Definitional and Computational Issues with Entry-level Job Openings in Chicago

Transcription

1 Definitional and Computational Issues with Entry-level Job Openings in Chicago Paul Metaxatos Urban Transportation Center University of Illinois at Chicago 412 South Peoria Street, Suite 340 Chicago, IL Tel: Fax: Conference on Chicago Research and Public Policy The Changing Face of Metropolitan Chicago University of Chicago Gleacher Center May 13, 2004

2 Overview Introduction to the Problem Methodology Results Applications

3 Occupation Groups Occupation Groups Number of Occupations ALL E-L Management Occupations 34 0 Business & Financial Operations Occupations 30 0 Computer and Mathematical Occupations 24 0 Architecture and Engineering Occupations 45 0 Life, Physical, & Social Science Occupations 45 0 Community and Social Services Occupations 17 0 Legal Occupations 9 0 Education, Training, and Library Occupations 61 0 Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, and Media Occupations 41 3 Healthcare Practitioners & Technical Occupations 55 0 Healthcare Support Occupations 15 6 Protective Service Occupations 21 5 Food Preparation & Serving Related Occupations Building & Grounds Cleaning & Maintenance Occupations 10 7 Personal Care & Service Occupations Sales & Related Occupations 22 9 Office & Administrative Support Occupations Farming, Fishing, & Forestry Occupations Construction & Extraction Occupations Installation, Maintenance, & Repair Occupations 52 1 Production Occupations Transportation & Material Moving Occupations Total Source: BLS 2000 SOC Dictionary of Occupations

4 NIPC s Industry Categories Used in Employment Estimates Construction & Mining Manufacturing Transportation, Communication, Utilities, Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Finance, Insurance, & Real Estate Services & Miscellaneous Health Services Government Source: NIPC 1995

5 Estimation of Entry-level Job Openings Entry-level occupations (BLS SOC) I-O Crosswalk (BLS) E-L occupational openings by county (IDES) Zonal employment by industry (NIPC) Zonal entry-level job openings

6 I-O Conversion for Entry-level Employment Match up NIPC s industry categories and BLS s 2002 NAICS groups Determine Entry-level occupations Source: BLS 2000 SOC Dictionary of Occupations Compute national A=(α pq ) from industry-occupation crosswalk Source: BLS - National Employment Matrix Let * a pq Compute be the number of employees in industry p and occupation q a a p P q Q pq How? * pq =, * a pq q

7 I-O Conversion for Entry-level Employment (cont.) For each zone i compute number of employees in each industry n Source: NIPC 1995 v = ( v ), n= 1,, P i in For each zone i compute number of employees in each entry-level occupation n u = ( u ), n= 1,, Q, i in using industry-to-occupation conversion matrix A u = v i A, i I, A = ( a ) i i pq

8 Entry-level Job Openings Allocation to Zones Compute number of job openings (due to growth and to separation) for each entry-level occupation for each county c (c=cook, DuPage, Kane, Lake, McHenry, Will) growth separation nc nc nc r = r + r, n Qc, C Source: IDES Occupational Projections Compute probability that a given job in each entry-level occupation would be vacant s = r / e, n Q, c C nc nc nc Source for e nc : IDES Occupational Projections

9 Entry-level Job Openings Allocation to Zones (cont.) For each zone i and county c, compute entry-level job openings w = u is ic in nc, n Q, c C

10 Preliminary Entry-level Job Openings by County (Total: 54,000) Kane 5% Lake 8% McHenry 2% Will 4% DuPage 16% Cook 65%

11 Preliminary Entry-level Job Openings by Industry Group (Total: 54,000) Other Services 27% Government 4% Health Services 5% Construction & Mining 4% Manufacturing 6% Transportation Communication Utilities & Wholesale 8% Financial Services 2% Retail 44%

12 Preliminary Spatial Distribution of Entry-level Job Openings 1998 Distribution 2004 Distribution openings.ppt Distributional Differences

13 Applications Transit Planning Environmental Justice maps.ppt

14 Thank You Questions?