Overall development in energy consumption and CO2 emission in the Sonderborg area in the period

Transcription

1 2015 monitoring report Overall development in energy consumption and CO2 emission in the Sonderborg area in the period Conclusion overview of monitoring report In 2015 CO 2 emissions in the Sonderborg area were reduced by a further 5 percentage point, and the reduction constitutes an accumulated 35 % in relation to the baseline. The largest contribution to the reduction in 2015 was a markedly lower CO 2 factor for imported electricity. The most important factors that helped drive CO 2 development locally in the Sonderborg area in 2015 were: Installed solar cell capacity rose to 17.2 MW (compared to 14.8 MW in 2014), corresponding to a rise of 16 % A sustained fall in energy consumption (a fall of 1.6 %) Continued conversion to district heating and a fall in the consumption of natural gas for individual heating that corresponded to 11 % Rising consumption of natural gas of 11 % in the area s manufacturing companies (e.g. tileworks, industry, food) The statement on the CO 2 emission follows methodically the global standard Global Protocol for Community-Scale Greenhouse Gas Emission (GPC), but is based on the methodical delimitations described in ProjectZero s Masterplan from Figure 1: Development in the Sonderborg area s accumulated CO2 reductions Figure 1 shows the Sonderborg area s accumulated CO 2 reduction since 2007 and the expected reduction towards The black points/markings in the figure indicate partial objectives for the CO 2 emission in endelig.pdf 1

2 2015, 2020 and 2025, respectively. In relation to the baseline 2007, the accumulated CO 2 reduction in 2015 makes up 35 %, corresponding to an accumulated CO 2 reduction of around 242,600 tco 2. As the figure shows, the 2015 objective was to realise a 25 % reduction, but this happened already in 2014, and Sonderborg is thus well on the way to realising the 2020 objective of a CO 2 reduction of 50 %. The remaining CO 2 emission of 448,900 tco 2 will thus have to be brought down to 0 in the period until 2029 to realise the Sonderborg area s ProjectZero objective. The report s data basis, etc. is indicated in attachment 1, where also the monitoring report s graphs are shown in a larger format. 1.1 Premises and delimitations The monitoring report builds on the same data basis as it did in The calculations are based on received and validated data that are updated in the previously developed monitoring/calculation tool. The most important premises and delimitations related to the calculations are as follows: - CO 2 emission from imported electricity from the rest of Denmark is calculated on the basis of Energinet.dk s Environmental Declaration of 1 kwh electricity. - The allocation method for coproduction of electricity and heat has, as in previous years, been calculated using the 125 % method. - All consumption related to heating has been climate-corrected. - The Danish Energy Agency s annual electricity and heat survey has not yet been published. The district heating plants energy consumption has therefore been calculated on the basis of the reports they have sent to be used in the agency s survey. - Consumption of biomass for heating of individual homes is based on retrievals from Sonderborg Municipality s Building and Dwelling Register, which may mean that the actual consumption is bigger. - The national surveys of oil consumption related to transport and manufacturing processes are not expected to be published until at the end of 2016, which is why these parameters have been held constant on the 2014 level. 2 In spite of this, consumption of oil is falling, which can be explained by the monitoring system s statistical method, which couples national and local populations and consumption of electricity in order to determine the Sonderborg area s consumption of oil. 2 A comprehensive sensitivity analysis has been prepared that shows possible uncertainties on the basis of this source of error. 2

3 1. Status for CO2 reductions and energy efficiency improvement Figure 2: Climate-corrected energy consumption in relation to energy sources used by end users. 2.1 Generally falling energy consumption Figure 2 shows the climate-corrected, final energy consumption by end users in Sonderborg. The area s total energy consumption fell by 15.4 % in the period Energy consumption fell by 1.6 % in 2015 and thus conformed to trends seen in recent years. In terms of the graph s energy sources, it should be noted that the oil consumption includes oil for manufacturing processes, heating and road transport. The consumption of natural gas covers only the direct gas consumption by end users in private homes and in industry, whereas natural gas consumption by the district heating and combined heat and power plants is included in the survey as district heating. Figure 4 further specifies the total fuel consumption of the heating plants in the Sonderborg area. The consumption of coal relates solely to coal used by the area s tileworks in the manufacturing process. 2.2 Energy consumption in relation to purpose Figure 3: Total energy consumption in relation to purpose 3

