Integrated Assessment Model for the Global Socio economic Loss AIM Applied Equilibrium Model

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1 13th Asia-Pacific Eco-Business Forum in Kawasaki Feb. 16 th 2017 Future Eco City Session: Eco-city Challenge toward De-carbonization Society -Through Collaboration among Industries, Public and Academia- Prof. FUJITA, Tsuyoshi Director of Socio-environmental Systems Research Center, National Institute for Environmental Science, Japan Alliance Professor of Nagoya University With Dr. FUJII Minoru

2 Integrated Assessment Model for the Global Socio economic Loss AIM Applied Equilibrium Model Climate condition represents 1.5, 2.5, 3.5, 4.5 increase of global average temperture from 18th Century Global GDP Loss Hasegawa et al. (2016) 2

3 Theory and Practices for Industrial Symbiosis End-of Pipe Technology LCA Research Sustainable Development Industrial Ecology 1977 Cloud. Industrial Ecosystem 1989 Frosh, R. A. Industrial Ecosystem 1993 Ayres, R. Industrial Metabolism 1994 UNU Pauli, Gunter. Zero-emission 1994 Allemby, Graedel Industrial Ecology 3

4 Industrial Symbiosis and Urban Industries to empower cities by circularization (Kawasaki and Kitakyushu are pioneers in cities) 4

5 Target and Accomplishment of Japanese Eco-towns Material Flow of Traditional Industrial Parks Symbiotic Material Flow in Ecotowns or Eco-Industrial Parks Conventional material flow: No-circulation Virgin materials: largely depends on import Wastes: Disposal based on provisions of the Waste Disposal and Public Cleaning Law Recycle materials: Not used Local material circulation: no use of recycle materials Circular material flow of Eco-towns Virgin materials: part of virgin materials are substituted by recycle materials Wastes: Disposal based on provisions of the Waste Disposal and Public Cleaning Law Recycle materials: Use of recycle materials mainly provided from outside the city Local material circulation: to some extent 5

6 Eco-town area as demonstration project for Sound material cycle society METI & MOE approved Eco-Town Plans for 26 areas as of the end of January 2006, and they provided financial support to 62 facilities located within the appropriate areas. Forming the basis of capacity that totally 2.18 mil t of wastes were treated Edited by Prof. Fujita, T. Published by METI,2006 Distribution of Japanese Eco-towns R.V. Berkel, T. Fujita, J. of Env. Management, Vol.90,pp , 2009 Distribution of Total Investment Subsidy projects in 24 Eco- Towns 600mil. US$ Distribution of Total Investment 60 projects in 24 Eco-Towns 1.6 bil. US$ 6

7 Evaluation of Circular Facilities in 26 Eco-towns Reduction of Natural Resources; 900,000.ton /yr CO2 Emission Reduction 480,000 t-co2/yr Circular use ratio of by-product 92% Intra-eco-town circulation ratio 61% (310) 24% Procurement areas unknown CRs procured from outside the prefecture CRs procured from outside the Eco Town Plan region but within the prefecture (130) 10% (70) 5% CRs procured from within the same Eco Town Plan regions (830) 64% CRs procured (1,300) 100% CRs utilized (1,200) 92% FPs/RMs produced (780) 60% CRs used as energy, or reduced in volume (470) 36% Recycling residue disposed of (60) 5% (Unit: 1,000 tons) Recycling residue disposed of Supply areas unknown (40) 3% Resources circulated outside the prefecture Resources circulated outside the Eco Town Plan regions but within the prefecture (70) 5% (6) 0% (110)9% Resources circulated within the Eco Town Plan regions (580) 45% S. Ohnishi, T. Fujita, J. of Cleaner Production, Vol.33(1), pp , 2012 Eco Town Plan regions Outside the Eco Town Plan regions but within the prefecture Outside the prefecture 7

