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2 0 C Food Projected Impacts of Climate Change Global temperature change (relative to pre-industrial) 1 C 2 C 3 C 4 C 5 C Falling crop yields in many areas, particularly developing regions Possible rising yields in some high latitude regions Falling yields in many developed regions Water Ecosystems Small mountain glaciers disappear water supplies threatened in several areas Extensive Damage to Coral Reefs Significant decreases in water availability in many areas, including Mediterranean and Southern Africa Rising number of species face extinction Sea level rise threatens major cities Extreme Weather Rising intensity of storms, forest fires, droughts, flooding and heat waves Events Risk of Abrupt and Increasing risk of dangerous feedbacks and Major Irreversible abrupt, large-scale shifts in the climate system Changes

3 Stabilisation and Commitment to Warming 5% 400 ppm CO 2 e 95% 450 ppm CO 2 e 550 ppm CO 2 e 650ppm CO 2 e 750ppm CO 2 e Eventual temperature change (relative to pre-industrial) 0 C 1 C 2 C 3 C 4 C 5 C

4 Impacts of climate change: The sting is in the tail possible severe climate change scenarios Greenland Ice melt Changes in extremes Melting Of Permafrost Loss of Carbon sinks Gulf stream collapse? Marginal climates Glacial melt Sea level rise

5 Damages % loss in GDP per capita Baseline Climate, market impacts + risk of catastrophe High Climate, market impacts + risk of catastrophe High Climate, market impacts + risk of catastrophe + non-market impacts

6 Emissions Paths to Stabilisation Global Emissions (GtCO 2 e/yr) ppm CO 2 e 550ppm CO 2 e Business as Usual

7 Global Emissions by Sector reduce demand; improve efficiency; use lower-carbon technologies; tackle non-energy emissions.

8 Mitigation demands a strong policy framework Key Recommendations: Establish a carbon price

9 Potential Emissions Markets from Power and Industrial Sectors Million tonnes CO 2 emissions, Total emissions from fossil fuels Emissions from power and industrial sectors (estimated) 0 European Union (25) United States of America China, India, Mexico, Brazil, South Africa (+5) G7 EU25, Jap, Aus, Can, USA OECD Top 20 Global emitters

10 Mitigation demands a strong policy framework Key recommendations: Establish a carbon price Increase technological research and development

11 The distribution of emission savings by technology Contributions to Carbon Abatement 2025 Efficiency CCS Nuclear Biofuels dchp Solar Wind Hydro Contributions to Carbon Abatement, 2050 Abatement 11 GtCO2 Efficiency CCS Nuclear Biofuels dchp Solar Wind Hydro Abatement 43 GtCO2

12 Mitigation demands a strong policy framework Key recommendations: Establish a carbon price Support technological development and research Remove the barriers to behavioural change

13 Removing the barriers to behavioural change Regulatory Measures Information Policies Financing Measures Shared Understanding

14 ADAPTATION IS INEVITABLE: The world is already locked into further temperature rise Adaptation is a critical part of the response to climate change BUT, IT IS NOT A SUBSTITUTE FOR MITIGATION: Not a cheap option Can only mute the impacts of climate change; there are limits to what it can achieve.

15 Adaptation: Scaling up Overseas Development Aid

16 CONCLUSION Action cheaper than inaction: 1% GDP v 5-20% GDP Delay means greater risks and higher costs Policies must be designed to reduce risk as much as possible Need all three policy responses: A carbon price Increased technological R&D Remove barriers to behavioural change And simultaneously address: Deforestation Adaptation Development

17 UK NEXT STEPS Existing international frameworks (UNFCC, G8, World Bank, APP) New UK climate legislation European Trading Scheme Phase II Energy White Paper Energy Technology Institute EU/US clean energy dialogue UK officials in California/New England this week

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