4 Energy consumption for heating (heat supply) was reduced by 3 % in In terms of the area s industrial companies, there was a rise in natural gas consumption of 11 %, which, among other things, can be ascribed to a greater level of activity. The rise in the consumption of natural gas was partly neutralised by the total savings related to coal and electricity and the consequently falling consumption of oil. Oil consumption related to the transport survey has been held on the 2014 level because more recent statistics (as previously mentioned) are not yet accessible. The low consumption in the graph was caused by changes in population, which are used to scale down the national figures to make them fit the Sonderborg area. Also when it comes to lighting and electrical devices, less electricity is used, which is a result of lower consumption of electricity in trade and service and public institutions. 2.3 Green district heating The slightly increasing consumption of fuel related to district heating can be ascribed to further conversions from other heating methods to district heating. This applies especially to Gråsten Fjernvarme district heating plant, which completed its network expansion to Egernsund in In this area 121 homes have already been converted. Natural gas consumption has mainly risen as a consequence of the restart of production by one of the area s cogeneration units. The Sonderborg area s district heating companies are implementing a transformation of their heat production from natural gas and fossil fuels to biomass, geothermal energy, solar heat and electricity. This effort is anchored in the heat plan that has been approved by the municipality (2015). Since 2008 less electricity has been produced by the combined heat and electricity (CHP) plants, which has resulted in a reduction of the consumption of natural gas. Electricity production from the district heating plants fell by 82 % in the period Figure 4: Fuel mix at the heating plants in the Sonderborg area 4

5 As indicated in Figure 4, since 2011, the drastically falling share of fossil fuels used for district heating has resulted in a total reduction of almost 34,000 tco 2. On the basis of a rising share of biomass and sustainable energy and yet not fully implemented project proposals, a further fall in district heating s consumption of fossil fuels and thereby lower CO 2 emission can be expected in the years ahead. 2.4 Green electricity 2015 was a relatively good wind year, as was Production of electricity from wind turbines made up 37.9 GWh in 2015 compared to 37.6 GWh the year before, based on existing wind turbines. Figure 5: Green electricity production in the Sønderborg area The establishment of new solar cell plants also contributed to the larger production of renewable energy in Electricity production from solar cells made up 14.7 GWh in 2015 compared to 12.6 GWh the year before. In total, the Sonderborg area s solar cells and wind turbines produced around 53 GWh of CO 2-neutral electricity in 2015 compared to 50 GWh the year before, which was a rise of 5 %. 3. Benchmark with selected statistics The following is a benchmarking of development in the Sonderborg area with selected key figures for the national figures for Denmark. All consumption of oil in the statistics is based on national figures, which is why benchmarking in this field does not make sense. 5

6 3.1 Consumption of electricity According to Energinet.dk, consumption of electricity in Denmark in 2015 rose by 0.4 % compared to On the basis of this, it is a positive development that almost 1.8 % of electricity has been saved in the Sonderborg area Consumption of natural gas According to the Danish Energy Agency s preliminary energy statistics, Denmark s gross consumption of natural gas rose by 1.4 % in Consumption of natural gas in the Sonderborg area rose by 9.8 %. As earlier mentioned, the rising consumption should be ascribed to the restart of natural gas-based power planted heat production and growth in specific industries in the Sonderborg area. If these factors are eliminated, there is a fall of 4 %. Natural gas consumption for individual heating was reduced by 11 %. This marked fall was, among other things, caused by a change to district heating, replacement of old gas furnaces with other kinds of heating and energy renovations in private homes. 3.3 Sustainable electricity production in the Sonderborg area If one compares the installed solar cell effects in the Danish municipalities with one another, then Sonderborg Municipality is doing well. With a total installed effect of 17.2 MW, Sonderborg Municipality has Denmark s fourth-largest installed solar cell effect. Ahead of Sonderborg are Ringkøbing-Skjern, Vejle and Aarhus municipalities. 5 The wind turbine capacity in the Sonderborg area was 14.7 MW as of June 16, This corresponds to a place as number 52 out of 81 municipalities in the national survey The area s CO2 emission in relation to fuels Figure 6 shows the Sonderborg areas CO 2 emission in relation to energy sources. While the CO 2 emission from natural gas, oil and coal relates directly to a reduction in consumption of the fuel in question, district heating and electricity are produced by means of a mix of different fuels. The resulting CO 2 emission from these types of energy therefore changes continually in relation to the mix of fuels used. The national electricity emission factor in 2015 was markedly lower compared to that of 2014 because of bigger production from the national wind turbines and the import of electricity from Sweden and Norway. 3 Source: ( ) 4 Source: Preliminary energy statistics 2015, 5 Source: Solar cells per municipality, downloaded d Source: Solar cells per municipality, downloaded d