8 Implementation of EIP system into the society Hard Environ. Technologies Substitutive Processing Eco-town Promotion Law Cleaner Production Recycle Technologies End- of Pipe Treatment Technologies Resource Excavation Processing Assembly Consumption Soft Social Technologies Waste Landfill Green Procurement Reuse Recycle Regulation/ Subsidy Green Purchase Waste Regulation

9 Three Keys for Sustainable Eco-Industrial Conversion from Experiences in Japan Innovative Societal (regulation / subsidization) System Transition Double Circularity for Material and Energy network Smart Green supply chain management through ICT 9

10 Social system to sustain the circularization in Eco-towns Establishment of social system and business model along supply chain from mining to waste for low carbon and sound material cycle society Electricity Mining Transpor tation Material Process Consumption Waste Red stand for social system Co-processing, Heat/energy recovery resource circularization in the region Cleaner production Design for Env. Green purchasing Green/regional consumption Regional credit Logistic for circularization/monitoring system Green supply chain management in integrated urban and regional area 10

11 Eco-town Innovation Projects by Ministry of Environment, Research committee to identify the effects of 26 national eco towns and their projects - Evaluation procedure for low carbon and environmental emission reduction effects - Extensive key technologies or policies for green supply chain management and regional resource circularization Eco town innovation projects Proposals for Model Eco-towns Eco-town Innovation Projects 2011, 2012, 2013 Model Eco-towns Hokkaido (2012 Akita(2012 Solution and Improvement Validation of innovative circularization projects Kitakyushu 2011 Green Innovation Business scheme design Extension for national projects Osaka 2011 Kawasaki

12 Total costs (billion JPY/yr) National Guideline for the Circular Region Planning Modeling results: Cost and scale Optimal scales of circularization is also discussed and we made quantitative analysis based on the spatial information of the distribution of solid waste in Tokyo Metropolitan Region with 30 million population. The results are incorporated into the national planning guideline for circularization region. Without capacity constraint With capacity constraint Numbers of hosting cities cost of incineration 39% transportation costs 30% construction cost 4% 12 operation costs 27% X. Chen, T. Fujita, et.al, J. of Industrial Ecology, Vol. 16(1), pp ,

13 Variation of Eco-Industrial Parks(EIP) Strategies in Eco-towns URBAN REDEVELOPMENT TYPE EIP Recycle goods retail & sale* Ecological consulting company* Sustainable technology research company* Chen and Fujita et. al., Euro. J. of Operation Research, 2013 Environment conscious commuting system LRT, Pedestrian Path Cement factory Kitakyushu Environmental Information Business Support CCR Clean Energy Supply System Energy Storage System* INDUSTRIAL SYMBIOSIS TYPE EIP Ecological equipment manufacturing EIP Center; Demonstration building* Environmental data bank Collaborative marketing purchase Waste collection and recycling -Eco-material, Recycled Material -Design for environment Chemical factory Environmental communication* Fertilizer Green Institute (Minneapolis) Cape Charles Sustainable Technology Park (Virginia) Environmental education* Rural Area Farm Urban Area Residential Districts CITY-FARM COLLABORATION TYPE EIP Fuel Cell Compost Methane Fermentation Hokkaido Akita, Osaka Organic waste Methane fermentation Composting Heat Heat Petro chemical factory Heat Fly ash Industrial symbiosis type Kawasaki, Minamata Oil Heat Power plant* Brownfield Neighborhood Water Front Industrial complex Plastic recycle center* Building material recycle center* Collaboration reverse logistics District heat supply PRODUCT REMANUFACTURING TYPE EIP 13

14 Bio/life science Industrial symbiosis in Kalundborg Power generation & material industry Treatment or recycling facility City 14

15 TJ 160, , , ,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 Refinery Chemical Energy demand /TJ Kawasaki Synergy Network Future scenario Power generation Waste heat /TJ potential Waste heat Waste heat networking among industries with proximity to power generation LNG Power generation Waste heat Biomass Power generation Chemical Paper Waste heat LNG Power generation Waste heat Incineration Waste heat Steel work 15

