geographical areas are represented Temporal span: the time periods are represented Spatial scale: the spatial units Temporal scale: the temporal units Holes in the data: for what data types, locations, and time periods might the data be incomplete or missing? Errors in the data For example, amounts of ground water used are only rough estimates

59 Data attributes Units Spatial span: the geographical areas are represented Temporal span: the time periods are represented Spatial scale: the spatial units Temporal scale: the temporal units Holes in the data: for what data types, locations, and time periods might the data be incomplete or missing? Errors in the data Media on which the data could be provided For example, diskettes, GIS electronic files, web-based downloading

60 Overview of Talk The 3 Related Themes Goals of the Research The Research design Some Illustrative Policy Questions Some Illustrative Findings from Kobe

61 Some illustrative policy questions What are the peak use periods during the course of a day/year, and how are these likely to be affected by climate change?

62 Some illustrative policy questions What are the peak use periods during the course of a day/year, and how are these likely to be affected by climate change? This information is critical because the supply of water has to match peak load demand, not average demand.

63 Some illustrative policy questions Which household activities are the most water intensive?

64 Some illustrative policy questions Which household activities are the most water intensive? Clearly, these are the activities in which it may be most cost-effective to intervene.

65 Some illustrative policy questions What are the local possibilities for water use substitutes and/or use of reclaimed water (e.g. sanitation)?

66 Some illustrative policy questions Where are the opportunities for rapid and effective top down interventions (e.g. water metering, building codes)?

67 Some illustrative policy questions How can greater community involvement address water quality and demand issues (e.g. pooling of community resources to build water infrastructure for poor localities)?

68 Some illustrative policy questions Which industries are especially water intensive/polluting and where in their operations are cost-effective changes most effectively made?

69 Some illustrative policy questions Which industries are especially water intensive/polluting and where in their operations are cost-effective changes most effectively made? This information can be used to develop targeted policy incentives through cleaner production programs or financial incentive programs.

70 Some illustrative policy questions What aspects of urban form contribute to the degradation of water or the over-consumption of water? (e.g. mixing industrial and domestic waste water; building-based heating and cooling systems)

71 Some illustrative policy questions What policies implicitly contribute to high levels of water consumption or degradation (e.g. industry subsidies, differential water rates)?

72 Some illustrative policy questions How adequate are water drainage networks, sewage treatment plants another water infrastructure given projected climate change coupled with projected population growth and industrial transformation?

73 Some illustrative policy questions What are the impacts of local water quantity and quality on the ability of wetlands to provide their usual ecological services?

74 Overview of Talk The 3 related themes Goals of the research The Research design Some illustrative policy questions Some illustrative findings from Kobe

75 Some illustrative findings from Kobe What s s happening to the climate?

76 Figure 1. Average Temperature as a Function of Year ( ) 1.92e e e e+03 2e+03 Year It s getting warmer on the average with more year-to-year variation in average temperature, especially since the early 1980s. Overall increase about 1 degree C over 70 years.

77 Figure 2. Average High Temperature as a Function of Year ( ) 1.92e e e e+03 2e+03 Year There was not been much change in the average high temperature until the 1970s at which time there began rather dramatic increases. Overall increase of about.5 degrees C over 70 years.

78 Figure 3. Average Low Temperatures as a Function of Year ( ) 1.92e e e e+03 2e+03 Year There was a more rapid increase in average low temperature except for the 1960 s. Overall increase of about 1.5 degrees C over 70 years.

79 Figure 4. Annual Rainfall in Millimeters as a Function of Year ( ) 1.92e e e e+03 2e+03 Year There has been a slight increase and then a slight decrease in total rainfall over the 70-year period. Net, not much change overall.

80 Figure 5. The Number of Large Storms (> 30 mm) as a Function of Year ( ) 1.92e e e e+03 2e+03 Year The number of large storms per year has decline dramatically, although the rate of decline has slowed since the 1970s. Other data not shown indicate that the number of smaller storms has increased dramatically and the number of clear days has declined. So, the overall amount of rain has not changed much, but the pattern of rainfall has.