7 The mix of fuels used to produce one kwh of average electricity in Denmark consisted in 2015 of 19 % coal and lignite, 6 % natural gas, 58 % wind, water and sun, 13 % waste, biomass and biogas, 0 % oil and 4 % nuclear power. 7 Figure 6: CO2 emission in relation to fuels Overall, CO 2 emission in 2015 related to electricity, district heating, gas, coal and oil fell by 37,700 tco 2 compared to 2014, of which the around 28,800 tco 2 came from the fall in the CO 2 emission from the total consumption of electricity. The CO 2 reduction from electricity thus constitutes 76 % of total reduction. If the emission factor for imported electricity was held constant on the 2007 level (445 gco 2/kWh), the Sonderborg area s accumulated reduction would make up 22 % at the end of 2015 instead of the 35 % that are now calculated. Denmark s green conversion has thus in the period since 2007 contributed 13 percentage points to the Sonderborg area s conversion. Figure 7 shows the historical development in the Sonderborg area s CO 2 emission since Figure 7: Total annual CO2 emission for the period Source:

8 3. Sensitivity Assessment As mentioned above, at the time of the preparation of this report some national data are still not available that traditionally do not become available until the end of For this reason, and as a part of the monitoring report, a sensitivity analysis has been prepared to make it possible to assess the influence of the data that are still not at our disposal on the end result. The data that are still not available include the final national oil consumption (available at the end of 2016), Sonderborg Municipality s energy consumption (available October 2016) and the Danish Energy Agency s electricity and heat survey (available October 2016). The uncertainties are mainly associated with national oil consumption because data from the other data sources have been taken directly from the area s district heating companies reports used for the electricity and heat survey. As indicated in Figure 8, the uncertainty of the area s oil consumption has great influence on the CO 2 emission from transport while the municipality s energy consumption has a minimal influence on the monitoring result. On the basis of Danish Oil Industry Association s Energy notes & statistics , oil consumption is expected to rise a little, but this will have very little influence on the end result. 8 On the basis of the publications above, the final 2015 monitoring report is expected to be available in early July : Sensitivity analysis of selected statistics This monitoring report was prepared by Nicolas Bernhardi, ProjectZero and reviewed by consultant engineers from Niras. 8 Source: Danish Oil Industry Association, 2016, p. 12,

9 Attachment Selected method for allocation of fuel consumption for KV % Reduction in relation to baseline % 96.61% 90.63% 90.77% 88.28% 77.90% 77.22% 70.36% 64.91% Reduction in relation to baseline 0.00% 3.39% 9,37% 9.23% 11.72% 22.10% 22.78% 29.64% 35.09% Annual (tonnes) Purpose/CO2 (tonnes) (climate-corrected 65 %) Heating and hot water Lighting and electrical devices Manufacturing processes Road transport SUM Sector/CO2 (tonnes) (climate-corrected 65 %) Citizens Trade and service Industry and agriculture Other public institutions The municipality Transport users SUM Energy source/co2(tonnes) (climate-corrected 65 %) Electricity District heating Natural gas Oil (incl. LPG from the municipality) Coal and Coke (from the tileworks only) Biomass SUM Purpose/MWh (climate-corrected 65 %) Heating and hot water Lighting and electrical devices Manufacturing processes Road transport SUM

10 Selected method for allocation of fuel consumption for KV % Segments /MWh (climate-corrected 65 %) Citizens Trade and service Industry and agriculture Other public institutions The municipality Transport users SUM Energy source/mwh (climate-corrected 65 %) Electricity District heating Natural gas Oil (incl. LPG from the municipality) Coal and coke (from the tileworks only) Biomass SUM Fuel division into FV and KVV [MWh] Gas oil Natural gas Waste Biogas Wood and and biomass waste Woodchips Straw Bio-oil Solar power Geothermics Electricity SUM

11 11

12 12

13 13

14 14

15 15

16 16

17 17

18 18