16 Smart Symbiosis Initiatives for Eco town Innovation Energy and consumption demand control system for urban sectors Weather information Energy demand information Waste and material Energy Prediction of power generation Information support for optimizing local and regional material and energy circularization Urban Waste Energy demand response incineration methane Operation information High value substitutive By-product information Smart industrial complex supported by synergetic information network among industries Local energy supply and demand Local symbiosis Demand Urban and Regional symbiosis Power plant Steel Cement Chemical 16

17 Industrial Collective Monitoring System Overview Image 1. Selecting 2. Monitoring of monitoring points facilities / factories The points expecting large energy saving are selected based on site survey Urban Area 3. Data analysis and solution design Factory scale solution EIP scale solution Region scale Stakeholders meeting Cloud server #Monitoring device is used for verification after implementation Electricity Factory A Factory B EIP Raw material Fuel Pretreatment FM Sensor Sensor Assembling / Processing Heat Boiler Sensor Finishing Cooling Chiller Sensor Product Sensor Factory C 17

18 Promoting Projects between Japan and Overseas through Eco-town Collaboration Overseas governmental organizations Menu for industry/government/ private sector collaborative support framework and support including international organizations Japanese governmental organizations Research institutions Overseas local governments Recycle Industries Recycle Industries Overseas firms, research consortiums Collaboration based on intercity agreements, etc. on policy information, social system information, human resources International publicprivate sector projects consortiums promotion of model projects Eco-town governments Research institutions circulatory firms Recycle Industries Japanese firms, research consortiums 18

19 National Centers for Green Innovation Univ Insti. business Univ Insti. AIT MOEJ NIES IGES Green Innovation Centers U.of Tokyo Large business Small and M business business 19

20 Related Papers X. Chen, T. Fujita, et.al. The Impact of Scale, Recycling Boundary and Type of Waste on Urban Symbiosis: An Empirical Study of Japanese Eco-Towns, Journal of Industrial Ecology, 2012 Satoshi Ohnishi, Tsuyoshi Fujita, Xudong Chen, Minoru Fujii Econometric Analysis of the Performance of Recycling Projects in Japanese Eco-Towns, Journal of Cleaner Production, (modified), 2011 Vol.40(3), pp.46-51, 2011 The Circular Regions and its Deployment of Base Formation pp T. Fujita, et.al. 3-2 Regional Management of Waste Circulation and Eco-Industrial Networks Establishing a Resource-Circulating Society in Asia: Challenges and Opportunities, pp.1-24, UNU Press, 2011 Vol.38, pp , 2010 Y. Geng, T. Fujita,X. Chen; Evaluation of Innovative Municipal Solid Waste Management through Urban Symbiosis: A Case Study of Kawasaki, Journal of Cleaner Production, Vol.18, pp ,2010 S. Hashimoto, T. Fujita et. al. Realizing CO 2 Emission Reduction through Industrial Symbiosis: A Cement Production Case Study for Kawasaki, Journal of Conservation and Recycling, Vol.54(10), pp , 2010 R. V. Berkel, T. Fujita, Shizuka Hashimoto, Yong Geng Industrial and Urban Symbiosis in Japan : Analysis of the Eco-Town Program Journal of Environmental Management, Vol.90,pp , 2009 R.V. Berkel, T. Fujita, et.al. Quantitative Assessment of Urban and Industrial Symbiosis in Kawasaki, Japan, Environmental Science & Technology, Vol.43, No.5, pp , 2009 Looi-Fang Wong, Tsuyoshi Fujita, Kaiqin Xu Evaluation of Regional Bio-Energy Recovery by Local Methane Fermentation Thermal Recycling Systems, Journal of Waste Management,Vol.28, pp , l Vol.35, pp89-100, pp Vol.33 pp , 11,2005 Vol.28,pp ,