81 Some illustrative findings from Kobe What s s happening to the climate? What s s happening to the demand for water?

82 Figure 6. Populations as a Function of Year ( ) 1.92e e e e+03 2e+03 Year Population has grown nearly linearly except for the dramatic decline during World War II and more briefly after the 1995 Kobe earthquake in which over 5000 people died, over 200,000 were left homeless, and about 70% of the water supply system was inoperable.

83 Figure 7. Residential Land Use in Hectares as a Function of Year ( ) 1.96e e e e+03 2e+03 Year Residential land use has been increasing linearly with little year-to-year variation.

84 Figure 8. Residential Water Use as a Function of Year ( ) 1.96e e e e+03 2e+03 Year Residential water use has been increasing linearly with some downward variation in the 1940 s and after the 1995 Kobe earthquake.

85 Figure 9. Response Surface for Residential Water Use as a Function of Population and Residential Land Use Rem lin trend O to e(o H) aaa Scaling OLS Full quad V Recall/Extract Case deletions H: POPULATION V: Water Used by Households O: Land Used for Dwellings H O Rock Pitch Roll Yaw

86 Figure 9. Response Surface for Residential Water Use as a Function of Population and Residential Land Use

87 Figure 9. Response Surface for Residential Water Use as a Function of Population and Residential Land Use Population and residential land use are positively and strongly related to residential water use.

88 Figure 9. Response Surface for Residential Water Use as a Function of Population and Residential Land Use Population and residential land use are positively and strongly related to residential water use. Holding population constant, each hectare increase in land for residential use increases water used by about 13,000 cubic meters per year.

89 Figure 9. Response Surface for Residential Water Use as a Function of Population and Residential Land Use Population and residential land use are positively and strongly related to residential water use. Holding population constant, each hectare increase in land for residential use increases water used by about 13,000 cubic meters per year. This may be a quality of life issue due to more modern plumbing, household appliances, and yards.

90 Figure 9. Response Surface for Residential Water Use as a Function of Population and Residential Land Use Population and residential land use are positively and strongly related to residential water use. Holding population constant, each hectare increase in land for residential use increases water used by about 13,000 cubic meters per year. This may be a quality of life issue due to more modern plumbing, household appliances, and yards. Holding residential water use constant, each additional person increased the water used by about 100 cubic meters per year.

91 Figure 10. Land Used in Hectares for Business as a Function of Year ( ) 1.96e e e e+03 2e+03 Year Land used for business increased dramatically in the middle 1980 s.

92 Figure 11. Business Water Use as a Function of Year ( ) 1.96e e e e+03 2e+03 Year Despite large increases in business activity, water used by businesses increased rapidly until the late 1970 s and then leveled off. Water reuse is one explanation.

93 Figure 12. Industrial Water Use as a Function of Year ( ) 1.96e e e e+03 2e+03 Year Industrial water use has been declining dramatically and linearly.

94 Figure 13. Land Use in Hectares as a Function of Year ( ) 1.96e e e e+03 2e+03 Year Despite great increases in industrial activity, water use has declined substantially.a change shift away from heavy industry (e.g., from steel to electronics) and to water saving technology are two explanations.

95 Some illustrative findings from Kobe What s s happening to the climate? What s s happening to the demand for water? Conclusions for Kobe

96 Conclusions for Kobe: A Best Case Scenario A water-rich, affluent and technically sophisticated society

97 Conclusions for Kobe Given climate variation to date, water supplies are adequate. One can to an important degree decouple water demand from natural climate variation.

98 Conclusions for Kobe Given climate variation to date, water supplies are adequate. One can to an important degree decouple water supply from natural climate variation. Water quality superb (high quality with little variation).

99 Conclusions for Kobe Given climate variation to date, water supplies are adequate. One can to an important degree decouple water supply from natural climate variation. Water quality superb (high quality with little variation). Increases in quality of life and population increase residential water use.

100 Conclusions for Kobe But increases in business and industrial activities can occur while water use declines substantially. One can significantly decouple economic development from water use.

101 Conclusions for Kobe But increases in business and industrial activities can occur while water use declines substantially. One can significantly decouple economic development from water use. On the horizon, however, is inflow to Lake Biwa, which is significantly fed by snowmelt. If it gets warmer, what then? Decline in the amount and quality of Lake Biwa water?

102